CA R M E L R E A LT Y C O M PA N Y
Q3 2021 Market Report
C A R M E L- B Y-T H E -S E A , C A R M E L P O I N T, G R E AT E R C A R M E L , C A R M E L VA L L E Y, P E B B L E B E A C H , C A R M E L H I G H L A N D S , B I G SU R & SO UTH COA ST Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 | 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com | DRE#01871627
A C or n e r s t on e i n Lu x u ry R e a l E s tat e f or O v e r O n e Hu n dr e d Ye a r s
Our Featured Listings
1470 Cypress Drive, Pebble Beach ■ $28.5M
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3208 Palmero Way, Pebble Beach ■ $12.5M
5498 Quail Meadows Drive, Carmel ■ $7.4M
3292 Martin Road, Carmel ■ $4.7M
14501 Roland Canyon Road, Corral de Tierra ■ $3.6M
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q3 2021 MARKET REPORT
Our Significant Sales of Q3
3020 Cormorant Road, Pebble Beach ■ SP: $8M Represented Buyer & Seller
2360 Bay View Avenue, Carmel ■ SP: $6.15M Represented Buyer & Seller
6 Garzas Trail, The Santa Lucia Preserve ■ SP: $5.8M Represented Buyer & Seller
NE Corner Casanova & 12th, Carmel-by-the-Sea ■ SP: $4.95M Represented Buyer & Seller
1027 Ocean View Boulevard, Pacific Grove ■ SP: $4.9M Represented Seller
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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Market Overview
T
he Monterey Peninsula is one of the most beautiful places on earth. With “home” continuing to be more important than ever, demand for housing in this area remains very high. All of the reasons families have decided to relocate from urban markets to this area remain. At the same time the frenzy levels of 2020 have started to subside. While each of the nine markets we track in this report can vary, overall, it is safe to say that The Peninsula is beginning to normalize at what seems like healthy and potentially more sustainable levels. In most of our nine markets, sales and volumes in the current quarter are lower than Q2 of this year and down more from the second half of last year. However, our year-to-date levels are higher this year than last. COVID had all but shut down a few months in early 2020 and those months in 2021 were flourishing. Overall, 2021 looks like it will land higher in volume that 2020. Said plainly, our market appears to be slower now than last year, but busier than any other year we’ve ever had. With demand remaining high, we believe this is a much healthier level and one that several economists are calling a new normalization of our markets. If you or any of your friends or family are considering a real estate transaction in this market, it has never been more important to enlist a market leading company and knowledgeable agent to guide you through the dynamic changes we are experiencing. At Carmel Realty Company and Monterey Coast Realty we engage a powerful in-house analytics team to track every key indicator in our market. We then pair this data with the market’s most experienced and successful agents to deliver exceptional results for our clients. Please enjoy the following quarterly market report and let us know if we can provide you with any additional information or support.
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Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Table of Contents
Q3 2021 MARKET REPORT
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point ������������������ 6 Greater Carmel ���������������������������������������������������� 8 The areas outside of Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
Carmel Valley ����������������������������������������������������� 10 Pebble Beach �������������������������������������������������������� 12 Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast �������������������������������������� 14
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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C A R M E L - B Y-T H E - S E A
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
S
ales volume in Carmel-by-the-Sea has come off its record highs and is beginning to normalize after several record quarters. Both the number of units sold and total sales volume in Q3 were down close to 25% versus Q2 of this year. There were still 37 homes sold for $118M in volume which would rank as a very high quarter when compared to pre-COVID periods. Less inventory was clearly a key driver in the year over year reduction in sales. However, demand remains high in this market. Our proprietary data shows that 29% of all home sales this quarter in Carmel-by-theSea have gone for over asking price.
SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 0 $1M-2M | 12 $2M-3M | 13 $3M-5M | 7 $5M+ | 5
6
$3,193,247 2.2% vs Q2 2021 24.3% vs Q3 2020 SALES VOLUME
$118.2M 26% vs Q2 2021 38% vs Q3 2020
DAYS ON MARKET
53% vs Q2 2021 62% vs Q3 2020
14% 19% 32% 35%
18
UNITS SOLD
37
24% vs Q2 2021 50% vs Q3 2020
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
Q3 2021 MARKET REPORT
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $3.4M
50
$2.6M
38
$1.7M
25
$850K
13
Q3 2020
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Average
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
$200M
80
$3.4M
$150M
60
$2.6M
$100M
40
$50M
20
$1.7M
$850K
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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G R E AT E R C A R M E L
Market Update
T
he Greater Carmel market has also seen a reduction from the highs of last year and from last quarter. Volume is down 30% from last quarter. However year-to-date results in Greater Carmel remain outstanding. The first 9 months of this year has generated more volume than any full year in the history of the area other than exceptional year of 2020. Average sale price is down slightly from Q2 but is flat with Q3 of last year at just over $1.8M. Lowering inventory levels are driving this area falling quickly from 26 homes for sale at the end of Q3 last year, and 18 homes at the end of last quarter, to only 12 homes available for sale at the end of Q3 of this year.
SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 6 $1M-2M | 8 $2M-3M | 6 $3M-5M | 2 $5M+ | 0
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27%
$1,804,455 11.3% vs Q2 2021 .2% vs Q3 2020 SALES VOLUME
$39.7M 30% vs Q2 2021 42% vs Q3 2020
DAYS ON MARKET
44 42% vs Q2 2021 20% vs Q3 2020
9% 27%
36%
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
UNITS SOLD
22
21% vs Q2 2021 42% vs Q3 2020 Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Greater Carmel
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $2.4M
80
$1.8M
60
$1.2M
40
$600K
20
Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021
Average
Q3 2021 MARKET REPORT
The areas outside of Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
$70M
40
$2.4M
$53M
30
$1.8M
$35M
20
$18M
10
$1.2M
$600K
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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C A R M E L VA L L E Y
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
C
armel Valley sales activity has remained extremely strong for the 5th straight quarter. The market has seen an increase in average sale price for 4 straight quarters. The average sale price for Q3 of this year exceeded $2M for the first time in the history of the market. The actual average price of $2,033,375 is up almost 10% over the previous quarter and up 25% from an already very strong Q3 of last year. At the end of this quarter there where only 35 homes for sale in Carmel Valley, which is down nearly 60% from the 82 homes that were for sale at this same time last year.
9% SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 16 $1M-2M | 27 $2M-3M | 13 $3M-5M | 6 $5M+ | 5
10
19% 40%
$2,033,375 9.4% vs Q2 2021 25.6% vs Q3 2020 SALES VOLUME
$136.2M 16% vs Q2 2021 12% vs Q3 2020
7%
DAYS ON MARKET
32 45% vs Q2 2021 40% vs Q3 2020
24% UNITS SOLD
67
23% vs Q2 2021 30% vs Q3 2020 Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q3 2021 MARKET REPORT
Carmel Valley
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $2.1M
60
$1.6M
45
$1.1M
30
$525K
15
Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021
Average
Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
$180M
100
$2.1M
$135M
75
$1.6M
$90M
50
$45M
25
$1.1M
$525K
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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P E B B L E B E AC H
Market Update
P
ebble Beach sales volume and the number of units sold have both decreased by approximately 40% over the previous quarter. Sales volume was down 42% and units sold was down 55% when compared to the record 3rd quarter of last year. However, it is important to note that decrease in sales volume and units is in comparison to market high numbers in Q3 of last year and Q2 of this year. Actual year-todate volume in this market is very healthy. Total sales volume over the first 9 months of this year is $511M, which is more volume that any full year in the history of Pebble Beach. While inventory levels are low, demand remains high in this market. This is having a positive impact on the average sales price of $4.4M.
SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 3 $1M-2M | 6 $2M-3M | 6 $3M-5M | 5 $5M+ | 7
12
22% 11% 26%
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
$4,430,582 5.2% vs Q2 2021 28% vs Q3 2020 SALES VOLUME
$119.6M 42% vs Q2 2021 42% vs Q3 2020
DAYS ON MARKET
40% vs Q2 2021 71% vs Q3 2020
22% 19%
30
UNITS SOLD
27
39% vs Q2 2021 59% vs Q3 2020 Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q3 2021 MARKET REPORT
Pebble Beach
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $5M
80
$3.8M
60
$2.5M
40
$1.3M
20
Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021
Average
Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
$220M
60
$5M
$165M
45
$3.8M
$110M
30
$55M
15
$2.5M
$1.3M
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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CARMEL HIGHLANDS
Market Update
C
armel Highlands and Big Sur Coast had another strong quarter in Q3 with 13 sales totaling $53M in volume. The average sales price was just over $4M which was nearly flat with last quarter and up almost 40% from Q3 of last year. We know that this average sales price was impacted by a few high price transactions including Carmel Realty’s sale in September for $23M. While inventory is down slightly in this market there are still 23 homes currently for sale which represents 7 months of available inventory, a strong comparison to most markets on the Peninsula tracking at only 1-2 months of available inventory.
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
$4,076,023 3.9% vs Q2 2021 39.4% vs Q3 2020
$53M
SALES VOLUME
17% vs Q2 2021 35% vs Q3 2020
DAYS ON MARKET SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 3 $1M-2M | 3 $2M-3M | 2 $3M-5M | 2 $5M+ | 3
14
23% vs Q2 2021 5% vs Q3 2020
23% 15% 15%
23% 23%
102
UNITS SOLD
13
13% vs Q2 2021 54% vs Q3 2020 Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
Q3 2021 MARKET REPORT
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market
$5M
140
$3.8M
105
$2.5M
70
$1.3M
35
Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021
Average
Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
30
$90M
$7M
$5.3M
$68M 20
$3.5M
$45M 10
$1.8M
$23M
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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Courtney Adamski
Courtney Jones
Geoff Arnold
Karen Katz
Rebecca Wolf Arnold
David Kent
Jeremy Barrett
Lynn Knoop
Carrie Baumgart
Greg Kraft
Chris Baumgart
Steve LaVaute
Mary Bell
Kean Matthams
Sarah Bouchier
Sharon Matthams
Paul Brocchini
Kris McAulay
Kris Butler
Doug McKenzie
Peter Butler
Linda Miller
Christine Chin
Bill Mitchell
Susan Clark
Vicki Mitchell
Lisa Talley Dean
Shelly Mitchell Lynch
Kim DiBenedetto
Jamal Noorzoy
Elizabeth Dini
Judie Profeta
Mark Duchesne
Chris Pryor
Bobbie Ehrenpreis
Melanie Rolfe Rosen
Bill Faber
Mark Ryan
Maria Finkle
Connie Snowdon
Susan Freeland
Ed Stellingsma
Michelle Hammons
Judy Tollner
Christine Handel
Carla White
Malone Hodges
Brett Wilbur
Dave Howarth
Rhonda Williams
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 | 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
A C or n e r s t on e i n Lu x u ry R e a l E s tat e f or O v e r O n e Hu n dr e d Ye a r s