Q3 2020 Market Report | Carmel Realty Company

Page 1

Carmel-by-the-Sea, Carmel Point, Greater Carmel, Carmel Valley, Pebble Beach, Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast

Q3 2020 Market Report

Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338


Our Featured Listings

Q3 2020 Market Report

1470 Cypress Drive, Pebble Beach ■ $29.85M

1659 Crespi Lane, Pebble Beach ■ $16.9M

3164 Palmero Way, Pebble Beach ■ $14.5M

1543 Riata Road, Pebble Beach ■ $12.75M

3225 17 Mile Drive, Pebble Beach ■ $11.5M

Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338


Our Significant Sales This Quarter

Q3 2020 Market Report

3188 17 Mile Drive, Pebble Beach ■ SP: $24.85M Represented Seller

Timeless Pebble Beach Estate, Pebble Beach ■ SP: $21M Represented Buyer & Seller

Scenic 6 SE of Ocean, Carmel-by-the-Sea ■ SP: $7.3M Represented Buyer & Seller

3381 Laureles Lane, Pebble Beach ■ SP: $7.2M Represented Seller

3141 17 Mile Drive, Pebble Beach ■ SP: $7M Represented Seller

Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338

3


Q2 2020 Market Report

Market Overview

T

he 3rd quarter of 2020 has turned out to be one of the busiest quarters in our market’s history. As the coming pages will demonstrate, demand across all 5 markets we track has been extraordinary. New records have been set in total sales volume, average sales price and the number of transactions in several of our markets. It is important to note that we report this surge in business with the utmost humility and care. We understand that so many business are dealing with extraordinary challenges as a result of COVID-19. Our thoughts and best wishes go out to all businesses and people in our community and around the world. We pray for your safety and a fast recovery as the world prepares to recover in the months ahead. One positive impact for the Monterey Peninsula is that along with this surge in activity comes a number of fantastic families moving into our homes, sending children to our schools, shopping and dining in our town. We believe this prepares us well for a speedy recovery on the other side of the COVID crisis. Our thoughts on the real estate market going forward remain very positive. We believe that the underlying demand is based on a shift in lifestyle preference for a lot of people. The Monterey Peninsula offers space, beauty, indooroutdoor living and a slower pace of life than a number of the larger cities. While the economic and political environment continues to shift, we believe the underlying drivers for demand in our market to remain strong well into next year. We hope you find the attached data useful in evaluating the results of our market. As always, please be sure to contact us if there is anything we can do to help you with your real estate plans in our marketplace.

Dolores South of Seventh â– P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â– Fax: 831.624.7338


Table of Contents

Q3 2020 Market Report

Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point �������������������������������������������� 6 Greater Carmel ���������������������������������������� 8 The areas outside of Camel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point

Carmel Valley ������������������������������������������10 Pebble Beach ������������������������������������������� 12 Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast ���������������������������14

Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338

5


Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point

About Carmel-by-the-Sea

C

armel-by-the-Sea realized a surge in demand from the larger neighboring markets and experienced extraordinary growth in Q3, 2020. There were 74 sales up over 300% from Q2 and up almost 100% over Q3 2019. Sales in the under $1M range decreased, partially because average sale price increased by 24% in the quarter. Sales in the $3M-5M range saw the most growth over last year, increasing from 2 sales in Q3 2019 to 20 sales in Q3 2020. Total sales volume of $191M was almost 3 times higher the same period last year.

Q3 2020 Market Report

Average Selling Price

24% vs Q2 2020 45% vs Q3 2019

Sales Volume

28% 22%

2% 6%

$191.7M 412% vs Q2 2020 184% vs Q3 2019

2020 YTD Sales by Segment

43%

$2,569,677

Units Sold

<$1M | 2 $1M-2M | 52 $2M-3M | 34 $3M-5M | 27 $5M+ | 7

74

311% vs Q2 2020 95% vs Q3 2019

Days on Market*

47

15% vs Q2 2020 39% vs Q3 2019

Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338


Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point

Q3 2020 Market Report

Average vs Median Sales

Days on Market*

$2.8M

120

90

$2.1M 60

$1.4M 30

Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020

Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020

Average

Median

* DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th due to COVID-19

Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter

Closed Sales by Quarter

Closed Sales Volume by Quarter $200M

80

$150M

60

$2.8M

$2.1M $100M

40 $1.4M

$50M

20

Q1

Q2

2019

Q3

2020

Q4

Q1

Q2

2019

Q3

Q4

2020

Q1

2019 2020

Q2

Q3

Q4

2019 Median 2020 Median

Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338

7


Greater Carmel

Q3 2020 Market Report

The areas outside of Camel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point

About Greater Carmel

T

here were 38 sales in Carmel during Q3, which is almost double the number of sales in this market during the first half of the year. Average sales price was up to $1.8M representing a 35% increase over last quarter and 25% increase over Q3 of 2019. Total sales volume was up almost 300% over Q2 and 100% over Q3 of 2019. Over half of the sales were in the $1M-2M. Availability in the area is currently very tight with only 2.2 months of available inventory of homes for sale at the end of Q3.

Average Selling Price

$1,801,092 35% vs Q2 2020 25% vs Q3 2019

Sales Volume

$68.4M 294% vs Q2 2020 106% vs Q3 2019

2020 YTD Sales by Segment

9% 17%

22% 52%

<$1M | 15 $1M-2M | 36 $2M-3M | 12 $3M-5M | 6 $5M+ | 0

Units Sold

38

192% vs Q2 2020 65% vs Q3 2019

Days on Market*

55

175% vs Q2 2020 18% vs Q3 2019

Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338


Greater Carmel

Q3 2020 Market Report

The areas outside of Camel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point

Average vs Median Sales Price

Days on Market*

$2M

100

$1.5M

75

$1M

50

$0.5M

25

Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020

Average

Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 * DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th due to COVID-19

Median

Closed Sales by Quarter

Closed Sales Volume by Quarter

Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter

30

$70M

$1.75M

$1.5M

$53M

20 $1.25M

$35M

10 $1M

$18M

Q1

Q2

2019

Q3

2020

Q4

Q1

Q2

2019

Q3

Q4

2020

Q1

Q2

2019 2020

Q3

Q4

2019 Median 2020 Median

Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338

9


Carmel Valley

About Carmel Valley

C

armel Valley also experienced extraordinary growth in the number of sales transacting during the quarter. There were 96 properties that changed hands in Q3 up dramatically from Q2 and up over 80% over Q3 of 2019. Average sales price for the quarter was $1.614M up over 30% over last year at this time. The vast majority of the sales in Carmel Valley are under $2M but, we have seen four sales this year over $5M which is double that of all of last year, mostly due to the strong increase in demand for living in the Santa Lucia Preserve.

Q3 2020 Market Report

Average Selling Price

23% vs Q2 2020 32% vs Q3 2019

Sales Volume

10%

41%

37%

$155M 237% vs Q2 2020 139% vs Q3 2019

2020 YTD Sales by Segment

2% 10%

$1,614,404

Units Sold

<$1M | 72 $1M-2M | 64 $2M-3M | 18 $3M-5M | 17 $5M+ | 4

96

167% vs Q2 2020 81% vs Q3 2019

Days on Market*

53

10% vs Q2 2020 50% vs Q3 2019

Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338


Carmel Valley

Q3 2020 Market Report

Average vs Median Sales Price

Days on Market*

$2.25M

120

90 $1.5M

60 $0.75M

30

Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020

Average

Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 * DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th due to COVID-19

Median

Closed Sales Volume by Quarter $160M

Closed Sales by Quarter

Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter

100

$2M

80

$123M

$1.5M

60

$85M 40

$1M

$48M

20

Q1

Q2

2019

Q3

2020

Q4

Q1

Q2

2019

Q3

Q4

2020

Q1

Q2

2019 2020

Q3

Q4

2019 Median 2020 Median

Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338

11


Pebble Beach

About Pebble Beach

P

ebble Beach closed 60 transactions in Q3 of 2020 which is 3 times the number of homes sold in Q2 of this year and almost 2 times the number of homes sold in any quarter last year. Total sales dollar volume of $207,616,708 is 2 times higher than the same quarter last year and almost 2 times the total volume sold in the previous 2 quarters combined. Year-to-date there has been an increase of 30% in sales in the $3M and up price range. There have been 16 sales over $5M so far this year. There is only 1.9 months left of available inventory.

Q3 2020 Market Report

Average Selling Price

$3,460,278 9% vs Q2 2020 9% vs Q3 2019

Sales Volume

174% vs Q2 2020 99% vs Q3 2019

2020 YTD Sales by Segment

39% 10% 17%

17% 18%

$207.6M Units Sold

<$1M | 10 $1M-2M | 37 $2M-3M | 16 $3M-5M | 17 $5M+ | 16

60

200% vs Q2 2020 82% vs Q3 2019

Days on Market*

73

30% vs Q2 2020 42% vs Q3 2019

Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338


Pebble Beach

Q3 2020 Market Report

Average vs Median Sales Price

Days on Market*

$4M

130

$3.25M

97.5

$2.5M

65

$1.75M

32.5

Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020

Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020

Average

* DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th due to COVID-19

Median

Closed Sales by Quarter

Closed Sales Volume by Quarter

Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter

60

$220M

$4.5M

48

$170M

$3.5M

36 $120M

$2.5M

24 $70M

$1.5M

12

Q1

Q2

2019

Q3

2020

Q4

Q1

Q2

2019

Q3

Q4

2020

Q1

Q2

2019 2020

Q3

Q4

2019 Median 2020 Median

Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338

13


Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast

About Carmel Highlands

T

his market has benefited the most from the increased demand for space and beauty. In a market where we see the number of quarterly sales in the low single digit range, Q3 had a total of 28 sales. Year to date there have been more homes sold than in any of the previous 13 years. The averages sales price is up over 40% from this time last year. There have been 10 sales over $5M year-todate as compared to only one last year. Total sales volume is up nearly 10 times the volume of the same quarter last year.

Average Selling Price

30%

27% 14%

22%

$2,924,361 44% vs Q2 2020 42% vs Q3 2019

Sales Volume

$81.9M 213% vs Q2 2020 894% vs Q3 2019

2020 YTD Sales by Segment

8%

Q3 2020 Market Report

Units Sold

<$1M | 3 $1M-2M | 11 $2M-3M | 8 $3M-5M | 5 $5M+ | 10

28

460% vs Q2 2020 600% vs Q3 2019

Days on Market

97

25% vs Q2 2020 62% vs Q3 2019

Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338


Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast

Q3 2020 Market Report

Average vs Median Sales Price

Days on Market*

$6.5M

200

$5M

150

$3.5M

100

$2M

50

2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3

Average

Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 * DOM count was suspended March 17th - May 16th due to COVID-19

Median

Closed Sales Volume by Quarter $90M

Closed Sales by Quarter

Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter

30

$7M

$68M

$5.25M 20

$46M

$3.5M 10

$23M

$1.75M

Q1

Q2

2019

Q3

2020

Q4

Q1

Q2

2019

Q3

2020

Q4

Q1

Q2

2019 2020

Q3

Q4

2019 Median 2020 Median

Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338

15


A Cornerstone in Luxury Real Estate for Over One Hundred Years Courtney Adamski

Dave Howarth

Rebecca Wolf Arnold

Courtney Jones

Jeremy Barrett

Karen Katz

Carrie Baumgart

David Kent

Chris Baumgart

Lynn Knoop

Mark Baxter

Greg Kraft

James Bell

Steve LaVaute

Mary Bell

Kean Matthams

Sarah Bouchier

Sharon Matthams

Paul Brocchini

Kris McAulay

Kris Butler

Doug McKenzie

Peter Butler

Linda Miller

Christine Chin

Vicki & Bill Mitchell

Susan Clark

Shelly Mitchell Lynch

Lisa Talley Dean

Jamal Noorzoy

Kim DiBenedetto

Christina Pappas

Elizabeth Dini

Judie Profeta

Mark Duchesne

Chris Pryor

Bobbie Ehrenpreis

Melanie Rolfe Rosen

Bill Faber

Mark Ryan

Maria Finkle

Connie Snowdon

Susan Freeland

Ed Stellingsma

Michelle Hammons

Judy Tollner

Christine Handel

Carla White

Malone Hodges

Rhonda Williams