Farming Update July 2026

FARMING UPDATE JULY 2026

JULY 2026

INTRODUCTION Welcome to the Ceres Rural Farming Update, a publication that provides independent insights on agricultural issues, reports on policy, grant and administrative updates and key market information. To discuss any of the topics raised, please contact one of the team.

It’s that time of year again – harvest. Time to start submitting your yield data to help benchmark performance across the region and country.

By sharing your data, you’ll: Gain insights into national and regional harvest trends Identify areas for improvement on your farm Be entered into a prize draw to win a free Ceres AgriStrategy Conference ticket!

Submitting your data is quick, easy, and secure. Just follow the link below to complete the online form. You can even update your submission as the harvest progresses – simply revisit the form and add more data.

Submit your data

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IN THE FIELD: EAST Crops across the East of England have continued to progress rapidly with the hot, dry conditions arriving earlier than many experienced last year, placing crops under moisture stress during key growth stages.

Rainfall during June was much needed and helped maintain yield potential in many situations. However, the benefits were variable, and for crops that had already suffered prolonged drought stress, the rain was often too little too late to fully recover lost yield potential. In contrast, spring crops responded particularly well to the return of moisture, with many showing a marked improvement following the June rainfall.

WINTER CEREALS Winter barley harvest is already underway across the East of England, while winter wheat crops continue to ripen rapidly ahead of what is expected to be an earlier-thanaverage harvest.

The excellent establishment conditions last autumn have undoubtedly helped winter cereals withstand the challenges of a dry spring.

Strong root systems have enabled crops to access moisture from deeper within the soil profile, particularly on heavier land, helping plant growth through extended periods of drought. However, the prolonged spell of warm, dry weather has inevitably reduced yield potential in many areas, especially on lighter soils where moisture reserves were quickly depleted.

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Yield expectations remain variable, with results likely to depend heavily on soil type and local rainfall patterns. As harvest progresses, attention will increasingly turn to grain quality. In winter wheat, lower yields may lead to higher grain protein concentrations, potentially increasing the proportion of crops achieving milling specification. However, the prolonged dry conditions slowed fertiliser uptake, which may limit the expected uplift in protein levels where nitrogen has not been fully utilised by the crop. As a result, grain quality could be variable.

SPRING CEREALS Spring crops have arguably been the biggest beneficiaries of the June rainfall. After coming under increasing pressure from the dry spring, many crops responded quickly once moisture became available. Spring barley, in particular, has recovered well and is now progressing rapidly towards harvest.

The rain arrived at a critical stage, helping to support grain fill and preserve yield potential, while the subsequent warm weather has accelerated crop development and ripening. Although yields are still expected to be below early-season expectations in some areas, the rainfall significantly improved crop prospects and helped limit the impact of the prolonged dry conditions.

BEANS Chocolate spot remained the key disease to monitor. Whilst many crops received timely fungicide applications, the humid conditions experienced during periods of June have increased pressure in some areas, particularly where canopies are thick and lush.

Bruchid beetle pressure has been variable.

Crops should have been monitored carefully throughout flowering, particularly during conditions above 20°C. As pod set progresses, the risk of damage will begin to decline, although seed quality remains an important consideration for those targeting premium markets.

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JULY 2026

SUGAR BEET

OILSEED RAPE (OSR)

Sugar beet crops have shown a mixed picture across the region this season. Early drilled crops established into good seedbeds with adequate moisture have performed well and are now carrying strong canopies. On the contrary, some crops on lighter chalk soils struggled, with establishment levels as low as 40% where seed remained dormant in dry seedbeds and failed to chit.

This year’s crop has demonstrated what can be achieved when establishment conditions align. Many crops achieved strong establishment, good spring growth and uniform flowering corner-to-corner, with generally lower cabbage stem flea beetle (CSFB) pressure than has been experienced in recent years.

Recent rainfall triggered a second flush of emergence in many of these fields, resulting in uneven crops with late-emerging plants at the 4-6 leaf stage, while betterestablished crops had already met between the rows by the end of June. Although the rain has significantly improved crop prospects, the impact of these variable plant populations on final yield remains uncertain.

Attention is now turning to protecting yield potential through the remainder of the season. Growers should monitor crops closely for foliar diseases, particularly cercospora and rust, and ensure fungicides are applied promptly where thresholds are reached to maintain green leaf area and maximise sugar production.

The challenge now is whether growers are willing to increase area again. Gross margin projections suggest that, despite the general ongoing challenge of CSFB, OSR remains one of the more financially attractive break crop options available for 2027. History suggests that when OSR area expands, CSFB pressure often follows.

Therefore, while the economics are attractive, successful growers are likely to be those who continue to treat establishment as the most critical stage of the crop, selecting suitable fields, drilling into moisture, good seed-to-soil contact and choosing varieties with the vigour needed to get away quickly in the autumn. Where conditions are not right, waiting for meaningful rainfall may be the better option than forcing a crop into dry ground.

However, no approach is risk-free, and decisions should be made field by field, considering soil type, moisture, previous cropping, local CSFB history and the ability of the crop to establish quickly.

If OSR is not on your agenda for next season, have you thought about Linseed or Mustard?

Dan Matthews discusses alternative crops for diversifying rotations for profitability and resilience here, including wider nutritional oil crops, food and health crops, and specialist contract crops.

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IN THE FIELD: WEST Combines will soon be rolling out with the earliest of winter barleys, ripe and fit to cut imminently. Oilseed rape crops in the area have either been desiccated or will be shortly where the green pods are just lingering slightly, on heavier ground.

Though for some, combines have been spotted out in the field in the last day or so.

The vast majority of oilseed rape crops have some real potential and it will be interesting to see what the yield results show us. This will certainly be a crop grown again this autumn but bear in mind that although flea beetle pressure has been low this year, it may not be the same story this autumn.

Adequate moisture, nutrition and vigour of the crop are the key principles we need for .

good establishment – this will be the difference between success and failure.

Winter wheats and even spring barleys are ripening very quickly with some whole crop wheats already being cut. It may well be one of the earliest harvests some of you may remember for a long time. There are still good hopes for wheat crops in the area, but a little more rain and less heat may have .

just given us another week or so of grain filling. Foliar N of milling wheats will be getting too late now but there may still be some late wheats which will benefit from 20-40kg of N to reach protein specs.

Useful jobs to undertake pre-harvest are noting down where any unwanted grassweeds are present and mapping these out ready to strategize for next season.

Cleaning and preparation of grain stores is crucial for storage hygiene with smoke bombs and K-obiol popular choices of products to use. And finally, farm machinery hygiene is hugely important for reducing the grassweed spread, so make sure to clean kit properly to minimise the risk.

Maize is enjoying the recent heat and sunlight – growing rapidly after a rather slow start due to low temperatures earlier in the season. As for silage, first and second .

cuts have been promising but due to the lack of rain, third cuts are virtually nonexistent and the question is whether to apply nitrogen or not. Generally, as there is no rain in the forecast, it’s not advisable to apply nitrogen right now. On the other hand, it has been a brilliant time for making hay with another window of opportunity coming up, relatively stress-free.

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JULY 2026

POST-HARVEST STRATEGY As harvest progresses, attention will soon turn to post-harvest cultivations and autumn drilling. With soil moisture still limited in many areas, growers looking to encourage a grassweed chit may need to be patient, as dry seedbeds are unlikely to provide a strong flush. Establishing cover crops and oilseed rape could also prove challenging until further rainfall arrives, although they remain an important tool for improving soil health and resilience. If dry conditions persist, preserving moisture through shallow, targeted cultivations will be key, either that or delaying primary cultivations altogether. What remains true is the ability to remain as flexible as possible with establishment plans.

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EL NIÑO PRECIPITATION IMPACTS The developing El Nino is expected to kick in, in full force, later this year with greater impacts than previously seen. El Nino is a natural climate pattern where warm water builds up in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This shifts global atmospheric circulation and tends to raise global temperatures, often contributing to recordbreaking heat years – partly explaining what we’ve seen so far this spring/summer.

Looking into autumn however, El Nino could bring a more mild and wet winter, providing continued difficult drilling conditions for those late starters or early crop establishment following what could be a dry summer right through.

For more information on this, please visit this article

by Ceres Research which explains these natural cycles in greater depth and sets out what growers may face in 2027.

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POLICY & BUSINESS NEWS Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) opened with £240 million budget and tighter scheme structure Defra confirmed that the new Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI26) would open in two application windows, with a total annual budget of £240 million available for new agreements. The first application window opened on the 30th June 2026 for smaller farms and businesses (up to 50 ha) without an existing ELM revenue agreement and has been allocated £60 million. The scheme will close when the budget has been ‘fully allocated or after two months, whichever comes first’. Currently (07/07/26), we have been told that 50% of the Window one budget has been allocated.

Window two is planned for September, which again will close when the budget is allocated or by March 2027 – whatever is soonest. Window one will close before Window two opens and any unused funding from the first window will roll into the second window.

The most notable change is the fact that there is a £100k limit per SBI (each SBI must have at least 3 ha associated with it) on applications and you are no longer able to increase the area of rotational actions within SFI 2026 agreements. The new offer is limited to 71 actions – management payments for new SFI agreements have been removed, along with other popular actions such as payments for soil testing and species-rich grassland (endorsed action). Other notable changes include CIPM4 (no insecticide) which is no longer permissible on a Maize crop, and AHW9 (unharvested cereal headland) where the .

payment rate remains unchanged (£1072/ha) but there is a new restriction of 24m maximum width for headlands and/or strips.

Farmers with agreements due to expire by the end of February 2027 may be eligible to apply for a replacement agreement through the second SFI 2026 application window, expected in September 2026. This includes a range of existing agreement types, including SFI 2023, Countryside Stewardship Mid Tier, legacy Countryside Stewardship Higher Tier and Higher Level Stewardship agreements.

Payment rate decreases affect: CNUM3: legume fallow – now £532/ha, was £593/ha CSAM3: herbal leys – now £224/ha, was £382/ha CAHL2: winter bird food – now £648/ha, was £853/ha.

For further information on changes and easy wins, please read Rosie Uden’s article here.

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JULY 2026

CAPITAL GRANTS Capital Grants guidance was published at the end of May, with the scheme expected to open towards the end of this month. A further £75 million is available compared with 2025, taking the total fund to £225 million.

Financial limits remain unchanged across the four categories, with caps of £25,000 for water quality, air quality and natural flood management, and £35,000 for boundaries, trees and orchards. The scheme is expected to be oversubscribed and may only be available for a short period, so businesses should plan ahead and be ready to apply as soon as the window opens. It is advisable to get your evidence together ahead of time, so you are ready to apply when the application window opens. The list of evidence required can be found here.

COUNTRYSIDE STEWARDSHIP SCHEME HIGHER-TIER (CSHT) Following the 'invited-only' status of applicants so far this year, it has been announced that later this summer, farmers and land managers will be able to begin the application process by submitting an Expression of Interest for agroforestry, woodland, and new single-focus agreements. At least £50 million will be available for new CSHT agreements this year.

EU-UK DYNAMIC ALIGNMENT The continued UK–EU discussions on a new Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement are bringing “dynamic alignment” into sharp focus, with proposals that could see the UK match EU plant health and pesticide rules from July 2027. A summit between the UK and EU is expected later this month (22nd July, delayed slightly from the earlier suggestion of a 13th July Summit) to discuss implementation details of this alignment.

Initial guidance from the Government has been shared, outlining how to prepare your business ahead of such deal, which you can view here.

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CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM (CBAM) Despite the industry holding firm on the fact that a potential CBAM will increase fertiliser costs significantly for an already challenged farming industry in terms of profitability, the current direction of Government is that the UK CBAM is not being abandoned or postponed; implementation is due for the 1st January 2027, with 2026 focused on final rules and business readiness.

The Government released a policy summary earlier in the year, which details the emerging compliance framework. The document currently confirms that the first CBAM return/payment, which will fall to the UK fertiliser importer, is due by 31st May 2028. Therefore, the additional fertiliser tax will more than likely be felt by growers from the beginning of 2027, if not creeping in before.

ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT OF PRACTICES AND TECHNOLOGIES (ADOPT) ADOPT is a Defra funded programme, delivered through Innovate UK, that supports farmer-led innovation projects to test and demonstrate new technologies, practices and approaches on farm. The aim is to generate practical evidence that helps farmers improve productivity, resilience, sustainability and progress towards net zero. Farmers can apply for funding between £50k and £200k (recently increased from a max of £100k) with projects running up to 24 months.

Ceres Research is an official Project Facilitator and can support with ideas and applications. We currently have a list of projects that we are looking to submit and are therefore eager to have more farmers on board. Please visit here to see a list of projects we are going to submit and reach out if you are interested to be involved in any. Additionally, please get in touch if you have an idea or need support to gain access to this funding.

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JULY 2026

VITICULTURE With the first-round of 2026 applications opening under the SFI, the preliminary window is open to businesses under 50 ha, giving an opportunity for viticulture businesses to benefit from this new rule.

Like others, these agreements will also be capped at £100k per business, with options such as (AHL2) winter bird food and (ALH3) grass field corners restricted to 25% of the total eligible land area, although this is unlikely to present challenges for businesses with a high percentage of permanent crops planted. Applications will remain open only whilst funding allows, so it is crucial that businesses are proactive and ready to apply as soon as possible.

Similarly, with Capital Grants likely to reopen soon, items such as hedgerow planting, concrete yard renewals and fencing could receive partial funding under the scheme. Whilst Capital Grant funding is not competitive per se, it is again unclear how long the application window will remain open, and therefore prior planning is required to ensure your business is at the top of the list.

If you would like more information on how SFI and Capital Grants can be utilised by your business, please contact: Beth Speakman beth.speakman@ceresrural.co.uk 07592 041601 10

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LIVESTOCK There are new rules in Wales regarding Bovine Viral Diarrhoea (BVD) whereby Welsh farmers are legally obliged to carry out an annual screening test and must hold a BVD Negative status before movement of cattle. The result of the test will be valid for 60 days before animals are sold. Cattle of unknown BVD status moving onto a Welsh holding from outside Wales must be tested within 20 days of arrival. It is worth noting that there are similar discussions taking place in England – it is likely that a compulsory testing scheme will eventually be introduced in England too.

Unlike last year, where blue tongue was mainly concentrated in the East, this year it is already established in the West and farmers are encouraged to vaccinate against the disease. Bovine tuberculosis is still variable with reactors being found on several holdings and is still an ongoing battle. However, there is a new badger vaccination programme which has recently been rolled out in Shropshire, Worcestershire and Oxfordshire. The government initiative will be delivered by Farmcare Solutions delivering vaccinations on behalf of landowners and farmers.

Additional areas will be added each year as the project expands. Practical details including how to engage with the service and how it will operate at a farm level will likely influence the uptake of this initiative.

The Animal Health & Welfare Review is a funded annual vet visit available to eligible livestock keepers in England. Following this, you can choose to undertake an Endemic Disease Follow-up, a second funded visit.

This Government blog details further information and how to apply.

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ADVERTISMENT FEATURE

WHY PADEL IN A BARN CAN MAKE SO MUCH SENSE

A

wise man once said ‘booking a padel court after work is like trying to get tickets to the oasis reunion tour’ . many places in the UK, that isn’t far off. and in

Padel is exploding right now. As of May 2026, the LTA confirmed there were now 1 million people playing padel and over 1,800 courts across the UK. But this is slightly misleading. Padel players across the UK are having very different experiences depending on where they live.

IN MAJOR CITIES, PADEL IS BOOMING Take Manchester, if you live in the centre, you can reach more than 35 courts across multiple venues within a 10-minute drive.

Now compare that to rural areas, where players often travel 30 minutes or more just to find their nearest court. Many of which are still outdoors and at the mercy of the British weather!

Padel is being prioritised in the cities, but out of town communities are being left behind.

THIS IS WHERE FARM BARNS COME IN Across the country, farm owners are beginning to partner with padel operators to transform underused agricultural buildings into vibrant, covered padel clubs.

Barns can naturally offer the space, height, and structure needed for indoor courts, while their locations bring padel closer to underserved, more rural communities.

Through partnership with a padel operator, farm owners gain a steady, long-term income stream. While operators bring a premium padel experience to the local community.

WHAT IS PADEL?

A suitable padel barn for two courts would have the following elements:

Padel blends elements of tennis and squash and has long been a staple in Spain, where it’s the second most-played sport.

A minimum of roughly 600m² (e.g. 26x23m or 13x46m) Existing barn no longer in use but in good condition At least 6.5m at eaves, ideally above 9.5m at the apex

Its appeal lies in its accessibility.

It’s easy to pick up, less physically demanding, and highly social!

GET IN TOUCH If you have a barn that may be suitable, get in touch with Rohan at Rebound Padel: rohan@reboundpadel.co.uk

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MARKET UPDATE Arable markets are broadly steady compared with a year ago, but underneath the headline figures there are signs of diverging sentiment. Feed wheat has strengthened, pointing to firmer nearby demand and tighter old-crop availability, while milling wheat remains relatively stable. The malting premium offered for November delivery suggests the market is factoring in some uncertainty around harvest quality and protein levels, creating the potential for stronger premiums for quality milling wheat later in the season.

Oilseed rape has remained one of the stronger commodities, although confidence in further price gains is limited. Recent declines in new-crop rapeseed values reflect weakness in crude oil markets following easing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. While vegetable oil demand remains supported by developments such as Indonesia's move to B50 biodiesel, as AHDB reports. From 1st July, 50% palm oil-based biodiesel will be blended with 50% .

ARABLE (£/t) YEAR AGO

conventional diesel to align with Indonesia’s plans to increase biodiesel content in response to oil supply disruptions globally.

The market remains highly sensitive to energy prices and global political events.

Bean markets have shown some recovery, with values returning to around £235/t, although still some way below previous highs. Crop prospects remain mixed due to early season disease pressure and final profitability will depend heavily on harvest performance and market demand through the autumn.

Weather risks across Europe, particularly dry weather and high heat affecting maize production, continue to offer some support to grain prices, while global demand has remained reasonably resilient; all things considered. However, harvest pressure is beginning to emerge across parts of Europe, limiting upward price movement.

Currency fluctuations, geopolitical developments and energy markets are likely to remain the key drivers of volatility over the coming weeks, with traders balancing weather concerns against the prospect of increasing harvest supplies.

JUNE 2026

NOVEMBER 2026

MILLING WHEAT

£188

£185

£193

FEED WHEAT

£160

£180

£170

FEED BARLEY

£145

£145

£155

MALTING PREMIUM

£20

£18

£25

OILSEED RAPE

£410

£445

£440

BEANS

£210

£235

£230

Source: Merchant North Herts ex. farm bids (as of 24th June 2026)

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JULY 2026

FARMLAND MARKET UPDATE MID-YEAR 2026: SUPPLY CATCHES UP, DEMAND TURNS SELECTIVE If there is one defining feature of the first half of 2026, it has been the timing of supply coming to the market. After a slow start, Q2 brought a late flurry of farms to the market, largely down to the wet weather and the geopolitical uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, both of which caused vendors to delay their spring launches. With that backlog now released, overall levels of supply have caught up and sit broadly in line with where we were this time last year.

LOOKING AHEAD The second half of 2026 promises to be telling. With the farms we are currently marketing now under offer, we are working towards getting these over the line before turning to our September launches.

The key theme we have seen this year, whether acting for buyers or sellers, is that the successful transactions are almost without exception those where a realistic guide has been set, the sale is well prepared, and a well-considered marketing strategy is in place.

With a growing number of discussions for farms now taking place off market, making yourself known to those active in your local market has never been more important. If you are contemplating a sale or are looking to buy, please do get in touch with one of our farm agency team to discuss, we would be delighted to hear from you.

Demand, by contrast, has been notably varied – and the theme of polarisation we flagged in March has, if anything, sharpened. What we mean by that is a widening gap in the values achieved per acre between the very best farms and more secondary holdings or blocks of bare land.

Appetite remains for well-equipped commercial farms, and for residential farms in popular, accessible or commutable locations that offer the complete package.

The picture is very different for more secondary holdings and outlying blocks of bare arable land, where a vendor is far more beholden to their local market. Land whose appeal is purely agricultural – lacking a commercial or strategic angle, and in locations where rollover and high net worth buyers are more scarce – is under the most scrutiny of all.

Under Offer: Crippings Farm, Leaden Roding

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HEALTH & SAFETY The recent heatwaves and news headlines highlight the growing importance of managing heat stress on farms, particularly as hotter summers become the norm. High temperatures increase the risk of dehydration, fatigue, impaired concentration and accidents, especially when operating machinery. Consider these steps to manage the heat risk: 1.Encourage regular rest breaks, provide access to shaded areas, and ensure workers stay hydrated throughout the day rather than waiting until they feel thirsty.

2.Air-conditioned cabs can improve comfort but do not eliminate the risks of dehydration and fatigue during long working hours.

3.Monitor teams for signs of heat stress, manage workloads carefully, and rotate tasks where possible.

4.Where practical, schedule the most physically demanding work during cooler parts of the day and avoid peak afternoon temperatures.

“As harvest gets under way for many, heat management should be treated as a core health and safety consideration to protect both worker wellbeing and operational performance” ROBERT GAZELY, CERES RURAL PARTNER, HEALTH & SAFETY EXPERT

If you haven’t booked in your pre-harvest health and safety briefing – do get in touch with Robert as soon as possible: robert.gazely@ceresrural.co.uk 07592 041617

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JULY 2026

WANT TO KNOW MORE?

AGRISTRATEGY CONFERENCE

FARMING UPDATE PLUS

Following the success of last year’s sell-out event, Ceres Group are proud to host the Ceres AgriStrategy Conference 2026.

Ceres Research Members have full access to the Farming Update ‘Plus’. A publication that takes a deeper dive into some of the topics covered in the Ceres Rural Farming Update.

Given the timeliness of autumn considerations, this Plus edition focuses on Farming without Flufenacet. Considering the regulatory pressure on the UK’s dynamic alignment with the EU, we take a deep dive into what scenarios could happen with Flufenacet use in the UK, what blackgrass control looks like without it, and what new chemistry and pipeline products could offer other opportunities for growers.

Become a Ceres Research Member today to access this ‘Plus’ publication, as well as many other insights and tools to help you and your business. Remember, existing Ceres Rural Agronomy clients get 25% off the membership. Speak to Danni, Research and Knowledge Exchange Assistant, for further information.

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Designed for progressive farmers, agronomists and agricultural leaders, the conference provides an opportunity to take stock of the past year and look ahead with clarity and confidence.

The day brings together expert speakers, practical insights and evidence-led discussion to support strategic planning.

We’re excited to build on the momentum of last year, with new features designed to make this year’s conference even more valuable and engaging for attendees.

Join industry peers for a focused day of learning, discussion and connection, aimed at supporting resilient, informed and forward-thinking agri-businesses. BASIS and NRoSO points will be available.

Ceres Research Members receive a further 50% off the delegate ticket price. Click here to view the full agenda or buy your tickets.

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GET IN TOUCH Want to discuss any of the topics in this issue of the Farming Update? Contact the project leaders, Annis Cousins, Peter Mason, Will Spurdens or Dr Dannielle Robb.

ANNIS COUSINS

DR DANNIELLE ROBB

FARMING CONSULTANT

RESEARCH & KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE ASSISTANT

annis.cousins@ceresrural.co.uk 07511 878 687

dannielle.robb@ceresresearch.com 07825 928 594

PETER MASON

WILL SPURDENS

PARTNER

ASSOCIATE

peter.mason@ceresproperty.co.uk 07756 289 597

will.spurdens@ceresrural.co.uk 07823 872 391

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