Veterans Corner

Commentary by John Kearns, USCG Ret., chiefkearns@gmail.com

Russia and Ukraine One Year Later: A year has passed since the Russian Bear invaded the smaller “Ukrainian Nightingale.” So, where does the war stand?

The Carnegie Endowment for World Peace sums it up: “A year into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine, Russia has suffered a major strategic defeat, Ukraine has achieved a major strategic victory, and the West has demonstrated a combination of resolve, unity, and cohesion that few had expected.” This, however, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, is not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning. The war continues with no end in sight. Neither side is ready to negotiate. Both are preparing to launch major offensives in the near future.

Neither side has achieved a major breakthrough in recent months that would change the course of the war. Whereas Russia’s failure to win in a blitzkrieg prompted many predictions of Ukraine’s imminent victory.

Ukrainians, having tasted victory on the battlefield and united in their desire for justice and revenge, cannot accept a land-for-peace compromise. For Putin, whose war it is primarily, compromise is not an option after the humiliation of the failed campaign in pursuit of his maximalist objectives. This war was not existential for him when he began it, but it is now. He has staked his entire presidency on it and must win it. He is preparing for a long war.

Russia is preparing for a big Spring Offensive, boasting a surge of 500,000 troops for renewed fighting. The problem is 70% of Russia’s military is already in Ukraine trying to hold on, while the 500,000 will be made up from conscripts, emptying prisons, and mercenaries hired to fight for one man’s ego. They received six months training and will be thrown into the fight against experienced Ukraine combat veterans