Abu Dhabi Residential Market Performance H1 2026 by cavendish_maxwell

Abu Dhabi Residential Market Performance H1 2026

Executive Summary to enter the market. Approximately 43,000 units are currently Abu Dhabi’s residential market recorded strong growth during H1

planned for completion in 2027 and 2028, which could increase

2026, supported by continued investor activity and resilience in

competition between new and existing stock and result in more

the

15,500

measured price and rental growth if supply additions outpace

transactions, up 103.6% year-on-year, while total sales value

demand. Geopolitical uncertainty remains the principal downside

increased by 177.9% to AED 67.8 billion. Oﬀ-plan activity was the

risk, particularly through its potential impact on investor

main driver, accounting for 82.7% of transactions, while ready

sentiment, business activity and regional trade. However, Abu

sales declined by 8.5% year-on-year. International investor

Dhabi’s strong ﬁscal and external position, continued investment

interest also remained strong, with foreign direct investment into

activity and government-led development pipeline are expected

Abu Dhabi’s real estate sector increasing by 309% year-on-year to

to provide support for the market.

wider

economy.

Residential

sales

reached

nearly AED 14 billion. Strong transaction activity was accompanied by continued price and rental growth. Apartment prices increased by 16.4% year-on-year during H1 2026, while villa prices rose by 10.1%. Apartment rents increased by 9.4%, although villa rental growth was more measured at 3.8%. Despite heightened regional geopolitical uncertainty, prices continued to rise, although the moderation in quarterly transaction activity and the greater concentration of sales in the oﬀ-plan segment point to a more nuanced market outlook. The temporary rental freeze is also expected to limit further rental increases in the near term. Looking ahead, the key consideration for the market will be its ability to absorb the volume of new residential supply scheduled

Market Snapshot for H1 2026 Sales Transactions

15,500 (+103.6%) Y-on-Y

Sales Value H1 2026

AED 67.8 billion

+177.9% Y-on-Y growth

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

3,275 (+191.9%) Y-on-Y

2,010 (+46.7%) Y-on-Y

2,079 (+38.5%) Y-on-Y

Apartment Sales Price

+16.4% Y-on-Y

Villa Sales Price

+10.1% Y-on-Y

*Volume and Value of Unit Sales Transactions are compiled on a unique-transaction basis. **Sales Transactions refer to Residential Unit Sales Transactions in Abu Dhabi City.

Abu Dhabi Residential Market Performance H1 2026

Residential Supply

5,700

Completed in H1 2026

10,500

Upcoming Supply

Macroeconomic Overview and Outlook Abu Dhabi’s economic outlook remained supported by its strong

market reached AED 49.9 billion, while market capitalisation

sovereign standing and continued investor activity during H1

stood at AED 2.8 trillion at the end of June, supported by AED 171

2026. The emirate’s sovereign credit rating was aﬃrmed at

billion in trading value.

‘AA/A-1+’ with a stable outlook by S&P Global in March 2026. This was accompanied by a sharp increase in foreign direct

Looking ahead, S&P Global forecasts Abu Dhabi’s real GDP

investment into Abu Dhabi’s real estate sector, which surged

growth to average 2.2% between 2026 and 2029, compared with

309% year-on-year to nearly AED 14 billion during H1 2026,

5.3% in 2025, reﬂecting an expected moderation in economic

indicating continued international interest in the emirate’s

activity as regional geopolitical uncertainty weighs on non-oil

long-term growth prospects.

growth. The outlook therefore remains positive, although the pace of expansion is expected to be more measured over the

Business formation also remained positive, with Abu Dhabi

medium term.

recording 17,776 new economic licences in H1 2026, up 5.2% year-on-year from 16,896 in H1 2025. However, the quarterly

Regional geopolitical developments remain the principal

trend points to some moderation, with new licence issuance

near-term risk, particularly through potential disruption to oil

declining from 10,009 in Q1 2026 to 7,767 in Q2 2026. This

exports, shipping routes and investor sentiment if the conﬂict

suggests that while business activity remained positive overall,

intensiﬁes or persists. However, Abu Dhabi’s substantial ﬁscal and

regional

external buﬀers, strong institutional framework and continued

geopolitical

uncertainty

began

weigh

noticeably on sentiment during the second quarter.

government-led investment should provide capacity to absorb external shocks.

Capital market activity provided another indication of continued investor engagement. The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange added more than 30,000 new investors during H1 2026, representing a 7.1% year-on-year increase, with foreign investors accounting for 77% of new registrations. Total dividends distributed through the

Abu Dhabi Residential Market Performance H1 2026

Sales Transactions By Volume Abu Dhabi's residential sales market recorded 15,500 transactions during H1 2026, more than doubling year-on-year with a 103.6% increase, while also rising 4.3% compared with H2 2025. This marked the highest first-half transaction volume in the period shown, driven almost entirely by the off-plan segment. Off-plan transactions reached 12,800, up 173.5% year-on-year and 13.8% half-on-half, accounting for 82.7% of total sales during the period. In contrast, ready transactions declined 8.5% year-on-year and 25.5% half-on-half to 2,700 transactions, with their share of total activity falling to 17.3%, compared with 38.4% in H1 2025, highlighting the increasing dominance of off-plan activity in Abu Dhabi's residential market. The strong growth in off-plan activity continued into Q2 2026, although the pace moderated from the elevated levels recorded in late 2025 and Q1 2026. Total transactions reached 7,400 in Q2, down 9.2% quarter-on-quarter, with off-plan volumes declining 6.7% and ready transactions falling 20.3%. Despite this moderation, off-plan transactions remained 161.2% above Q2 2025 levels, while ready transactions were 27.2% lower year-on-year. As transaction registration lags continue to unwind, Q2 2026 figures are providing an early indication of underlying market activity, while Q3 2026 will offer greater clarity on whether the moderation represents a temporary pause or a broader adjustment in market conditions.

Abu Dhabi City Unit Sales Transactions - By Volume 18k 16k

14.8k

15.5k

2.7k

14k 3.6k

12k 10k 8k

8.3k 7.6k 6.2k

2.9k

12.8k

2.9k

11.2k

2.1k

4k 2k 0k

5.4k

4.1k

H1 2024

4.7k

H2 2024 Oﬀ-Plan Transactions

H2 2025

H1 2025 Ready Transactions

H1 2026

Total Sales Transactions

Change in Transaction Volume (%) H-on-H

+13.8%

-25.5%

+4.3%

Y-on-Y

+173.5%

-8.5%

+103.6%

Source: Cavendish Maxwell, Quanta *Residential unit sales data excludes transactions involving residential complexes, duplexes, and penthouses. **Sales Transactions refer to Residential Unit Sales Transactions in Abu Dhabi City.

Abu Dhabi Residential Market Performance H1 2026

By Value Total residential sales value in Abu Dhabi reached AED 67.8 billion during H1 2026, up 177.9% year-on-year and 38.9% compared with H2 2025, outpacing the 103.6% year-on-year growth in transaction volumes. Off-plan sales accounted for AED 60.3 billion, up 249.9% year-on-year and 51.2% half-on-half. Within the off-plan segment, villa and townhouse sales value increased 297.3% year-on-year to AED 31.8 billion, while apartment off-plan value increased 208.8% to AED 28.5 billion. Ready sales value increased 4.6% year-on-year to AED 7.5 billion, despite an 8.5% decline in transaction volumes, with villa and townhouse values increasing by 2% and apartment values by 7.8%. On a quarterly basis, total residential sales value reached AED 29.7 billion in Q2 2026, down 22.1% quarter-on-quarter, while remaining 143.9% above the same period a year earlier. Off-plan sales accounted for AED 26.3 billion, down 22.7% quarter-on-quarter while remaining 218% above Q2 2025, and ready sales stood at AED 3.4 billion, down 16.8% quarter-on-quarter and 12.9% year-on-year.

Abu Dhabi City Unit Sales Transactions - By Value (AED) 80B 67.8B

70B

7.5B

60B 48.8B

50B

8.9B

40B 26.5B

30B 20B 10B

24.4B

6.3B 16.8B

7.2B

4.8B

20.2B

H1 2024

39.9B

17.2B

12B

60.3B

H2 2024

H2 2025

H1 2025

Oﬀ-Plan Transactions

Ready Transactions

H1 2026

Total Sales Transactions

Change in Transaction Value (%) H-on-H

+51.2%

-16%

+38.9%

Y-on-Y

+249.9%

+4.6%

+177.9%

Abu Dhabi Residential Market Performance H1 2026

Sales Transactions by Property Type: Apartments Apartments continued to dominate Abu Dhabi's residential sales market during H1 2026, accounting for 73.7% of total transactions, up from 68.5% in H1 2025. Total apartment transactions reached 11,400 in H1 2026, up 119.1% year-on-year and 18.4% compared with H2 2025. Growth was driven by the oﬀ-plan segment, which recorded 9,500 transactions, up 197.8% year-on-year and 36.5% half-on-half, supported by a higher volume of apartment-led project launches by developers, alongside the continued attractiveness of developer-led payment plans and incentives. Ready apartment transactions, by contrast, declined 5.5% year-on-year and 28.8% half-on-half to 1,900 transactions. On a quarterly basis, apartment volumes reached 5,700 transactions in Q2 2026, declining by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter while remaining 108.1% higher year-on-year.

Abu Dhabi City Apartment Transactions - By Volume 12k

11.4k

10k

9.6k

2.7k

5.2k

1.9k

4.4k

1.4k

9.5k 7k

3.2k

H1 2024

H2 2024

H1 2025

Oﬀ-Plan Transactions

Ready Transactions

H2 2025

H1 2026

Total Sales Transactions

Change in Transaction Volume (%) H-on-H

+36.5%

-28.8%

+18.4%

Y-on-Y

+197.8%

-5.5%

+119.1%

Source: Cavendish Maxwell, Quanta *Apartment sales data excludes transactions involving duplexes, and penthouses. **Sales Transactions refer to Residential Unit Sales Transactions in Abu Dhabi City.

Abu Dhabi Residential Market Performance H1 2026

Sales Transactions by Property Type: Villas and Townhouses Villas and townhouses recorded 4,100 transactions during H1 2026, up 70% year-on-year, although activity declined 21.7% compared with H2 2025. The increase was driven by the oﬀ-plan segment, which recorded 3,300 transactions, up 121.5% year-on-year, despite declining 23% half-on-half. Ready villa and townhouse transactions, by contrast, declined 15.2% year-on-year and 15.9% half-on-half to 800 transactions. On a quarterly basis, villa and townhouse transactions declined 28.4% in Q2 2026 to 1,700 transactions. Oﬀ-plan volumes fell 33.4% quarter-on-quarter but remained 61.9% higher than Q2 2025, while ready transactions declined 3.1% quarter-on-quarter and 17% year-on-year.

By Volume 6k

5.2k

0.9k

3.3k

0.8k

0.8k 2.4k

1.8k

1.5k

1.1k H1 2024

3.3k

2.5k

1k 0k

4.3k

0.9k 0.7k

4.1k

H2 2024 Oﬀ-Plan Transactions

H1 2025 Ready Transactions

H2 2025

H1 2026

Total Sales Transactions

Change in Transaction Volume (%) H-on-H

-23%

-15.9%

-21.7%

Y-on-Y

+121.5%

-15.2%

+70%

Source: Cavendish Maxwell, Quanta **Sales Transactions refer to Residential Unit Sales Transactions in Abu Dhabi City.

Abu Dhabi Residential Market Performance H1 2026

Sales Transactions: By District Apartment sales activity in Abu Dhabi remained concentrated in a relatively small number of districts during H1 2026, with Al Reem Island leading at 4,471 transactions, followed by Yas Island with 2,807 transactions. Together, the two districts accounted for 7,278 transactions, or 63.8% of total apartment sales. Saadiyat Island ranked third with 1,207 transactions, while Al Hudayriyat Island and Khalifa City recorded 611 and 503 transactions, respectively. Villa and townhouse activity was led by Al Hudayriyat Island, which recorded 1,574 transactions during H1 2026, accounting for approximately 38.7% of the 4,100 villa and townhouse transactions recorded during the period.

Top 5 Districts – Apartments 5k

4,471

4k 2,807

3k 2k

1,207

1k 0k

Al Reem Island

Yas Island

Saadiyat Island

611

503

Al Hudayriyat Island

Khalifa City

Source: Cavendish Maxwell, Quanta *Apartment sales data excludes transactions involving duplexes, and penthouses.

Top 5 Districts – Villas and Townhouses 2.5k 2k 1,574

1.5k 1k 446

0.5k 0k

248

Al Hudayriyat Island

Zayed City

Source: Cavendish Maxwell, Quanta **Sales Transactions refer to Residential Unit Sales Transactions in Abu Dhabi City.

Abu Dhabi Residential Market Performance H1 2026

Al Shamkha

231

Yas Island

193

Ramhan Island

Existing and Future Residential Supply Abu Dhabi's residential stock stood at approximately 323,600 units at the end of H1 2026, with approximately 5,700 units completed during the year to date. A further 10,500 units are scheduled for delivery by year-end, bringing projected total stock to around 334,000 units. Looking further ahead, the pipeline is expected to accelerate considerably, with approximately 17,300 units projected for delivery in 2027 and a further 26,000 units in 2028, taking total residential stock to an estimated 372,000 units by the end of 2028. While actual deliveries may fall short of scheduled completions due to construction delays and project deferrals, the overall volume of incoming supply remains considerable. The key consideration for the medium term is therefore not simply the scale of planned supply, but whether underlying demand can absorb it at a pace that supports an orderly market. If supply additions begin to outpace demand growth, greater competition between new and existing stock could place some pressure on residential price and rental growth. Regional geopolitical uncertainty adds a further layer of complexity, particularly for projects at earlier stages of development that may be more exposed to changes in construction costs and procurement lead times, potentially resulting in delays or deferrals that alter the timing of future supply.

Abu Dhabi City Supply - Number of Units 371.7k

380k 345.7k

360k 340k

17.3k 317.9k

320k 299.5k

10.5k 5.7k

307.5k

300k 280k 260k 240k

26k

334k

299.5k

307.5k

2023

2024 Existing Supply

317.9k

2025

2026 (E)

Projected Supply

Completed Supply

Upcoming Supply

328.4k

345.7k

2027 (F*)

2028 (F*)

Total

Source: Cavendish Maxwell, Abu Dhabi Real Estate Centre, MEED Projects *The projected supply is based on the information available at the time of preparing the report and may diﬀer from other projections. It is subject to revision as additional details, including changes in project completion dates, become available in the future.

Abu Dhabi Residential Market Performance H1 2026

Sales Price Change Despite heightened regional geopolitical uncertainty, apartment prices in Abu Dhabi increased by 16.4% year-on-year during H1 2026, with all major districts recording double-digit growth. Yas Island recorded the strongest increase at 18.3%, followed by Al Reem Island at 17.3%, Al Raha Beach at 17.2% and Al Reef at 14.7%. Prices also continued to rise on a quarterly basis, although the pace of growth moderated slightly. The continued appreciation indicates that, despite some impact on transaction activity and buyer sentiment, Abu Dhabi's residential prices have remained resilient in the face of a more challenging external environment.

Apartment Sales Price Change (%) 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0%

Abu Dhabi Apartment

Al Reem Island

Al Raha Beach

Al Reef

Yas Island

Y-on-Y % Change Source: Cavendish Maxwell

Villa sales prices in Abu Dhabi increased by 10.1% year-on-year during H1 2026, with growth varying across key communities. Yas Island recorded the strongest growth at 14.2%, followed by Saadiyat Island at 10.7%, broadly in line with the citywide average. Al Reef and Al Raha Gardens recorded more moderate growth of 7% and 2.8%, respectively.

Villa Sales Price Change (%) 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0%

Abu Dhabi Villas

Al Raha Gardens

Source: Cavendish Maxwell

Abu Dhabi Residential Market Performance H1 2026

Yas Island Y-on-Y % Change

Saadiyat Island

Al Reef

Rental Rates Change Apartment rental rates in Abu Dhabi increased by 9.4% year-on-year during H1 2026, with growth varying across key communities. Yas Island recorded the strongest increase at 17.9%, followed by Al Reem Island at 13.1% and Al Reef at 12.1%. Al Raha Beach recorded a more moderate increase of 8.5%, slightly below the citywide average. Looking ahead, the recent introduction of the temporary rental freeze by the Abu Dhabi Real Estate Centre could help limit further rental increases in the near term, providing some relief to tenants.

Apartment Rental Rate Change (%) 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0%

Abu Dhabi Apartment

Al Reem Island

Al Raha Beach

Al Reef

Yas Island

Y-on-Y % Change Source: Cavendish Maxwell

Villa rental rates in Abu Dhabi increased by 3.8% year-on-year during H1 2026, with rental growth remaining more measured compared with the apartment segment. Performance varied across key communities, with Al Reef recording the strongest increase at 5.5%, followed by Yas Island, Al Raha Gardens and Saadiyat Island.

Villa Rental Rate Change (%) 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0%

Abu Dhabi Villas

Al Raha Gardens

Yas Island Y-on-Y % Change

Source: Cavendish Maxwell

Abu Dhabi Residential Market Performance H1 2026

Saadiyat Island

Al Reef

2026 Real Estate Market Outlook Abu Dhabi’s residential market enters the second half of 2026 with strong transaction momentum, although the composition of activity points to a more nuanced outlook. While the factors supporting residential demand remain in place, the timing of new supply, developer launch activity and broader economic conditions are likely to have a greater influence on transaction and price performance. Transaction volumes, while still historically elevated, showed some moderation in Q2 2026. Off-plan activity is expected to remain the primary driver, supported by continued developer launches and attractive payment plans. However, with 82.7% of residential transactions taking place in the off-plan segment during H1 2026, a sustained slowdown in launch activity could weigh on overall transaction volumes. The ready segment is also likely to remain more subdued, with its share of total sales falling to 17.3%, from 38.4% in H1 2025.

Residential prices in Abu Dhabi have shown notable resilience against a backdrop of heightened regional geopolitical uncertainty, with every major district recording year-on-year growth. That said, quarterly growth is already beginning to ease, which is a signal worth watching.

Andrew Laver

Director, Commercial Valuation - Abu Dhabi

On the supply side, approximately 43,000 units are scheduled for delivery in 2027 and 2028, making demand absorption increasingly important. Actual deliveries may differ from current schedules due to construction delays and project deferrals. Meanwhile, as transaction registration lags unwind, Q3 2026 should provide greater clarity on the direction of market activity. Residential prices have remained resilient, with apartment prices increasing by 16.4% year-on-year during H1 2026, although quarterly growth moderated slightly. Rental growth is also likely to become more measured, with apartment rents up 9.4% year-on-year and the temporary rental freeze expected to limit further increases in the near term. Continued additions to residential stock should also gradually improve the balance between supply and demand. The principal downside risk remains the regional geopolitical environment, particularly through its potential impact on investor sentiment, business activity, trade and oil exports. However, Abu Dhabi’s strong fiscal position and substantial external buffers provide capacity to help absorb these pressures. For the residential market, the key consideration is whether demand can continue to expand sufficiently to absorb the planned supply pipeline while supporting a measured trajectory for prices and rents.

Authors Julian Roche

Ali Siddiqui

Chief Economist Cavendish Maxwell julian.roche@cavendishmaxwell.com

Research Manager ali.siddiqui@cavendishmaxwell.com +971 50 877 0190

Key Contacts Andrew Laver

Zacky Sajjad

Director, Business Development and Client Relations zacky.sajjad@cavendishmaxwell.com +971 50 644 5089

Director, Commercial Valuation - Abu Dhabi andrew.laver@cavendishmaxwell.com +971 56 433 5189

Abu Dhabi +971 2 448 4677 abudhabi@cavendishmaxwell.com 605 West Tower, Abu Dhabi Mall Tourist Club Area, P.O. Box 126609, Abu Dhabi, UAE Dubai

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Disclaimer: The information and analysis contained in this publication are derived from sources generally considered reliable and based on assumptions deemed reasonable and current at the time of undertaking market research. However, no representation or warranty, express or implied is made regarding their accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to amend or discontinue the indices at any time for regulatory or other reasons. The information and its analysis in this publication do not constitute legal, ﬁnancial, or any other form of advice. Furthermore, it does not constitute a formal valuation, feasibility study or analysis of any property interest and should not be construed as such. Such analysis, including forward-looking statements are opinions and estimates only, and are based on a wide range of variables which may not be capable of being determined with accuracy. Variation in any of these indicators can have a material impact on the analysis and we draw your attention to this. ADREC data reﬂects sales as of the date of registration, not preceding contractual events (MoU or SPA signing). Cavendish Maxwell accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage whether direct or indirect arising from reliance on this information.