2022 Mid-Year Report - Randy Mulchi

2022 Mid-Year Update

Market Trends Report

i'm Here To Guide you Randy Mulchi | REALTOR® Coldwell Banker Advantage (434) 738-8642 randymulchi@cbadvantage.com

Triad Average home Prices year to date comparison (June 2022)

surry county

Avg Sales Price: +/- From 2021:

$219,564 +4.2%

kernersville

Avg Sales Price: +/- From 2021:

$352,439 +28.8% greensboro

Winston-Salem

Avg Sales Price: +/- From 2021:

Avg Sales Price:

$307,506 +13.2%

+/- From 2021:

$325,435 +15.4%

Alamance County

Avg Sales Price: +/- From 2021:

$312,438 +21.4%

high point

Avg Sales Price: +/- From 2021:

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$260,476 +19.8%

*Data Source: Triad MLS

Triangle average home prices year to date comparison (june 2022)

Northern Triangle

Avg Sales Price: +/- From 2021:

$328,890 +18.9%

durham Avg Sales Price: +/- From 2021:

$445,489 +21.4%

wake forest Avg Sales Price: +/- From 2021:

$592,097 +27.6%

chapel hill/ Carrboro

Avg Sales Price: +/- From 2021:

$667,818 +23%

raleigh cary/Apex/ morrisville

Avg Sales Price:

Avg Sales Price:

+/- From 2021:

+/- From 2021:

$638,516 +32%

$521,940 +18.9%

Johnston County

Avg Sales Price: Fuquay Varina \ Holly Springs

Avg Sales Price: +/- From 2021:

*Data Source: Triangle MLS

+/- From 2021:

$364,629 +26.3%

$513,038 +26.8%

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Market overview Written by Rick Gregory

The Triangle and Triad real estate markets remain robust. While volatility in the stock/bond markets, rising mortgage interest rates and overall inflationary environment have clearly tempered the frenzied activity that characterized both Triad and Triangle markets for all of 2021 and early 2022, the real estate market thus far has remained a sellers’ market driven by a low overall number of homes available for sale.

Specifically, in the Triangle, the average sales price has now achieved $408,250 which is up 21.4% when compared to the first 5 months of 2021. Year to date (through the end of May) closed sales are down 2.2% and new listings are down 2.1% when compared to the same time frame of 2021.1 The Triad has seen similar results. The average sales price for the first 5 months achieved $269,900 which is up 22.7% when compared to 2021, closed sales were down 3.7% and new listings increased by 1%. 2

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1. Source: Triangle MLS 2. Source: Triad MLS

Market Predictions

NAR PRedictions

13%

Total Sales 2022

7%

Home Prices 2022

1%

Total Sales 2023

4%

Home Prices 2023

*Data Source: Chief NAR Economosit Dr. Lawerence Yun Webinar: https://vid.us/ad2x34

What may be of more interest for most of us though is what’s in store for the remainder of 2022.

While no one knows exactly what will happen, we can review several factors that provide us with a strong sense of what may likely happen. Let’s begin with the numbers that are a very broad view of what our markets will experience – national forecasts. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) forecasts and reforecasts each month their expectations for the year and beyond. As of early June, and based on certain national trends (including employment levels, home affordability indices, and known macro-economic conditions) NAR believes: Total sales (in units) for 2022 will be down 13% and home prices will rise 7% when compared to 2021 And for 2023, the early projections are sales (in units) will be down 1% from 2022 and home prices will be up 4%. The slowing rate of decline (13% vs 1%) is based on NAR’s research showing an increase in new home building which will begin to help offset the home inventory shortage the nation has been experiencing.

Closer to home - while our ‘averages’ may be different; we believe the direction of our local markets will follow similar trends.

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housing affordability And Its impact Our inventory levels (homes available for sale), as measured by ‘Days on Market’, remain at or close to single digits which is well off where our home inventory levels should be.

And while new building permits are slightly on the rise in each of our markets, our overall low home inventory levels will continue to drive prices higher – even though the rate of price increase will likely dramatically slow.

But what about housing affordability and its impact? Mortgage interest rates have nearly doubled in the past year (just below 6% as of this writing). These rising mortgage interest rates do dramatically impact housing affordability. Zillow produced a housing affordability study in May of 2022. 1

Within that study, Zillow found data available from April showing mortgage monthly payments taking about 28% of homeowner’s monthly income – close to the 30% threshold…beyond which is considered a cost burden.

While affordability can be an issue for our markets, we don’t see home values falling.

Slowing – yes. Falling – no. And Why? Because both the Triad and Triangle remain some of the most attractive marketplaces to companies and people in America. Many of us have read the headlines of firms like Toyota, Apple, Meta, Boom Supersonic, UPS, and Amazon either opening in or expanding operations in our markets.

Mortgage Interest Rates Have Nearly Doubled TO

6% *As of July 2022

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1. Source: https://www.zillow.com/research/may-2022-market-report-31157/

housing affordability AND ITS IMPACT These firms bring jobs in the form of both direct and indirect (suppliers, additional service providers, more restaurants, etc.) staffs. And these additional jobs create competition for talent that results in higher wages for either existing residents and/or attraction of talent away from other companies in other marketplaces.

In any case, we believe that demand for housing will remain very strong and therefore we don’t think values will fall.

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other market trends what Else is impacting our local markets?

Two other trends that will likely impact home buying (and therefore home values) in our markets are rents and ‘teleworking’.

While mortgage interest rates have received a lot of the headline news, apartment and home rents have increased dramatically in many of our markets. According to Apartmentlist.com, the median rents in Raleigh and Durham have increased approximately 30% in the last two years, rents in Greensboro increased by about 23% in the past year, and rents in Winston Salem increased by 12% on average in the past year. We believe these rent increases (along with all other inflationary pressures) will also continue to keep the desire for home ownership strong.

And ‘teleworking’ will continue to impact our markets in two ways. The first is our ‘markets’ will continue to expand geographically. As more companies come to terms with employees demanding more flexibility through ‘teleworking’, these employees are moving further away and accepting commuting distances far greater than in the past.

Second, because our markets are among the most attractive in America, employees from companies far and wide are seeking to relocate to both the Triangle and Triad for greater quality of life.

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Again, while no one knows the future of our real estate markets, we do believe that all of the known external influences that drive demand, affordability, and ultimately home values will remain good. So while the rate of home prices will likely slow, we don’t see home values falling in the near future. Our markets remain a good place to buy or sell a home.

i'm Here To Guide you I have the local knowledge and expertise to help guide you through the home buying or selling process. Give me a call today to get started!

Randy Mulchi | REALTOR® | (434) 738-8642 randymulchi@cbadvantage.com

a little about us...

This article was written by Rick Gregory, Chief Operating Officer for Coldwell Banker Advantage.

Rick Gregory Chief Operating Officer Coldwell Banker Advantage

Coldwell Banker Advantage is part of the Coldwell Banker Advantage family of companies with approximately 1900 agents, 57 offices, throughout the Triangle, Triad, Lake Gaston, Kerr Lake, Fayetteville and Southern Pines & Pinehurst, Wilmington, New Bern and Myrtle Beach marketplaces. The Coldwell Banker Advantage family of companies served approximately 24,000 clients representing more than $7 Billion in residential real estate sales in 2021.

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