TOWARDS THE REGULATION OF NON-ROAD DIESEL EMISSIONS IN AUSTRALIA

environmental impacts and cost of exhaust emissions.

4.4.2. Impacts of future changes in NRDE emissions

For the BAU scenario, Table 3 shows that the annual NRDE-attributable burden would increase to 5,614 YLL in 2043, and to 5,957 YLL in 2063. The peak in YLL therefore occurred after 2043. When aggregated over the period 2018-2063, the changing NRDE emissions were responsible for 259,163 YLL, again assuming a static 2018 Australian population and no further emissions increases beyond 2043.

The modelling indicated considerable health benefits from the NRDE management scenarios over the time period of the analysis, with MS3 having the largest impact. Nationally, MS1 reduced YLL by 6% relative to the BAU scenario. MS2 and MS3 reduced YLL by 22% and 27% respectively.

Due to the accumulation of health benefits with time, the 20-year extension of the timeframe to 2063 resulted in significantly larger benefits than those obtained for 2018-2043.

5. Summary and conclusions

In 2018, NRDEs were responsible for 10-15% of national anthropogenic NOX emissions, up to 5% of PM2.5 emissions, and 1-2% of PM10 emissions. Most of the NRDE emissions were from large engines in the mining sector.

Emissions from NRDEs occur mostly in rural and remote areas with low population density. However, the resulting atmospheric concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 have a significant influence on national premature mortality. The YLL for NRDE-related NO 2 and PM2.5 concentrations in 2018 were around 9% of the total YLL for all anthropogenic NO 2 and PM2.5 When aggregated over the period from 2018 to 2063 in the BAU scenario, NRDEs were responsible for 259,163 YLL. Notably, around two thirds of the health impacts of NRDEs were due to NO 2

Over the period from 2018 to 2063, the management scenarios reduced YLL by between 6% and 27%, with the largest benefits occurring after 2043.

Emissions from NRDEs, along with the associated health impacts and costs to society, are likely to remain a concern in the future. Despite a projected transition towards higher-tiered technology in some types of equipment, and the possibility of electrifying some of the sector, significant emission reductions are unlikely to be realised in the absence of government intervention. Government action should prompt and accelerate the uptake of lower-emitting engines in line with international approaches, with the purpose of minimising the health impacts,

This analysis has shown that the greatest benefits would be obtained by introducing the Tier 4f emission standards as soon as practicable (i.e. MS3).

6. Acknowledgements

This work was funded by the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, and in support of a cost-benefit analysis (Non-road diesel engines – cost benefit analysis: final report, available at https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/protection/ air-quality/national-clean-air-agreement/evaluationnon-road-diesel-engine-emissions).

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