ELECTION NIGHT VIEWING GUIDE—SENATE EDITION
This memorandum provides readers with a guide to Election Night and identifies some of the races we will be keeping an eye on as returns come in. All poll closures are listed in EST. Races are ordered by likeliness to flip and are shaded blue or red to denote the party that currently holds the seat.
6 pm: polls begin to close in Indiana and Kentucky State Kentucky (Open)
Cook Safe R
IE Safe R
Sabato Safe R
DDHQ Likely R
Silver Safe R
7 pm: polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia, polls begin to close in Florida and New Hampshire We’ll be watching: Florida counts fast and should report 95 percent of its vote by 8:30 pm. GOP Sen. Ashley Moody should be reelected, but the margin here should be our first indication of how the night could go. Be careful not to read too much into Florida, however—in 2022 the Sunshine State darted right when other Senate races moved left. South Carolina emerged as a battleground state late in the cycle, and Senate Leadership Fund and Republican outside groups were forced to spend nearly $25 million here. South Carolina shattered its previous record for early voting during a midterm, so turnout could approach presidential levels. Georgia was supposed to be a marquee race, but Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff appears to have pulled away from GOP challenger Rep. Mike Collins and should cruise to reelection. Keep an eye on the numbers out of Loudoun County in Virginia—two years ago the Loudoun drop was one of the first signs that Kamala Harris was in deep trouble. State South Carolina (Graham) New Hampshire (Open) Florida (Moody) Georgia (Ossoff) Virginia (Warner)
Cook Lean R Lean D Likely R Likely D Safe D
IE Tilt R Tilt D Likely R Likely D Safe D
Sabato Lean R Likely D Likely R Likely D Safe D
DDHQ Lean R Likely D Likely R Likely D Safe D
Silver Lean R Safe D Likely R Safe D Safe D
7:30 pm: polls close in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia We’ll be watching: Nearly $440 million has been spent in Ohio, where Sen. Jon Husted faces a serious challenge from former Sen. Sherrod Brown. Brown is the only Democrat not named Barack Obama to win statewide in Ohio since 2006. Trump won here by 11.2 points. Remember that it’s hard—and unusual—for out-of-power parties to flip Senate seats that a President carried by double digits during the previous presidential election. This last WWW.CGAGROUP.COM |
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happened in 2010 and has occurred just five times since 1990. Mail and in-person early votes are counted in Ohio first, so Brown should lead at the beginning of the night before Election Day votes come in and vault Husted ahead. Cities come in late. Gov. Roy Cooper is a heavy favorite to flip North Carolina, which most thought would be the one of the most expensive races of the cycle but ended up attracting less outside money than Kansas. State North Carolina (Open) Ohio (Husted) West Virginia (Capito)
Cook Likely D Tossup Safe R
IE Lean D Tilt D Safe R
Sabato Likely D Lean D Safe R
DDHQ Likely D Tossup Safe R
Silver Safe D Lean D Safe R
8 pm: polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee; polls begin to close in Kansas, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Texas We’ll be watching: Republican-held Texas, Maine, and Kansas are tossup races that should help decide which party will control the Senate. In Texas, more than 50 percent should be reported by 8:30 pm, and 90 percent should be in by midnight. Kansas will be slower, and Maine—a ranked choice runoff state—reports slow and a winner may not be known for weeks. Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows said last month if a runoff is needed it probably wouldn’t occur until at least Nov. 13. Republicans have spent more than $186 million in Michigan, and the Wolverine State is their top pickup opportunity. Remember though—the last time the President’s party flipped a seat in a state that the party did not win in the most recent presidential election was back in 2002. State Texas (Open) Maine (Collins) Kansas (Marshall) Michigan (Open) Mississippi (Hyde-Smith) Delaware (Coons) Illinois (Open) Massachusetts (Markey) New Jersey (Booker) Rhode Island (Reed) Alabama (Open) Oklahoma (Open) Tennessee (Hagerty)
Cook Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Likely R Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe R Safe R Safe R
IE Tilt D Tossup Tossup Tilt D Likely R Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe R Safe R Safe R
Sabato Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely R Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe R Safe R Safe R
DDHQ Lean D Lean D Tossup Likely D Likely R Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe R Safe R Safe R
Silver Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Safe R Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe R Safe R Safe R
8:30 pm: polls close in Arkansas State Arkansas (Cotton)
Cook Safe R
IE Safe R
Sabato Safe R
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DDHQ Safe R
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Silver Safe R
9 pm: polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming We’ll be watching: Iowa, a Trump+13.2 state that has zoomed right over the last 15 years but is a tossup this cycle. The Hawkeye State reports quickly—75 percent should be in by 11 pm and 90 percent should be in by midnight. Democratic and Republican groups have spent a combined $229 million here. $71 million has been spent in Nebraska, where GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts faces a real challenge from Independent candidate Dan Osborn. Nebraska and Minnesota count much slower and if either race is close a call may not come until after 3 am. State Iowa (Open) Nebraska (Ricketts) Minnesota (Open) Louisiana (Open) Colorado (Hickenlooper) New Mexico (Lujan) South Dakota (Rounds) Wyoming (Open)
Cook Tossup Lean R Lean D Safe R Safe D Safe D Safe R Safe R
IE Tossup Tilt R Lean D Likely R Safe D Safe D Safe R Safe R
Sabato Lean R Lean R Likely D Lean R Safe D Safe D Safe R Safe R
DDHQ Tossup Lean R Likely D Likely R Safe D Safe D Safe R Safe R
Silver Tossup Lean R Likely D Likely R Safe D Safe D Safe R Safe R
10 pm: polls close in Montana, Nevada, and Utah; polls begin to close in Idaho and Oregon State Montana (Open)
Cook Safe R
IE Safe R
Sabato Safe R
DDHQ Likely R
Silver Likely R
Sabato Safe R Safe D
DDHQ Safe R Safe D
Silver Safe R Safe D
11 pm: polls close in California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington State Idaho (Risch) Oregon (Merkley)
Cook Safe R Safe D
IE Safe R Safe D
12 am: polls close in Alaska and Hawaii We’ll be watching: If Senate control hinges on Alaska, don’t stay up—it often takes weeks to call races here. First results are expected here around 12:45 am, but it will be midday Wednesday until 75-80 percent is reported. If a ranked choice runoff is needed, we should know the winner on Nov. 18. State Alaska (Sullivan)
Cook Tossup
IE Tossup
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Sabato Lean D
DDHQ Lean D
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Silver Tossup