Implementing a Smart Approach to Ensure Sustainable Red Hind and Lobster Fishing

Adapting to Extreme Events in the U.S. Caribbean: Implementing a Smart Approach to Ensure Sustainable Red Hind and Lobster Fishing Robert Glazer, Alejandro Acosta, Manoj Shivlani, Michael Flaxman Gulf and Caribbean Fisheries Institute bob.glazer@gcfi.org

Step 9 Managers/Scientists

Monitor for Effectiveness and Reevaluate

Step 8 Managers/Scientists

SMART CLIMATE CYCLE

Step 1 Identify Management Question

Managers

Implement Management Action

Step 2

Reevaluate

Step 7 Managers/Scientists*

Determine Meaningful Scenarios Monitor for Triggerpoints

Step 3

Step 6 Managers/Scientists

Examine the Science Identify Triggerpoints

Step 5 Prioritize Adaptation Options

Identify Adaptation Options Managers/Scientists

Step 4

Scientists

Scientists

Step 9 Managers/Scientists

Monitor for Effectiveness and Reevaluate

Step 8 Managers/Scientists

Step 1 Identify Management Question Managers

Implement Management Action

Step 2

Reevaluate

Step 7 Managers/Scientists*

Determine Meaningful Scenarios Monitor for Triggerpoints

Step 3

Step 6 Managers/Scientists

Examine the Science Identify Triggerpoints

Step 5 Prioritize Adaptation Options

Identify Adaptation Options Managers/Scientists

Step 4

Scientists

Scientists

Primary Goal: Identify Adaptation options to Ensure the

Sustainability of Red Hind and Spiny Lobster fisheries in the U.S. Caribbean by Identifying and Examining Alternative Future Scenarios Secondary Goals: 1. Prioritize adaptation options 2. Identify trigger points for adaptation implementation 3. Create a monitoring plan to identify when trigger points have been reached

Step 9 Managers/Scientists

Monitor for Effectiveness and Reevaluate

Step 8 Managers/Scientists

Step 1 Identify Management Question

Managers

Implement Management Action

Step 2

Reevaluate

Determine Meaningful Scientists Scenarios

Step 7 Managers/Scientists*

Monitor for Triggerpoints

Step 3

Step 6 Managers/Scientists

Examine the Science Identify Triggerpoints

Step 5 Prioritize Adaptation Options

Identify Adaptation Options Managers/Scientists

Step 4

Scientists

A Hypothetical Scenario

Visualizing an Uncertain Future Current Conditions

Future Conditions

Environmental Change SSP1-1.9 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5

Water Currents Sea Surface Temperature Sea Level Rise Runoff (i.e. hydrology) OA

Governance

Legislative Enforcement

Fisher Perspectives Economic Drivers Alternative Livelihoods Local Economies

Socio Economics

IPCC AR6 Scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs)

The scenarios combine greenhouse gas emissions pathways with socioeconomic factors •SSP1-1.9 (Green Growth): Best-case scenario, limits warming to around 1.5°C by 2100. Requires emissions to decline immediately and Net Zero to be reached by 2050. Low population growth, high education, rapid technology development, and low inequality.

•SSP1-2.6 (Sustainability): Optimistic scenario; holds warming below 2°C, requiring significant decarbonization. Trends continue near historical patterns, with moderate development.

•SSP2-4.5 (Middle of the Road): Emissions remain around current levels for several decades before declining, but do not reach net-zero by 2100. Low-income growth, slow technological change, high population growth, and high emissions.

•SSP3-7.0 (Dangerous): High emissions and high, steady temperature increases. Significant disparities in income, education, and technology access, with low adaptation in developing regions.

•SSP5-8.5 (Fossil-fueled Development): Worst-case scenario; CO2 emissions double by 2050. High income growth, rapid technological progress, and high energy demand based on fossil fuels.

IPCC AR6 Scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs) The scenarios combine greenhouse gas emissions pathways with socioeconomic factors •SSP1-1.9 (Green Growth): Best-case scenario, limits warming to around 1.5°C by 2100. Requires emissions to decline immediately and Net Zero to be reached by 2050. Low population growth, high education, rapid technology development, and low inequality.

•SSP1-2.6 (Sustainability): Optimistic scenario; holds warming below 2°C, requiring significant decarbonization. Trends continue near historical patterns, with moderate development.

•SSP2-4.5 (Middle of the Road): Emissions remain around current levels for several decades before declining, but do not reach net-zero by 2100. Low-income growth, slow technological change, high population growth, and high emissions.

•SSP3-7.0 (Dangerous): High emissions and high, steady temperature increases. Significant disparities in income, education, and technology access, with low adaptation in developing regions.

•SSP5-8.5 (Fossil-fueled Development): Worst-case scenario; CO2 emissions double by 2050. High income growth, rapid technological progress, and high energy demand based on fossil fuels.

Step 9 Managers/Scientists

Monitor for Effectiveness and Reevaluate

Step 8 Managers/Scientists

Step 1 Identify Management Question

Managers

Implement Management Action

Step 2

Reevaluate

Step 7 Managers/Scientists*

Determine Meaningful Scenarios Monitor for Triggerpoints

Step 3 Examine the Science

Step 6 Managers/Scientists

Identify Triggerpoints

Step 5 Prioritize Adaptation Options

Identify Adaptation Options Managers/Scientists

Scientists Step 4

Scientists

Scenario –Based Habitat Changes (SLR)

Scenario-Based Changing SST courtesy NOAA-AOML

Step 9 Managers/Scientists

Monitor for Effectiveness and Reevaluate

Step 8 Managers/Scientists

Step 1 Identify Management Question

Managers

Implement Management Action

Step 2

Reevaluate

Step 7 Managers/Scientists*

Determine Meaningful Scenarios Monitor for Triggerpoints

Step 3

Step 6 Managers/Scientists

Examine the Science Identify Triggerpoints

Step 5 Prioritize Adaptation Options

Identify Adaptation Options Step 4 Managers/Scientists

Scientists

Scientists

SPECIES’ VULNERABILITIES

Environmental Change SSP1-1.9 SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5

Governance

Socio Economics

Adaptation Options – The Beer Drinking Phase

Step 9 Managers/Scientists

Monitor for Effectiveness and Reevaluate

Step 8 Managers/Scientists

Step 1 Identify Management Question

Managers

Implement Management Action

Step 2

Reevaluate

Step 7 Managers/Scientists*

Determine Meaningful Scenarios Monitor for Triggerpoints

Step 3

Step 6 Managers/Scientists

Examine the Science Identify Triggerpoints

Step 5

Prioritize Adaptation Options

Identify Adaptation Options Managers/Scientists

Step 4

Scientists

Scientists

* criteria coming from the "KeysMAP" project

Community Acceptance

Equal impacts on population

Technically Feasible*

Secondary Impacts

Habitat Restoration

Staff competency

Maintenance/Operations Needs*

Political Support

Public Support

State and Federal Authority

Existing Local Authority

Land use Policy S3

Benefit of Action

Cost of Action ($) *

Contributes to Economic Goals

Financial sustainability

Effect on Land/ Water

Consistent with Community Environmental Goals

TOT. SCORE S3 (Proactive Plus)

STAPLEE METHODOLOGY Technical Administrative Political Legal

Charlotte Harbor

Temperature stressor Increase vegetation cover along shoreline and along tributaries to provide shade and to reduce evotranspiration S More shading along ponds, ditches and canals to moderate temps of stormwater flow within drainage systems into bay S Design water discharge to focus on historically important areas of the critical life-history stages of these fish NS Reduce shoreline hardening; increase living shorelines S, NS Hybrid shorelines where natural shorelines are put oceanside of the hardened shorelines S Divert cooler deepwater to coastal areas S Eliminate unnatural features that minimize water circulation S, NS Manage for high temperature-sensitive fish NS

Geographic area

Tampa Bay

STRATEGY

Structural (S), non-structural (NS)

Adaptation Action Prioritization Coffee Drinking Phase

x

x

3

2

3

3

2

1

2

3

3

3

3

2

3

2

3

2

2

3

45

x

x

2

2

3

2

3

1

2

3

2

3

2

1

2

3

3

3

3

3

43

x

x

3

1

2

3

3

2

3

2

1

3

1

1

3

3

3

1

3

3

41

x

x

2

1

2

2

3

2

1

3

3

3

2

1

3

1

2

3

3

3

40

x x

x x

2 2

2 2

3 2

2 3

3 3

3 2

3 1

3 2

3 2

3 3

3 1

2 2

3 2

2 1

2 3

3 2

3 3

3 2

48 38

x x

x x

2 2

1 1

3 1

3 2

3 3

1 1

1 1

3 2

2 2

3 2

2 2

1 2

2 2

1 2

2 3

2 1

2 3

2 3

36 35

Social

Easy / Yes / Low Medium / Maybe / Medium Unfeasible / No / High

3 2 1

Economic

Environment

Non-structural strategy: Does not change the natural hazard, but involves preventative actions such as policy or management, that improve infrastructure to reduce the damages or improve coordination of resources.

Structural strategy: Inhibit a natural hazard through construction such as a sea wall, or physically improve a condition of the environment.

Step 9 Managers/Scientists

Monitor for Effectiveness and Reevaluate

Step 8 Managers/Scientists

Step 1 Identify Management Question

Managers

Implement Management Action

Step 2

Reevaluate

Step 7

Determine Meaningful Scenarios

Managers/Scientists*

Monitor for Triggerpoints

Step 6

Managers/ Scientists

Identify Triggerpoints Step 5 Prioritize Adaptation Options

Step 3 Examine the Science

Identify Adaptation Options Managers/Scientists

Step 4

Scientists

Scientists

TRIGGERPOINTS Impact Triggers:

KeysMAP2

Sea Surface Temperature Trigger (average temperature over any fifteen day period): Low Tolerance Species: 27.6 C Moderate Tolerance Species: 34.2 C High Tolerance Species: 47.5 C Salinity Trigger (average salinity over any thirty day period): Low Tolerance Species: 36.1 ppt Moderate Tolerance Species: 42.75 ppt High Tolerance Species: 66.5 ppt Shoreline Change Trigger: Moderate erosion, 0.6 m/yr or greater loss of substrate Saline Wetland Extent Trigger: Total rate of loss (acres) greater than, or equal to, a half percent annually, based on comparison to the total acreage of saline wetlands for the previous year Mangrove Accretion Trigger: An annual increased value of vertical accretion that is equal to or less than current annual SLR measurements

Step 9 Managers/Scientists

Monitor for Effectiveness and Reevaluate

Step 8 Managers/Scientists

Step 1 Identify Management Question

Managers

Implement Management Action

Step 2

Reevaluate

Step 7 Determine Meaningful Scenarios

Monitor for Triggerpoints Managers/Scientists*

Step 3

Step 6 Managers/Scientists

Examine the Science Identify Triggerpoints

Step 5 Prioritize Adaptation Options

Identify Adaptation Options Managers/Scientists

Step 4

Scientists

Scientists

IMPLEMENTATION

Determine Approach to Overcome Priority Barriers

Overcome Barriers to Implementation

Cross Discipline Team

Prioritize Barriers to Overcome

Identify Barriers to Implementation

A KeysMAP Example (spiny lobster)

…under Sea Level Rise

Questions?