Yield Summary 2023

YIELD SUMMARY 2023 The Good, The Bad & The Ugly CERES RURAL | CROP MANAGEMENT

CERES RURAL 2023 HARVEST RESULTS Some harsh frosts and the wettest March in over 40 years would define the results of the 2023 harvest.

The tables 1 & 2 below detail the yield data received from farms for the 2023 harvest. Also included is the number of crops to add context.

TABLE 1. 2022 CEREAL HARVEST RESULTS

TABLE 2. 2022 BREAK CROP HARVEST RESULTS

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FIGURE 1. CEREAL YIELDS 2021, 2022 & 2023 (T/HA)

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 WINTER 1ST WHEAT WHEAT (AV.)

2ND WHEAT

3RD WHEAT

SPRING WINTER SPRING WINTER SPRING WHEAT BARLEY BARLEY OATS OATS

2021

2022

RYE

2023

FIGURE 2. BREAK CROP YIELDS 2021 VS. 2022 (T/HA)

4.5 4.0

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 WINTER OSR

AHIFLOWER

LINSEED 2021

WINTER BEANS SPRING BEANS 2022

PEAS

2023

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WINTER WHEAT First Wheat – The bad ……

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The elephant in the room is the relative underperformance of the first wheats compared to second wheats.

This year’s survey totals wheat crops from 144 farms. Where identified by the respondent, this dataset includes 101 first wheat crops, 58 second wheat crops and 10 third/continuous wheats. The average wheat yield across all farms is 8.53t/ha – slightly down on 2022, with first wheats yielding 8.72 t/ha, the second wheat yielding a very close 8.64t/ha; this is 5% lower and 7% higher respectively than 2022. The third wheat yield of 6.67t/ha reduces the overall yield in this set of results.

So why did the first wheat underperform verses 2022? The first suggestion that comes to mind is – did the crop get all the nitrogen it would have normally received, and were the rates compromised due to the price of nitrogen? The second, and possibly a more regional issue, is the amount of grass weed in the crop. Some crops this year saw yield robbing levels of ryegrass, blackgrass and brome; the high head numbers produced per plant were far more competitive this spring than in other years. Yield maps and comments from combining support this and take the edge of some first wheat blocks, where in hindsight fields were possibly drilled too early given the conditions.

Another potential reason is that the high biomass first wheats we are producing are not finishing effectively when weather conditions are unfavourable. The huge surprise from harvest 2022 was just how good bushel weight was considering such little rainfall and consequent early finishing. This season saw late growth in June producing more grain sites. With the dull conditions, grain did not fill effectively and therefore yield potential was not realised. Possibly something to consider for next spring is how much to push wheats with nitrogen in the first pass – we must go earlier and with higher rates of nitrogen to mitigate drought.

While some first wheats underdelivered, second wheats were generally good – on or above expectation.

The June/July rains made nutrition and water available, helping to build yield. Many second wheat milling wheat crops have been under 12% protein due to this late growth and yield dilution.

When looking a variety specific performance, Crusoe yields were off their best, whilst Zyatt and Skyfall were more in line with long term performance. Extase yields were generally pleasing, but erratic in protein results.

Considering how wet and drawn-out harvest 2023 was, most varieties did well to keep their hagberg levels, with results generally only really succumbing towards the end of harvest.

Graham and Gleam were both solid and Champion’s lodging susceptibility was exposed in places on the lead up to harvest. Dawsum delivered good yields and grain quality, but the Septoria susceptibility was one of the season’s talking points.

Overall, the AHDB estimates only 13% of the national crop will meet full specification, with northern crops struggling more with bushel and hagberg.

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WINTER BARLEY The good! Harvest 2023 was back to a more conventional start date, although some straw was stubborn to ripen. Like 2022, it was a big relief to discover specific weights were generally marketable (64-68kg/hl)

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given the lack of July sunshine and higher levels of lodging/brackling than previous years. Straw volume had a big influence on harvester output and in some cases compromised yield.

In general, there is not too much difference between the yields of six row hybrid and the best two row feed varieties on farm – each has their place and can hold their own. The seed cost of hybrid influenced a slight move away from these varieties in 2023, but had it been a dry spring, the yield uplift would have justified the extra investment.

The Ceres Rural survey of 60 winter barley crops suggests another high yielding year – possibly the warmer winter affecting the earlier crops less. Average yield of mostly feed varieties was 8t/ha; this is within 1% of last year’s yield, significantly higher than the 7.0t/ha suggested by the AHDB, and within 0.5t/ha of this year’s wheat average.

Unlike wheat, barley yield is driven by ear number which makes the contribution from tillers more significant. In some cases, such as on very light land or heavy land that was wet for long periods in the spring, crops lost too many tillers or were slow to get growing. This compromised yield. For freer draining land that had its nitrogen in good time, the crop yielded well and is proving to be a consistent performer.

Malting quality has generally been good. High germinations and fairly low grain nitrogen is reflective of the growing conditions of the season.

WINTER BEANS Part of the bad for 2023. So much so, that many growers have dropped winter beans for 2024, favouring more cereals, alternative break crops or stewardship/SFI options. The average yield from 65 winter bean

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crops in 2023 was 19% down on 2022, at 2.92t/ha. Although prices are not low this year, bean crops are unlikely to make a positive financial contribution to the farm budget at these yields.

Early emerging crops were caught by the early/mid-December frosts, randomly killing plants within the emerged stand. Some crops were protected by snow at the time but repeated frosts in January and February meant the crop needed a good March and April for depleted plant stands to make up growth and to tiller. Later emerging crops fared better, with less exposure to frost and plant loss.

Despite concerns caused by early and significant chocolate spot infections, crops looked very well as they started flowering. Flowering was slow, but early pod set was reasonable. However, it felt like the crop could have flowered for longer, as the number of flowers per plant appeared low. Consequently, later pod set suffered and overall numbers per plant were low. Clearly climatic conditions did not help either. There was discussion at the time about the low numbers of insects and pollinators in the crop, but even where growers had beehives local to the fields, pollination, and ultimately pod set, appeared to suffer. Low numbers of pods per plant, low numbers of seeds per pod and possibly small seed, all combined to dismal performance for a large proportion of crops. Hopefully PGRO will dissect the season in the winter meetings and confirm what is happening in the crop.

2023 was a bad year for beans, but it feels like recent spring conditions are perpetuating a slide in performance that goes beyond a growers influence and control. For all the good beans do to facilitate a first wheat, when growers comment they got out of the combine to check there wasn’t anything open – is it time to consider other options?

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OILSEED RAPE The ugly…. Interestingly the 2023 yield survey contained 56 crops of winter rape, down from 61 in 2022.

It≈ felt like plantings for the 2023 crop should be higher than 2022 given the price of the crop, but the survey doesn’t take into account the proportion of the crop that failed, or was replanted with an alternative crop. Furthermore, the survey does not show the difference in the area of crop that was taken to harvest, compared to what was actually cut with the combine. Depending on which of these two figures is used, there will be a large variance in yield per hectare. These are factors for us to consider recording in the years to come, to ensure we see the complete picture.

In general, there were favourable conditions to get rape established in autumn 2022, some crops flourished getting away from the adult cabbage stem flea beetle feeding pressure while some struggled with dry seedbed conditions, resulting in patchy crops from the start. Companion crops appeared to do their job of hiding the crop from the adults, but disappointingly early emerged crops still suffered from large larvae infestation. In the East, the frosts post-Christmas drove the larvae into the stems, but it was the February frosts which appeared to do the most damage. Stems that were already very vulnerable from larvae feeding and pigeon damage were hit very hard by the weather and some failed to recover.

This meant farmers were still losing crops as late as April when the majority of variable cost expenditure (as much as £165/ha) had already been incurred. Unlike harvest 2022 where the seed was getting too dry, harvest 2023 was intermittent as growers waited for crops to ripen. In the survey, the 2023 crop averaged 2.95t/ha, 11% down on harvest 2022.

A significant key to achieving a successful rape crop is soil fertility and quality – not nitrogen rates. A resilient soil with biology and organic matter levels that have been built up over a number of seasons, seems to help the crop get away well in the autumn and establish large canopies that resume spring growth earlier in the season. These healthy crops withstand larval feeding pressure much better. Using hybrid seed, although an expensive investment at the start of the season, are also showing much more resilience to the multiple threats facing the crop.

WINTER OATS Crops consistently yielded on par with last year, averaging 6.5t/ha. With delays to harvest and many crops coming fit at once, oats sometimes were left waiting in favour of higher value or drier crops. Some crops ≈ had lodged quite badly by the time they were cut, with bushel weight generally being a casualty of the season.

SPRING OATS There were 32 crops of spring oats in the survey compared to just 12 crops of winter oats. Numbers were slightly up on last year, presumably in place of dwindling bean and oilseed rape area. Consistent

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yield and quality commensurate with harvesting condition.

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SPRING BARLEY Over the 57 crops, the average yield was 5.93t/ha, which feels disappointing but is only 2% down on 2022 (6.07t/ha – 62 crops). This is predominantly a reflection of the wet conditions post planting of the

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early drilled crop and the low potential of late planted crops that were drilled in April. The crop was slow to pull together in the early spring and then raced to harvest where it was in the queue for cutting along with other fit and more profitable crops. Where the crop was standing at harvest, germination was maintained but was compromised where lodging occurred. In general, specific weights have been good, grain nitrogen levels on the early planted crops have been low, and there were some screening issues on the lighter soils. Generally, Ergot levels were lower than previous years.

Harvester losses were high for some, which will justify a review of growth regulation and nitrogen rates over the winter. Where crops achieved the specification, the premium and income from straw sales still make the crop one of the most profitable spring crops.

SPRING WHEAT A reasonable year for spring wheat – there are only 12 crops in the survey this year, down from 16 in 2022. An average yield of 4.7t/ha was achieved, which is a 9% increase on 2022. Spring wheat tends to

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be the poor relation to spring barley as it lacks the vigorous growth pattern which helps keep the crop consistent through periods of wet and dry conditions. Spring wheat tends to be grown where it fits the storage and can therefore be grown as a reaction to a compromised spring or winter. This also affects its performance when it is not a planned part of the rotation. Where nitrogen was appropriately applied – grain proteins have been reasonable and in general ergot levels, like in spring barley, were lower than previous years.

SPRING PEAS Sharing the same fate as spring beans, peas had a slow start to the spring, wet end to the season and suffered from a flowering period that seemed to last just a few days. Blues, whites and marrowfats alike

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all appeared to flower and set pod over a very short period, the results of which were a low pod number per plant and low seed number per pod. A combined average pea yield (inc. marrowfats) of 2.33t/ha was 20% down on the 2022 yield.

Of the pulses, peas feel like they are the best crop to persevere with if soil type permits. Blue peas can yield and produce a worthwhile margin, while marrowfat pea success is all about the price and harvest quality. It feels like the grower still has more influence on the profitability of peas over beans.

SPRING BEANS Previous seasons had lowered the expectation for this crop, so the relative performance of spring beans at 3.09 t/ha was

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pleasing at a very similar level to 2022. It feels we set the crop up well with a good understanding about plant number and soil preparation, but ultimately the fate of the crop is in the hands of the weather at flowering and pod set.

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