2017 Dubai Industrial and Logistics Market Summary

DUBAI INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS MARKET 2017 YEAR END REVIEW AND 2018 MARKET OUTLOOK

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Dubai Industrial and Logistics Market

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Š Cavendish Maxwell 2018 | cavendishmaxwell.com

Dubai Industrial and Logistics Market

DUBAI INDUSTRIAL MARKET

2017 SUMMARY

2017 witnessed a continuation of trends from the previous 18 months with a difficult and competitive market place. Enquiry levels picked up as the year progressed and rallied strongly in the final quarter, after a quiet summer period. The vast majority of enquiries were for the small to mid-sized sector of the market with requirements for 50,000 sq ft or less accounting for 79% of demand*. There were also a number of significant occupier requirements above this level, including the big box market of more than 100,000 sq ft*. Many of these requirements have remained unsatisfied due to the lack of good quality stock available in the market, which has led to more occupiers exploring the Build to Suit (BTS) route, therefore delaying take up.

There has been an increase in vacancy levels with many occupiers feeling financial pressure due to the current economic climate.

Some businesses within certain industries, such as oil, gas and commodities, are now looking to rationalise their real estate holdings in a bid to reduce overheads and are therefore looking to either sell facilities which are considered excess to requirement or downsize operations. This is a trend which is even more apparent in the Free Zones where businesses are also facing increases in their land rents at rent review or land lease renewal. In addition to this there are a number of speculative developers bringing new supply to the market leading to an unprecedented level of disposal instructions.

The key driving forces in the market throughout 2016-2017 were from the logistics and distribution sectors and the traders of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and we expect this trend to continue throughout the course of 2018. This demand is not being met by the specification of existing warehouses, whereby occupiers in such industries prefer more modern European specification distribution warehouses which are not as readily available in the region. However we are seeing a shift in developers being more conscious towards the needs of the end users reflected in the new products they are bringing to the market in locations such as in Jebel Ali Free Zone and National Industries Park.

Among the influential factors of 2017 affecting take up levels was the disparity between landlord/seller pricing expectations and what the market is willing to pay; often with asking prices 25-30% above market levels. We did see deals concluding where landlords and sellers were able to realign expectations with the market and this was positive to see. However, in still too many cases there was little room for negotiation, with some landlords and sellers unwilling to change their pricing aspirations and likely that their properties may continue to sit vacant. When paired with increasing holding costs in the form of land rent and maintenance, this could be a costly and risky strategy.

Occupiers remained cautious of the market since the drop in the oil price in 2014 however there was an improvement at the end of 2017 as oil prices recovered above the US $60 mark. Although there has been wider geopolitical instability from events such as the Brexit referendum, the uncertainty attached to a Trump Administration and more locally the break down in relations between Qatar and the rest of the GCC, occupiers are starting to factor in and account for external market forces within their decision making strategies similarly to more developed markets.

*Cavendish Maxwell Research

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Dubai Industrial and Logistics Market

UAE ECONOMY

REVIEW

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the UAE’s economy in 2017 was expected to show a contracting growth rate of 1.34%, a decrease from 3.04% in 2016 due the oil sector remaining sluggish. This was further compounded with the nonoil economy, which was also underperforming against expectations, to the extent that it was subject to a mid-year revisal reducing the expected growth from 3.8% at the beginning of year to 3.3%.

With a more diverse economy, Dubai was to outperform the wider UAE, with a growth rate of 3.2% expected in 2017 in comparison to 2.7% in the previous year. The forecast for 2018 shows a more positive anticipated growth rate of 3.4% as the economy continues to diversify with investments and gains in the non-oil sectors, as well as the introduction of VAT which is expected to boost state revenues

by AED 12 billion per annum or 1.5 to 2% of GDP. At emirate level, Dubai is anticipated to show a positive growth rate of 3.5% over the coming 12 months.

5.0

25.0

4.0

20.0

3.0

15.0

2.0

10.0

1.0

5.0

0.0

0.0 2016

2017

2018

2019

% of GDP

Real GDP %

UAE - GDP forecast

2020

Current Account Balance (as% of GDP)

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Dubai Industrial and Logistics Market

INDUSTRIAL

PROPERTY DEMAND 5% International Media Production Zone

8% 100,000+ 5% 75,001 - 100,000

16% 0 - 5,000

8% 50,001 - 75,000

1% Dubai South

11% Other

2% Jebel Ali Industrial

38% Jebel Ali Free Zone

6% Ras Al Khor

30% General Trading

2% Commodities 2% Oil and Gas 6% Services

ENQUIRY SIZE REQUIREMENTS (SQ FT)

ENQUIRY LOCATION REQUIREMENTS

ENQUIRY SECTOR REQUIREMENTS

6% Cold Strore

9% L&D

20% 5,001 - 10,000 9% Food Production 22% 25,001 - 50,000

21% 10,001 - 25,000

9% Engineering

28% Al Quoz

19% Dubai Industrial Park

INDUSTRIAL

16% Manufacture

Source: Cavendish Maxwell research

PROPERTY SUPPLY(SQ FT) Jebel Ali Free Zone

Dubai Investments Park

Al Quoz

National Industries Park

SALE ASKING PRICES

Source: Cavendish Maxwell research

Jebel Ali Free Zone

Average price AED / sq ft

248.5

Dubai Investments Park Locations

Dubai Industrial Park

359.5

Al Quoz

391.5

National Industries Park

231

Dubai Industrial Park

273 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

40

50

60

70

LEASE ASKING PRICES Jebel Ali Free Zone

27.5

33

Al Quoz

Average price AED / sq ft

Locations

Dubai Investments Park

35

National Industries Park

30

Dubai Industrial Park

27 0

10

20

30

*This excludes buildings which are incomplete and specialist units such as fitted cold stores. *The figures reported are exclusive of master authority sub-leasing fees which vary between 15 - 30%

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Source: Cavendish Maxwell research

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Dubai Industrial and Logistics Market

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Dubai Industrial and Logistics Market

MARKET CHALLENGES

2018

•

There is opportunity for developers/land owners to build European style warehouses especially in Non-Free Zone locations

•

Buyers/ tenants are being more cautious and carrying out further due diligence on their available options prior to making real estate related decisions. This is prolonging the timeframe to conclude a transaction however such actions are characteristics of a more mature and stable market

Whilst we expect transaction levels to remain below 2015 take up, strong enquiry levels since the start of 2018 suggest there will be a modest increase from 2017. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that occupiers will continue to carry out greater due diligence and analysis, which will impact decision making times and there will be a continuing differentiation in pricing expectations between sellers and buyers. There will continue to be many properties sitting stagnant on the market however if landlords and sellers are willing to adjust to the current market levels, then they should secure occupiers and buyers.

•

There remains an imbalance between landlord/seller expectations and the market prices which is stalling the market. If landlords are willing to be flexible, it is likely they could attract and secure occupiers to their warehouses

•

The introduction of VAT which applies to the sale and lease transactions of commercial property, in addition to increasing regulations, will cause a period of readjustment in the market conditions

•

Some businesses within the oil, gas and commodities sectors struggle, often looking to rationalise real estate holdings in a bid to reduce operational costs. However, it is likely that the increase in oil price toward the US $70 a barrel mark will positively impact these sectors and encourage more activity and/or investment

•

Onerous ground lease terms and significant increases in ground rents, are pinching occupiers bottom lines at a time when there has been much contraction across a range of industries. Master industrial authorities should keep a watchful eye on such strategies to ensure they don’t lose tenants

AND OPPORTUNITIES MARKET OUTLOOK

INDUSTRIAL

INVESTMENT •

There has been an increase in requirements from investors looking for institutional grade assets with long term income

•

Prime yields now stand a little under 8.5% which is a high yield compared to European markets

•

New funds entering the market, both listed and non-listed, as well as increased activity from high net worth individuals

•

There is a misalignment in seller and buyers pricing aspirations. Yields sought by sellers are too low and not reflective of the market, either because of the poor quality of the underlying asset, lack of growth potential or security of income

•

Problems remain with land tenure; almost all warehouse and industrial land is leasehold. The biggest restraint restricting investment flow is short land leases and land lease rents. The rise in the underlying ground rents have resulted in investors seeking higher gross occupational rents, but with occupiers unable to pay these, it is often a case that transactions will not be financially viable

•

There are very few investment grade commercial options available to investors which might suggest why yields across asset sectors do not fluctuate significantly as one would expect

•

Occupiers with obsolete buildings, or those unwilling to sign long term occupational leases or with weaker balance sheets, can expect double digit yields

•

Given the weight of money chasing transactions, international or strong regional tenants who can sign long leases could potentially achieve yields of less than 8%

•

Going into 2018, prime yields are expected to remain stable with more opportunities for sale and leaseback deals as end users seek to free up liquidity which is otherwise tied up in real estate

We anticipate an increase in the level of occupiers looking to relocate to other emirates in a bid to reduce occupational costs incurred where they are more responsive to the challenges facing many businesses. However, the additional benefits of working within Dubai such as a better legislative and legal framework, more developed infrastructure, working in closer conjunction with suppliers and consumers and easier access to a greater labour force will continue to outweigh any occupational cost savings which may be achievable in other emirates.

Due to the low levels of good quality supply in the well-established areas such as Dubai Investments Park and Al Quoz, which have no development land remaining, it is likely that interest in the areas around Al Maktoum International Airport, such as Dubai South and Dubai Industrial Park will increase as occupiers are forced to look at alternative locations to find suitable properties. Prices in free zones are expected to decline as increased supply and high vacancy levels, coupled with rising land rents, continue to compress capital values. Nevertheless, with an increase in the oil price, Expo 2020, further capital investment in the expansion of Jebel Ali Port on the horizon and the overall maturing of the market, the general sentiment is more positive than it has been for the past couple of years.

KEY

SERVICES Market Research

Due Diligence for Land Acquisition

Asset Management

Property Data

Buyer Profiling

Feasibility Studies

Joint Venture Structuring

Highest and Best Use Studies

Advisory Services

Site Analysis

Education Advisory and Valuation

Disclaimer © Cavendish Maxwell 2018.

The information and analysis contained in this report has been obtained from or is based on information from a variety of sources generally regarded to be reliable and assumptions which are considered reasonable, and which was current at the time of undertaking market research. However, no representation is made, or responsibility accepted by Cavendish Maxwell in respect of the accuracy or currency of this information. Cavendish Maxwell do not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication.

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Property Consultants Middle East and Africa Industrial Andrew Armstrong BSc (Hons) MRICS Senior Surveyor, Investment and Commercial Agency T: +971 50 482 7934 E: andrew.armstrong@cavendishmaxwell.com R: Rera BRN 41705

Freddie Meyer BSc (Hons) Surveyor, Investment and Commercial Agency T: +971 50 261 0811 E: freddie.meyer@cavendishmaxwell.com R: Rera BRN 42210

Investment Andrew Love MA (Hons) MRICS Partner, Head of Investment and Commercial Agency T: +971 50 859 2734 E: andrew.love@cavendishmaxwell.com R: Rera BRN 29362

Office and Retail Dubai

Adam Wynne BSc (Hons) Surveyor, Investment and Commercial Agency T: +971 50 117 5347 E: adam.wynne@cavendishmaxwell.com R: Rera BRN 42484

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