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MODERN HISTORY

TRANSFORMED SECOND EDITION

Daryl Le Cornu, Kay Carroll, Christopher Bradbury Stephen Powell, Troy Neale, Jack Morel

11 NSW STAGE 6

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The twenty-first century: constructing history in an era of digital transformation

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FOCUS

By using a range of historical sources, you will investigate how historians construct and reconstruct accounts of the early twenty-first century. You will focus on the challenges of writing very recent history, particularly in Australia, the United States and the wider world, and examine how evidence, interpretation and perspective shape modern historical narratives.

KEY ISSUES

You will explore: •

How modern histories are constructed and reconstructed using political, social, cultural and digital sources

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The limitations, reliability and contestability of sources, particularly in digital environments

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Different types of sources used by historians of recent history, including government records, media reporting, social media, oral testimony and digital archives

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Where historians find evidence for modern history and how access to classified or restricted materials affects reconstruction

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How historians use sources to develop understandings of people, events and places in the early twenty-first century

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The issues associated with reconstructing the recent past through contemporary written texts, digital media and rapidly produced commentary

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How historians compare the past and present to identify continuity, change and structural shifts

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The ways history is preserved, recorded and transmitted in the digital age

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The threats to accurate reconstruction posed by misinformation, political messaging and algorithmdriven amplification

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How competing interpretations shape public understanding of recent events

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Dissolution of the Soviet Union

2000

Sydney Olympic Games

2001

Tampa affair in Australia

2001

11 September terrorist attacks in the United States

2001

US-led invasion of Afghanistan begins

2003

US-led invasion of Iraq

2007

Introduction of the iPhone and rapid expansion of smartphones

2008

Global Financial Crisis

2008

Barack Obama elected President of the United States

2010–12

Arab Spring uprisings

2014

Russia annexes Crimea

2016

Brexit referendum

2016

Donald J. Trump elected US President

2019–20

Black Summer bushfires in Australia

2020

COVID-19 pandemic declared

2021

6 January attack on the US Capitol

2021

AUKUS security partnership announced

2022

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine

2022

ChatGPT released – public adoption of generative AI begins

2023

Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum (Australia)

2024

US presidential election

2025

Donald Trump inaugurated for a second term

2026

US midterm elections

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TIMELINE

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Suggested responses Download or answer questions online Writing focus worksheets

Writing focus workbook Exam Generator Planning documents

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3.1 Introduction: constructing a history of the twenty-first century DRIVING QUESTION

Why construct recent history at all?

It can feel as though the present is not yet “history”. However, many of the forces shaping the world today – geopolitical conflict, digital transformation, climate change and populist politics – have developed over the past three decades and continue to evolve.

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digital transformation the large-scale shift from analogue to digital technologies, changing how information is created, stored, shared and interpreted

Why is constructing an evidence-based history of the twenty-first century both necessary and difficult?

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populist appealing to “ordinary people” by claiming to defend their interests against elites or governments

annexation the formal incorporation of one territory into another state, usually by force or without the consent of the population

The Russo–Ukrainian War, which began with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and escalated with a full-scale invasion in 2022, is one example of an ongoing event whose causes and consequences are still unfolding. Its outcome will shape international relations for years to come. It is already part of history, even though it is not yet complete.

Constructing an evidence-based history of the present is necessary because contemporary events influence political decisions, public debate and international relations. However, it is also difficult because the volume and velocity of evidence in the digital age are unprecedented.

Source 3.1.1 A serviceman kneels beside a makeshift memorial for Ukrainian and foreign fighters at Independence Square in Kyiv, 24 February 2025, marking the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion Digital-only chapters • Cambridge University Press & Assessment © Le Cornu, et al 2026 • 978-1-009-83909-9 • (03) 8671 1400

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Digital platforms generate vast archives of text, images and video, yet they also shape what is seen, shared and remembered. Information is fragmented, contested and sometimes manipulated. Constructing recent history therefore requires deliberate effort. It requires selecting reliable sources, placing events in context and distinguishing interpretation from distortion.

What does it mean to construct history?

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History is constructed from surviving evidence. Historians select, interpret and organise sources to develop explanations about people, places and events of the past.

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In the twenty-first century, evidence is abundant, immediate and highly visible. This abundance is part of a broader process often described as digital transformation – the large-scale shift in how societies communicate, store information and participate in public life through digital technologies. For those born after 2010, sometimes referred to as Generation Alpha, this transformation is not a transition but the normal environment in which they have grown up.

Constructing a history of the twenty-first century presents particular challenges.

Unlike ancient history – where evidence may be scarce – modern history produces an overwhelming volume of material. The task is not locating evidence but evaluating and contextualising it.

Reconstructing the recent past requires careful judgement about: • • • •

which sources are reliable which voices are amplified or suppressed how digital platforms shape what survives how memory and emotion influence interpretation.

The same event may be understood differently depending on the evidence selected and the questions asked. Historians who apply this approach to contemporary events demonstrate how the past provides context for interpreting the present.

amplification the process by which ideas, messages or voices are increased in visibility or influence, often through media or digital algorithms

Source 3.1.2 Historians Ilaria Bellatti and Judit Sabido-Codina on “Historical time”

Study of the past should give us the ability to appreciate historical perspective, to place the events around us within a context, and to understand our passage through the world as part of a larger, interrelated whole.

Ilaria Bellatti, Judit Sabido-Codina. 2025. “‘Historical time’ helps students truly understand the complexity of the past – and how they fit into it”, The Conversation, 4 September.

Types of sources in modern history

Historians of the twenty-first century draw on a wide range of sources, including: • • • • • • • • • •

government documents and policy papers diplomatic cables and international agreements speeches and public statements media reporting social media posts podcasts and digital commentary photographs and video footage oral history interviews statistical data memoirs and autobiographies.

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e-history digital media products that package elements of the past for online audiences, including YouTube videos, podcasts, blogs, social media threads and Wikipedia entries

These sources are not equal in reliability or evidentiary weight. A peer-reviewed article, a political speech, a viral post and an AI-generated summary each serve different purposes. Historians analyse origin, purpose, audience, method and context before drawing conclusions. They corroborate claims across multiple types of evidence rather than relying on a single source or automated output.

This principle applies especially to e-history products and AI-generated material.

Some digital content is produced by trained historians and grounded in careful research, with clear referencing and transparent interpretation. Other material prioritises entertainment, persuasion or rapid engagement over accuracy and nuance.

For their part, AI tools, while powerful, generate text by identifying statistical patterns in language rather than independently verifying evidence. Confident presentation or fluency does not guarantee reliability.

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weaponise to use an idea, narrative or historical interpretation strategically to attack opponents, shape opinion or gain political advantage

Increasingly, historians also use what is sometimes called e-history and digital research tools, including artificial intelligence (AI) systems that generate summaries or analyse large datasets.

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In recent years, history has increasingly become contested and, at times, weaponised.

Messages can be amplified by social media algorithms and, increasingly, by mainstream media outlets. This makes the ability to discern evidence from opinion, and interpretation from distortion, an essential civic skill. Learning to think critically about sources is therefore not only an academic requirement. It is also part of becoming an informed and active citizen.

RESEARCH 3.1

Constructing history in the age of AI

Artificial intelligence tools can generate instant summaries of historical events. However, they do not independently verify evidence or interpret sources in the way historians do.

Large language models generate text by predicting the most likely sequence of words based on patterns in vast datasets.

1. Choose a recent significant event (e.g. the COVID lockdowns, the Bondi Beach shooting or the January 6 US Capitol attack).

2. Ask an AI tool to explain its significance. Save the full response.

3. Identify three factual claims in the response and verify them using reliable sources.

4. What evidence does the AI refer to directly? What evidence is implied but not cited?

5. Research briefly how AI language models generate text. In your own words, explain what it means to predict the “most likely sequence of words”.

6. Summarise your findings as a paragraph, responding to the following prompt: How does AI change the process of constructing modern history? What are its strengths and limitations as a research tool?

Historical concepts: Significance, Contestability Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources, Historical interpretation

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Difficulties in reconstructing recent history Volume and velocity

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The sheer speed of events can create the impression that history is accelerating.

Political crises, elections, conflicts and social movements unfold in real time on digital platforms. The rapid turnover of headlines makes it difficult to distinguish short-term drama from long-term structural change. For historians, the challenge is not only managing volume but also identifying which developments will endure as historically significant.

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The internet was once described as an “information superhighway”. Today, historians face an avalanche of information. Material circulates globally within seconds, often detached from its original context. Misleading or false claims can spread widely before they are verified, corrected or removed.

Amplification and narrative control

Digital platforms reward attention. Claims that are dramatic, polarising or emotionally charged often travel further than careful analysis. Political actors sometimes attempt to dominate public discussion through strategies such as flooding the zone, deliberately overwhelming the information environment with messaging in order to drown out opposition voices.

In some cases, narrative inversion – portraying victims as perpetrators or reframing events to suit political interests – becomes a strategy for shaping public perception. When evidence-based reality is challenged in this way, historical thinking becomes essential.

Historical amnesia

Historical amnesia refers to the loss or neglect of knowledge about the past. The historian Tony Judt described an “age of forgetting” in which public debate loses historical depth. Writing in the years after the end of the Cold War, Judt argued that societies can become so focused on immediate concerns that they stop examining the longer-term forces that shaped them.

Without historical context, contemporary developments can appear unprecedented or disconnected from earlier patterns. Events may be framed as entirely new, when in fact they reflect longer-term continuities in political movements, economic pressures or social tensions. Historical comparison provides what Judt called a moral and analytical language with which to judge the present.

Historical amnesia can arise for several reasons. Societies may wish to move on quickly from traumatic events. Rapid news cycles can cause attention to shift before deeper reflection occurs. In some cases, past events may be selectively remembered, downplayed or reframed to suit particular political narratives. Digital environments, where information is constantly updated and older material is pushed out of view, can reinforce this tendency. Constructing an evidence-based history of recent decades is therefore not only about recording events. It is also about preserving context so that present developments can be understood in relation to the past.

flood the zone a tactic to dominate public discussion by overwhelming the information environment with messaging narrative inversion changing the story of an event so that those harmed are presented as responsible, often to influence public opinion or justify political actions historical amnesia the loss, neglect or suppression of knowledge about the past, weakening society’s ability to interpret present events in context Cold War the period of political and ideological tension between the United States and the Soviet Union and their allies from 1945 to 1991, marked by rivalry without direct large-scale military conflict between the two superpowers

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Source 3.1.3 Neo-Nazis, alt-right activists and white supremacists march with tiki torches through the University of Virginia campus the night before the “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia. Knowledge of earlier extremist movements provides historical context for evaluating such events.

ANALYSIS 3.1

Navigating contested evidence

1. Identify two factors in this section that make reconstructing recent history difficult.

2. How does digital technology both preserve and distort historical evidence?

3. Why might modern written texts – such as opinion articles or social media posts – require careful contextualisation?

4. How can historical comparison help evaluate claims that the present is uniquely unstable?

Historical concepts: Contestability, Continuity and change Historical skills: Historical interpretation

Memory as historical evidence

flashbulb memory a vivid memory of where you were and what you were doing when you heard dramatic news

Modern history is shaped not only by documents but also by lived memory.

Psychologist Lisa Genova describes flashbulb memories as vivid recollections of emotionally significant events. These memories often form when individuals hear dramatic or shocking news and can remain strikingly detailed years later.

Flashbulb memories connect us directly to the flow of history. They remind us that the events discussed in textbooks were once people’s immediate experiences. People often remember where they were, who they were with and how they felt when major events occurred. In this way, flashbulb memories reinforce the idea that the history we are living through now is no less significant than other periods in the past.

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RESEARCH 3.2

1. Interview a family member or classmate about a significant event they experienced (e.g. the COVID-19 pandemic or a major political event).

2. Record their recollection of where they were, how they felt and what they remember most clearly.

3. Compare their memory with a contemporary news report of the same event.

4. Identify similarities and differences. What does this suggest about memory as historical evidence?

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Historical concepts: Perspectives, Significance Historical skills: Historical investigation and research, Explanation and communication

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Memory and reconstruction

However, memory is selective and shaped by later interpretation. What people recall may be influenced by media coverage, conversations or changing personal beliefs. For this reason, memory must be treated as historical evidence rather than unquestioned fact.

Oral history interviews, memorials and community projects are ways in which societies preserve recent history. They contribute to reconstruction, but must also be evaluated critically. Preservation reflects choices about what a society decides to remember and how it presents the past.

Why professional expertise matters Journalists are often described as producing the “first draft of history”.

Their reporting becomes part of the historical record. Historians contribute something different. They bring subject expertise, contextual knowledge and established methods of inquiry. They corroborate evidence across multiple sources, identify patterns over time and test claims against verifiable data.

In an environment where information circulates rapidly and interpretation is contested, professional historical expertise becomes more important, not less. Careful scholarship helps distinguish between interpretation, error and deliberate distortion. However, in recent years, some public historians have faced organised campaigns of criticism or harassment for engaging in contemporary debate.

Source 3.1.4 Stephanie A. Martin has produced four books about American democracy, including Columns to Character: The Presidency and the Press in the Digital Age (2018), Decoding the Digital Church: Evangelical Storytelling and the Election of Donald J. Trump (2021) and The Future is Now (2024), a book for teachers celebrating Senator Frank Church’s centennial. She works closely with K-12 educators to support meaningful civic instruction.

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Source 3.1.5 Historian Stephanie A. Martin on The Professor Watchlist

The Professor Watchlist has been denounced by faculty associations as a blacklist that chills academic freedom. Journalistic investigations by outlets such as The New Yorker raised questions about Turning Point’s finances, including allegations of blurred lines between nonprofit educational work and partisan campaigning.

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Stephanie A Martin. 2025. “Who was Charlie Kirk? The activist who turned campus politics into national influence”, The Conversation, 11 September.

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The Professor Watchlist website, created by the conservative group Turning Point USA and referred to by Stephanie Martin, lobbied for the removal of university teachers who Turning Point said were anti-American, including historians who taught about racism.

Source 3.1.6 US Vice President JD Vance at a 2026 Turning Point event

When historians are challenged or targeted for their interpretations, the need for careful evidence-based analysis becomes even more important. Professional historical expertise does not eliminate disagreement, but it does provide structured methods for evaluating competing claims.

Constructing modern history therefore requires both critical readers and trained historians. Navigating abundant and contested sources demands skill, discipline and expertise.

REVIEW 3.1

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Writing focus 3.1 Question words

Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Explain why constructing an evidence-based history of the twenty-first century is necessary.

2. Analyse why constructing recent history is particularly difficult in the digital age.

3. Identify and explain three types of sources used in modern history, outlining one strength and one limitation of each.

4. Explain what is meant by “flooding the zone” and assess why it poses challenges for historians.

5. Explain the concept of historical amnesia.

6. Analyse how memory can both assist and complicate historical reconstruction.

7. Assess why professional historical expertise remains important in contested public debates.

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3.2 1990–2000: the best decade?

DRIVING QUESTIONS Why did many people view the 1990s as a decade of optimism?

How do historians evaluate whether that optimism was justified?

A new world order

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The 1990s decade saw the transition of the world away from the Cold War to a new world order. It also saw the start of a transition in many societies from analogue to digital technology. Many people adopted email, but continued to exchange physical posted mail. The internet was being constructed, but relied on slow dial-up connections and did not yet provide reliable access to all forms of information. Early-generation mobile phones were beginning to offer text messaging, but they had no “smart” features such as built-in apps, video calls or wireless Source 3.2.1 After a meeting in New York, from left, US Vice President George H.W. Bush, President Ronald Reagan and internet. People read printed newspapers and books, and typically got their news from scheduled television and radio Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev pose with the World Trade Center in the background on 7 December 1988. news programs. Written evidence was increasingly created on computer word-processing devices, but still printed and stored physically as paper copies or on local digital drives. Historians often rely on copies of this kind of evidence that were later digitised and catalogued using post-1990s technology.

When historians reconstruct the 1990s, they draw on diplomatic records, United Nations speeches, economic data, media reporting, memoirs and later declassified government documents. The interpretation of the decade depends not only on what happened, but also on which sources are emphasised and how long-term consequences are assessed. The following section draws on a range of such sources to examine how the decade has been interpreted and why historians continue to debate its significance.

Hope at the end of the Cold War

With the end of the Cold War, many believed the world was entering a more stable and secure era. A war between the great powers appeared less likely, and the fear of nuclear conflict receded.

Source 3.2.2 Quotes from Mikhail Gorbachev: “Progress will be based on the interests of all mankind.” – United Nations speech 1988

Progress will be based on the interests of all mankind.

Writing focus 3.2 Noun phrases (identify)

1. The world community must learn to shape and direct the process in such a way as to preserve civilization, to make it safe for all and more pleasant for normal life.

2. There are now no people in places of imprisonment in the country who have been sentenced for their political or religious convictions.

Mikhail Gorbachev. 1988. “Progress will be based on the interests of all mankind.” Address to the United Nations General Assembly, 7 December, New York.

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In 1991, the Soviet Union formally dissolved into 15 independent states. Russia, which had dominated the other republics, was now a reduced power, though it still possessed thousands of nuclear weapons. The United States emerged as the sole superpower, and its economy entered its longest period of peacetime expansion to that point.

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When conflicts arose, there was renewed confidence in the United Nations.

Peacekeeping operations were authorised under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.

Significant missions took place in Cambodia (1991) and East Timor (1999), both involving Australian forces.

Source 3.2.3 People gather along the Berlin Wall after the opening of the border on 9 November 1989, in Berlin, Germany.

There was also an increase in democracies during the 1990s, often accompanied by market reforms as communism receded.

Globalisation accelerated through trade, travel and new international institutions.

The internet was emerging but had not yet reshaped daily life or politics. Many believed the future would be more peaceful, prosperous and interconnected than the past.

peacekeeping the use of international forces, usually under United Nations authority, to help maintain or restore peace in conflict zones market reform government policy designed to reduce state control of the economy and encourage private enterprise, competition and free markets globalisation the increasing interconnectedness of countries through trade, finance, migration, communication and cultural exchange

Source 3.2.4 In 1999, Australia’s General Peter Cosgrove was appointed as commander of the UN peacekeeping mission in East Timor. In 2014, he was appointed Governor-General of Australia.

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ANALYSIS 3.2 Analysing significance 1. Identify three pieces of evidence that suggest the early 1990s were a period of optimism.

2. Which types of sources are used here to support this interpretation (e.g. speeches, photographs, institutional records)?

3. How does the photograph of Reagan, Bush and Gorbachev function as historical evidence? What can it show, and what can it not show?

4. To what extent might hindsight influence how historians interpret the end of the Cold War?

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Historical concepts: Significance, Perspectives Historical skills: Historical interpretation

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The decade of human rights

The 1990s were often described as a decade of human rights because of developments in international law and institutions. The 1993 Vienna World Conference on Human Rights reinforced the universality of human rights and influenced domestic policy debates, including in Australia. The spread of democracies across Eastern Europe, Latin America and South Africa reinforced the belief that human rights were central to a liberal international order based on representative government.

However, the decade also saw genocide in Yugoslavia and Rwanda. Although international action was eventually taken, it was not swift enough to prevent largescale loss of life. In response, international war crimes tribunals were established for Yugoslavia and Rwanda. Humanitarian interventions also occurred in Bosnia and Kosovo.

These developments illustrate a tension in reconstructing the 1990s: evidence of optimism and institutional development sits alongside evidence of failure and violence. Historical interpretation depends on how these strands are weighed.

liberal international order the system of international cooperation after 1945 based on multilateral institutions, open markets, alliances and shared rules humanitarian intervention military or political action taken by one or more states to prevent or respond to serious human rights abuses in another country

RESEARCH 3.3

Investigating a 1990s primary source

Locate one primary source from the 1990s related to international human rights (e.g. a UN resolution, a speech from the Vienna Conference, or a government statement about Bosnia or Rwanda).

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Identify the origin, purpose and context of the source.

What does the source reveal about how leaders at the time understood human rights?

What limitations does this source have as evidence of what actually occurred?

How might later events influence how historians interpret this source?

Historical concepts: Perspectives, Contestability Historical skills: Historical investigation and research, Analysis and use of sources

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Australia’s achievements As Australia emerged from recession in the early 1990s, both Paul Keating’s Labor government (1991–96) and John Howard’s Coalition government (1996–2007) pursued microeconomic reform, deregulation and privatisation. By the late 1990s, the economy was experiencing sustained growth.

• the Mabo decision (1992) • the Native Title Act (1993) • the Wik decision (1996).

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There were landmark First Nations legal developments, including:

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

In 1996, the Port Arthur massacre led to sweeping national gun control reforms agreed to by federal and state governments. In 1999, Australia led the UN intervention in East Timor. The Sydney Olympics in 2000 showcased Australia internationally as a modern, multicultural democracy.

Source 3.2.5 A general view from the Opening Ceremony of the Olympic Games at the Olympic Stadium in Homebush Bay, Sydney, on 15 September 2000 bipolar of a global power structure dominated by two rival superpowers

unipolar moment the post–Cold War era, roughly from 1991 until the rise of significant peer competitors, when the United States stood as the world’s dominant power without an equal rival

The “unipolar moment”

For nearly 50 years of the Cold War, the international system was described as bipolar, centred on the Soviet Union and the United States. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the United States stood as the sole superpower. Historians and international affairs scholars describe this period as the unipolar moment.

However, this period of dominance was unlikely to last indefinitely. Other countries, particularly China, were growing rapidly.

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Source 3.2.6 Mikhail Gorbachev speaking in Sydney, 27 May 1999

Notes taken by author during speech in Sydney, 27 May 1999

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

The question remains whether the United States used this period to strengthen international institutions and create a more durable global system. In 1999, speaking in Sydney, Mikhail Gorbachev warned that the opportunity for cooperative reform was being lost.

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At the end of the Cold War we talked of reforming the UN Security Council and the UN. We had a way to unite many countries. But this process was interrupted by the United States after the break-up of the USSR. The US now has a superiority complex and are trying to build a world with a single power centre.

It has failed and is rejected by many Americans. So, the problems is in the White House. I urge the United States to return to the policies that ended the Cold War. ... We need a world order developed in cooperation with all nations.

Some historians later argued that the United States acted with overconfidence during this period and did not fully consolidate a cooperative global framework.

International affairs scholar Charles Kupchan, writing in 2002, argued that American leaders risked weakening international legitimacy by favouring unilateral action over sustained institutional reform. From his perspective, the durability of US dominance depended on strengthening multilateral institutions rather than assuming continued primacy.

In 2002, historian Charlie Kupchan suggested that the period of overwhelming American power was steadily coming to an end. His book The End of the American Era: US Foreign Policy and the Geopolitics of the Twenty-First Century argues that the United States’ global influence is in decline, leading to a return of multipolarity. As a result, Kupchan predicts that strategic competition between major powers is likely to re-emerge, causing “geopolitical fault lines” between major powers like North America, Europe and East Asia. The “central challenge for [the] US”, in Kupchan’s view, will be handling the consequences of these strained international relationships.

unilateral acting alone in foreign policy rather than in cooperation with other countries multilateral involving cooperation between multiple countries

Source 3.2.7 Mikhail Gorbachev, during during a press conference in Sydney, 27 May 1999

From the perspective of the 2020s, historians continue to debate whether the 1990s represented a missed opportunity or whether structural forces made a lasting unipolar order unlikely.

Comparing the optimism of the 1990s with the instability and geopolitical tension of the 2020s highlights how historical interpretation shifts over time. What appeared to many as a stable and cooperative international order now looks, from a later vantage point, more fragile and contingent. Such comparisons demonstrate how historians reassess the past in light of subsequent developments.

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Source 3.2.8 Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev (left) and US President George H.W. Bush (right) hold a joint press conference at the White House, 3 June 1990.

ANALYSIS 3.3

Interpreting historical judgement

1. What evidence in this section supports the idea that the 1990s were a period of US dominance?

2. How does Gorbachev’s 1999 speech function as evidence in evaluating US foreign policy?

3. Assess how historians in recent years have interpreted the idea that the United States experienced a “unipolar moment” and failed to capitalise on it.

4. Identify differing interpretations of how the United States could have made more effective use of its “unipolar moment”.

Historical concepts: Contestability, Significance Historical skills: Historical interpretation

REVIEW 3.2

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Online quiz

Review questions

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1. Identify two developments that contributed to optimism at the end of the Cold War. What types of sources are used in this section to support that interpretation?

2. Using the Gorbachev UN speech extract, explain what vision of international order he was promoting in 1988. How reliable is a speech as evidence of political change?

3. The 1990s are sometimes described as a “decade of human rights”. Using evidence from this section, explain why this label is used and identify one piece of evidence that complicates this interpretation.

4. Compare Australia’s experience in the 1990s with the broader global trends described in this section. In what ways did Australia reflect global patterns, and in what ways was it distinct?

5. Explain what historians mean by the term “unipolar moment”. What evidence from this section supports the idea that the United States held unmatched power in the 1990s?

6. Assess why the interpretation that the United States “squandered” its unipolar moment remains contested. Explain what additional types of sources would help evaluate this claim.

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3.3 2001–2008: a decade of disruption DRIVING QUESTIONS How did international events influence Australia in the early twenty-first century?

How did the US response to 9/11 reshape global politics?

The start of a new millennium

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Many people approached 2000–01 with a sense of expectation, because it marked the start of a new millennium. It had been commonplace for people to talk about what might be possible “by the year 2000”, which initially seemed to be a distant future. Would there be flying cars? Hoverboards? Robots? In fact, like other periods, changes were determined in part by technology and in part by contingencies, and there were many continuities with previous times. In the first decade of the new millennium, unpredicted events led to global shifts, and some of the innovations that came to define the first several decades of the twenty-first century were launched, including smartphones and the “internet 2.0” that allowed people to interact with online material and with each other, especially with the launch of social media platforms. Archivists had to innovate too, to make sure that at least some of the online content was stored in a way that recorded experiences, events and memories for future historians.

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At the beginning of 2001, Australia was in a relatively strong position. The country had benefited from the stability of the post–Cold War period, expanding global trade and enjoying sustained economic reform.

In domestic politics, debates about multiculturalism and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander reconciliation continued. Prime Minister John Howard had declined to issue a formal apology to the Stolen Generations, which remained a source of tension. Meanwhile, Pauline Hanson’s 1996 maiden speech to Parliament, in which she claimed Australia was being “swamped by Asians”, contributed to renewed populist debate about race and immigration. By 2001, that debate had intensified again through events linked to border protection.

When historians reconstruct this period, they draw on parliamentary debates, election speeches, media reporting, diplomatic communications and later historical analysis. Interpretations of the era depend on how these sources are selected and weighed.

Source 3.3.1 In August 2001, refugees bound for Australia were rescued from a distressed vessel stranded in the Indian Ocean by the Norwegian cargo ship MV Tampa. When John Howard refused to let the ship enter Australian waters, it set into motion one of the defining political stories of the decade.

Security, populism and the politics of borders

In 2001, border protection became one of the defining political issues in Australia.

The Tampa affair in August intensified existing debates about immigration, sovereignty and national identity. The federal government adopted a firm stance, arguing that it would control access to Australian territory and determine the conditions of entry.

sovereignty the authority of a state to govern itself without external interference

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SIGNIFICANT EVENT The Tampa affair

In August 2001, the Norwegian freighter MV Tampa rescued more than 400 asylum seekers from a distressed Indonesian fishing vessel in the Indian Ocean. The captain attempted to bring them to Christmas Island, which is administered by Australia, in accordance with maritime law.

The Australian government refused permission for the ship to dock. On 29 August 2001, Special Air Service (SAS) troops boarded the vessel. Emergency legislation followed, and asylum seekers were transferred to Nauru under what became known as the Pacific Solution. Many historians identify this episode as a turning point in Australian asylum policy.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

asylum seeker a person who seeks protection in another country because they fear persecution in their home country

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During the 2001 federal election campaign, Prime Minister Howard declared, “We will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come.” The statement struck a chord with sections of the electorate concerned about immigration and national control. The border protection debate, which built on earlier populist rhetoric from the late 1990s, became central to the campaign. Although the Coalition government had been trailing in opinion polls earlier in 2001, the border security issue helped consolidate support. Historians generally agree that it contributed to the Coalition’s comfortable victory in November, though debate continues over how decisive it was compared with other factors.

Pacific Solution an Australian policy introduced in 2001 that transferred asylum seekers arriving by boat to offshore processing centres in the Pacific

RESEARCH 3.4

Reconstructing the Tampa affair and the 2001 election

Using at least three different types of sources (e.g. parliamentary speeches, newspaper articles from 2001, opinion polls or later historical analyses) complete the following activities.

1. How was the Tampa affair presented by the Australian government in 2001?

2. How did media outlets describe the event at the time?

3. What evidence do historians use to assess whether the Tampa affair influenced the outcome of the 2001 federal election?

4. Why might interpretations of the event differ between contemporary reporting and later historical analysis?

Historical concepts: Causation, Contestability Historical skills: Historical investigation and research, Analysis and use of sources

9/11 and the reshaping of security politics

ANZUS Treaty a security agreement between Australia, New Zealand and the United States signed in 1951 Al-Qaeda a transnational Islamist extremist organisation responsible for the 9/11 terrorist attacks

On 11 September 2001, coordinated terrorist attacks were carried out against the United States. The event, widely referred to as 9/11, transformed global security priorities. Prime Minister John Howard was in Washington, DC on the day of the attacks and invoked the 1951 ANZUS Treaty, committing Australia to support the United States.

On 20 September 2001, President George W. Bush addressed the US Congress and declared a global “War on Terror”, outlining a new approach to US foreign and security policy. In October 2001, the United States began military operations in Afghanistan against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban regime that harboured it.

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Source 3.3.2 Australian Prime Minister John Howard meets US President George W. Bush at the White House on 10 September 2001.

The terrorist attacks occurred the following day.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

For historians, this sequence raises questions about causation. To what extent did 9/11 shift voter priorities? Did it amplify existing concerns about border protection, or create a new security framework through which those concerns were interpreted? The answers depend on how electoral data, media framing and political rhetoric are analysed.

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In Australia, the election campaign, already focused on border protection, became closely linked with concerns about terrorism and national security. Howard’s firm stance on both border control and alliance solidarity reinforced his image as a decisive leader. The Coalition secured a comfortable victory in November 2001.

SIGNIFICANT EVENT

9/11 and the declaration of the “War on Terror” On 11 September 2001, members of the extremist group al-Qaeda hijacked four commercial aircraft in the United . Two planes were flown into the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York City, one struck the Pentagon in Washington, DC, and a fourth crashed in Pennsylvania after passengers intervened. Nearly 3000 people were killed.

Writing focus 3.3 Noun phrases (identify and develop)

On 20 September 2001, President George W. Bush addressed a joint session of the US Congress. In this speech, he declared a global “War on Terror”, stating that the United States would pursue those responsible for the attacks and the Source 3.3.3 A hijacked United Airlines aircraft crashes governments that harboured them. into the south tower of the World Trade Center on 11 Military operations were launched September 2001 in New York City. against al-Qaeda and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan shortly thereafter. The United Nations Security Council supported action against al-Qaeda.

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Australia and global terrorism Australia’s encounter with global terrorism did not end with alliance commitments.

On 12 October 2002, bombings in Bali killed 88 Australians.

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The Bali bombing had a profound domestic impact. It intensified public concern about terrorism and led to expanded counterterrorism legislation and intelligence coordination. However, Australia’s response differed from that of the United States.

Rather than launching unilateral military action, Australian authorities worked closely with Indonesian police to identify and prosecute those responsible. This cooperation marked a strengthening of regional security partnerships.

The comparison between the US and Australian responses illustrates how shared global events can produce distinct national policy trajectories.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

The War on Terror and its consequences

The “War on Terror” shaped global politics for much of the decade. In the immediate aftermath of 9/11, the United States experienced a period of domestic political unity, and many countries expressed solidarity. Security became the dominant lens through which foreign policy was viewed.

Military operations began in Afghanistan in October 2001 with the stated aim of dismantling al-Qaeda and removing the Taliban regime that had sheltered it. At the time, the intervention was widely regarded as a justified response to terrorism. As the conflict extended over many years, however, debate grew about its objectives, costs and long-term outcomes. Twenty years later, when US forces withdrew and the Taliban returned almost immediately to power, historians reassessed the assumptions made in 2001.

The invasion of Iraq

weapons of mass destruction nuclear, chemical or biological weapons capable of causing widespread death and destruction

The conflict in Afghanistan marked only the beginning of a wider security campaign.

In 2003, the United States led an invasion of Iraq. The Bush administration argued that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction and posed a threat to international security. Public statements also implied connections between Iraq and those responsible for 9/11.

Subsequent investigations found no operational link between Saddam Hussein and the 9/11 attackers, and no stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction were discovered.

Critics later argued that intelligence had been overstated or misrepresented. Others suggested the invasion reflected a broader strategy to reshape the Middle East and demonstrate American power in a unipolar international system.

At the time of the invasion, much of the Democratic Party and significant sections of the mainstream media supported the intervention. Over time, as instability deepened in Iraq and sectarian violence escalated, historical judgement became more critical. The war contributed to political shifts within the United States, including the Democratic Party gaining control of Congress in the 2006 midterm elections. By the end of the decade, many historians described the invasion as a major foreign policy failure.

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Source 3.3.4 US Marines of Task Force Tarawa in the desert of Kuwait prepare to move north to invade Iraq, 19 March 2003.

ANALYSIS 3.4

Evaluating foreign policy decisions 1.

2.

3.

4.

How did 9/11 alter US foreign policy priorities?

What evidence was used to justify the invasion of Iraq?

Why might interpretations of the Iraq War differ between 2003 and 2023?

What additional sources would you consult to evaluate the long-term consequences of these interventions?

Historical concepts: Contestability, Significance Historical skills: Historical interpretation, Analysis and use of sources

Economic shock and shifting global power The Global Financial Crisis

The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008–09 was the most significant economic shock of this period. It began with a downturn in the US housing market, where high-risk mortgage lending and complex financial products had created a fragile financial system. When housing prices fell and borrowers defaulted, major financial institutions faced collapse.

Because global banks and investment funds were closely interconnected, the crisis rapidly spread beyond the United States. Credit markets froze, stock markets plunged and international trade contracted. Many banks required government bailouts to avoid bankruptcy, and unemployment rose sharply across Europe and North America.

It was the deepest global recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Global Financial Crisis (GFC) the severe worldwide economic downturn of 2008–09 triggered by the collapse of major financial institutions in the United States bailout government financial assistance provided to struggling businesses or banks to prevent economic collapse

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D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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Source 3.3.5 Pedestrians walk past a stock ticker in New York on 6 October 2008 as markets fall sharply during the GFC.

For historians, the GFC illustrates how globalisation had created both opportunity and vulnerability. Financial integration meant that economic shocks could move quickly across borders.

Australia’s response

fiscal stimulus increased government spending or tax cuts designed to encourage economic growth during a downturn

World Trade Organization (WTO) an international organisation that regulates global trade rules and resolves trade disputes between member states

Australia avoided recession during the GFC, though economic growth slowed significantly. Several factors contributed to this outcome.

• The Rudd government introduced a large fiscal stimulus program, distributing payments to households, providing tax relief and prioritising infrastructure spending in sectors such as education and renewable energy.

• Australia’s banking system was more tightly regulated than some overseas systems, limiting exposure to high-risk mortgage securities.

• Strong demand for Australian resources, particularly from China, supported export earnings.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd also advocated coordinated international action through the G-20, arguing that major economies needed to work collectively to stabilise global markets. This reflected a broader shift towards multilateral economic management in times of crisis.

Historians continue to debate the relative importance of domestic stimulus, regulatory structures and external demand in explaining Australia’s resilience.

China and the European Union

The GFC occurred at a moment when global power balances were shifting. China, which had joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, experienced rapid industrial growth throughout the decade. Expanding manufacturing output and rising trade surpluses positioned China as a central driver of global demand.

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At the same time, the European Union expanded significantly.

Twelve new member states joined in 2004, followed by Romania and Bulgaria in 2007, bringing membership to 27 countries.

The EU was widely regarded at the time as a successful model of regional integration, promoting peace, economic cooperation and the free movement of people across borders.

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While many Western economies entered recession in 2008, China continued to grow at relatively high rates. The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games served to showcase China to the world.

Source 3.3.6 Fireworks during the Opening Ceremony of the Beijing Olympic Games, 8 August 2008

In retrospect, historians interpret this period as one of optimism about global economic integration, even as structural vulnerabilities were developing beneath the surface.

ANALYSIS 3.5

Interpreting economic resilience 1.

2.

3.

4.

Why did the GFC spread rapidly beyond the United States?

What factors helped Australia avoid recession?

How does China’s economic rise alter interpretations of this period?

What kinds of economic data would historians use to evaluate the effectiveness of stimulus measures?

Historical concepts: Continuity and change, Causation Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources

Digital transformation

Between 2001 and 2008, digital technology transformed how people communicated and consumed information, including the following key events.

• • • • • •

2001: Wikipedia launches 2003: MySpace launches 2004: Facebook is created 2005: YouTube launches 2006: Twitter launches 2007: Apple introduces the iPhone.

The shift to what became known as Web 2.0 marked a turning point. Instead of relying primarily on professional journalists and media companies, users could now create and distribute their own content. Online platforms encouraged interaction and rapid sharing, allowing information and misinformation alike to circulate at unprecedented speed.

Web 2.0 the phase of internet development characterised by interactive platforms, user-generated content and social media misinformation false or misleading information spread without necessarily intending to deceive

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The introduction of the iPhone in 2007 accelerated this transformation.

Smartphones combined internet access, photography, video recording and social media in a single portable device. This altered journalism, activism and political campaigning. Events such as protests, elections and crises could be documented instantly and shared globally.

For historians, digital transformation complicates the reconstruction of recent history. There is far more evidence than in earlier periods, yet it is uneven in quality and often shaped by algorithms or commercial interests. Digital sources expand the historical record, but they also complicate questions of reliability.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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Source 3.3.7 Apple CEO Steve Jobs introduces the iPhone on 9 January 2007 in San Francisco.

ANALYSIS 3.6

Interpreting technology change

1. Why might historians describe the period 2001–08 as the beginning of digital transformation?

2. How did smartphones alter political communication?

3. What limitations do company press releases have as historical sources?

4. How might historians in 2050 interpret the significance of the iPhone differently from those writing in 2008?

Historical concepts: Significance, Continuity and change Historical skills: Historical interpretation

Climate change and international cooperation

Scientific concern about climate change intensified during this period, and political efforts to respond became more structured. Climate change moved from being primarily a scientific issue to becoming a central question of international diplomacy, economic policy and domestic political debate. Some of the key milestones of this period include the following.

• 2005: The Kyoto Protocol entered into force, becoming the first legally binding agreement requiring industrialised nations to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

• 2007: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report concluded warming was driven by human activity.

• 2007: The Bali Action Plan advanced negotiations on emissions reduction.

In Australia, climate policy became a major political issue. The election of Kevin Rudd in 2007 was followed by Australia’s ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, symbolising a shift in federal policy direction. Climate change debates intersected with economic management, energy policy and international reputation.

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Source 3.3.8 Prime Minister Kevin Rudd speaks at the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, 12 December 2007

RESEARCH 3.5

Constructing a narrative of 2001–08

Using at least three different types of sources (e.g. newspaper archives, government speeches, economic data or academic articles) complete the following activities.

1. Identify what you consider to be the five most significant developments between 2001 and 2008.

2. Explain the criteria you used to determine significance.

3. Compare your list with a classmate’s. What differences emerge?

4. What does this suggest about the construction of modern history?

Historical concepts: Significance, Contestability Historical skills: Historical investigation and research, Explanation and communication

REVIEW 3.3 Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Explain why historians see the Tampa affair as a turning point in Australian asylum policy.

What types of sources help them reach this conclusion?

2. Explain how 9/11 changed international security policy. Why might historians today interpret its impact differently from people writing in 2001?

3. Describe the reasons given in 2003 to justify the invasion of Iraq and explain why later interpretations became more critical.

4. Explain why the GFC is considered a major event of this decade. What evidence would historians use to measure its impact?

5. Assess why historians debate the relative importance of different factors in explaining why Australia avoided recession during the GFC. 6. Describe how China’s economic growth during this period affected global power relationships.

7. Explain how the rise of social media and smartphones changed the types of sources available to historians.

8. Explain why constructing a clear narrative of 2001–08 requires historians to weigh different events and perspectives.

Go online to assign and download questions, view results and more!

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3.4 2009–2016: from hope to shock DRIVING QUESTION How did the optimism surrounding Obama’s election in 2009 give way to geopolitical and political shocks by 2016?

The hope of 2009: Barack Obama

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The recession of the Global Financial Crisis and the ongoing war in Iraq tarnished the presidency of George W. Bush, and by extension his Republican Party. The leading candidate to take his place was a Democrat with very different characteristics, and his election as the first African American president appeared to mark a turning point.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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The year 2009 began with an event that generated hope at the global level: the inauguration of Barack Obama as President of the United States on 20 January 2009. It was estimated that 1.8 million people attended the inauguration, 40 million watched it on television in the United States and billions followed events worldwide.

Obama received enthusiastic praise from many leaders around the world, though not from all – including Vladimir Putin, then Prime Minister of Russia.

Source 3.4.1 Campaign poster for Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama at a rally in 2008

There were several reasons that Obama’s election generated so much hope in the United States and around the world. Many people were tired of the unilateralist policies pursued during George W Bush’s two terms. After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, there had been immense sympathy for the United States and support at the United Nations for action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, which had hosted Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda. However, sympathy diminished during the prolonged “War on Terror”, the widely criticised justification for the invasion of Iraq and revelations of human rights abuses at Guantanamo Bay (Cuba) and Abu Ghraib (Iraq).

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Obama offered a return to a United States that emphasised persuasion and soft power over military intervention.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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Another reason his election resonated so strongly was his racial identity. Although the Voting Rights Act of 1965 had guaranteed full voting rights for African Americans, the election of an African American president was widely seen as a significant milestone in the nation’s political development. Obama’s victory was interpreted by many Source 3.4.2 President-elect Barack Obama with his wife Michelle Obama and their as evidence that the United daughters at his election night event, Chicago, 4 November 2008 States was continuing to confront its history of racial inequality. In his speeches, Obama referenced Abraham soft power the ability Lincoln’s idea of a “new birth of freedom”, linking his presidency to a longer narrative of a country to influence of American democracy and to the promise in the Declaration of Independence that others through attraction, culture, values and “all men are created equal”. diplomacy rather than military force

Policy under Obama

Response to the recession

Obama’s first term was dominated by domestic challenges. The United States experienced the GFC more deeply than Australia, with prolonged impacts on employment, housing and economic growth. In response, Obama introduced a large stimulus package focused on infrastructure, education, health and employment in an effort to stabilise the economy and restore confidence.

His administration also passed the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as “Obamacare”, aimed at expanding access to healthcare for millions of Americans.

These measures were controversial and deeply contested in Congress, reflecting the increasingly polarised political climate.

Arab Spring a series of uprisings and protests across the Middle East and North Africa beginning in 2010

Writing focus 3.4 Transitional phrases

Response overseas

Obama achieved some foreign policy successes, including the US operation that killed Osama bin Laden in May 2011 and the formal end of the US occupation of Iraq in 2011. He was cautious about committing large numbers of ground troops to new conflicts.

The Arab Spring began in Tunisia in December 2010 and spread across North Africa and the Middle East in 2011. At first, many observers viewed it as a democratic breakthrough. Authoritarian leaders fell in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. However, instability followed, particularly in Libya and Syria.

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In Libya, a NATO-led coalition intervened in March 2011 under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973, which authorised measures to protect civilians and enforce a no-fly zone. Muammar Qaddafi was captured and killed by rebel forces in October 2011.

Although the intervention was presented as consistent with the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine, it ended up contributing to a power vacuum and long-term instability.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine an international principle asserting that states have a duty to protect populations from mass atrocities and that the international community may intervene if they fail to do so

Source 3.4.3 Syrian refugees in a camp near the Turkish border, 5 March 2013. The Syrian civil war displaced millions of people.

In Syria, protests against President Bashar al-Assad in 2011 escalated into a prolonged civil war. The conflict resulted in significant civilian casualties and mass displacement, with millions fleeing as refugees to neighbouring countries and to Europe.

In August 2013, the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons prompted Obama to describe the attack as crossing a “red line”. By this he meant that the use of internationally banned chemical weapons would trigger serious consequences, potentially including US military intervention. Instead, a US–Russian diplomatic agreement followed in which Syria agreed to surrender and destroy declared chemical weapons stockpiles under international supervision.

Russian reset

One of Obama’s early foreign policy priorities was to “reset” relations with Russia.

Obama and Putin met in Moscow on 7 July 2009. Putin, having served two presidential terms from 2000 to 2008, was then Prime Minister while Dmitri Medvedev held the presidency. Despite Medvedev’s formal position, Putin remained a dominant political figure. The two countries negotiated the New START Treaty in 2010, committing to reductions in strategic nuclear weapons. The United States also supported Russia’s accession to the WTO in 2012.

A MATTER OF FACT

The New START Treaty, signed in 2010, was the last remaining major nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia. On 5 February 2026, the treaty expired. As of that date, there are no formal treaty limits on the number or type of strategic nuclear weapons that either country may possess.

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Vladimir Putin was born in 1952 in Leningrad (now St Petersburg). He served as an officer in the Soviet KGB before entering politics in the 1990s. In 1999, President Boris Yeltsin appointed him Prime Minister, and Putin became President of Russia in 2000. Putin presented himself as a leader who would restore stability and national strength after the economic turmoil and political fragmentation of the post-Soviet period. During his first two presidential terms (2000–08), the Russian government recentralised authority by reducing the autonomy of regional governors, strengthening presidential control over parliament and increasing state influence over major television networks.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Political competition narrowed over time. Opposition parties faced tighter registration laws, independent media outlets came under greater pressure and new legislation restricted public demonstrations and organisations receiving foreign funding. After serving as Prime Minister (2008–12), Putin returned to the presidency in 2012 following elections that were accompanied by large protests and allegations of irregularities. By the mid-2010s, constitutional and legal reforms had significantly strengthened executive authority and limited organised political opposition. In 2020, constitutional amendments reset presidential term limits, potentially allowing Putin to remain in office until 2036.

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SIGNIFICANT INDIVIDUAL

However, relations deteriorated. Putin accused the United States of encouraging protests in Russia following the 2011 parliamentary elections and ahead of his return to the presidency in May 2012, an election that was accompanied by widespread allegations of fraud. Obama and Putin also disagreed sharply over the Arab Spring and the Syrian Civil War. The reset effectively ended with Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, which many historians regard as a major turning point in post–Cold War relations.

Source 3.4.4 President Barack Obama and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin meeting in Novo-Ogaryovo, Russia, 7 July 2009. The two leaders initially sought to “reset” relations between their countries. According to US ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, Putin was in a very belligerent mood at this meeting.

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SIGNIFICANT EVENT The murder of Anna Politkovskaya, 2006

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BRICS a grouping of emerging economies originally consisting of Brazil, Russia, India and China, and later expanded to include South Africa and other members

Anna Politkovskaya was a Russian investigative journalist known for reporting on corruption and human rights abuses, particularly in Chechnya. On 7 October 2006, she was shot and killed in her apartment building in Moscow. Several men were later convicted for carrying out the murder, but questions remained about who ordered the killing. International organisations cited her death as evidence of the dangers faced by journalists in Russia. Russian authorities rejected claims Source 3.4.5 Participants in a “March Against Hatred” in St Petersburg, 29 October of state involvement. For historians, 2006, holding a portrait of journalist Anna Politkovskaya’s murder has become a Politkovskaya, who was killed in Moscow on significant case when assessing the 7 October 2006 condition of press freedom and political opposition in Russia during Putin’s presidency.

core (leader) a title used within the Chinese Communist Party to indicate a leader’s central and dominant authority Belt and Road Initiative a Chinese global infrastructure and investment strategy launched in 2013 to expand trade and political influence

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank a multilateral development bank established by China in 2015 to finance infrastructure projects in Asia

China and the rise of Xi Jinping

During this period, China continued to expand its economic influence. The BRIC grouping (Brazil, Russia, India and China), first identified in the early 2000s, formally expanded to become BRICS in 2010 with the inclusion of South Africa.

The grouping represented a substantial proportion of the global population and global economic output.

In 2012, Xi Jinping became General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party.

Alongside China’s growing economic influence, Xi moved to consolidate his political authority. Over the following years, anti-corruption campaigns removed senior party figures and strengthened central control.

In 2016, Xi was designated the “core” of the Communist Party leadership – a title previously used for Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping – signalling his dominant position within the party, the military and the state.

Source 3.4.6 US Vice President Joe Biden and Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping during a bilateral meeting at the White House, 14 February 2012

China launched the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013 and established the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in 2015. By the mid-2010s, China’s regional and global influence had grown significantly.

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Australia during this time

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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In Australia, Kevin Rudd was replaced as Prime Minister by Julia Gillard in June 2010 following an internal Labor Party leadership challenge. Gillard became Australia’s first female prime minister and governed until June 2013. Rudd later returned briefly to the prime ministership before losing the September 2013 election to Tony Abbott. The leadership change in 2010 marked the beginning of a period of political instability at the federal level, with repeated changes of prime minister between elections over the following decade.

Source 3.4.7 Prime Minister Julia Gillard proposes a toast to President Barack Obama during a parliamentary dinner at Parliament House, Canberra, 16 November 2011.

ANALYSIS 3.7

Analysing significance

In October 2012, Prime Minister Julia Gillard delivered a speech in Parliament in which she accused Opposition leader Tony Abbott of sexism and misogyny. Although the speech received mixed reactions in Australia at the time, video of it was rapidly shared online and viewed millions of times. International media outlets covered the address, and it was widely circulated on social media platforms such as YouTube and X (Twitter). Over time, it came to be regarded as a defining moment in Australian political history. Ten years later, ABC News asked current female politicians to reflect on its significance.

Source 3.4.8 ABC News video on Julia Gillard’s 2012 parliamentary speech

View Source 3.4.8.

1.

2.

3.

4.

What arguments did Gillard make in the speech?

How was the speech reported in Australian media at the time?

How did the politicians interviewed 10 years later interpret its significance?

What does this suggest about how digital media preserves and reshapes political memory?

Historical concepts: Significance, Perspectives Historical skills: Historical interpretation, Analysis and use of sources

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The rise of populism and Brexit

migration crisis a large-scale movement of people across borders that creates political, humanitarian and policy challenges

In June 2016, voters in the United Kingdom narrowly supported leaving the European Union, with 52% voting in favour. The referendum campaign reduced complex political and economic issues into simple and memorable slogans. Some of the claims made by campaigners were strongly contested, and later analyses identified examples of misleading statistics and online disinformation. Digital platforms amplified campaign messaging and enabled rapid circulation of both verified and unverified information.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

disinformation deliberately false or misleading information spread with the intention to deceive

During the mid-2010s, nationalist and populist movements gained influence in several countries. Economic insecurity following the GFC, austerity policies and increased migration contributed to political realignment. Social media platforms enabled movements to communicate directly with supporters and to bypass traditional media gatekeepers. In 2015, Europe experienced a sharp increase in asylum seekers and refugees, marking the height of what became known as the European migration crisis. The arrival of more than one million people that year intensified political debate about immigration, borders and national sovereignty.

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austerity government policies that reduce public spending in order to lower budget deficits

The result surprised many observers, including political commentators and polling organisations. For some governments and analysts outside the United Kingdom, the decision signalled growing dissatisfaction with established political institutions and the post–Cold War model of economic integration. Supporters of Brexit argued that leaving the European Union would restore democratic control and national sovereignty. Others contended that it risked economic disruption and reflected nostalgia for an earlier era of British global influence.

The United Kingdom formally triggered Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union on 29 March 2017, beginning the legal process of withdrawal. The United Kingdom left the European Union on 31 January 2020. A transition period followed and ended on 31 December 2020.

Source 3.4.9 UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage greets supporters in Westminster, London, after the referendum result was announced, on 24 June 2016.

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RESEARCH 3.6 Evaluating digital claims

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

1. Identify two widely shared claims made during the Brexit campaign (e.g. from campaign materials, speeches, news reports or social media posts).

2. For each claim, find one source that supports it and one source that challenges it. What type of source is each (primary or secondary)?

3. What evidence is used (statistics, expert testimony, anecdote, images)? How reliable is that evidence?

4. Explain how digital platforms can amplify persuasive messages even when claims are disputed.

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During the Brexit referendum campaign, political messages spread rapidly through traditional media and social media. Some claims were supported by evidence, while others were contested or misleading.

Historical concepts: Contestability, Significance Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources, Historical interpretation

Climate cooperation: the Paris Agreement

In 2015, international cooperation on climate change appeared to advance significantly. At the Paris Climate Conference, 196 countries agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Countries committed to submitting national emissions reduction plans and developed nations pledged financial support to developing countries.

In the same year, the United Nations adopted the Sustainable Development Goals, embedding climate action within a broader development framework. Renewable energy investment increased, and both China and the United States committed to emissions reductions. Many observers described 2015 as a significant moment in global climate diplomacy.

The US presidential election

Donald J. Trump’s victory in the November 2016 US presidential election came as a shock to many people both in the United States and around the world. The experienced former First Lady and Secretary of State, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, won the national popular vote, receiving 48.2% compared to Trump’s 46.1%. However, Trump, whose appeal lay in his status as a political outsider, with experience in business and reality television, secured 304 Electoral College votes to Clinton’s 227, largely through narrow victories in key states including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Sustainable Development Goals a set of 17 global goals adopted by the United Nations in 2015 to address poverty and inequality, and encourage environmental sustainability Electoral College the US system in which each state is allocated a number of electors who formally cast votes for president, meaning the national popular vote does not directly determine the outcome

The campaign was marked by controversy, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email server and allegations of Russian interference in the election. In 2017, US intelligence agencies concluded that Russia had conducted a campaign to influence public opinion through cyber operations and social media disinformation, though debates continued about the impact of these actions.

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D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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The result highlighted deep ideological divisions within the United States over immigration, globalisation, race, economic policy and national identity.

Many historians regard the 2016 election as a turning point, signalling the rise of populist politics within the United States and a new era of political polarisation that reshaped both domestic and international politics.

Source 3.4.10 Democratic supporters react as election results are announced at Hillary Clinton’s election night event in New York City, 8 November 2016.

RESEARCH 3.7

Researching the 2016 election

Using at least three different types of sources (e.g. election data, contemporary news reports, opinion pieces, academic analysis or official government investigations), respond to the following.

1. How did different media organisations explain the 2016 election result in the days immediately following the vote?

2. How do interpretations written several years after 2016 differ from reporting produced during the campaign?

Historical concepts: Causation, Contestability Historical skills: Historical investigation and research, Historical interpretation

REVIEW 3.4

Go online to assign and download questions, view results and more!

Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Explain why Barack Obama’s election in 2009 was widely interpreted as a moment of hope.

2. Analyse how historians might interpret the outcomes of US involvement in Libya or Syria differently over time.

3. Evaluate Obama’s attempt to reset relations with Russia.

4. Explain how political and legal changes in Russia provide evidence of a shift in governance during this period.

5. Explain how digital media shaped public memory of Julia Gillard’s 2012 parliamentary speech.

6. Analyse how economic insecurity and migration contributed to the rise of populist movements in the mid-2010s.

7. Explain why the 2015 Paris Agreement was seen by many as a significant moment in international cooperation.

8. Assess why the 2016 US presidential election was interpreted by many historians as a turning point.

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3.5 2017–2025: the rise of misinformation in the United States

• •

How did misinformation shape political behaviour in the United States?

What does the period 2017–25 reveal about the relationship between information and democratic institutions?

“Alternative facts” and the erosion of a shared record

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

By the late 2010s, personal mobile phones with internet connections made it possible in most parts of the world for people to be permanently connected to sources of information and opinion, and to each other. Screen-related addiction and concerns about “doom scrolling” became common. Significant increases in social media made it increasingly challenging for journalists and historians to track sources.

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DRIVING QUESTIONS

The election in 2016 of an “anti-system” candidate who distrusted mainstream media and professional experts, and frequently communicated through unfiltered social media posts, to lead the world’s most powerful nation, was expected to prove disruptive. Analysts have concluded that it did cause significant shifts in political movements within the United States, which began to emerge elsewhere. They also concluded that Donald Trump’s communication and negotiation styles affected the way many people viewed identities and information.

Donald Trump was elected with the slogan “Make America Great Again”, which was first used by conservative president Ronald Reagan in 1980. Trump declared that “the American Dream is dead” and that he would revive it by putting “America First”.

He appealed to white American voters who were concerned that policies to allow free global trade and support racial equality and immigration might be to blame for the loss of industries and working-class jobs, notably when he accused immigrants from Mexico of bringing drugs and crime and of being rapists. From the beginning, his “MAGA” movement blended grievance, nationalism and highly charged rhetoric.

For some historians, Trump’s rise cannot be understood simply as an electoral upset but rather as a reaction against social and cultural change.

Source 3.5.1 Nick Bryant on Donald Trump’s victory

[Trump’s] shock victory in 2016 was, in many respects, a backlash against Obama, and the gentler, more refined and more racially inclusive version of America he personified.

Nick Bryant. 2026. “Making sense of the chaotic present by delving into the misremembered past.” Substack, 10 February.

Donald Trump’s first term in office (2017–21) was marked by controversy from his inauguration speech through to his last day in office. In January 2017, the new president claimed that the crowd at his inauguration was larger than Barack Obama’s, though photographic evidence showed this was not the case.

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This was defended by his counsellor Kellyanne Conway, who described the administration’s claims as “alternative facts”.

The invention of the concept of “alternative facts” became emblematic of a broader shift in political communication. In previous eras, visual evidence such as photographs might have been widely accepted as factual records. In the digital age, however, even visual sources became contested. The episode raised fundamental questions about authority, evidence and the reliability of modern sources.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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Throughout his first term, media organisations created new teams of expert “fact checkers” to analyse political statements and speeches and highlight falsehoods.

President Trump made more than 30,000 false or misleading claims during his term, according to the Washington Post Fact Checker. While earlier administrations had faced accusations of dishonesty, the scale and frequency of disputed claims during this period intensified debate about truth in public life. While mainstream media and Democrat supporters wanted to hold Trump to account for his words, his allies and Republican supporters said that they took him “seriously, but not literally”, and understood that exaggeration was part of his personality.

Slogans, symbolism and political identity

Political slogans played a central role in shaping the historical narrative of this period.

“Make America Great Again” and “America First” condensed complex historical claims into emotionally powerful phrases. Such slogans implied that the United States had declined and required restoration. They also framed political opponents as responsible for that decline.

Tensions around national identity and belonging were further intensified during the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville in August 2017, where white supremacists and far-right groups marched with torches. One of them killed a woman and injured many others, by deliberately driving into the anti-racist counter-protest against the march.

President Trump’s response – which was widely criticised for saying there were “very fine people” involved in the extremist groups and that both sides were to blame – reinforced perceptions that cultural and racial divisions were deepening.

Source 3.5.2 Far-right demonstrators march with torches during the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, on 11 August 2017. The rally became a flashpoint in debates about racism, nationalism and political leadership during Trump’s first term.

In May 2020, the killing of George Floyd by a police officer in Minneapolis was captured on a bystander’s mobile phone. The footage, in which Floyd repeatedly said “I can’t breathe”, spread rapidly across digital platforms. It sparked Black Lives Matter protests against police brutality and racism, with millions participating worldwide, including in Australia.

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Trump reframed the protests as a crisis of law and order and promoted the counterslogan “Blue Lives Matter”.

Amplified fears of crime and urban unrest linked the protests to a broader culture war against what he described as the “radical left”.

Competing slogans reflected competing interpretations of American history, justice and national identity. In the digital age, such narratives circulated rapidly, often detached from detailed historical context.

Source 3.5.3 Protesters march in Adelaide on 6 June 2020 in solidarity with Black Lives Matter demonstrations in the United States and to protest Aboriginal deaths in custody. The global spread of protests illustrates how digital media connects local events to international movements.

RESEARCH 3.8

Investigating the historical use of political slogans

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culture war political conflict over national social values, identity and culture

Research a political slogan from the 1930s, 1960s or 1980s.

What historical claim did it imply?

Compare it with “Make America Great Again.”

How do slogans shape collective memory?

Historical concepts: Continuity and change, Perspectives Historical skills: Historical investigation and research

COVID-19 and the politicisation of expertise

The COVID-19 pandemic dominated 2020, the final year of President Trump’s first term. From the outset, Trump was determined not to allow the pandemic to cripple the economy or compromise people’s freedom of movement. While he declared a public health emergency in January 2020, and American federal public health officials were among the world’s leading authorities on the virus and prevention measures, the President downplayed the severity of the virus and delayed large-scale preparation and testing. Although limited travel restrictions were introduced early – particularly from China – the United States did not implement a full national border closure, and domestic travel continued widely. The federal government largely left many decisions to individual states. This created a patchwork of lockdown rules and public-health measures across the country. Some states imposed strict restrictions; others reopened quickly. Mask-wearing, business closures and vaccination policies became politically charged.

Trump publicly contradicted health experts at various points and questioned the severity of the threat. Along with some Republican politicians, he framed lockdowns and mask mandates as excessive government intrusion. Public-health messaging from the federal level often conflicted with scientific advice.

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As a result, pandemic policy became increasingly polarised, and mask use in particular became associated with political identity. Trump authorised a joint military, medical and public–private partnership called Operation Warp Speed, which successfully accelerated vaccine development and was widely recognised as a major scientific achievement. However, Trump, like many of his supporters, remained sceptical about vaccination, and vaccine uptake was uneven. Despite rapid development, vaccine hesitancy remained high in parts of the country.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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By comparison with many other wealthy democracies, the United States experienced significantly higher excess mortality. More people died from COVID-19 in America than in any other nation. In the last three months of Trump’s presidency, the number of deaths per day increased from under 1000 to over 3000. In the end, the total reached over 1.2 million. Public debate continues over the extent to which political messaging, federal structure, institutional trust and policy decisions contributed to this outcome.

The pandemic also generated an enormous volume of sources: daily government briefings, epidemiological data dashboards, televised interviews, medical journal articles, partisan commentary, social media posts and citizen journalism. For historians, the challenge is not a lack of evidence but an overabundance of contested material. Assessing reliability, intent and context is central to reconstructing this period.

ANALYSIS 3.8

Analysing sources

Access the following links to compare contrasting messages about the severity of COVID-19 and how it should be managed.

These messages were conveyed to the US public with 10 days of one another in June 2020.

• •

Video of President Trump telling a Tulsa crowd he wanted to slow down COVID-19 testing: https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11798.

Video of Dr Anthony Fauci, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, emphasising the importance of following health directives such as testing, contact tracing, distancing and mask-wearing: https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11799.

1. What claims does each source make about the seriousness of COVID-19 and the appropriate public response?

2. What type of source is each (campaign speech, expert testimony, media report)? How might this affect its reliability and purpose?

3. How might political context have shaped the tone and messaging of each speaker?

4. For an ordinary citizen in June 2020, how challenging would it have been to evaluate these competing claims? Explain your reasoning.

5. What does this suggest about the difficulties historians face when reconstructing events from rapidly produced and politically charged sources?

Historical concepts: Perspectives, Contestability Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources, Explanation and communication

The 2020 election and the “Big Lie”

Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden, who received 7 million more votes. After the result was declared, Trump refused to concede defeat and claimed that the election had been “stolen” and “rigged”. He repeated this claim across rallies, interviews and social media platforms.

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Observers familiar with twentieth-century history noted the phrase “Big Lie” had earlier appeared in Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf, where he argued that a sufficiently large and frequently repeated falsehood could eventually be believed by many people. The comparison was not a claim of equivalence but an observation about a recurring historical pattern: repetition can strengthen belief, even in the face of contradictory evidence.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Belief in the “Big Lie” became a marker of political loyalty. Republican lawmakers were often expected to affirm publicly that the election had been stolen. Acceptance of the claim functioned as a test of allegiance within parts of the party. On 6 January 2021, as Congress met to certify the Electoral College results, Trump encouraged supporters to march on the Capitol. The ensuing breach of the building saw rioters force their way inside, clash with police and temporarily halt the certification process.

(See Chapter 4 for in-depth analysis of the lead-up, events and implications of the 6 January attack.) Trump continued to repeat the “Big Lie” throughout his second campaign and into his second term.

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The claim became widely known as the “Big Lie”. During Trump’s first term, many media outlets had avoided using the word “lie”, instead describing disputed statements as “false” or “misleading”. In this instance, however, numerous outlets adopted stronger language.

Writing focus 3.5 Source analysis (perspective)

ANALYSIS 3.9

Analysing significance

In 2025, researchers Philip Moniz and William B. Swann examined why many people were willing to believe Donald Trump’s “Big Lie”. They concluded that the claim was sustained by identity fusion, a psychological process in which supporters form a deep personal bond with a political leader. Acceptance of misinformation strengthened their loyalty.

Source 3.5.4 Philip Moniz and William B. Swann on the role of the “Big Lie” in strengthening political identity and loyalty to Donald Trump

Donald Trump is the only US president to deny electoral defeat, claiming that his loss in the 2020 presidential election was due to widespread fraud. We contend that belief in this “big lie” is deeply intertwined with devotion to Trump. That is, those who were already deeply aligned with Trump were not only more inclined to accept the big lie; its acceptance fostered ever deeper alignment with the former president. This alignment fueled other pro-Trump attitudes, related to both Trump’s felony indictments and his policy goals should he be reelected in 2024. These phenomena illustrate how the fusion of personal identity to a political leader can lead to acceptance of a single piece of misinformation that itself can serve as a base upon which other misinformation may propagate and insulate the original fiction against falsification.

P. Moniz and W. B. Swann. 2025. The Power of Trump’s Big Lie: Identity Fusion, Internalizing Misinformation, and Support for Trump. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, July.

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2.

3.

4.

Identify the claim Trump made about the 2020 presidential election.

Describe the connection the authors suggest between belief in the “Big Lie” and devotion to Trump.

Identify two pro-Trump attitudes that were strengthened by acceptance of the “Big Lie”.

Outline how personal identity fusion with a political leader can shape political beliefs.

Historical concepts: Significance, Perspectives Historical skills: Historical interpretation, Analysis and use of sources

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Biden, restoration and contested interpretation

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Joe Biden was inaugurated on 20 January 2021, two weeks after the storming of the Capitol. Security was visibly heightened and the ceremony took place in a heavily fortified Washington, DC. Nick Bryant, in his 2024 book The Forever War, described the inauguration as solemn and symbolic, shaped by crisis and democratic fragility, while warning that deep political divisions remained unresolved.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Biden presented his presidency as a reset.

Domestically, his administration passed Source 3.5.5 Supporters of Donald Trump gather near the US Capitol on major legislation including pandemic 6 January 2021 as Congress met to certify the 2020 election results. stimulus measures, infrastructure investment The storming of the Capitol became a focal point for debates about and significant climate funding. These misinformation, democratic norms and historical interpretation. initiatives were framed as efforts to rebuild the middle class and strengthen federal capacity after decades of deregulation and economic inequality.

populism a political approach that claims to represent the interests of ordinary people against perceived elites, including governments

In foreign policy, Biden recommitted the United States to multilateral organisations, such as the World Health Organization and the United Nations, which Trump had criticised for being anti-American. He also oversaw the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in August 2021. Although the withdrawal fulfilled a long-standing bipartisan goal of ending America’s longest war, it was widely described as disastrous because of the rapid collapse of the Afghan government, chaotic evacuation scenes at Kabul airport and the return of Taliban rule. By contrast, Biden’s coordination of Western allies in support of Ukraine following Russia’s 2022 invasion was widely viewed as restoring American leadership within traditional alliances. Military and financial assistance to Ukraine became a central pillar of Biden’s foreign policy.

Source 3.5.6 President Joe Biden raises the hand of Vice President Kamala Harris during the Democratic National Convention at the United Center in Chicago on 19 August 2024, signalling party unity and his active support for her presidential campaign after withdrawing from the race.

Interpretations of Biden’s presidency remain contested. Historian Heather Cox Richardson, who had built a large following of subscribers for her newsletters criticising Trump during his presidency, continued to publish daily commentary about how an understanding of American history can illuminate current politics. She interprets Biden’s presidency as a historically significant attempt to restore the democratic and economic norms associated with the New Deal era, to rebuild the middle class and reassert an active federal government.

She portrays Biden as a defender of democratic institutions against authoritarian populism and argues that his presidency constituted a “restoration” project aimed at stabilising American democracy and reversing long-term political and economic trends that emerged in the late twentieth century.

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On 21 July 2024, amid concerns about his age, declining polling numbers and mounting pressure within the Democratic Party following a widely criticised debate performance, Biden withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. The decision was widely interpreted as an attempt to consolidate party unity and improve electoral prospects; however, it also prompted scrutiny of the administration’s earlier campaign strategy. The episode itself became subject to competing interpretations in partisan media.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

The 2024 election and the second Trump administration

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However, structural polarisation did not disappear. Public trust in institutions remained uneven, and misinformation about electoral integrity, public health and foreign policy continued to circulate across digital platforms. These competing narratives shaped how different groups assessed both his achievements and his failures.

The November 2024 presidential election was one of the most polarised in modern American history.

The result hinged on a small number of battleground states and was shaped by intense digital campaigning and culture-war messaging. Donald Trump won and returned to office in January 2025.

The election was frequently called “consequential”. Trump had previously refused to accept the result of the 2020 election and continued to repeat claims that it had been Source 3.5.7 Technology executives and business leaders stolen. By 2024 he was also facing 91 criminal charges attend the inauguration of Donald Trump in the Rotunda of the US Capitol on 20 January 2025. The event drew attention for across four separate cases. However, his movement the visible presence of corporate wealth and influence. built new momentum, which enabled him to make an extraordinary comeback and win 2.2 million more votes than Kamala Harris, Project 2025 a policy who therefore missed the opportunity to become the first female president. Trump document proposing promised “retribution” to his enemies, to reward those who stayed loyal to him, and expansion of presidential authority and reduction to govern the country as if he were a CEO. His return to office occurred in the context of the modern of ongoing debates about democratic norms, institutional limits and the rule of law. administrative state

Trump’s second inauguration was notable for the presence of some of the world’s wealthiest individuals as high-profile guests. Several billionaires were later appointed to advisory or executive roles. Observers noted the unusually close relationship between corporate elites and the executive branch, raising questions about economic influence and governance priorities.

The administration moved quickly to implement elements of Project 2025, a policy document developed by the conservative Heritage Foundation advocating expansion of presidential power and reduction of the modern administrative state.

Experts in law and government expressed concern about: • • • • • •

the politicisation of the Justice Department expansion of presidential immunity claims weaponisation of state power against opponents elimination of diversity programs elimination of programs dealing with climate continued attacks on election legitimacy.

modern administrative state a system of governance based on professional bureaucracies, expert regulation and institutional checks and balances presidential immunity legal protection shielding a president from certain types of prosecution or civil liability while in office

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Trump’s administration as patrimonial As part of making sense of the historical forces at play in the world today, historians often rely on the work of experts in government and political theory. Scholar Stephen Hanson has expressed concern about the impact of Trump’s actions on the administrative state. In his book The Assault on the State and in subsequent articles and interviews, Hanson argues that Trump views the state as a kind of family business and governs as if it were his personal possession. This style of rule, he notes, was common for most of history before the emergence of modern bureaucratic governance.

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Hanson describes this system as patrimonial rule. He compares aspects of Trump’s refusal to accept the 2020 election result to tactics used by contemporary patrimonial rulers, such as Vladimir Putin in Russia, arguing that such actions weaken public trust in electoral and judicial institutions. In his public commentary, Hanson has urged the defence of modern rule-based government against what he describes as the global rise of personalised “big man” politics.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

patrimonialism a form of rule in which political authority is treated as personal property and distributed to loyal supporters rather than administered through impartial institutions

rules-based international order the post-1945 system in which countries follow agreed businessman international laws, rules and institutions to manage relations, resolve disputes and promote cooperation transactional based on short-term exchanges of benefit rather than long-term institutional commitments

Early in Trump’s second term, concerns about institutional stability were intensified by the creation through executive action of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), publicly associated with businessman Elon Musk. Although Musk did not hold elected office, he visibly promoted sweeping reductions in federal spending, encouraged large-scale departures from the civil service and portrayed much of the administrative state as wasteful or illegitimate. Presented as necessary reform, the pace and scope of proposed changes raised concerns about the weakening of institutional continuity and the increasing the role of wealthy individuals in shaping economic governance.

Global consequences and the rules-based order

During the 80 years following the Second World War, the United States played a central role in sustaining a rules-based international order built on alliances, multilateral institutions and diplomatic engagement. NATO was the most significant of these alliances, and American soft power and economic leadership underpinned much of the system.

Trump’s “America First” approach during his first term was often described as disruptive nationalism. In his second term, analysts observed a more explicit shift away from multilateral commitments established after 1945. The 2025 National Security Strategy signalled a redefinition of America’s global role. Some commentators interpreted it as a move toward a more transactional and regionally focused posture rather than leadership of a global alliance system.

Source 3.5.8 Historian Robert Kagan argues that reduced US commitment to multilateral leadership risks a return to a more unstable multipolar world.

The United States has played an unusual and unprecedented role in the world since the end of World War II, with other powers willing to let the U.S. be the strongest power and place their security in American hands. This arrangement created a unique and beneficial international environment for the U.S. However, Trump’s current trajectory is leading America back to a more dangerous, multipolar world reminiscent of the pre-World War II era, where great powers frequently clashed.

Robert Kagan. 2026. “Trump is leading America’s global collapse.” The Bulwark podcast, 5 February.

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Concerns about democratic stability were not limited to foreign policy. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Index 2024 reported continued global democratic decline. Rising political polarisation, institutional distrust and dissatisfaction with representative democracy were identified as major trends. The United States remained classified as a “flawed democracy”, reflecting persistent partisan division and institutional strain.

Trumpism in historical perspective

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Historians disagree about how Trumpism should be understood. Some interpret it primarily as a populist realignment within democratic politics. Others view it as part of a broader pattern of democratic backsliding, authoritarian revival or institutional erosion in the twenty-first century.

Trumpism a political movement and style of leadership associated with Donald Trump, characterised by populist nationalism, scepticism toward established institutions and media, emphasis on strong executive authority, and the use of emotionally charged messaging to mobilise supporters

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Such assessments have shaped how historians and political theorists interpret recent American politics. In particular, they have influenced debates about “Trumpism” – a term used to describe not only Donald Trump’s leadership style, but also the broader political movement, grievances, communication strategies and institutional tensions associated with his presidency and supporters.

A significant group of contemporary historians interpret Trumpism through the lens of democratic stress, strongman politics and the weakening of liberal institutions.

These interpretations are influential in academic and public debate, though they do not represent all perspectives. Table 3.5.1 summarises this strand of interpretation.

Table 3.5.1 Influential historical interpretations of Trumpism Historian

Key works and affiliations

Core concern

Historical framework used

Timothy Snyder

On Tyranny (2017); The Road to Unfreedom (2018); public essays and lectures; Professor of History, Yale University

Trump represents a serious threat to democratic institutions through erosion of truth, attacks on elections, encouragement of political violence and normalisation of authoritarian behaviour.

Warns that Americans are not immune to authoritarianism.

Draws heavily on 20th-century European fascism, especially Nazi Germany and Eastern European authoritarianism. Emphasises lessons of the collapse of democracies in the 1930s.

Ruth Ben-Ghiat

Strongmen (2020); essays on authoritarianism; Professor of History, New York University

Trump fits the pattern of modern authoritarian “strongman” leaders who attack the press, politicise the justice system, cultivate cults of personality and undermine elections to stay in power. Warns of democratic backsliding and potential autocracy.

Compares Trump to Mussolini, Berlusconi, Putin, Erdoğan and other modern authoritarian leaders. Uses comparative authoritarian history.

Anne Applebaum

Twilight of Democracy (2020); essays on populism; historian and staff writer at The Atlantic; Senior Fellow, SNF Agora Institute, Johns Hopkins University

Trump is part of a broader global authoritarian/ populist movement undermining liberal democracy, truth and institutions. Warns about elite collaboration, disinformation and democratic decay.

Compares Trump-era politics to European interwar authoritarianism and post-Cold War illiberal regimes (especially Eastern Europe).

Jason Stanley

How Fascism Works (2018); essays and interviews; Professor of Philosophy, Yale University

Trumpism uses fascist political tactics: propaganda, scapegoating minorities, mythic nationalism, and attacks on expertise and democratic norms. Warns fascism can emerge gradually within democracy.

Cites fascist ideology and propaganda of Nazi Germany and other fascist regimes.

Heather Cox Richardson

Letters from an American (newsletter); Democracy Awakening (2023); Professor of History, Boston College

Trump represents a revival of authoritarian and anti-democratic traditions in US history, especially threats to voting rights, rule of law and the peaceful transfer of power.

Compares Trumpism to the rise of oligarchy, white supremacy and antidemocratic movements in US history (Civil War era, Gilded Age, Jim Crow).

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ANALYSIS 3.10 Comparing historical frameworks of Trumpism 1. Identify two similarities and two differences in how the historians in Table 3.5.1 interpret Trumpism.

2. Which historians frame Trumpism primarily as: a. a threat to democratic institutions? b. part of a longer historical pattern? c. a form of authoritarian or fascist politics?

Support your answer with evidence from the table.

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Study Table 3.5.1 and Source 3.5.8, then complete the activities.

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3. How do the historical frameworks used (e.g. 1930s fascism, strongman politics, US oligarchy and Eastern European authoritarianism) shape the conclusions each historian reaches?

4. Compare these interpretations with Robert Kagan’s argument in Source 3.5.8.

• How does Kagan’s concern about a “more dangerous, multipolar world” connect to the idea of democratic backsliding?

• Does Kagan focus more on domestic democratic erosion or global order?

5. Based on the evidence provided, write a short paragraph explaining why Trumpism can be considered a contested historical issue.

Historical concepts: Perspectives, Contestability Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources, Historical interpretation

Mid-term elections, November 2026

Epstein files documents relating to the investigation and prosecution of Jeffrey Epstein, including court records, investigative materials and associated correspondence that became the subject of public release and debate about transparency

documentary material written, printed or digital records that historians use as sources when investigating and reconstructing the past redacted of a document edited to remove or obscure sensitive information before it is released to the public

Historians and political scientists increasingly viewed the second Trump administration as a period in which democratic norms, and even constitutional boundaries, were contested. By 2026, many observers argued that neither Trump nor the Republican Party intended to allow the Democratic Party to return to power. This placed significant pressure on the mid-term elections scheduled for November 2026.

None of the historians or other experts on Trump could predict the outcome of the mid-term elections. However, many agreed that whatever the result, the November 2026 elections would be historically significant in some way.

The Epstein files

The Epstein files affair provides a powerful case study of the issues involved in investigating an abundance of documentary material. Jeffrey Epstein was a wealthy financial adviser who socialised with celebrities and politicians, and died while awaiting trial for sex trafficking. In response to concerns that authorities were hiding information to protect the identities of powerful people who participated in his activities, the Epstein Files Transparency Act of November 2025 mandated that the US Department of Justice (DOJ) release all files related to the investigation and Epstein’s prosecution. The DOJ did not release all files by the due date of 19 December 2025. On 30 January 2026, more than 3.5 million pages were released. However, many of these files were heavily redacted by the FBI and the DOJ. These developments placed significant political pressure on the second Trump administration throughout 2026.

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The Epstein files had global implications. Individuals in prominent positions across several countries faced investigation, resignation or arrest after being named in documentary materials. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, a member of the British royal family, was arrested on 19 February 2026 following information contained in the files. Meanwhile, in the United States, critics argued that accountability for those implicated had been uneven. By March 2026, some commentators alleged that the Trump administration was withholding additional files that could implicate powerful individuals, including the President. The full impact of the Epstein files had not yet fully unfolded.

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Source 3.5.9 The late Virginia Giuffre, pictured outside a federal court in New York in 2019. Giuffre, an Australian, became an advocate for victims of child sex trafficking and wrote a memoir about her experiences called Nobody’s Girl. Giuffre took her own life on 25 April 2025 and did not live to see the release of the Epstein files or to see any of Epstein’s co-conspirators brought to justice.

REVIEW 3.5 Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. What did Kellyanne Conway mean by the term “alternative facts”, and why did this phrase become significant?

2. How did digital media shape the spread of information during the George Floyd protests?

Give one example.

3. Explain how political slogans such as “Make America Great Again” and “Blue Lives Matter” shaped public debate.

4. Identify two ways the COVID-19 pandemic became politically polarised in the United States.

5. What was the “Big Lie”? Why did belief in it become politically significant?

6. Describe what happened on 6 January 2021 and explain why it is important for understanding misinformation and democracy.

7. Give one example of how historians interpret Trumpism differently. What historical comparisons do they use?

8. Why is it difficult for historians to reconstruct very recent events such as those between 2017 and 2025? Refer to the types of sources available.

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3.6 2017–2025: Australia in the age of misinformation DRIVING QUESTIONS How has misinformation shaped Australian political debate since 2017?

Why have democratic outcomes in Australia differed from those in the United States?

Leadership instability and political trust

Australian politics from 2017 to 2024 was marked by leadership instability, significant social change and increasing economic pressures. The period included the 2017 citizenship crisis, the national postal survey that led to the legalisation of same-sex marriage, and the 2018 leadership spill in which Malcolm Turnbull was replaced by Scott Morrison.

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leadership spill a vote within an Australian political party to replace its leader while in government or opposition

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Malcolm Turnbull had become prime minister in September 2015 after replacing Tony Abbott in a leadership spill. His government began with high public expectations.

Turnbull was seen as more moderate and conciliatory on social issues, and he led the Coalition to a narrow victory in the 2016 federal election. In 2017, his government legalised same-sex marriage following a national postal survey. He supported action on climate change and advocated a transition toward net-zero emissions. However, deep ideological divisions within the Coalition made reform difficult. In August 2018, another leadership spill removed Turnbull, continuing a pattern of instability that had begun with Kevin Rudd’s removal in 2010.

Frequent leadership changes contributed to public frustration and raised questions about political accountability. Unlike in the United States, however, Australia’s parliamentary system allows party-room spills without a national election. This structural difference shapes how instability is experienced and remembered.

In Australia, voters do not directly elect a prime minister, but rather elect local representatives to Parliament, with the winning side selecting the prime minister. Leadership can therefore change without dissolving Parliament. In the US presidential system, by contrast, a president can only be removed through impeachment, resignation or electoral defeat. These institutional differences affect both political stability and public perceptions of democratic legitimacy.

ANALYSIS 3.11

Interpreting leadership change and democratic stability

1. What is the difference between a leadership spill and a general election in Australia?

2. How might repeated leadership spills affect public trust?

3. Compare Australia’s system with how leadership change occurs in the US presidential system. What are the advantages and disadvantages of each system?

4. How might historians interpret the period of leadership instability in Australia differently from journalists reporting at the time?

Historical concepts: Continuity and change, Perspectives Historical skills: Historical interpretation, Explanation and communication

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The Morrison government and crisis politics Scott Morrison became Prime Minister in August 2018 and unexpectedly won the 2019 federal election. His leadership was soon defined by successive national crises: first by the 2019–20 bushfire emergency and then by the COVID-19 pandemic.

SIGNIFICANT EVENT Black Summer bushfires, 2019–20

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Between late 2019 and early 2020, Australia experienced one of the most severe bushfire seasons in its recorded history. More than 24 million hectares burned across multiple states.

Thousands of homes were destroyed, 33 people died directly as a result of the fires and billions of animals were estimated to have been killed or displaced.

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The Black Summer bushfires intensified debate about climate change, federal–state coordination and political leadership, and contributed to declining public confidence in the government’s crisis management.

Prime Minister Morrison was widely criticised for travelling overseas during the crisis.

His remark, “I don’t hold a hose mate”, became a focal point of public frustration over accountability and responsibility.

The COVID-19 pandemic followed shortly afterwards. The federal Coalition government introduced international border closures and major economic stimulus measures, including JobKeeper. State governments imposed lockdowns and implemented their own public-health restrictions. A National Cabinet structure coordinated federal and state responses.

Compared with the United States, Australia’s response involved relatively strong intergovernmental coordination and more consistent public-health messaging.

Lockdowns were strict and controversial, particularly in Victoria, but public compliance remained comparatively high. Australia’s COVID-19 death rate per capita was significantly lower than that of the United States.

Source 3.6.1 People queuing at the NSW vaccination centre in Homebush on 1 July 2021 in Sydney

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Misinformation also circulated in Australia. Conspiracy theories about vaccines, lockdowns and government overreach spread through social media, often influenced by narratives originating in the United States. However, compulsory voting, independent electoral administration and relatively high levels of institutional trust limited the political impact of misinformation compared with the United States.

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For historians, this comparison raises important questions. If both countries were exposed to similar global misinformation networks, why were democratic outcomes and public behaviour different?

ANALYSIS 3.12 Comparing responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

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Study Table 3.6.1, then answer the questions that follow.

Table 3.6.1 Pandemic response in Australia and in the United States Dimension

Australia

United States

Border policy

Early national border closure: Australia shut international borders in March 2020 and kept them closed for nearly two years.

Limited border controls: Travel restrictions were applied (e.g. China), but borders never fully closed and domestic travel continued widely.

Overall strategy

Elimination strategy (early phase): Aim was to suppress or eradicate community transmission.

Mitigation strategy: Goal was to slow spread and keep the economy functioning rather than eliminate the virus.

Federal structure and coordination

Federal and state leaders coordinated through National Cabinet.

State-led response: Federal government largely left decisions to individual states, creating a patchwork of rules.

Lockdowns

Strict lockdowns: Long and severe lockdowns in some states (especially Victoria).

Shorter and uneven lockdowns: Some states locked down strongly; others reopened quickly.

Quarantine system

Mandatory quarantine: Hotel quarantine for incoming travellers.

Limited quarantine enforcement: No nationwide mandatory quarantine system.

Public-health messaging

Generally consistent messaging from governments and health officials.

Mixed and politicised messaging: Federal messaging often conflicted with health experts.

Institutional trust and compliance

Relatively high trust in institutions: Broad public compliance with health rules.

Lower institutional trust: Pandemic response became politically polarised.

Masks

Masks widely accepted: Became a normal public-health measure.

Masks politicised: Mask use became linked to political identity.

Vaccination

Slower initial rollout but high overall uptake.

Rapid vaccine development (Operation Warp Speed) but lower overall uptake due to hesitancy.

Outcomes

Much lower death rate: Australia recorded significantly fewer COVID deaths per capita.

Much higher death rate: The United States experienced significantly higher excess mortality.

1. Identify three structural differences between Australia and the United States that shaped their pandemic responses.

2. Which of these differences relate to political institutions, and which relate to public trust or political culture?

3. How might historians explain why misinformation had greater political consequences in the United States than in Australia?

4. Does the table suggest that democratic systems alone determine outcomes? What other factors might have influenced each country’s response?

5. The term “pandemic amnesia” describes the tendency for societies to forget the severity of past crises once normal life resumes. How might this affect future preparedness in Australia?

Historical concepts: Causation, Continuity and change Historical skills: Historical interpretation

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AUKUS and contestability in foreign policy

The announcement replaced Australia’s existing 2016 agreement with France’s Naval Group to build conventionally powered submarines. The cancellation of the French contract triggered diplomatic tension, with France temporarily recalling its ambassador and accusing Australia of breaching trust. The episode raised questions about alliance management and strategic transparency.

Writing focus 3.6 Noun phrases (drafting)

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Despite limited consultation time with the Labor opposition, Anthony Albanese supported the agreement. After Labor’s election victory in 2022, the Albanese government reaffirmed Australia’s commitment to AUKUS, signalling bipartisan continuity in national security policy. This bipartisan support reflected a longstanding feature of Australian foreign policy: reliance on close defence cooperation with the United States as the foundation of national security and regional strategy.

AUKUS a trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, designed to deepen military cooperation and technological integration

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In September 2021, Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced the AUKUS security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. The central feature was Australia’s decision to acquire nuclear-powered submarines.

AUKUS also included expanded cooperation in cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and advanced military technologies.

Public debate focused on several issues: the strategic necessity of nuclear-powered submarines in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region; the projected cost and long delivery timeline; the implications for Australia’s sovereignty and defence self-reliance; and the degree of dependence on the United States. AUKUS was framed by some as a decisive response to China’s military expansion, and by others as a deepening of Australia’s reliance on US strategic leadership.

Source 3.6.2 Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Joe Biden announce developments in the AUKUS partnership in San Diego, California, on 13 March 2023.

The return of Donald Trump to the presidency in January 2025 intensified debate about the long-term reliability of the agreement. Trump’s emphasis on an “America First” foreign policy included an official review of whether AUKUS was in the US national interest. Some analysts warned that the long delivery timeline for nuclearpowered submarines, extending into the 2030s, meant the agreement would depend on sustained political support across multiple US administrations.

Australian leaders responded by emphasising the treaty-level nature of AUKUS and the depth of institutional cooperation between the three partners. Ongoing ministerial consultations, defence planning and public statements from both governments framed the partnership as central to regional stability and to maintaining a rules-based international order in the Indo-Pacific.

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At the same time, debate continued among former political leaders, defence analysts and commentators about costs, sovereignty and the risks of overdependence on a single alliance partner.

RESEARCH 3.9 Contestability and national security decisions

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The controversy illustrates how foreign policy decisions are constructed through competing interpretations of regional threat, alliance reliability and national autonomy. For historians, assessment is complicated by restricted access to classified defence and intelligence material. Judgements written in the mid-2020s remain provisional and may shift as further documentation becomes available.

1. Identify two arguments supporting AUKUS and two arguments opposing it.

2. What types of sources are used in each case (e.g. parliamentary speeches, defence experts, think-tank reports and media commentary)?

3. How does restricted access to classified information affect historians’ ability to assess AUKUS? 4. Does limited access to information increase political contestability? Explain.

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Historical concepts: Contestability, Perspectives Historical skills: Historical interpretation

The Albanese government and democratic resilience

On 23 May 2022, the Labor Party under Anthony Albanese won the federal election.

The rise of “Teal” independents in traditionally safe Liberal seats signalled voter dissatisfaction with major-party approaches to climate policy and political integrity.

The result demonstrated that electoral pathways for political change remained functional within Australia’s parliamentary system.

The Albanese government prioritised cost-of-living measures, climate legislation and the proposed Indigenous Voice to Parliament. The Voice referendum in 2023 became a significant national debate. Although the proposal was defeated after an intense campaign, the process unfolded within established constitutional and electoral frameworks.

Politically, the federal election on 3 May 2025 was a stunning win for the Labor Party. According to political journalist Niki Savva in her 2026 book Earthquake: The Election that Shook Australia, it was a “political earthquake no-one predicted”. Labor secured 94 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives. For the Liberal Party it was a massive loss, winning only 28 seats, with the Nationals securing 15. The scale of the defeat led to serious internal reflection within the Liberal Party, a temporary split in the traditional Liberal–National coalition and a subsequent leadership spill in February 2026.

The 2025 election ensured that Labor was well positioned to remain in government until 2028, and possibly beyond. However, while the Liberal and National parties were in disarray, support for One Nation’s populist policies on issues such as immigration appeared to be growing in some opinion polls, state elections and Senate contests.

Immigration was once again shaping up as a central issue in right-wing politics.

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At the same time, federal and state elections demonstrated that Australia’s democratic institutions remained robust. They proceeded without widespread claims of systemic fraud. Compulsory voting, preferential voting and the non-partisan Australian Electoral Commission contributed to high participation rates and public confidence in electoral integrity. Unlike in the United States after 2020, electoral defeat did not trigger sustained claims of institutional illegitimacy.

Source 3.6.3 Nick Bryant reflects on Australia’s democratic model.

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Australia has been brilliant at building its own democratic model: preferential voting, compulsory voting. I left Australia opposed to compulsory voting, but after eight years in America, I returned an absolute advocate. It’s a safeguard.

And weekend voting – what a celebration of democracy. America votes on Tuesdays, Britain on Thursdays. In America, they try to stop people from voting. Here, it’s required – and that’s a good thing.

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Journalist and historian Nick Bryant, who had lived and worked in both the United Kingdom and the United States, praised Australia’s democratic model.

Nick Bryant. 2024. Comments at the 2024 Forum – Panel Session 2, Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales.

Source 3.6.4 Nick Bryant suggests that elements of Australia’s electoral system could serve as an international example of democratic practice.

There are some really good democratic ideas in Australia that could be exported around the world. I don’t think you realise the extent to which you could become a global exemplar, not of politics, but of democracy.

Nick Bryant. 2024. Comments on Q+A. Transcript published by The Sydney Institute, 14 June.

A MATTER OF FACT

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) is an independent statutory authority responsible for conducting federal elections and referendums. It manages voter enrolment, oversees polling procedures, counts votes and ensures compliance with electoral law.

Unlike the United States, where federal election administration is largely managed at state level, Australia’s federal elections are centrally administered by a single independent body.

This institutional structure contributes to consistent procedures nationwide and helps sustain public confidence in electoral outcomes.

Australia and the global democratic climate

The Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index 2024 classified Australia as a “full democracy”, citing strong electoral integrity and institutional stability. Nevertheless, global democratic decline influences Australian politics through digital media, alliance commitments and economic interdependence. Foreign Minister Penny Wong has emphasised Australia’s commitment to a rules-based international order and support for Ukraine. At the same time, uncertainty about US foreign policy has created strategic dilemmas for Australian planners. Australia’s experience underscores a central theme of this chapter: modern history is constructed within interconnected global systems.

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ANALYSIS 3.13 Alliance dependence and democratic uncertainty

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1. How might political instability in the United States affect Australia’s foreign policy planning?

2. Why does reliance on an alliance partner raise questions about long-term strategic autonomy?

3. How does debate about AUKUS reflect broader uncertainty about the future of the US-led rules-based international order?

4. To what extent can Australia maintain democratic resilience while operating in an increasingly unstable international environment?

Historical concepts: Significance, Contestability Historical skills: Explanation and communication

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Democratic resilience in an interconnected age

Between 2017 and 2025, Australia experienced leadership instability, intense policy debates and exposure to global misinformation networks. Yet electoral processes continued to function within established constitutional frameworks. Comparison with the United States suggests that democratic outcomes are shaped not only by political rhetoric but also by institutional design, administrative capacity and levels of public trust.

For historians, this period remains open-ended. Abundant digital material, rapidly evolving interpretations and restricted access to classified documents mean that conclusions drawn in the present are necessarily provisional. As new evidence emerges, understandings of Australia’s democratic resilience in the early twenty-first century may change.

REVIEW 3.6

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Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. How did Australia’s parliamentary system shape political stability during the period of leadership change from 2010 to 2018?

2. In what ways did Australia’s institutional structures influence its response to the COVID-19 pandemic?

3. Why did misinformation during the pandemic have different political consequences in Australia and the United States?

4. Why can AUKUS be described as a contested historical development? Refer to both domestic and international reactions.

5. How do electoral systems and independent institutions contribute to democratic resilience? Use examples from this section.

6. What does the debate over the Voice referendum reveal about division and stability within Australian democracy?

7. How does Australia’s alliance with the United States complicate its position in a changing global democratic climate?

8. Why must historians treat interpretations of the period 2017–25 as provisional?

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3.7 What next in the twenty-first century?

DRIVING QUESTION Why is studying the early twenty-first century essential for understanding today’s global issues?

Studying history up to the present time

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A study of the twenty-first century up to the present gives us a sense of how extensive the changes have been over these decades, but also a realisation that the pace of change continues to accelerate. Understanding the present requires deliberate engagement with the recent past.

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Foreign affairs journalist Nick Bryant and geopolitical analyst Robert D. Kaplan have reflected on this.

Source 3.7.1 Nick Bryant argues that understanding the present requires sustained engagement with the recent past.

To stay current, I believe it is essential to keep on trying to make sense of the past. To understand the here and now, it is necessary to reach back to yesteryear. To anticipate what might happen next, it helps to rewind the clock.

Nick Bryant. 2026. “Making sense of the chaotic present by delving into the misremembered past.” Substack, 10 February.

Source 3.7.2 Robert D. Kaplan reflects on the limits of prediction and the importance of historical perspective.

Prediction is impossible. It is only through coming to terms with the past and vividly realizing the present that we can have premonitions about the future.

Robert D. Kaplan. 2025. Wasteland: A World in Permanent Crisis. Kindle edn.

Studying history up to the present helps us to appreciate issues that continue to resonate, understand the forces shaping contemporary politics, develop a broader perspective on current events, trace key themes back to earlier decades, and recognise how digital technology has transformed both historical sources and the ways we interpret them.

Global trends

A narrative of the twenty-first century allows us to step back and take a broader perspective. From this vantage point, patterns and structural shifts – often described as megatrends – become more visible.

megatrends largescale, long-term and transformative social, economic, political, environmental or technological shifts that affect the world over several decades

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Table 3.7.1 Structural shifts in global politics, institutions and public mood between 2000 and 2026 2000

2026

Global Unipolar world – US predominance

Multipolar world – more distributed global power

Liberal international (‘rules-based’) order widely supported

Liberal international order increasingly contested

Globalisation and neoliberal economic policy dominant Globalisation under strain; greater economic nationalism Social mood broadly optimistic

Social mood more anxious and crisis-focused

Democracy and human rights expanding in many regions

Democratic backsliding in some regions

Relatively high institutional trust

Declining trust in institutions in many democracies

Internet and digital technology seen as largely beneficial

Digital technology powerful but politically contentious

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Climate change viewed as a future challenge

Climate impacts increasingly immediate and visible

United States

Democratic system stable though polarised

Democratic institutions under sustained strain

Budget surpluses and strong economic growth (late 1990s to the early 2000s)

Persistent structural deficits and fiscal pressure

Strong alliances and global leadership role

More transactional and selective alliance engagement

Australia

Relative domestic political stability

Heightened political contestation and policy division

Confident middle-power identity

More cautious and security-focused middle power

The contrasts in Table 3.7.1 highlight shifts in power, political mood and institutional trust. Some developments reflect gradual evolution; others appear as rupture or reversal. Determining which is which is part of the historian’s task.

Source 3.7.3 Timothy Snyder speaking to people in Kharkiv, Ukraine on 8 September 2024. Snyder is a Professor of History at Yale University and the author of books including Bloodlands, On Tyranny and The Road to Unfreedom.

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Recognising structural change also reminds us that historical outcomes are not fixed.

Reflecting on political crisis and uncertainty in January 2026, historian Timothy Snyder wrote the following.

[The ultimate historical lesson is that] the horizon of possibilities is much broader than we see. And because it’s broader than we see, we can’t take the easy out of being depressed or despairing. … we have to keep at it for the moment when the conjuncture opens up and then we can see … the opening of something better.

Timothy Snyder. 2026. Social media posts. TikTok, 3 January.

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Snyder’s observation reinforces a central theme of this chapter: the twenty-first century is shaped by structural forces, but it is also shaped by human agency.

Understanding how institutions, political movements and global systems have evolved since 2000 helps us recognise both constraints and possibilities.

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Source 3.7.4 Snyder emphasises historical contingency and the importance of civic engagement in uncertain times in a series of video posts on social media.

ANALYSIS 3.14

Interpreting structural change

1. Select two global-level shifts from Table 3.7.1. Using evidence from this chapter, explain the key drivers behind these changes.

2. Select one shift relating to either Australia or the United States. How does it connect to political developments discussed earlier in this chapter?

3. Which changes in the table suggest continuity and which suggest rupture? Explain your reasoning.

4. How does recognising long-term structural change help historians avoid simplistic or short-term explanations?

Historical concepts: Continuity and change, Causation Historical skills: Explanation and communication, Historical interpretation

REVIEW 3.7 Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Why is studying the early twenty-first century essential for understanding contemporary global issues?

2. Identify one structural shift between 2000 and 2026 that you consider historically significant. Explain your reasoning.

3. To what extent does the evidence in this chapter suggest rupture rather than continuity in global politics since 2000?

4. How have developments in the United States influenced wider global political patterns?

5. How does the concept of megatrends help historians construct a narrative of the twenty-first century?

6. Based on the evidence in this chapter, what factors are most likely to shape the next phase of the twenty-first century? Justify your answer using historical reasoning.

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3.8 Chapter review Revise and consolidate your learning with these online tools: Download or answer questions online View suggested responses Writing focus worksheets.

Teachers can access these additional downloadable resources and Learning Management System features: • • • •

Individual student reports Assign tasks and track results Exam Generator: create custom practice exams Writing focus workbook.

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Chapter summary •

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The twenty-first century is already history in the making. Ongoing conflicts such as the Russo–Ukrainian War show that causes and consequences unfold over time, even while outcomes remain uncertain.

Constructing recent history is necessary because contemporary events shape political decisions, public debate and international relations.

Writing history close to the present is difficult due to the scale and speed of digital information, which produces abundant but uneven and contested evidence.

Historians must evaluate reliability, context, amplification and distortion, particularly in digital environments shaped by algorithms and political messaging strategies such as “flooding the zone”.

Memory, digital history products and professional expertise all contribute to reconstruction, but each requires critical evaluation to distinguish interpretation from distortion.

The end of the Cold War, symbolised by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, created widespread optimism about peace, democracy and global cooperation.

The 1990s saw the expansion of democracy, economic globalisation, UN peacekeeping and what scholars called the “unipolar moment”, with the United States as the dominant superpower.

The decade was framed by many as a “decade of human rights”, marked by the Vienna World Conference (1993) and the establishment of war crimes tribunals, though this coexisted with genocide in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia.

In Australia, economic reform, First Nations legal milestones (Mabo, the Native Title Act and Wik), gun law reform after Port Arthur and intervention in East Timor reinforced a narrative of stability and achievement.

Historians debate whether the 1990s represented a missed opportunity to consolidate a durable and cooperative global order, particularly in relation to US leadership and multilateralism.

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Australia entered 2001 in a strong economic position, but domestic politics were shaped by debates about multiculturalism, First Nations reconciliation and border protection.

The Tampa affair (August 2001) became a turning point in Australian asylum policy and a defining issue in the 2001 election campaign.

The 9/11 attacks (September 2001) reshaped global security politics, prompted the US-led “War on Terror” and influenced Australian policy through ANZUS commitments and strengthened domestic security laws.

US interventions in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003) became defining and increasingly contested global events, with later reassessment shaped by long-term instability and intelligence failures.

The late 2000s brought major structural change: the Global Financial Crisis (2008–09), China’s accelerated rise, expanding EU integration, rapid digital transformation (Web 2.0 and smartphones) and growing climate diplomacy (Kyoto Protocol commitments, IPCC 2007 report and Bali Action Plan).

Barack Obama’s election in 2009 generated global optimism, symbolising renewed emphasis on diplomacy and soft power and marking a milestone as the first African American president.

Obama’s presidency combined domestic reform (economic stimulus and the Affordable Care Act) with mixed foreign policy outcomes, including the killing of Osama bin Laden, the Arab Spring interventions and the failure to stabilise Libya and Syria.

Attempts to “reset” relations with Russia initially produced cooperation (New START), but relations deteriorated sharply after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 under Vladimir Putin.

China’s growing economic and political influence under Xi Jinping reflected a broader shift in global power distribution.

In Australia, leadership instability and digitally amplified political moments, such as Julia Gillard’s 2012 speech, reflected changing political communication.

The rise of populism culminated in the Brexit referendum and the election of Donald Trump in 2016, events widely interpreted as shocks to the post–Cold War liberal order.

Trump’s campaign and presidency relied heavily on grievance politics and identity-based messaging, with slogans such as “Make America Great Again” and “America First” compressing complex historical claims into emotionally powerful narratives.

The inauguration crowd-size dispute and the phrase “alternative facts” became emblematic of contested evidence and erosion of a shared factual record.

Polarising events such as Charlottesville (2017) and the killing of George Floyd (2020) were amplified by digital platforms, sharpening identity conflict through competing narratives such as “Black Lives Matter” and “Blue Lives Matter”.

COVID-19 intensified politicisation of expertise and public health, producing an overabundance of contested sources and deepening distrust and polarisation.

The 2020 election denial, known as the “Big Lie”, and the 6 January 2021 Capitol attack heightened concern about democratic norms and institutional strain.

Debate over Biden’s “restoration” agenda and Trump’s return to office in 2025 reflects ongoing contestation over democratic stability and the post-1945 rules-based international order.

In Australia, leadership instability between 2010 and 2018 occurred through parliamentary mechanisms rather than constitutional crisis.

During the 2019–20 bushfires and the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia’s coordinated federal–state response contrasted with the more fragmented US response.

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Although exposed to similar global misinformation networks, Australia experienced fewer sustained challenges to electoral legitimacy.

Institutional features such as compulsory voting, independent electoral administration and comparatively high levels of public trust contributed to democratic resilience.

AUKUS and the 2023 Voice referendum demonstrate how major national decisions can be highly contested while remaining within constitutional and institutional frameworks.

The post-1945 rules-based international order has come under increasing strain, with a shift toward a more transactional and interest-driven approach to alliances and diplomacy, particularly in US foreign policy.

Across the period since 2000, structural shifts – including movement from a largely unipolar to a more multipolar world, declining institutional trust and the politicisation of digital technology – reshaped global politics and public mood.

While powerful structural forces shape events, the future remains open: human agency, civic engagement and institutional design continue to influence how democratic systems respond to crisis and uncertainty.

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How to answer an exam question Example question (4 marks)

Describe two key innovations in digital technology in the period up to 2008.

The key verb in this question is describe, which means you need to provide the characteristics and features of the innovation.

Note that the question specifies digital technology up to 2008, so your answer may include innovations developed before that date.

Marking criteria Criteria •

Marks 4

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Describes at least two innovations from Web 2.0, Google, Wikipedia, Facebook, YouTube or Twitter before 2008 Communicates logically using historical terms and concepts

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Provides information on at least two innovations before 2008 Communicates using some appropriate historical terms and concepts

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Sample response

Source 3.8.1 Video on answering the exam question

Web 2.0 was an important innovation because it introduced interactive websites where users could upload content, comment and collaborate online. This led to the growth of social media, blogs and video sharing. One major example is YouTube, launched in 2005, which made it easy for anyone to upload and watch videos for free. By 2008, people were using it to watch music videos, tutorials and entertainment, and it helped create online celebrities.

Another key innovation was Facebook, which allowed people to connect with friends, share photos and post updates about their lives. Twitter, launched in 2006, also changed communication by introducing short messages called tweets. These enabled users to share news and opinions instantly. By 2008, Twitter was already being used to spread information quickly around the world. Overall, these innovations show how Web 2.0 made the internet more social, interactive and focused on user-generated content.

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Exam-style short-answer questions As NESA reminds us, your answer will be assessed on how well you: • • •

demonstrate historical knowledge and understanding relevant to the question communicate ideas and information logically use historical terms and concepts appropriately.

Question 1 (4 marks) What is AUKUS and which three countries are members of the partnership?

Question 2 (4 marks)

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What major defence capability was Australia planning to acquire under the AUKUS agreement?

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Marking rubrics are available in the Interactive Textbook.

Question 3 (7 marks)

Explain why the AUKUS agreement can be considered a contested historical issue. In your response, compare the perspectives presented in Sources A–C and discuss how debate among experts and political leaders shapes historical interpretation.

Question 4 (10 marks)

Assess the role of President Donald Trump since his election in 2024 in shaping the continuation of the AUKUS agreement on nuclear-powered submarines. In your response, consider Australian diplomacy with the United States, US actions on the international stage and policy statements issued by the Trump White House. Integrate evidence from Sources A–D to support your analysis.

Exam-style extended-response question As NESA reminds us, your answer will be assessed on how well you: • • • •

demonstrate historical knowledge and understanding relevant to the question use relevant evidence and interpretation to support your response communicate ideas and information using historical terms and concepts appropriately present a sustained, logical and cohesive response.

Marking rubrics are available in the Interactive Textbook.

Question 5 (25 marks)

a. Evaluate how AUKUS reflects Australia’s alliance with the United States and its broader foreign policy priorities from the mid-2020s to the present. In your answer, consider the rules-based international order, regional security and concerns about the reliability of the US alliance.

OR

b. Assess the extent to which AUKUS represents both continuity and change in Australia’s defence and foreign policy in the 2020s. In your answer, refer to bipartisan political support, debate and contestability surrounding the agreement, and differing perspectives on the risks and benefits of deepening military cooperation with the United States.

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Source booklet Source A The need plainly is to strengthen partnerships, alliances, relations with countries other than the United States, because the US is pulling out of the rules-based order that it created after the Second World War.

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It is very important for the Prime Minister of Australia to have a good personal relationship with Donald Trump … by standing up to his bullying, I won his respect and we had a very constructive, albeit transactional relationship … In my time … the only decision maker in the White House was Trump in reality … [In Trump Mark II] … they’ve got an agenda. The team is tight … selected with the overwhelming criterion being loyalty to Trump … But still, the only key decision maker is Donald Trump.

Australia is regarded as a very good ally. But big countries, big powers, particularly the United States and particularly under Trump, [act in their own] self-interest …

“America First”. And we have, because of the AUKUS deal in particular, we have surrendered Australian sovereignty and autonomy right at the time when America is perhaps less … reliable than it used to be. So I think the United States under Trump will do whatever Donald Trump thinks is in its best interest at the time. Full stop.

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[On AUKUS Pillar 1] … the fact that these have been ignored and you’ve got people in Canberra pretending that these issues don’t exist is a scandal … The first is that … the provision of Virginia class submarines … The US. Navy believes they have about 20 fewer than what they think they need … They are producing … an average of 1.1 Virginia submarines per annum. They need to be producing 2 per annum … They need to be producing 2.33 a year to have any hope of being able to provide Australia with any submarines.

Now, the US legislation on AUKUS quite explicitly says that the submarines cannot be transferred to Australia or sold to Australia unless the President certifies … that the sale will not degrade the underwater capabilities of the United States … given that they’re short of these boats now … clearly, a President could not certify in that manner today. That’s obvious. Will he be able to certify in that manner in 2031? It’s not very far away.

So this is why I’ve said this AUKUS deal is a very, very bad deal, very unfair deal for Australia, because it’s a very high likelihood we will end up with no submarines from the Americans at all.

Australia’s decision to go with naval nuclear propulsion is obviously hugely expensive … then it is going to have to increase its defence expenditure and markedly. And this is just arithmetic … when you say to senior people there … what is your plan if the Virginia submarines do not arrive? They look you straight back in the eye and say they will arrive … It’s a risk very likely to be realized, but they have no plan to mitigate it or deal with it at all. And that is reckless.

Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. 2025. Interview with Michelle Grattan on The Conversation podcast, July 17.

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Richard Marles has downplayed concerns the United States will review the AUKUS agreement, insisting it is a “natural” step and will not threaten the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. The Pentagon review of the security pact will assess its alignment with Donald Trump’s “America-first” agenda and will be led by senior official Elbridge Colby, regarded as an AUKUS sceptic. It follows US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s public call for Australia to boost defence spending by tens of billions of dollars in the near term, which was brushed off by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

A defence official said the purpose of the review was to ensure “allies step up fully to do their part for collective defence.”

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Mr Marles said he remained “very confident” AUKUS would be delivered and suggested an American review was no different to Australia’s defence strategic review, which took AUKUS as a given, and a recent UK review. “It’s something that it’s perfectly natural for an incoming administration to do … It’s exactly what we did,” he told ABC Melbourne. “There is a plan here. We are sticking to it, and we’re going to deliver it.” … Mr Marles said Australia had been briefed in advance about the review, and a spokesperson said the government remained confident of the Trump administration’s “clear and consistent” support for AUKUS. “I’m very confident that this is going to happen. There’s a treaty-level agreement between our three countries [and] it’s an agreement that we have been pursuing at a pace,” he said.

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Source B

Extract from Tom Crowley and Stephen Dziedzic. 2025. “Richard Marles Downplays Trump Administration’s Review of AUKUS.” ABC News, 12 June.

Source C

Trusting Donald Trump, a man who has betrayed allies, who coerces allies, and who overtly talks about an “America First” strategy that will happily discard alliances, will bully other countries, will renege on deals. I think relying on “full steam ahead” in 2025 from Donald Trump for a deal that’s going to come through in 2032 is incredibly naive, is wishful thinking of the highest order. And it’s a really dangerous thing to do because these are seriously consequential decisions – consequential for a number of reasons, not least the cost, which is something I wanted to ask you about.

Extract from Emma Shortis. 2026. Interview with Ben Doherty in “Democracy ‘dies in darkness’ and Trump is trying to turn out the lights.” After America, Australia Institute, 10 February. YouTube video.

Source D

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (right) stands with Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio during the 35th Australia–United States Ministerial Consultations in Washington, DC, 8 December 2025, shortly after the release of the new US National Security Strategy.

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Contestability and commemoration: the January 6 United States Capitol attack

CHAPTER

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FOCUS

By using a range of historical sources, you will investigate the origins, key events and lasting significance of the January 6 United States Capitol attack, 2021.

KEY ISSUES

You will explore: •

The contestability of the past, including: – how historians test hypotheses about the past through the corroboration of sources, including investigative journalism, speech excerpts, photographs and social media posts – problems associated with evaluating sources, including issues of authenticity and reliability in particular historical inquiries – the importance of understanding historical context when interpreting sources – the role of sources and evidence in evaluating competing theories about the past

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The commemoration of the past, including: – the nature and role of public and official histories – different ways history is represented and remembered – the need for critical analysis of representations of the past and the historical methods that can be used for this purpose – the various ways the past is commemorated, including the influence of political actors

Enhance your learning with these integrated online resources: Digital downloads

Videos

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Teachers:

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Suggested responses Download or answer questions online Writing focus worksheets

Writing focus workbook Exam Generator Planning documents

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TIMELINE Pre-January 6 Donald Trump is born in New York City to a wealthy real estate family

1959

Trump is enrolled by his parents in the New York Military Academy

1968

Trump joins his father Fred Trump’s real estate business after graduating from the University of Pennsylvania

1971

Trump becomes president of the Trump Organisation

1980s–1990s

Trump expands into hotels, casinos, sports and airline ventures, with mixed financial outcomes, including multiple business bankruptcies

1999–2000

Trump briefly seeks the presidential nomination of the Reform Party before withdrawing

2004–14

Trump gains national and international visibility as host of the television program The Apprentice

2012

Trump promotes the “birther” conspiracy about President Barack Obama’s birthplace

2016

Trump wins the Republican Party presidential nomination and is elected president, defeating Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton

2017–21

Trump serves his first presidential term, marked by significant political controversy and two impeachment proceedings (2019 and 2021)

Nov–Dec 2020

Trump loses the presidential election to Joe Biden and publicly alleges widespread electoral fraud

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January 6 attack 6 January 2021

As Congress meets to certify the 2020 election results, a crowd of Trump supporters enters the US Capitol Building. The certification process is temporarily disrupted.

Post-January 6 13 Jan 2021

The House of Representatives impeaches Trump for a second time, charging him with incitement of insurrection

2021–24

Trump faces multiple criminal investigations. In 2024, he is convicted in New York on 34 felony counts related to falsified business records. Additional charges are dropped after his re-election.

2024

Trump wins the presidential election, defeating Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Following his victory, his administration fires investigators and government lawyers who worked on prosecutions of Trump and January 6 protesters.

2021–25

Approximately 1300 January 6 protesters are found guilty of crimes; 1030 of them plead guilty.

20 Jan 2025

Trump is inaugurated as president for a second term

Jan 2025

Trump issues pardons to many individuals convicted in relation to the events of 6 January 2021

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4.1 Introduction: an exploration of American exceptionalism DRIVING QUESTION How might American exceptionalism have increased the likelihood of democratic backsliding in the United States?

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In this chapter, you will explore the events, historical context and debates related to the “January 6” attack on the United States Capitol Building in 2021 in Washington, DC. Before you begin, here are some significant facts that may inform your study.

The 2020 election

Electoral College the US system in which each state is allocated a number of electors who formally cast votes for president, meaning the national popular vote does not directly determine the outcome

The 2020 US presidential election was conducted in November of that year. Around 100 million of the 158 million votes were cast before the election day, due to COVID-19 social distancing rules. The official count was 81.2 million votes (51.3%) for the Democratic Party candidate, Joseph R. Biden Jr, and 74.2 million votes (46.8%) for the Republican Party incumbent, Donald J. Trump.

The American system converts the popular vote into an Electoral College, in which the winner of the majority of votes in each state takes all of that state’s electoral college electors (with some exceptions). This gave Biden a majority in the Electoral College of 306 electors to 232.

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Source 4.1.1 The results of the 2020 presidential election, by Electoral College electors

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In addition to legal challenges, people who worked on Trump’s campaign began a “Stop the Steal” movement. They used social media to circulate the allegations made in the lawsuits. Podcasters and members of activist groups re-shared the claims.

They said there was a conspiracy against Trump, and began to discuss the idea of developing an “armed” movement to go to Washington, DC and stop Biden from becoming president.

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Trump’s team challenged the results. They demanded recounts of ballots in many states, and lodged over 60 legal challenges in state courts and the US Supreme Court.

Their allegations included that the results were affected by voter fraud, improper handling of ballot papers or rigged vote-counting machines, and that mail-in votes should be discarded. In over 45 cases, judges dismissed or denied the appeals for lack of evidence, while other lawsuits were withdrawn. While there were minor procedural rulings in Trump’s favour, none changed the result of the vote.

January 6

Wednesday 6 January 2021 was the day Congress was scheduled to meet to certify the Electoral College results. This was the final stage of the election.

Trump’s team organised a “Save America” rally on the grassy “Ellipse” in front of the White House, the executive residence, which is around three kilometres from the Capitol Building, where Congress was about to convene. According to Congressional investigations, 53,000 people attended the rally. Around half of them were screened by the US Secret Service, whose agents confiscated 586 weapons found on their persons. Trump was the last speaker, and he spoke for over an hour. Initially, he said he would walk with the crowd to the Capitol Building. He called the election “rigged” and said they would “fight like hell”.

Shortly before 1 p.m., some of the rally participants moved to the Capitol Building.

Inside, 535 Congresspeople – Senators and members of the House of Representatives – were assembling to certify the election result. Meanwhile, some of the US Capitol Police officers assigned to protect them were sent to investigate pipe bombs that had been found several blocks away, outside the headquarters of both the Republican and Democratic Parties. Two groups of police were diverted to secure the sites and evacuate nearby office buildings. This left Capitol security under-staffed, and they requested support from the National Guard.

When protesters, including members of the Proud Boys militia, reached the Capitol Building, they overpowered the remaining Capitol Police and broke through lines of temporary Source 4.1.2 The pro-Trump crowd arrives at the Capitol Building in the afternoon of 6 January 2021. wire fences.

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By 2 p.m., a large number of rally attendees (2000 to 2500) had reached the Capitol.

They were warned over loudspeakers to disperse or face riot-control measures. They continued forward and climbed the stairs and railings, in some cases by attacking police with fists, blunt weapons, chemical sprays and tasers. When they broke a window with a stolen police riot shield, it was the first breach of the Capitol Building’s security since British forces set fire to it in 1814.

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Rioters entered the building and security services began to evacuate Vice President Mike Pence and other lawmakers. The process to certify the election result was paused. Many legislators were told to shelter in place and put on gas masks, while rioters smashed windows and assaulted security guards in the adjacent corridors. In the process, up to 170 police members were injured and five people died from injuries suffered during the event.

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Shortly after 4 p.m., President Trump posted a video from the White House in which he repeated his claim that the election was “stolen” and told the rioters, “We love you” and that they should now go home. Within an hour, police had cleared the building, and by 5:40 p.m. reinforcements from the National Guard arrived.

At around 8 p.m., the Senate and House of Representatives resumed their work and dealt with a range of arguments about the count. It took until nearly 4 a.m. the next day for the election result to be certified, and it confirmed that Joe Biden would be the next president.

Since that day, investigators, lawyers, judges, politicians, journalists and everyday citizens have debated exactly what happened, who was responsible and what it means for democracy.

Democracy and the United States

democracy from the Greek demos (people) and kratos (power), a political system in which ordinary citizens hold ultimate political authority, usually through electing representatives

radicalisation the process by which a person or group adopts increasingly extreme political, social or religious beliefs, sometimes leading to support for violence

Democracy is a term that the Western world often associates with the United States.

Many Americans have unwavering faith in the institutions of American government.

This faith has led them to observe democratic decline in faraway countries and to conclude, in the ironic words of novelist Sinclair Lewis, “It can’t happen here”.

Events in the 2010s and 2020s have led analysts to question whether that assumption has always been justified. Some argue that the United States has, at times, been in denial, or oblivious to the slow strain placed on its long-standing democratic norms. If a political culture truly believes its system is uniquely immune to decay, it may be less prepared to recognise warning signs when they appear. Some observers have concluded that there are signs of “democratic backsliding”, which is a process in which elected leaders gradually weaken the checks and balances on leaders’ executive power; attack their critics in opposition, the judiciary and the media; and declare “crises”, during which people’s freedoms are restricted.

Perhaps the most significant wake-up call, challenging the belief in the invincibility of American democracy, was the events of January 6. To understand January 6 and its implications, we will investigate the event not in isolation, but as part of the cultural landscape in which it occurred. This includes beliefs held by many Americans about their political system and how, for some, those beliefs may have laid the groundwork for radicalisation and shaped political behaviour in a moment of crisis.

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Source 4.1.3 Trump supporters gather outside the US Capitol in Washington, DC on 6 January 2021 as Congress met to certify the 2020 presidential election results.

To understand the sense of disbelief that surrounded the attack, we may look to contemporary observers. Writing two days later, Jack L. Rozdilsky reflected on how unlikely such an event had once seemed.

Source 4.1.4 Extract from an article by York University professor Jack L. Rozdilsky

The U.S. was – with an emphasis on was – a place that held the perception that something like this couldn’t possibly happen here. Images of intruders storming the symbolic centre of U.S. government were reserved for action and disaster films, like Roland Emmerich’s White House Down. One of the mistakes made in the lead up to the insurrection attempt was that it was not practically imagined that a hoard [sic] of hooligans could be unleashed to literally climb the walls of the chambers of the U.S. Congress, and that they would get away with it!

Prior to Jan. 6, in the popular American imagination, violent mobs obstructing legal election processes only occurred in faraway places with a fragile hold on democratic institutions.

Jack L. Rozdilsky. 2021. “Thought the U.S. Capitol Attack Couldn’t Happen? Think Again: The Insurrection Threat Isn’t Over.” The Conversation, 8 January.

American exceptionalism

A crucial concept for making sense of January 6 is American exceptionalism. This is the belief that the United States is uniquely shaped by its founding ideals – such as liberty and democracy – and therefore has a special role in world affairs. These ideas were explained clearly by French political scientist Alexis de Tocqueville, especially in his book Democracy in America. While many Americans recognise that other countries are democratic, an influential strand of thought maintains that the American system is uniquely stable, historically destined to serve as a model for others, and less vulnerable to the kinds of democratic decay experienced elsewhere because of the virtues embedded in its founding institutions.

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Americans are exposed to these ideas as early as their childhoods, such as through the once-ubiquitous McGuffey Readers. Academics such as Quentin Skrabec argue that these texts encouraged children in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries to view the US system as inherently unique and even divinely favoured – a view that has not disappeared. This is reflected in later political writing, including Dick Cheney’s 2015 book Exceptional: Why the World Needs a Powerful America, which argues that spreading the American way of doing things can justify foreign military intervention.

Sources showing exceptionalist beliefs

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Many disconnected, and sometimes contradictory, arguments are made in support of American exceptionalism. Sources 4.1.5–4.1.8 and 4.1.10 show how these ideas have been expressed across different periods of US history.

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Supporters of American exceptionalism often point to the structure of the US Constitution as evidence that the system is uniquely designed to prevent tyranny.

Political scientist John W. Kingdon argues that the American system of government is fundamentally different from parliamentary systems.

tyranny a form of rule in which a leader holds unchecked power and uses it in an oppressive or unjust way, often disregarding laws, rights and democratic processes

separation of powers the division of responsibilities for making, implementing and interpreting laws among different branches of government

Source 4.1.5 Extract from political scientist John W. Kingdon’s 1998 book America the Unusual

Still, the United States is very different. The president is elected separately from the Congress, serves for a fixed term unless impeached, and has a good deal of power independent of the Congress. Because the various bodies are chosen in different electorates and by different means, it’s possible for one party to control the presidency and another to control one or both houses of Congress, a situation that is rendered impossible by definition in a strictly parliamentary system. Checks and balances really do operate in the American system.

John W. Kingdon. 1998. America the Unusual.

Kingdon’s argument emphasises constitutional design. However, there are at least 50 other countries with presidential systems that also have constitutionally defined separations of powers. Separation of powers can prevent tyranny only if checks and balances are actively upheld and protected by enforceable laws. In some cases, leaders have dissolved legislative assemblies, dismissed judges or appointed loyalists to key positions, concentrating power in the executive branch, showing that dictatorship can emerge when constitutional safeguards are ignored. Examples often cited include Alberto Fujimori in Peru and Park Chung-hee in South Korea.

Another strand of exceptionalist thought links American government to religious purpose. In a 1955 radio address, President Dwight D. Eisenhower stated the following.

Source 4.1.6 Extract from a 1955 radio address by President Dwight D. Eisenhower

Without God, there could be no American form of Government, nor an American way of life. Recognition of the Supreme Being is the first – the most basic – expression of Americanism. Thus the Founding Fathers saw it, and thus, with God’s help, it will continue to be.

Dwight D. Eisenhower. 1955. Radio speech as part of the “Back to God” campaign.

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Here, American identity is framed not only in constitutional terms but also in moral and spiritual ones. This idea has appeared repeatedly in American political culture and is described by some as “Christian nationalism”. Historian Quentin Skrabec describes how earlier educational texts reinforced similar themes.

McGuffey used biblical terms to describe leaders such as “Washington’s sword and Franklin’s staff.” The nation was characterized as the “pillar of divine glory descending from God.” Furthermore, McGuffey saw America as having a future mission to bring liberty and democracy to the world. Historian Richard Mosier described McGuffey’s concept of an American mission: “America has a glorious destiny, a mission, which has been ordained by divine Providence.”

divine providence the belief that God directs events in the world according to a divine plan or purpose

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Quentin Skrabec. 2009. William McGuffey: Mentor to American Industry, 223.

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Source 4.1.7 Extract from Quentin Skrabec’s 2009 book William McGuffey: Mentor to American Industry

At the same time, the US Constitution is a secular document. The First Amendment begins, “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion …”, establishing the principle of separation of church and state. Historians, such as Andrew Seidel in The Founding Myth, argue that this separation was intended to prevent the kinds of religious conflict historically experienced in Europe. The idea that political authority derives directly from divine approval sits uneasily with this constitutional framework.

secular relating to ideas or laws that are separate from religion

The language of national mission has continued into the modern era. In 1961, President John F. Kennedy invoked the phrase “a city upon a hill”.

Source 4.1.8 Extract from President John F. Kennedy’s 1961 address to the Massachusetts General Court

I have been guided by the standard John Winthrop set before his shipmates on the flagship Arabella three hundred and thirty-one years ago, as they, too, faced the task of building a new government on a perilous frontier. “We must always consider that we shall be as a city upon a hill – the eyes of all people are upon us.”

John F. Kennedy. 1961. Speech to the Massachusetts General Court.

While such rhetoric presents the United States as a global model, independent assessments offer a more complex picture. In 2025, the Economist Intelligence Unit ranked the United States as the 34th most robust democracy in the world, equal with Poland and below Latvia. The index categorised the United States as a “flawed democracy”, citing low trust in political institutions, the influence of powerful interest groups, economic inequality and the absence of broad social consensus on core national values. These findings suggest that simply claiming to set the global standard for freedom and democracy does not necessarily mean that this is the case in reality.

Source 4.1.9 Thousands of teachers and staff in Los Angeles, California protest, citing low wages and poor supports.

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Despite such evaluations, contemporary political leaders have continued to describe the United States in exceptionalist terms. For example, in November 2020, Mike Pompeo stated the following.

But I am equally confident that America will overcome any challenge, from Communist China to the terrorist regime in Tehran. Because that’s what free people do. We come together; we solve problems; we win, they lose; and we execute our foreign policy confident that we are that shining city on a hill.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Mike Pompeo. 2020. Speech, November.

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Source 4.1.10 Extract from a speech by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo

Source 4.1.11 Demonstrators rally against ICE’s actions in the United States and US involvement in Venezuela at a protest in Boston, January 2026.

REVIEW 4.1

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Writing focus 4.1 Question words

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Review questions

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1. Define American exceptionalism.

2. With reference to Sources 4.1.5–4.1.8 and 4.1.10, describe some key features of American exceptionalism.

3. Using Source 4.1.5, explain how American exceptionalism might shape a US citizen’s view of their political system.

4. Judge whether American exceptionalist beliefs alone are sufficient to safeguard democracy in the United States. Why or why not?

5. Assess the likelihood that all citizens of the United States are American exceptionalists.

Explain the reasoning behind your judgement.

6. Assess the usefulness and reliability of Source 4.1.4 as evidence of American reactions to the January 6 attack.

7. Using your own knowledge, analyse how American exceptionalism might be linked to the January 6 attack.

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4.2 Previous challenges to US political norms DRIVING QUESTION How might previous challenges to US political norms have increased the likelihood of January 6?

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

The events of January 6 produced confronting imagery of disruption within the US democratic processes. However, this was not the first time presidential actions tested established political norms. Central to judging whether an action is acceptable is consistency with the US Constitution. Since the Constitution was adopted in the late eighteenth century, presidents have, at times, stretched, challenged or even contravened it – that is, acted in ways that conflict with its limits or intentions.

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Source 4.2.1 The US Constitution, the foundational legal document outlining the structure of government and the rights of citizens

Challenges to constitutional norms

The examples in Table 4.2.1 illustrate moments in which presidents expanded or tested executive power. Some were later ruled unconstitutional; others were politically controversial but legally ambiguous.

Table 4.2.1 Selected examples of US presidents testing, expanding or challenging constitutional limits on executive power, 1793–2012 Challenge

Who?

What happened?

1793 Proclamation of Neutrality

George Washington

Washington declared the United States neutral in the war between France and Britain without seeking formal congressional approval. This strengthened the role of the president in determining foreign policy.

1798 Alien and Sedition Acts

John Adams

These laws restricted immigration and criminalised criticism of the federal government. Critics argued they violated the First Amendment’s protection of free speech.

1803 Louisiana Purchase

Thomas Jefferson

Jefferson negotiated the purchase of Louisiana from France without an explicit constitutional amendment. While widely celebrated, the decision raised questions about the scope of executive authority in territorial expansion.

1832 Bank War

Andrew Jackson

Jackson vetoed Congress’ decision to renew the charter of the Second Bank of the United States, arguing it favoured elite interests. His aggressive use of the veto reshaped the balance between Congress and the presidency.

1861–65 Suspension of habeas corpus

Abraham Lincoln

During the Civil War, Lincoln suspended habeas corpus in certain areas, limiting detainees’ ability to challenge imprisonment. He justified the measure as necessary for wartime security, initially without congressional approval, raising constitutional concerns until Congress later authorised the measure.

1917 Espionage Act

Woodrow Wilson

The Act criminalised opposition to US involvement in the First World War. Supporters argued it protected national security; critics claimed it infringed the First Amendment’s protection of free speech.

veto the US President’s power to reject legislation passed by Congress Congress the legislative branch of the US government, consisting of the House of Representatives and the Senate; it’s responsible for debating, passing and amending federal laws, approving the national budget and overseeing the executive branch habeas corpus a legal principle that protects individuals from unlawful detention by requiring authorities to bring a detained person before a court to justify their imprisonment First Amendment part of the US Constitution; it protects freedoms of religion, speech, press, assembly and petition

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Table 4.2.1 Continued What happened?

1937 Judicial Procedures Reform Bill

Franklin D. Roosevelt

Roosevelt proposed expanding the number of Supreme Court justices after the Court struck down elements of the New Deal. He wanted to skew the ratio in favour of those who supported his New Deal legislation. Although unsuccessful, the proposal raised concerns about judicial independence.

1952 Steel mill seizure

Harry Truman

Truman ordered the federal government to take control of steel mills during the Korean War to prevent strikes. The Supreme Court later ruled the action unconstitutional and reversed the decision. The ruling reinforced limits on presidential authority in domestic economic matters.

1964 Gulf of Tonkin Resolution

Lyndon B. Johnson

Johnson used congressional authorisation to expand US involvement following a false-flag attack in Vietnam without a formal declaration of war. This expanded presidential war-making authority through broad congressional authorisation.

1972 Watergate scandal

Richard Nixon

Nixon’s allies were caught breaking into the Democratic National Committee headquarters in the Watergate complex and installing listening devices. Nixon then attempted to use his presidential powers to avoid accountability before resigning, revealing the potential for abuse of executive authority.

1980s IranContra affair

Ronald Reagan

Senior officials in the Reagan administration secretly facilitated arms sales to Iran and diverted proceeds to the Contra rebels in Nicaragua, despite congressional restrictions. The scandal, known as the Iran–Contra affair, raised serious concerns about executive overreach and accountability.

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Who?

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

false-flag attack an operation carried out by one group but made to appear as if another committed it, often to justify retaliation or gain political or military support

Challenge

Writing focus 4.2 Noun phrases (identify)

1995 Operation Bill Clinton Deliberate Force

Clinton authorised US participation in NATO airstrikes in Bosnia and Herzegovina without a formal declaration of war. This continued the trend of expanded presidential military action.

2001 USA PATRIOT Act

George W. Bush

Passed after the 9/11 attacks, the Act expanded surveillance and detention powers. Supporters viewed it as necessary for security; critics raised constitutional and privacy concerns.

2012 DACA program

Barack Obama

After Congress rejected immigration reform legislation triggered large-scale protests, Obama directed the Department of Homeland Security to implement a policy allowing certain undocumented child migrants to remain temporarily.

Supporters described it as pragmatic; critics argued it bypassed Congress.

Historians debate whether these examples represent constitutional crises, necessary emergency measures or normal tensions within a presidential system. Some were later judged unlawful by courts; others remain politically contested. Whether January 6 should be understood as part of this historical pattern, or as something fundamentally different, is itself a matter of interpretation.

REVIEW 4.2

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Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. What does this list of challenges to constitutional norms suggest about the nature of presidential power in the United States?

2. Analyse which of these challenges were most significant. Explain your reasoning.

3. Choose one example and explain how citizens at the time may have argued for and against the president’s actions.

4. Identify whether any of these examples directly challenged the electoral system. What does this suggest about historical respect for election outcomes?

5. Based on these historical examples, predict how citizens might respond to similar executive actions in the future.

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4.3 “Trumpism” prior to Trump DRIVING QUESTION What features does Trump share with prior political trends in the United States, and how might these features have increased the likelihood of January 6?

populist appealing to “ordinary people” by claiming to defend their interests against elites or governments Trumpism a political movement and style of leadership associated with Donald Trump, characterised by populist nationalism, scepticism toward established institutions and media, emphasis on strong executive authority, and the use of emotionally charged messaging to mobilise supporters

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

To understand the events of January 6, it is important to recognise that many of the themes associated with Donald Trump and his supporters – including nativism, populist rhetoric, distrust of institutions and conspiratorial thinking – have appeared at earlier moments in US history. Examining these earlier movements helps to place “Trumpism” within a broader historical context.

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Nativism and isolationism in the interwar period

A prominent example can be found in the nativist and isolationist movements of the 1920s–1930s. During this period, Republican Presidents Calvin Coolidge and Herbert Hoover supported policies aimed at limiting US involvement overseas. The Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act, for example, raised tariffs on imported goods in an effort to protect American industries.

These leaders were associated, directly or indirectly, with the America First Committee (AFC), a political organisation that opposed US entry into the Second World War. Although neither Hoover nor Coolidge displayed the controversial outspokenness later associated with Trump, the rhetoric surrounding the AFC reflected themes of national protection and suspicion of foreign influence.

One influential figure connected with the AFC was Catholic priest and radio host Charles Coughlin. Known for fiery broadcasts and harsh criticism of financial elites and foreign influences, Coughlin reached an estimated 30 million listeners weekly – roughly a quarter of the United States adult population at the time. His use of mass media to mobilise public opinion foreshadowed the role later played by modern conservative media personalities.

nativism a political ideology favouring those born in a country over immigrants isolationism a geopolitical strategy of minimising political, economic and military interaction with other countries

Writing focus 4.3 Noun phrases (identify and develop)

Source 4.3.1 Conservative media figures from different eras: Charles Coughlin (left), a 1930s radio broadcaster, and Tucker Carlson (right), a contemporary television commentator Digital-only chapters • Cambridge University Press & Assessment © Le Cornu, et al 2026 • 978-1-009-83909-9 • (03) 8671 1400

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The Business Plot of 1933

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New Deal a series of programs introduced

by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1930s to address the effects of the Great Depression

One of the most serious alleged threats to American democracy prior to January 6 occurred during the Great Depression. In 1933, allegations emerged of a conspiracy later known as the Business Plot. The plot reportedly involved wealthy business, banking and finance figures from major Wall Street firms who opposed President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal policies. These businessmen believed the New Deal would reduce corporate profits and redistribute wealth to families devastated by the Great Depression.

They characterised the New Deal as “socialist”, and this perception helped attract individuals with strong anti-socialist views, including some military veterans.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

At the centre of the episode was retired Marine Corps Major General Smedley Butler.

In 1934, Butler testified before a House of Representatives committee that he had been approached by individuals seeking his support for a plan to organise veterans into a force capable of challenging President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s authority. According to Butler, the proposal involved establishing an alternative leadership structure backed by a large body of armed veterans, which he interpreted as an attempted military coup.

He claimed that the conspirators wanted him to lead this movement due to his thenstatus as the most decorated serviceman in US history. He refused.

At first, Butler’s allegations were dismissed by some as exaggerated or implausible.

However, a subsequent congressional investigation concluded that discussions about organising such a movement had in fact taken place, even though no coup ultimately materialised. Butler himself stated that the plan had not proceeded only because the conspirators lacked an opportune moment.

Source 4.3.2 (Left) Smedley Butler, the retired Marine Corps general who testified before Congress about the alleged Business Plot.

(Right) Gerald McGuire (on left), a bond salesman questioned during the congressional investigation.

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The Dixiecrats

The Dixiecrats used alarmist and populist language to argue that federal civil rights laws violated “states’ rights”. They promoted the controversial Confederate battle flag – a symbol used during the US Civil War by the pro-slavery Southern states. The movement focused on returning the United States to what it viewed as a former glory associated with the Confederate period.

alarmist someone who uses exaggerated warnings about threats or dangers in order to create fear or urgency

Ku Klux Klan (KKK) a white supremacist extremist organisation in the United States that has promoted racist ideology and used intimidation and violence, particularly against African Americans

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Although the Dixiecrat party itself did not endure, its rhetoric and symbolism had lasting political influence. The white supremacist Ku Klux Klan (KKK) supported the Dixiecrats, and former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke publicly endorsed Donald Trump in 2016. Commentators have also noted that Donald Trump’s father, Fred Trump, was arrested in 1927 for refusing to leave a KKK rally, although he later claimed that he was merely present rather than a member.

segregationist someone who supports racial separation policies

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Political backlash against federal reform also appeared in the post-war period. In 1948, a group of Southern Democrats broke away from the Democratic Party to form the States’ Rights Democratic Party, more commonly known as the Dixiecrats. This short-lived third party was made up largely of Southern segregationist Democrats who opposed the party’s turn towards racial integration policies.

Trump’s appeals to nostalgia for a previous era, along with his acceptance among some white nationalist groups, have led some observers to draw parallels between aspects of his political rhetoric and earlier movements such as the Dixiecrats.

white nationalist someone who believes white people should dominate political and social systems

The Tea Party

A final movement that closely resembles aspects of Trump’s later voter base was the so-called Tea Party. This group emerged within the Republican Party in the late 2000s and early 2010s. It brought together a mixture of libertarian and fiscally conservative Republican voters who favoured limited government spending, low taxes and strict constitutional interpretation. Many were united by their intense dislike of then-President Barack Obama, and they especially opposed his Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which expanded federal regulation of health insurance.

Source 4.3.3 A protester carries a Confederate battle flag inside the United States Capitol on 6 January 2021.

The Tea Partiers presented themselves as a mass protest movement of everyday people. They emphasised loyalty to the US Constitution and warned of the dangers of executive overreach. Most notably, the movement staged a large protest on the West Lawn of the US Capitol on 12 September 2009. Their rallies promoted fiscal conservatism but were also associated with conspiratorial claims and racially charged criticism of Barack Obama.

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D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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The most prominent example of Tea Party conspiracy theorising was the questioning or outright denial of Barack Obama’s US citizenship.

Known as Birtherism, this theory asserted that Obama had been born outside the United States and was therefore ineligible to serve as president. Activists demanded that he publicly provide proof of his status as a natural-born citizen. Even after Obama released his Hawaiian birth certificate, some continued to claim that the document was forged.

Although the Tea Party portrayed itself as a grassroots uprising, it Source 4.3.4 A protest sign promoting the Birther claim at a 2009 rally. A Gadsden flag also received significant financial – a Revolutionary-era symbol reading “Don’t Tread on Me” and commonly used by Tea Party supporters to signal opposition to government overreach – is visible to the left. backing from wealthy donors, including the Koch brothers.

Authors and journalists at the time described the movement as particularly prone to Birtherism the false conspiratorial thinking. claim that Barack Obama was born outside the United States and was therefore ineligible to be president

It was within this climate of intense partisan division, constitutional rhetoric and conspiracy-driven politics that Donald Trump first entered the national political debate, publicly promoting Birther claims and gaining attention beyond the world of business and entertainment.

REVIEW 4.3

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Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Explain what the Business Plot of 1933 was. Who was allegedly involved, and what does this episode suggest about tensions surrounding Roosevelt’s New Deal?

2. How might Smedley Butler’s background as a retired Marine Corps Major General have encouraged those involved with the Business Plot to choose him as its figurehead?

3. Describe the goals of the America First Committee.

4. Why did the Dixiecrats leave the Democratic Party in 1948? How did their rhetoric and symbols continue to influence US politics after the party dissolved?

5. Explain how the Tea Party movement combined constitutional rhetoric, opposition to federal policy and conspiratorial claims. Why did these features attract support in the late 2000s and early 2010s?

6. What was the Birther conspiracy theory? How did it reflect wider patterns of distrust and political division described in this section?

7. What do the recurring political themes outlined in this section suggest about the United States prior to the rise of Donald Trump?

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4.4 Who is Donald Trump?

DRIVING QUESTION •

How is Donald Trump’s early life and business career relevant to his political career?

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Formative years

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Donald J. Trump was born in Queens, New York City, into a wealthy real estate family.

His father, Fred Trump, controlled a large property empire. From an early age, Donald benefited from substantial financial support and access to elite social networks.

Journalists Susanne Craig and Russ Buettner report that each Trump child received financial gifts worth over US$200,000 per year (adjusted for inflation), placing them among the highest income earners in the country. Trump spent his childhood in a large, gated residence in Jamaica Estates, Queens.

Craig and Buettner argue that Fred Trump used government housing programs and property valuations to generate significant profit. His practices were examined during Senate investigations into housing profiteering, and he was later restricted by the Federal Housing Authority from accessing certain government programs. Although legal action was limited by the laws of the time, new regulations were later introduced to close loopholes in federal housing schemes.

This environment exposed Donald Trump to aggressive business practices and an approach to government regulation that emphasised strategic advantage. These early experiences may help explain Trump’s later comfort in operating at the boundaries of legal and political norms.

SIGNIFICANT INDIVIDUAL

Donald Trump (born 14 June 1946) is an American businessman and Republican politician who served as the 45th President of the United States (2017–2021) and was later elected as the 47th president, with inaugurations held on 20 January 2017 and 20 January 2025.

Trump studied economics at the University of Pennsylvania before joining his father’s real estate business. In the 1970s and 1980s, he expanded operations into Manhattan, developing high-profile properties and branding projects. He later cultivated a national public profile through media appearances and the television program The Apprentice (2004–15).

By 2016, Forbes estimated his net worth at approximately US$4.5 billion, making him one of the wealthiest individuals to assume the presidency. His political messaging frequently emphasised themes of strength and victory, captured in campaign statements such as, “America will start winning again. Winning like never before”.

Source 4.4.1 Donald Trump, 2025

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The New York Military Academy

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At age 13, Trump was enrolled at the New York Military Academy (NYMA), a private boarding school known for its military-style discipline and emphasis on hierarchy and competition. The academy has long been an expensive institution, with tuition fees more than three times the average cost of a private school in the United States.

Its campus includes high-end facilities, such as a gymnasium once used by the New York Knicks basketball team, a business centre and heated indoor pools.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

The school promotes leadership training and academic achievement.

Former students and commentators have described a culture that strongly rewarded competitiveness and personal victory. NYMA has also faced controversy over allegations of harsh disciplinary practices in past decades.

Source 4.4.2 Donald Trump’s final high school yearbook photograph at the New York Military Academy, 1964

Trump later highlighted his time at NYMA as evidence of discipline and leadership. The school publicly celebrated his presidential inaugurations. This period may have reinforced themes of authority, hierarchy and competition that later featured prominently in Trump’s business and political style.

ANALYSIS 4.1

Analysing causation

1. Consider the financial privilege that characterised Donald Trump’s upbringing. What effects may this have had on his early life?

2. Assess the reliability of Susanne Craig and Russ Buettner as historians studying the early life of Donald Trump. What factors should be considered when evaluating their work?

3. Compare and contrast your own schooling experience with that of the New York Military Academy (NYMA). What kinds of students are likely to attend a school such as NYMA? 4. Assess the usefulness of Source 4.4.2 for a historian studying Trump’s upbringing. How might Trump later use this image to shape public perceptions of himself?

5. Assess how Trump’s experiences with his father, and at NYMA, may have influenced him during his formative years. How might these experiences have shaped his later business and political careers?

Historical concepts: Perspectives, Causation Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources, Historical interpretation

Entry into business and early legal battles

Writing focus 4.4 Transitional phrases

Following Trump’s graduation from NYMA, he briefly attended Fordham University.

There he decided against a career in the military and discovered a love of golf.

According to peers, he avoided more physically demanding sports such as American football or tennis. Trump then transferred to the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He graduated with a major in economics, and – according to peers – average grades.

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For the following two years, the Trump Organisation allegedly practised racial discrimination against African Americans applying to become tenants in companyowned properties. The US Department of Justice investigated the company using “testers” – applicants of different racial backgrounds. Some applicants were of African descent and others of European descent. Irrespective of financial suitability, only the African American applicants were consistently denied the opportunity to rent apartments.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

In preparation for a lawsuit based on these findings, Trump first came into contact with lawyer Roy Cohn. Together, Trump and Cohn attempted to counter-sue the government, alleging that the accusations of racism had damaged Trump’s reputation. Although the case ultimately ended in a consent agreement requiring the desegregation of apartment blocks, the episode marked Trump’s early exposure to federal legal scrutiny and adversarial litigation.

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During his time at university, Trump had already begun conversations with his father regarding an entry into the real estate industry. As a result, he was given a job in his father’s company upon graduation in 1968. Within approximately three years, he was promoted by his father to president of the company.

Cohn was significant in Trump’s life not only as a legal adviser but also as a conduit for networking. Through Cohn, Trump was introduced to political adviser and lobbyist Roger Stone. Both men believed that confrontation, media visibility and bold messaging could be politically advantageous.

In Stone’s words, the strategy was to “admit nothing, deny everything, launch counterattack”. According to family members and employees, Trump adopted this approach wholeheartedly. These early experiences in business conflict, litigation and media controversy did not determine Trump’s later presidency. However, they helped shape the combative communication style and willingness to challenge institutions that would later characterise his political campaigns.

McCarthyism a political approach involving aggressive public accusations of disloyalty or subversion

SIGNIFICANT INDIVIDUAL

Roy Cohn gained notoriety during the 1950s as a prominent lawyer in numerous televised trials.

He worked under Senator Joseph McCarthy, who alleged widespread communist infiltration within the US science, defence, entertainment and education sectors. By 1954, the US Senate condemned McCarthy for abuses of power, including unfounded public accusations and disregard for due process. This period later became known as McCarthyism.

In the 1970s, Cohn represented Donald Trump during the federal lawsuit alleging racial discrimination in housing practices.

Source 4.4.3 Roy Cohn and Donald Trump speaking to the media He encouraged Trump to counter-sue the government and resist admitting wrongdoing. Although the case ended in a consent agreement, Cohn’s confrontational legal strategy left a lasting impression on Trump’s approach to conflict.

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SIGNIFICANT INDIVIDUAL

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Introduced to Trump through Roy Cohn, Stone reinforced the value of provocation and constant media engagement. He later became one of Trump’s longest-serving political advisers.

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Roger Stone began his political career as a junior staffer during the Nixon administration.

He later worked as a political consultant known for hard-edged campaigning and media-focused strategy. Stone has claimed that Nixon was “obsessed with intelligence”, and he has spoken openly about the usefulness of political spectacle.

Source 4.4.4 Roger Stone poses for photos next to a truck decoratively painted in support of Donald Trump.

Expanding the Trump brand

By the 1980s, Trump expanded his real estate business to include several apartment buildings and hotels in New York and Chicago. He also acquired the historic Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. During this time, Trump bought a franchise (the New Jersey Generals) in the USFL, a short-lived rebel gridiron football league. He finished the decade with an attempted launch into the airline business with Trump Shuttle. It was hugely unprofitable.

In the 1990s, Trump expanded into the casino business. He launched Trump Plaza, Trump Castle (later called Trump Marina), and the enormous Trump Taj Mahal, all located in Atlantic City, New Jersey. All three casinos filed for bankruptcy within 10 years due to inadequate profit margins. To finance the restructuring of these venues and their parent companies, Trump sold the Trump Shuttle airline. He also sold a mega-yacht called the Trump Princess.

Source 4.4.5 The Trump Taj Mahal casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey

Alongside these ventures, Trump cultivated a public image as a bold and decisive dealmaker. His first bestselling book, The Art of the Deal (1987), was published during this period. In the book, he was presented as a business genius. Trump has since claimed the book was a collaborative effort with co-author Tony Schwartz. Schwartz, however, has insisted that Trump played virtually no part in its writing and has repeatedly expressed regret about his involvement.

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In 1988, Trump reportedly expressed interest in being considered as a potential vice-presidential candidate alongside Republican nominee George H.W. Bush, which Bush rejected.

Networks of influence

UFC and political visibility

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Trump’s efforts to keep his Atlantic City casinos operating intersected with the rise of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC). In the early 2000s, the UFC struggled to gain mainstream media acceptance outside Nevada. Several US states had banned events or broadcasts, limiting the sport’s growth.

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As Trump expanded his brand beyond real estate, his business ventures also created unexpected political networks.

Zuffa, the UFC’s parent company, arranged to hold UFC 30 at the Trump Taj Mahal. In hindsight, the event marked a breakthrough in the UFC’s acceptance and popularity. It also strengthened Trump’s relationships with figures such as Lorenzo Fertitta and UFC President Dana White.

In later years, Trump appeared at numerous UFC events, receiving highly visible public support. Dana White endorsed him publicly, and UFC commentator Joe Rogan hosted Trump on his widely consumed podcast. What began as a business arrangement in Atlantic City evolved into a media network that exposed Trump to large audiences beyond traditional political circles.

A MATTER OF FACT

In 2001, when many venues refused to host UFC events, one of the sport’s breakthrough shows – UFC 30 – was held at the Trump Taj Mahal in Atlantic City. Years later, UFC executives and media figures would publicly support Donald Trump’s presidential campaigns, exposing him to large national audiences. What began as a business decision in a casino ballroom became part of a political network.

Source 4.4.6 (Left) UFC President Dana White speaks in support of Donald Trump at a 2024 political rally. (Right) Donald Trump greets UFC commentator and podcaster Joe Rogan at a UFC event.

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Media construction of authority

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Trump’s national profile expanded significantly through the reality television show The Apprentice (2004–14). In the program, contestants competed for a high-paying position within Trump’s real estate organisation and were eliminated using the phrase “You’re fired”.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

The show revitalised Trump’s public image following financial setbacks in earlier decades. He was portrayed as Source 4.4.7 Donald Trump on the Set of TV show The Apprentice, with son decisive, combative and unafraid of Donald Jr and daughter Ivanka conflict – traits that later became central to his political identity. The program provided sustained national visibility and reportedly earned him at least US$200 million.

Although Trump had briefly sought the Reform Party presidential nomination in 2000 before withdrawing, it was during the run of The Apprentice that he began publicly expressing renewed interest in entering politics.

Together, these media platforms and business relationships expanded Trump’s reach and reinforced a style of authority that would later shape his presidential campaigns.

Patterns that shaped a presidency

Trump’s childhood privilege, education in a disciplined and competitive institution, early encounters with federal investigations and mentorship under Roy Cohn all contributed to a pattern of operating assertively within, and sometimes at the edges of, formal rules. His later success in constructing a powerful media brand amplified these traits. The combination of wealth, spectacle, confrontation and strategic networking created a public persona that translated effectively into modern political campaigning. These elements help explain both the appeal and the controversy that defined his political career.

REVIEW 4.4

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Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Identify two aspects of Donald Trump’s upbringing that may have influenced his later approach to business or politics.

2. How did Roy Cohn’s legal strategy shape Trump’s approach to public controversy?

3. Explain how Trump’s media image differed from the financial performance of some of his business ventures.

4. Analyse how networks developed through business and media expanded Trump’s political visibility.

5. To what extent does Trump’s early life help explain his later political style? Support your answer with evidence from this section.

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4.5 Trump’s entry into politics and the 2016 election DRIVING QUESTION How did Trump’s rise in 2011–16 contribute to contestation over truth, legitimacy and elections?

Birtherism and online amplification

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Donald Trump’s most visible entry into national political debate occurred in 2011, when he publicly questioned the validity of President Barack Obama’s birth certificate. In an October 2011 interview with Fox News host Greta Van Susteren, Trump raised doubts about Obama’s citizenship despite the White House having already released documentation.

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Although Trump had previously posted critical comments about Obama on social media, this interview marked a turning point. Conservative Source 4.5.1 Screenshot of a 2012 tweet from Donald Trump questioning Barack Obama’s citizenship media outlets increasingly invited Trump to speak as a prominent critic of the Obama administration. His status as a well-known businessman and television personality gave his claims significant visibility and perceived credibility among some audiences.

Trump shared clips of these appearances on Twitter and continued to post messages supporting the Birther claim. His posts received strong engagement from Republican and Tea Party users, helping shift his public identity from television celebrity to political commentator. Media coverage – both supportive and critical – amplified this transformation. A 2016 study from Harvard’s Shorenstein Center observed that sustained negative media attention can increase a candidate’s visibility, reinforcing the journalistic adage that “bad news is good news”.

Tabloids and “catch-and-kill”

Another factor in Trump’s political rise was the tabloid magazine National Enquirer. Known for sensational headlines and limited sourcing transparency, the magazine strongly supported Trump between 2012 and 2016. It promoted him as a presidential candidate while attacking rivals in both the Democratic Party and the Republican primaries, including Senator Ted Cruz, who they accused of having extramarital affairs.

The magazine was also associated with “catch-and-kill” tactics – purchasing exclusive rights to potentially damaging stories about public figures and then refusing to publish them. David Pecker, the senior publisher of the National Enquirer, described himself as a close friend of Donald Trump.

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Trump’s 2016 election campaign

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During the lead-up to the 2016 election, Pecker was involved in catch-and-kill arrangements relating to allegations about Trump’s own extramarital relationships that were close to becoming public.

The existence of these arrangements later became known through federal investigations and court proceedings.

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By 2016, Trump had received so much media coverage that his name recognition was perhaps higher than even during Source 4.5.2 Bernie Sanders speaks at a rally with the tagline “A Future To the 1980s. Many major news outlets Believe In”. portrayed him as an outsider with little chance of winning the Republican primaries. Yet despite dismissive commentary, primary (election) a US they devoted disproportionate airtime to his campaign. This paradoxically reinforced intra-party election held his legitimacy and, for some voters, created the image of a sympathetic underdog. to allow party members to choose their party’s Trump ultimately secured the Republican nomination, winning more primary votes candidate for an upcoming than any previous Republican candidate. election

legitimacy the belief that a political system, institution or outcome is lawful or justifiable and should be accepted

rust belt an industrial region of the northeastern and midwestern United States that experienced significant factory closures and job losses from the late twentieth century onwards

Within the Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton’s most significant competition came from Senator Bernie Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist. Sanders campaigned for universal healthcare, democratic decision-making in the workplace and stricter limits on corporate influence in politics. He gained strong support among younger voters and within the Rust Belt – a working-class industrial region that had experienced severe job losses following the offshoring of heavy industry from the 1980s onwards. Clinton ultimately secured the Democratic nomination. However, tensions within the Democratic Party intensified following the publication of internal emails by WikiLeaks.

SIGNIFICANT EVENT

The “Pied Piper” strategy and WikiLeaks

Writing focus 4.5 Noun phrases (drafting)

In 2016, WikiLeaks published emails allegedly taken from the account of John Podesta, chair of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign. One email referred to a so-called “pied piper” strategy. This suggested that Democratic strategists might encourage media attention on more extreme Republican candidates during the primaries, believing they would be easier to defeat in a subsequent general election.

The leaks also appeared to show that the Democratic National Committee (DNC), which had publicly presented itself as neutral, had favoured Clinton over Sanders. DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz resigned following public backlash.

Subsequent investigations by US intelligence agencies alleged that Russian actors were responsible for hacking and releasing the emails as part of a broader effort to interfere in the 2016 election. Although investigations documented extensive influence operations, they did not establish conclusive evidence that vote totals were altered.

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SIGNIFICANT FEATURE The “Rust Belt” refers to industrial states in the northeastern and midwestern United States that experienced major manufacturing decline from the late twentieth century onwards under both political parties. States commonly included are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. The Rust Belt is electorally significant because several of its states carry substantial numbers of Electoral College votes. Narrow voting shifts in these states can determine the outcome of a presidential election. Economic decline, trade policy and industrial revival are therefore central themes in campaign messaging directed at Rust Belt voters.

WA MT

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The Rust Belt in US elections

OR

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Key:

Rust Belt states

Source 4.5.3 A map showing the Rust Belt states

During the general election campaign, Clinton emphasised Trump’s lack of political experience and controversial public statements, arguing that he represented a risk to democratic institutions. Trump, by contrast, embraced his outsider status. He claimed that the political establishment had failed the American working class, particularly in industrial regions affected by long-term economic decline.

Trump repeatedly referenced the 2008 financial crisis and argued that the Obama administration had not restored economic security for communities in the Rust Belt. He claimed that Obama had not delivered on the promises of transformative “hope” and “change” that he campaigned on in 2008. Trump promised to revive manufacturing, renegotiate trade agreements and prioritise domestic industry. This message resonated deeply with struggling voters. Post-election analysis suggested that a significant number of blue-collar voters in states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin who had previously supported Bernie Sanders shifted their support to Trump in 2016.

Although Clinton won the national popular vote, Trump secured narrow victories in several Rust Belt states carrying substantial Electoral College votes. These state-level wins were decisive in delivering him the presidency.

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White Replacement Myth a debunked far-right conspiracy theory claiming that white populations are being intentionally replaced by non-white immigrants through migration and demographic change

Source 4.5.4 Map depicting the number of Electoral College votes by state, 2010–20. The colours show the results of the 2016 Clinton/Trump election, shaded according to the winning candidate’s percentage of the vote.

Immigration and demographic anxiety

Immigration became another central issue of the 2016 presidential race. Clinton adopted comparatively moderate positions, supporting border enforcement alongside immigration reform. Trump intensified claims he had been making since roughly Key: 2012 that large-scale illegal immigration Existing wall UNITED STATES across the southern border threatened Proposed wall economic stability and public safety.

Tijuana

El Paso

Rio Grande River

MEXICO

Pacific Ocean

Mexico City

US–Mexico border 3142 km

Source 4.5.5 Map of existing and proposed US border barriers

Gulf of Mexico

Although Trump did not explicitly endorse the so-called White Replacement Myth, commentators observed that aspects of his rhetoric resonated with voters concerned about demographic change. The theory – popular in some far-right online circles and associated with writer Renaud Camus – alleged that immigration was deliberately reshaping Western societies. Arguments about cultural decline and demographic threat were amplified by online activists and, at times, echoed or debated by prominent media commentators, including Tucker Carlson.

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At the same time, Trump proved adept at shifting public attention. Controversies surrounding his business record, personal conduct and racially charged remarks generated intense media coverage. Yet through constant media engagement and reframing criticism as establishment bias, he redirected debate towards issues – such as immigration and trade – that instead energised his base.

Allegations of foreign interference

troll farm an organised operation that publishes large volumes of online content, often using fake accounts, to influence public opinion

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

After the 2016 election, US intelligence agencies – including the FBI, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and National Security Agency (NSA) – claimed that Russian actors had conducted a coordinated influence campaign during the presidential race.

This involved fake social media accounts, coordinated messaging and so-called troll farms operating from Russia. These efforts included astroturfing and amplifying divisive political content online.

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Trump frequently cited selective or disputed immigration statistics to emphasise crime and economic competition. In response, he proposed a highly visible solution: constructing a wall along the United States’ southern border. The simplicity and symbolism of this proposal reinforced his broader campaign message that he would take decisive action where established politicians had allegedly failed.

Investigations also found that Russian-linked cyber actors targeted electronic voter databases in several states. Intelligence assessments indicated attempts to probe or access election-related systems. However, authorities did not conclude that vote totals were altered or that the final outcome was directly changed by cyber interference.

astroturfing creating the false appearance of grassroots public support for a political cause or campaign

The release of hacked emails and the documented influence operations fuelled ongoing debate about the integrity of the election process. Public opinion polling in January 2017, including surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University and the Wall Street Journal, indicated that roughly half of Americans believed Russia had attempted to interfere in the election.

Source 4.5.6 Excerpt from first page of an NSA report on possible Russian interference in the 2016 election

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Source 4.5.7 Infographic from an NSA report outlining alleged Russian cyber activity during the 2016 election. Originally made public by news outlet The Intercept, this image is available online at https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11912.

REVIEW 4.5

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1. Evaluate how media coverage during 2011–16 shaped Donald Trump’s rise in national politics.

2. Judge the significance of the National Enquirer to Trump’s campaign. Consider the role of tabloid media in shaping political narratives.

3. Explain the WikiLeaks email controversy and assess its impact on the 2016 election.

4. Explain the White Replacement Myth and analyse how immigration rhetoric functioned in Trump’s campaign messaging.

5. Using Sources 4.5.6 and 4.5.7, assess the evidence for Russian interference in the 2016 election. What conclusions can, and cannot, be drawn from these sources?

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4.6 Trump’s 2017–2020 presidential term DRIVING QUESTION How did Trump’s first presidential term indicate that the 2020 election might become controversial?

Institutional tension and executive authority

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Trump was inaugurated in January 2017. The inauguration was followed by large protests worldwide involving millions of people. Many protesters cited Trump’s rhetoric and the perceived undemocratic nature of the Electoral College as reasons for their opposition. This response reflected the deeply polarised political climate at the beginning of his term.

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Throughout his presidency, a number of Trump’s policies and executive actions generated controversy over the limits of presidential authority and established institutional norms.

Table 4.6.1 Selected policies and actions during Trump’s 2017–20 presidency that generated controversy over executive authority and institutional norms Area

Policy or action

Why controversial

Immigration

Executive order restricting entry from several majority-Muslim countries (often called the “travel ban”)

Critics argued it targeted Muslim-majority nations and violated constitutional protections; several early versions were blocked by courts before the Supreme Court upheld the third iteration in Trump v. Hawaii in 2018

Border policy

Declaration of a national emergency to redirect funds towards border wall construction

Congress had not approved full funding; critics argued this expanded executive authority beyond traditional limits

LGBTQIA+ policy

Attempts to limit certain LGBTQIA+ protections, including restrictions on transgender military service

Critics argued these actions rolled back civil rights protections

Healthcare

Efforts to repeal or weaken the Affordable Care Act

Repeal attempts intensified partisan division over healthcare reform

Judiciary

Appointment of three conservative Supreme Court justices

Shifted the ideological balance of the Court for decades

Abortion law

Judicial appointments later contributed to Marked a major change in constitutional the 2022 overturning of Roe v Wade interpretation regarding abortion rights

Climate policy

Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement

executive order a directive issued by a US president that determines how existing laws are to be implemented or enforced within the executive branch; it does not create new legislation but can shape how laws operate in practice Roe v Wade a landmark 1973 Supreme Court ruling that recognised a constitutional right to abortion; it was overturned in 2022

Signalled a departure from multilateral climate commitments and international cooperation

Trump also continued to collect profits from his businesses during his presidency.

He frequently held official conferences at Trump-owned venues. Foreign diplomats seeking access to the administration sometimes stayed at these properties. Trump also regularly played golf at his own courses while travelling. Government personnel and security teams accompanying him were required to stay at Trump-owned properties, meaning public funds were spent at businesses he continued to own.

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Trump also appointed several family members to senior advisory roles, including his daughter Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner. These appointees often lacked traditional qualifications for their roles.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Source 4.6.1 Anthony Scaramucci, former White House Communications Director under Trump, who lasted 11 days in the role. After his experiences in the Trump cabinet, he publicly criticised Trump and went on to endorse Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

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Trump’s presidency was also marked by unusually high staff turnover. The Brookings Institution reported that Trump experienced more senior staff departures than any president since their tracking began in the 1980s.

Of 47 senior departures, only nine were promotions; the remainder were resignations or dismissals. Several former cabinet officials later publicly criticised Trump, and at least 11 endorsed Joe Biden in the subsequent 2020 election.

These patterns all contributed to a political climate in which trust in institutions and executive restraint became increasingly contested.

Economic nationalism and the trade war

protectionist relating to policies that protect domestic industries by telecommunications firm restricting imports tariff a tax placed on imported goods

Trump moved US trade policy in a more protectionist direction. The most significant example was his trade war with China, which involved heavy tariffs and restrictions on Chinese companies, including telecommunications firm Huawei.

China responded with reciprocal tariffs, including restrictions on American soybean imports, which affected US farmers.

Economists have generally described the trade war as failing to achieve its stated objective of reversing manufacturing decline. While tariffs were intended to protect domestic industry, economic data suggested limited long-term manufacturing growth. This emphasis on economic nationalism reinforced Trump’s appeal to industrial regions but also intensified partisan debate over economic strategy.

Source 4.6.2 Charts from The Economist estimating the economic impact of the US–China trade war, 2021 Digital-only chapters • Cambridge University Press & Assessment © Le Cornu, et al 2026 • 978-1-009-83909-9 • (03) 8671 1400

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Immigration remained central to Trump’s presidency. A key campaign promise was the construction of a physical barrier along the US–Mexico border. At the time Trump took office, roughly one-third of the approximately 3150-kilometre border already had some form of barrier. Slightly under 1050 kilometres of fencing or wall existed prior to his presidency.

By the end of his term, approximately US$15 billion had been allocated to border wall construction, compared with an estimated US$21 billion total project cost. However, only around 75 kilometres of new primary barrier was constructed during his first term. Despite this limited expansion, Trump repeatedly described the project as a major success.

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Immigration and the border wall

Source 4.6.3 Trump poses beside a newly constructed section of border wall in Arizona, 2020.

Extremism and the Charlottesville rally

In August 2017, the “Unite the Right” rally took place in Charlottesville, Virginia. The rally was organised in response to a local government decision to remove a statue of Confederate General Robert E. Lee. The removal followed national debate after the 2015 murder of nine African American worshippers at Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston, South Carolina, by white supremacist Dylann Roof.

The rally brought together white supremacists, neo-Nazis and Ku Klux Klan members. Violent clashes occurred between rally participants and counter-protesters, and 35 people were injured. One rally participant, James Alex Fields Jr, drove a car into a crowd of counter-protesters, killing Heather Heyer. Fields was later convicted of murder and sentenced to two life sentences plus 419 years in prison.

neo-Nazi a modern supporter of Nazi ideology, including racism and white supremacy

Source 4.6.4 Members of the Ku Klux Klan protest at the Charlottesville “Unite the Right” rally, 2017. Confederate battle flags and antisemitic messaging are visible.

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Trump’s response generated intense controversy. At a press conference, he stated that there were “very fine people on both sides”. Critics interpreted the remark as moral equivalence between hate groups and those protesting against them.

The episode heightened national debate about political extremism and presidential leadership.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

COVID-19 and public trust

The COVID-19 pandemic became the defining crisis of Trump’s final Source 4.6.5 Emergency services assist injured counter-protesters after a vehicle year in office. The first US case was was driven into a crowd at the Charlottesville rally, 2017. confirmed in January 2020. Trump initially asserted that the virus was under control and suggested it would disappear with warmer weather. He also publicly praised China’s early handling of the outbreak, describing its response as effective.

Health officials including Anthony Fauci and Robert Redfield warned that the virus posed serious risks. As cases rose, Trump alternated between downplaying the virus and emphasising vaccine development. By early April 2020, the United States had recorded over 10,000 deaths. By early May, more than 60,000. By September, reported deaths exceeded 200,000.

Source 4.6.6 Dr. Anthony Fauci, then-director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, is sworn in prior to testifying before a House Subcommittee hearing on the COVID-19 crisis in Washington DC, 31 July 2020.

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In April 2020, during a White House press briefing, Trump publicly speculated about possible treatments for the virus, including the use of powerful light and disinfectant inside the body. The remarks generated widespread criticism from medical professionals and public health authorities.

[Supposing] we hit the body with a tremendous – whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light … supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way … And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning.

Writing focus 4.6 Source analysis (perspective)

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Donald Trump. 2020. “April 23, 2020: Task Force Briefing on the Coronavirus Pandemic.”

Presidential Speeches, University of Virginia Miller Center, 23 April.

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Source 4.6.7 President Trump speculates about possible medical treatments for COVID-19 during a White House press briefing, 23 April 2020.

Trump also publicly endorsed the drugs chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine as potential treatments, despite limited medical evidence and warnings about possible health risks. Online networks amplified these claims, and alternative treatment groups gained visibility during this period.

At different moments, Trump stated that he had understood the seriousness of the virus early on, even as public messaging sometimes minimised its risks. Journalist Bob Woodward later reported that Trump had privately acknowledged the virus was dangerous while publicly downplaying its severity. These contradictions contributed to confusion and intensified public debate over federal leadership and transparency.

ANALYSIS 4.2

Analysing a source

In August 2020, Trump participated in an interview with Australian journalist Jonathan Swan for HBO. During the interview, Swan questioned Trump’s claims about COVID-19 infection rates, mortality comparisons and the federal response to the pandemic. Clips of the exchange were widely shared online and became part of the broader debate about presidential communication, media scrutiny and public trust during a national crisis. Video of President Trump’s August 2020 HBO interview with Jonathan Swan, as reported by BBC News, is linked here: https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/12169.

Using the above link, answer the following questions.

1. Describe how Jonathan Swan responded to President Trump’s statistical claims during the interview.

2. Explain why Swan may have challenged Trump’s figures and comparisons in this way.

3. Identify and explain one potential issue with the statistical evidence presented by Trump in the interview.

4. Explain how this interview reflects tensions between political leaders, journalists and public trust during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Historical concepts: Perspectives, Contestability Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources, Historical interpretation

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International relations and Russia

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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During his term, Trump was criticised for his reluctance to directly condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin. He met with Putin multiple times and suggested that Russia be readmitted to the G7. He also supported easing certain sanctions that had been imposed after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Combined with ongoing investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 election, these actions reinforced public debate about foreign influence and electoral Source 4.6.8 Vladimir Putin (left) and Donald Trump (right) speak at the APEC leader's integrity. As the 2020 election summit in 2017. approached, questions about trust in institutions, foreign interference and the legitimacy of election outcomes remained highly charged.

A presidency defined by polarisation

polarisation the division of society into opposing political groups with little agreement between them

Trump’s 2017–20 presidency was marked by institutional conflict, economic nationalism, controversial immigration policy, disputes over extremism and a highly polarised pandemic response. By 2020, political trust was strained across multiple domains – courts, elections, media, science and federal authority. This environment of heightened division and distrust formed the backdrop to the 2020 election, increasing the likelihood that its outcome would be contested.

REVIEW 4.6

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Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Explain how features of Trump’s 2017–20 presidency may have contributed to distrust in institutions before the 2020 election.

2. Assess the usefulness, perspective and reliability of Source 4.6.7 for a historian investigating presidential communication during the COVID-19 pandemic.

3. Explain how the Charlottesville “Unite the Right” rally might be seen as part of a broader pattern of political polarisation during Trump’s presidency.

4. Select two controversies discussed in this section. Explain how Trump supporters might interpret or defend these events differently from critics.

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4.7 The 2020 electoral trail DRIVING QUESTION •

What distinguished the 2020 election from the 2016 election?

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

One unique aspect of the 2020 election was the earliness with which Trump began campaigning for it. Presidents have typically filed for re-election later in their first term. Trump departed from recent practice by officially filing on the day of his inauguration in January 2017. He also maintained a separate campaign team rather than absorbing campaign officials into White House roles. This allowed the re-election apparatus to continue uninterrupted, publishing advertisements and collecting donations from the beginning of his term. These decisions gave Trump a significant head start over potential challengers. Trump held his first re-election rally less than a month after taking office, in Melbourne, Florida, in February 2017.

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Campaigning without pause

In September 2017, Trump’s campaign promoted the so-called “Mother of All Rallies”, projecting enormous attendance. Organisers hoped to draw up to 1 million supporters, but fewer than one thousand reportedly attended, revealing the gap between campaign rhetoric and measurable turnout.

A MATTER OF FACT

Modern American politics is characterised by extensive use of political advertising. Increased funding through donations allows candidates to gain greater exposure, which can increase popularity. Advertising can also generate further donations, creating a self-reinforcing cycle.

According to the Federal Electoral Commission, Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign received US$1.07 billion in donations and Donald Trump’s received over US$810 million. Congress election candidates raised US$4 billion.

Early warning signs: polls and mail-in voting

In mid-2019, Trump began publicly challenging unfavourable polling data. In June, a New York Times poll suggested Joe Biden was leading in a hypothetical 2020 contest.

Trump claimed the poll numbers had been falsified. Around the same time, he criticised Fox News for releasing similar polling results, suggesting “something weird” was happening.

Source 4.7.1 Trump tweet from June 2019, challenging the accuracy of national polling data and questioning the credibility of media reporting

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On 19 July 2019, Trump told Fox News that he would “have to see” whether he would accept an election loss. He further suggested that mail-in votes could be used to steal the election. This marked one of the earliest instances of Trump openly casting doubt on the legitimacy of future election results.

The Ukraine phone call and impeachment

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Mail-in voting has been used in the United States for military personnel since the nineteenth century, particularly during the Civil War, and has been widely available to civilians since the 1930s. It has historically generated little controversy. During the COVID-19 pandemic, mail-in voting was viewed by many as a safer alternative to crowded polling centres. Nevertheless, Trump repeatedly framed it as insecure.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

In July 2019, reports emerged of a phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The call concerned military aid for Ukraine and updates on the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia. At the time, Ukraine relied heavily on American military support as it faced continued Russian aggression following the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

Writing focus 4.7 Transitional phrases

European Union (EU) a political and economic union of European countries that coordinate policies on trade, law and governance

International Monetary Fund (IMF) an international organisation that promotes global financial stability and provides loans and economic advice to member countries

During the conversation, Trump suggested that Zelenskyy direct Ukrainian authorities to investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden. He also raised claims relating to the alleged interference in the 2016 election. Trump alluded to withholding military aid if Zelenskyy did not comply.

Hunter Biden had previously served on the board of the Ukrainian energy company Burisma Holdings, which had been investigated several times for financial misconduct.

During the Obama administration, Vice President Joe Biden had urged Ukrainian authorities to remove prosecutor general Viktor Shokin, threatening to withhold US loan guarantees if reforms were not implemented. By 2019, a conspiracy theory emerged that Biden’s actions had been intended to protect his son from Shokin.

However, investigations later concluded that Biden’s actions were consistent with official US policy at the time and aligned with calls from the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and other international organisations, which had criticised Shokin for failing to prosecute corruption.

Source 4.7.2 Lawmakers view a transcript of the Trump–Zelenskyy phone call during an impeachment hearing.

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impeachment the formal process by which a legislative body brings charges against a public official for misconduct, which may lead to removal from office

Antifa a movement of loosely organised groups and individuals who oppose fascism and far-right extremism, often through protests and sometimes confrontational tactics

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

The House of Representatives opened an impeachment inquiry. The impeachment proceedings occurred in a political environment already shaped by earlier investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Trump was accused of a movement of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress after refusing to cooperate fully with the investigation or provide requested documents and testimony. In early 2020, he was impeached by the House but acquitted by the Republican-controlled Senate, with the exception of Republican Senator Mitt Romney, who voted to convict on one charge.

whistleblower a person who reports illegal, unethical or improper behaviour within an organisation, often at personal risk

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There was little evidence that Shokin’s removal protected Hunter Biden or halted investigations into Burisma, since investigations into Burisma continued.

By contrast, Trump’s request focused specifically on gathering potentially damaging information about a political rival in the lead-up to the 2020 election. Around the same period as the phone call, nearly US$400 million in congressionally approved military aid to Ukraine was temporarily withheld. An anonymous whistleblower within the administration reported concerns about the call. Trump publicly attacked the whistleblower and repeatedly called for the individual’s identity to be revealed.

Manufacturing threat narratives: Antifa and unrest

In 2020, following the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin, widespread protests erupted across the United States. While most of the thousands of demonstrations were peaceful, there were approximately 160 reported instances of arson.

Trump and several allies attributed much of the unrest to Antifa. Antifa is not a centralised organisation but rather a loosely connected anti-fascist movement.

Trump insisted that Antifa be designated a terrorist organisation and framed the protests as evidence of a broader radical-left threat.

Trump also repeatedly claimed that Joe Biden, a long-time moderate Democrat, was either a radical or controlled by unnamed radical groups. When pressed for evidence, Trump struggled to identify specific individuals or organisations.

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Source 4.7.3 Protesters gather in New York following the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis.

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Digital mobilisation and symbolic politics

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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In 2020, Trump’s campaign team launched a mobile app that awarded users points for actions such as sharing Trump’s social media posts or forwarding campaign advertisements to contacts.

These points could be exchanged for campaign merchandise, including clothing and accessories bearing the slogan “Make America Great Again” (MAGA). Such merchandise functioned both as fundraising tools and as visible symbols of political identity. The app was later reported to collect extensive user data, including contact lists and geolocation information, raising concerns about digital privacy and data use in political campaigns.

Source 4.7.4 A Holocaust memorial in Brandenburg, Germany featuring a red triangle, historically used to mark political prisoners

During the same period, Trump’s campaign aired advertisements that used an inverted red triangle as a symbol to represent Antifa. The ads suggested that this symbol signified a dangerous extremist threat. It was quickly pointed out that the inverted red triangle had historically been used in Nazi concentration camps to mark political prisoners. After this connection was widely reported, the advertisements were removed by some platforms for violating policies relating to extremist imagery.

These strategies reflected a broader communication approach that relied on mobilisation, symbolism and confrontation. This approach reached its most visible expression during the 2020 presidential debates.

Debates and escalating rhetoric

By late 2020, themes introduced earlier in the campaign – mail-in voting, unrest, radical threats and distrust of institutions – converged on the debate stage. Trump continued to frame the election as a struggle against what he described as the “radical left”. Incidents of violence and arson during protests were repeatedly cited as proof of organised extremism, despite the decentralised nature of protest networks.

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When asked during the first presidential debate to condemn extremist groups, Trump was specifically prompted about the Proud Boys, a far-right militia organisation. Instead of issuing a clear denunciation, he told them to “stand back and stand by”. The phrase was widely circulated and interpreted in conflicting ways, intensifying debate over political extremism and presidential responsibility.

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The debates also revisited earlier disputes over mail-in voting and electoral integrity. Trump Source 4.7.5 People watch the final US presidential debate between President Donald again suggested that widespread Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden in San Francisco, 2020. voting by mail could produce fraud, reinforcing doubts he had expressed since 2019. By this point, scepticism about militia a military force polling, voting procedures and institutional neutrality had become embedded features whose members are of the campaign. trained soldiers but have Post-debate polling indicated that many viewers judged Biden to have performed more effectively on questions of clarity and temperament. However, the broader significance of the debates lay less in performance and more in tone. Public questioning of election legitimacy, coupled with escalating rhetoric about internal enemies, created conditions in which the outcome of the vote was primed to be contested even before ballots were cast.

civilian jobs, and are usually only called into action for specific periods of time

REVIEW 4.7 Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Identify at least two early warning signs that Trump was likely to challenge or refuse to accept an election loss in 2020.

2. Analyse how Trump used themes such as immigration, unrest and distrust during the 2020 campaign.

3. Explain why the Zelenskyy phone call led to impeachment proceedings. Why was Trump ultimately acquitted?

4. Research Joe Biden’s political career prior to 2020. To what extent does his political record support Trump’s portrayal of him as an Antifa-controlled radical?

5. Compare Joe Biden’s role in the removal of Viktor Shokin with Trump’s withholding of military aid to Ukraine. What reasons did investigators give for treating these actions differently?

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4.8 2020 Election Day and its aftermath DRIVING QUESTION What evidence is there for and against Trump’s culpability for the January 6 United States Capitol attack?

Election night and the claim of fraud

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•

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Election Day in 2020 brought immediate controversy. During the ballot-counting phase in the early hours of 4 November 2020, Trump held a press conference at 2 a.m. and prematurely declared victory, stating: “This is a fraud on the American public.

This is an embarrassment to our country. We were getting ready to win this election.

Frankly, we did win this election.” At 9 a.m. on 5 November, he tweeted “STOP THE COUNT”, referring to states in which his early lead was narrowing as mail-in ballots were processed. Because many Democratic voters had chosen mail-in voting during the COVID-19 pandemic, later-counted ballots disproportionately favoured Biden.

These early statements framed the unfolding vote count as illegitimate before final results were certified.

ANALYSIS 4.3

Analysing contestability

Watch each of the following videos. For each one, list points for and against the possibility of voter fraud based on what you observe and any available context. Then make a final judgement about the reliability of each claim.

• • • • •

Filling out empty ballots for Biden in Pennsylvania: https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11800 Crumpling up ballots with votes for Trump rather than counting them in Georgia: https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11801 and https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11802 Burning ballots cast for Trump: https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11803 Dumping ballots cast for Trump in Georgia: https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11805 Collecting uncounted ballots after the election had been called for Biden in California: https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11806

Historical concepts: Perspectives, Contestability Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources, Historical interpretation

debunk to prove that a claim or belief is false

In the days that followed, numerous videos circulated online alleging voter fraud.

These clips were amplified by Donald Trump, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. Claims included ballots being filled out for Biden, ballots for Trump being destroyed, and ballots being dumped or counted illegally. Most of these allegations were later debunked. In several cases, workers were duplicating damaged ballots for machine readability. In others, the footage showed instruction sheets rather than ballots.

Reports of dumped ballots were investigated and found unsupported. Despite this, the narrative of widespread fraud gained traction among many Trump supporters.

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Source 4.8.1 A woman carrying a sign saying “Stop the Steal” during a pro-Trump rally in Beverly Hills, 6 January 2021

Long-time Trump ally Roger Stone and Tea Party activist Amy Kremer organised proTrump internet users under the slogan “Stop the Steal”. A Facebook group of the same name gained more than 300,000 followers in roughly 24 hours before being removed for misinformation. The slogan persisted and became a rallying cry for protests across multiple states. These protests led to dozens of arrests and the hospitalisation of both protesters and police officers. At this stage, public rhetoric about fraud had moved beyond social media posts to organised political mobilisation.

Legal challenges and alternative strategies

Trump’s legal team, led in part by Rudy Giuliani, filed more than 60 lawsuits across nine states alleging widespread voter fraud. Most were dismissed for lack of evidence.

Over 30 were rejected on merit without full hearings. Only one case resulted in a limited procedural ruling in Pennsylvania, which did not materially affect the outcome. As these legal efforts stalled, attention shifted towards procedural and constitutional strategies.

From 5 November onward, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows exchanged text messages with political figures discussing ways to halt or overturn the election result. One of the most significant proposals became known as the Fake Electors Plot. The plan sought to submit alternative slates of electors in closely contested states. These electors would cast votes for Trump regardless of certified state outcomes. Donald Trump Jr texted Meadows: “Republicans control 28 states Democrats 22 states. Once again Trump wins. We either have a vote WE control and WE win OR it gets kicked to Congress 6 January 2021.”

Writing focus 4.8 Noun phrases (drafting)

Source 4.8.2 White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows at a Make America Great Again campaign rally, Lititz, Pennsylvania, 26 October 2020

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joint session of Congress a formal meeting of both houses of Congress held to count and certify Electoral College votes

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

martial law temporary rule by the military instead of civilian government, usually during a crisis

The strategy relied on ambiguity in the Electoral College certification process. After states certify their results, electors formally cast votes in December. Congress then counts and certifies those votes in a joint session on 6 January. The plan proposed that pro-Trump electors in certain states submit competing certificates claiming to represent the legitimate outcome. If multiple slates were received, it was argued that Congress – or potentially the Vice President presiding over the session – could choose which slate to recognise, or send the matter back to state legislatures.

Although some states legally require electors to vote in accordance with certified results, the presence of competing submissions could create procedural confusion.

Proponents of the strategy argued that this uncertainty could delay certification or shift the decision into political rather than judicial channels. An anonymous whistleblower and later congressional investigations revealed communications between Trump advisers, Republican lawmakers and pro-Trump lawyers exploring these possibilities.

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At the same time, more extreme suggestions circulated in December 2020, including declaring martial law, seizing voting machines, or urging Vice President Mike Pence to refuse to certify the results on 6 January. Under US law, the Vice President’s role is largely ceremonial. Nevertheless, arguments were advanced that Pence could reject certain electoral votes or delay certification. These developments marked a shift from courtroom litigation towards direct pressure on constitutional mechanisms for transferring power.

Media amplification and conspiracy narratives

Another major controversy involved claims about Dominion voting machines. On 19 November 2020, lawyer Sidney Powell held a press conference alleging that a network of foreign actors had rigged the election in Biden’s favour. She claimed that leaders from China, Cuba and Venezuela – including Xi Jinping, the Castro family, Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro – had coordinated interference. Powell asserted that Dominion voting machines used algorithms to “flip” votes from Trump to Biden.

No credible evidence was produced to substantiate these claims. Nevertheless, similar allegations were repeated on conservative networks including Fox News, One America News Network (OANN) and Newsmax. Powell continued to defend these claims when she was interviewed on ABC’s Four Corners in August 2021, which you can view here: https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/12170.

Dominion subsequently filed defamation lawsuits. Court proceedings revealed internal communications between prominent media figures. Text messages showed that some hosts privately doubted or rejected Powell’s claims while continuing to discuss election fraud narratives on air.

Fox anchor Tucker Carlson messaged colleague Sean Hannity expressing frustration with the promotion of Powell’s allegations and stated that he believed Biden had won. Yet both Carlson and Hannity continued publicly questioning election integrity during broadcasts. In earlier defamation proceedings unrelated to the 2020 election, Carlson’s legal team had argued that his program should be understood as opinionbased commentary rather than literal factual reporting.

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D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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In 2023, Fox founder Rupert Murdoch acknowledged that some network figures knew Biden had won the election but permitted fraud claims to be aired. According to testimony and filings, concerns existed that strongly pro-Trump viewers might migrate to competitors such as Newsmax if Fox rejected the fraud narrative too forcefully, with any loss in viewership jeopardising future advertising revenue. This commercial pressure formed part of the context influencing editorial decisions.

Throughout this period, fraud claims were presented to large audiences despite repeated judicial dismissals and statelevel certifications affirming Biden’s victory.

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Source 4.8.3 Rupert Murdoch, founder of Fox News, 2019

Meanwhile, former White House aide Alyssa Farah Griffin later stated that Trump privately acknowledged losing the election, reportedly saying while watching Biden on television: “Can you believe I lost to this guy?”

The contrast between broadcast assertions of a stolen election and reported private acknowledgements of defeat became central to later debates about culpability.

By the time Congress prepared to certify the Electoral College vote on 6 January 2021, allegations of fraud had been widely circulated, legally rejected and yet persistently reinforced.

This sustained environment of doubt, grievance and procedural pressure formed the immediate backdrop to the January 6 United States Capitol attack.

REVIEW 4.8 Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Describe Trump’s response to vote-counting statistics on US election night and the following morning.

2. Explain how Trump’s allies responded in the weeks following the election result.

3. Analyse how media organisations contributed to the spread or reinforcement of election fraud claims.

4. Evaluate the evidence for and against Trump’s responsibility for the events leading up to the January 6 United States Capitol attack.

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4.9 Events of January 6 DRIVING QUESTION •

Do the events of January 6 qualify as an insurrection? Why/Why not?

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Mobilisation and preparation

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

In December 2020, Trump began tweeting repeatedly about his dissatisfaction with the election. He encouraged supporters to travel to Washington, DC and protest on 6 January. It was the day Congress was scheduled to count and certify the Electoral College votes for the 2020 election. Most notably, Trump tweeted: “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!”

Following the removal of the Stop the Steal Facebook page, Roger Stone sought to raise the profile of the 6 January protest. He established stopthesteal.org, uploaded a video requesting donations and volunteers, and helped brand the event the “March to Save America”. Another website confirmed that Trump himself would address the crowd at the Ellipse, alongside groups including Stop the Steal and the Tea Party Patriots.

In the weeks leading up to 6 January, numerous online posts went viral encouraging violence against members of Congress. Some included references to firearms and maps of the Capitol building. Others urged more radical action to prevent Biden from being declared president. The Anti-Defamation League described this pattern as online radicalisation. News outlets warned of possible political violence. Washington, DC Mayor Muriel Bowser urged residents to avoid protest areas. Members of Congress contacted police seeking reassurance about security. As protest planning intensified, questions also arose about how quickly federal forces would respond if violence occurred.

Security preparation and command authority

National Guard a reserve military force in the United States that can be activated for state emergencies or federal missions

Christopher Miller, a close ally of Trump, had been appointed Acting Secretary of Defense shortly after the election. Ryan McCarthy, also a Trump appointee, served as Secretary of the Army, and Major General William Walker commanded the Washington, DC National Guard. Because the presidential inauguration had not yet occurred, the military chain of command remained under the outgoing administration on 6 January – that of President Trump.

According to later testimony, Miller and McCarthy required Walker to obtain explicit authorisation before deploying the National Guard in response to civil disturbances, a restriction Walker described as highly unusual compared with previous large-scale protests in Washington. This meant that the Guard could not respond rapidly without senior executive approval.

In the weeks leading up to 6 January, members of Congress, Mayor Muriel Bowser and General Walker expressed concern about possible unrest. They encouraged increased reliance on the Metropolitan Police Department, Capitol Police and the Secret Service to secure the Capitol complex. However, later investigations concluded that Capitol Police were significantly underprepared for the scale and coordination of the violence that unfolded.

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Miller later stated that three days before 6 January, Trump had instructed him to “do whatever was necessary to protect the demonstrators”. According to Miller’s account, Trump did not specifically mention the safety of members of Congress.

Writing focus 4.9 Transitional phrases

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

On 5 January, Roger Stone and other Trump allies spoke at rallies in Washington, DC and encouraged supporters to gather at the Capitol the following day. That evening, several key allies were photographed meeting inside a Trump-owned hotel in Washington, DC. The content of this meeting remains unknown. On the same evening, Brian Cole Jr was recorded on CCTV planting homemade pipe bombs within walking distance of the Capitol building.

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The Save America Rally

Source 4.9.1 Trump addresses supporters at the Save America Rally at the Ellipse, 6 January 2021.

On 6 January, Trump addressed supporters at the Save America Rally at the Ellipse, speaking behind bulletproof glass. Other speakers included Donald Trump Jr, Rudy Giuliani and Amy Kremer. Kremer described the moment as the last chance to “save this republic”. Trump Jr warned congresspeople “we’re coming for you”. Giuliani called for “trial by combat”.

During his speech, which lasted over an hour, Trump made occasional references to peaceful protest – urging supporters to “peacefully and patriotically have your voices heard” – but also repeatedly invoked strength and confrontation. He stated: “You have to show strength”, “We’ve got to get rid of the weak congresspeople” and “If you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore”.

White House staffer Cassidy Hutchinson later testified that Trump was aware some attendees were carrying weapons, including firearms. She further stated that Trump insisted security metal detectors be removed to allow armed supporters into the rally area, allegedly remarking, “They’re not here to hurt me”.

Source 4.9.2 Video overview of the events of January 6, including Trump’s potential incitement of the Stop the Steal crowd

As the speech concluded, segments of the crowd began moving towards the Capitol.

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The breach of the Capitol

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A group of several hundred individuals, including members of the Proud Boys – a male-only white supremacist group known for street fighting – broke away from the larger gathering and moved towards the western perimeter of the Capitol. Joe Biggs, a Proud Boys organiser, led chants. After being threatened by Biggs, Ryan Samsel was the first to breach a police barricade, knocking it over and injuring Officer Caroline Edwards.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Multiple police lines were overwhelmed.

Members of the Oath Keepers – a militia group founded in 2009, whose members carry weapons, take an oath to defend the US Constitution and have claimed that the government is a conspiracy against the American people – and other organised actors advanced towards the building.

Guy Reffitt used a megaphone to urge the crowd forward. Dominic Pezzola smashed a window with a police riot shield shortly after 2 p.m., becoming one of the first rioters to enter the Capitol Building itself.

Rioters sprayed officers with pepper spray, struck them with blunt objects and forced entry through broken windows and doors.

Within minutes, large numbers had entered the building. It was the first time the Capitol Building had been breached since British forces set fire to it in 1814.

Source 4.9.3 Trump supporters clash with Capitol Police at the western perimeter of the US Capitol, 6 January 2021.

Source 4.9.4 Protesters interact with Capitol Police inside the Capitol Building.

Source 4.9.5 A tweet from Donald Trump, published at 2.38 p.m. EST, 6 January

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Lawmakers under threat

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Lawmakers from both chambers were escorted through emergency exits by armed Capitol Police. Staff carried Electoral College ballots in wooden boxes as they moved through corridors, elevators and secure areas. At one point, evacuation routes had to be altered after it was discovered that rioters were approaching designated secure locations. Vice President Mike Pence, who had publicly rejected Trump’s claims of election fraud, was evacuated but refused to leave the Capitol grounds. He later stated that he intended to fulfil his constitutional duty to certify the election results.

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As rioters moved deeper into the Capitol complex, members of Congress were placed in immediate danger. Capitol Police officer Eugene Goodman made an impromptu decision to divert a group of rioters away from the entrance to the Senate Chamber.

By drawing their attention and deliberately leading them in the opposite direction, he created a critical window of time for senators to evacuate. The Senate chamber doors were locked from the inside less than a minute before rioters reached them and began attempting to force entry.

Senate chamber

Great Rotunda

Mike Pence

Senate chamber

House of Representatives chamber

Rioters

Police officer

25 m

Source 4.9.6 Diagram showing how close rioters came to Vice President Mike Pence and the diversion by Officer Eugene Goodman Digital-only chapters • Cambridge University Press & Assessment © Le Cornu, et al 2026 • 978-1-009-83909-9 • (03) 8671 1400

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In the House chamber, Capitol Police and Secret Service officers barricaded glass-panelled doors while lawmakers sheltered inside. When rioters shattered a window, officers drew their weapons and repeatedly ordered the crowd to retreat. Ashli Babbitt attempted to climb through the broken doorway and was shot by an officer.

She later died from her injuries.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

The violence against law enforcement was extensive. More than 140 police officers were injured during the attack.

Officer Daniel Hodges was crushed in a doorway by a surge of rioters. Officer Michael Fanone was beaten, tased and sprayed with chemical irritants. Many officers later reported lasting physical and psychological trauma.

Source 4.9.7 Capitol Police officer Eugene Goodman, December 2022

Restoration of order and certification

incitement encouraging or urging others to commit unlawful or violent acts insurrection a violent uprising against an established authority or government

After several hours, police regained control of the building. Major General Walker received authorisation to deploy the National Guard. Rioters were dispersed from the Capitol grounds. Following security sweeps, Congress reconvened that evening and continued counting electoral votes. Shortly after 3 a.m. on 7 January 2021, Vice President Pence certified Joe Biden’s election victory.

In the immediate aftermath, attention shifted to responsibility for the violence.

On 13 January 2021, Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives for a second time, charged with incitement of insurrection. He was later acquitted by the Republican-dominated Senate.

ANALYSIS 4.4

Analysing contestability

Use Source 4.9.8 to watch President Donald Trump’s televised address to the nation delivered on 7 January 2021, the day after the January 6 United States Capitol attack.

Source 4.9.8 Video of President Trump’s 7 January address to the nation

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

What appears to be the primary purpose of this message?

How does Trump characterise the events of 6 January?

Who does Trump present as responsible for the violence?

Assess the accuracy of Trump’s claim that he “immediately deployed the National Guard”.

Does this address amount to a concession that he lost the 2020 election? Support your answer with specific evidence from the speech.

Historical concepts: Contestability, Perspectives Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources

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Chapter 4 Contestability and commemoration: the January 6 United States Capitol attack

Source 4.9.9 Vice President Mike Pence and Speaker Nancy Pelosi preside over the reconvened joint session of Congress certifying the 2020 Electoral College results, 7 January 2021.

RESEARCH 4.1

Developing profiles

Choose three individuals mentioned in this section – either participants in the attack or police officers involved in the defence of the Capitol – and create detailed profiles of each.

For each individual, include: • • • •

brief background information their activities or public statements in the lead-up to 6 January 2021 their actions during the events at the Capitol the legal, professional or personal consequences they experienced afterwards.

Use reliable sources and reference them appropriately.

Historical concepts: Significance, Contestability Historical skills: Historical investigation and research

REVIEW 4.9 Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Explain how Trump’s strategy evolved from legal and procedural challenges to mass mobilisation of supporters.

2. Identify and evaluate the justifications that some participants in the January 6 attack claimed for their actions.

3. Research the exact words spoken by Trump at the Ellipse and on Twitter on 6 January.

Judge whether these words meet the threshold for incitement of insurrection. Explain your reasoning.

4. Explain the significance of the January 6 attack for American political norms and constitutional processes.

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4.10 Reactions to the January 6 attack and how it has been commemorated DRIVING QUESTIONS How did key leaders react to the January 6 attack?

How is the event viewed five years later?

Immediate reactions, 6–7 January 2021

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• •

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Global reactions to the January 6 US Capitol attack were marked by shock and concern about the stability of American democracy. Many world leaders described the violence as an attack on democratic institutions and emphasised the importance of a peaceful transfer of power. Close US allies, including the United Kingdom and Australia, expressed dismay at the unrest.

Source 4.10.1 Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison comments on the events of 6 January via social media.

Geopolitical rivals such as Russia, Iran and China used the event to criticise the United States, portraying the chaos as evidence of democratic weakness. Most governments condemned the violence, while a few framed it as an internal American matter.

Source 4.10.2 Damage in the US Capitol building in the aftermath of the January 6 attacks.

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RESEARCH 4.2 Summarising political responses The days following 6 January saw statements from current and former US political leaders across party lines.

Position

Quote

Analysis: how significant did they think January 6 was?

Mike Pence

Vice President (Republican)

“Today was a dark day in the United States Capitol … To those who wreaked havoc in our Capitol today, you did not win. Violence never wins. Freedom wins. And this is still the People’s House.”

Very significant. Pence was a real target for rioters, who were told he had the power to “stop the steal” of the election by not certifying the Electoral College result in favour of Joe Biden.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Name

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1. Copy and complete the following table.

2. Use reliable sources to summarise each individual’s response to the January 6 attack.

The first example has been completed for you.

Joe Biden

President-elect (Democrat)

Nancy Pelosi

House Speaker (Democrat)

Colin Powell

Former Secretary of State (Republican)

Barack Obama

Former President (Democrat)

George W. Bush

Former President (Republican)

Bill Clinton

Former President (Democrat)

Jimmy Carter

Former President (Democrat)

William Barr

Former Attorney-General

General Mark Milley and the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Highest-ranking US Defense Department officials

Mitch McConnell

Senator Minority Leader (Republican)

Rush Limbaugh

Right-wing media personality

Tucker Carlson

Right-wing media personality

Sean Hannity

Right-wing media personality

Historical concepts: Perspectives, Significance Historical skills: Historical investigation and research

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Institutional responses and accountability, 2021–2024 Early reflections

Source 4.10.3 Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn reacts during a House committee hearing on the January 6 attack, June 2022.

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On 20 January 2021, when Joe Biden was inaugurated as America’s 46th president, damage was still visible at the Capitol Building, and there was a high level of security.

Donald Trump broke tradition by refusing to attend the ceremony. He was the first president to refuse to join his successor on the transition day since 1869.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

At the ceremony, 22-year-old poet Amanda Gordon was selected to deliver an inauguration poem. She wrote and performed “The Hill We Climb”, which soon became a viral success. Without specifically referring to January 6, Gordon’s uplifting poem expressed the hope that the United States would heal after its time of division. Access it online at https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11913.

seditious conspiracy a serious federal crime in the United States in which two or more people agree to use force to overthrow, oppose or prevent the lawful authority of the government, or to hinder the execution of its laws

Over the following four years of the Biden administration, more than 1500 individuals were charged in connection with the January 6 attack. Nearly 1300 were convicted and sentenced, with the vast majority of them pleading guilty. Penalties ranged from fines and probation to lengthy prison terms. Enrique Tarrio, former leader of the Proud Boys, received one of the longest sentences – 22 years – for seditious conspiracy.

The investigation involved thousands of FBI personnel and became one of the largest criminal investigations in US history.

ANALYSIS 4.5

Analysing significance

Source 4.10.4 Police officer salutes a vehicle carrying the body of Capitol Police officer Brian Sicknick, Washington, DC, 10 January 2021.

Sicknick died on 7 January 2021 after a stroke during the events of January 6.

1. Describe what you see in this image.

2. What does this event suggest about how authorities framed the significance of the January 6 attack?

Historical concepts: Significance, Contestability Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources Digital-only chapters • Cambridge University Press & Assessment © Le Cornu, et al 2026 • 978-1-009-83909-9 • (03) 8671 1400

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In late 2024, Trump returned to the presidency. On his inauguration day in January 2025, he issued pardons to individuals convicted in connection with the January 6 attack. Some senior members of the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys had their prison sentences commuted but retained criminal convictions.

Source 4.10.5 US President Donald Trump signs an executive

commute to reduce the severity of a legal punishment, such as replacing a death sentence with life imprisonment or shortening a prison term

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Presidential pardons are a order pardoning January 6 offenders in the Oval Office of long-standing executive power the White House in Washington, DC, 20 January 2025. in the United States. However, these pardons generated significant debate because Trump used this executive power to pardon people who had been found guilty of attacking the legislative arm of government, with some released immediately from prison. Trump described the convictions as “a grave national injustice” and the pardons as a step towards “national reconciliation”.

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Political reframing and escalation, 2025–2026

Source 4.10.6 Retired federal judge John E. Jones III comments on the January 6 pardons.

When it comes to Jan. 6 offenders, not only do I think they received appropriate due process, but in some cases, I believe they received excessive due process … I think about all of us on Jan. 6, 2021, turning on the TV and seeing something that we’ve never seen before in history. It is rare that something happens for the first time in history, and that searing image is stuck in a lot of folks’ brains.

John E. Jones III. 2025. “Trump’s Jan. 6 Pardon Order ‘Flies in the Face of the Facts’ of Violent Insurrection, Retired Federal Judge Explains.” The Conversation, 21 January.

RESEARCH 4.3

Analysing an article

Access the article “Trump’s election interference case may be closed, but it still matters for America’s future” at https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11807.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Who is Special Counsel Jack Smith, and what was the remit he was handed in 2022?

Describe the findings of Smith’s report.

Why did Smith’s investigation end?

What was the “clear implication” of Trump’s actions leading up to 6 January?

Why does the author conclude that Smith made his statement, even though his investigation into Trump had ended? How does this relate to the topic of “American exceptionalism” introduced in section 4.1 of this chapter?

Historical concepts: Contestability, Causation Historical skills: Historical investigation and research

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ANALYSIS 4.6 Analysing significance The Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys were two organised extremist groups whose senior members were convicted in connection with the January 6 attack. Several leaders were charged with serious federal offences, including seditious conspiracy.

Examine Table 4.10.1 and answer the questions that follow.

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Table 4.10.1 Convictions and presidential pardons or commutations relating to senior members of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers Person

Residence

Affiliation

Outcome

Trump action

Joshua James

Arab, AL

Oath Keepers

Pleaded guilty

Pardoned

Brian Ulrich

Guyton, GA

Oath Keepers

Pleaded guilty

Pardoned

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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William Wilson

Newton Grove, NC

Oath Keepers

Pleaded guilty

Pardoned

Jeremy Bertino

Belmont, NC

Proud Boys

Pleaded guilty

Commuted

Enrique Tarrio

Miami, FL

Proud Boys

Found guilty at trial

Pardoned

Ethan Nordean

Auburn, WA

Proud Boys

Found guilty at trial

Commuted

Joseph Biggs

Ormond Beach, FL

Proud Boys

Found guilty at trial

Commuted

Zachary Rehl

Philadelphia, PA

Proud Boys

Found guilty at trial

Commuted

Stewart Rhodes

Granbury, TX

Oath Keepers

Found guilty at trial

Commuted

Kelly Meggs

Dunnellon, FL

Oath Keepers

Found guilty at trial

Commuted

Joseph Hackett

Sarasota, FL

Oath Keepers

Found guilty at trial

Commuted

Roberto Minuta

Prosper, TX

Oath Keepers

Found guilty at trial

Commuted

David Moerschel

Punta Gorda, FL

Oath Keepers

Found guilty at trial

Commuted

Edward Vallejo

Phoenix, AZ

Oath Keepers

Found guilty at trial

Commuted

Dominic Pezzola

Rochester, NY

Proud Boys

Found not guilty – other charges remained

Pardoned

Thomas Caldwell

Berryville, VA

Oath Keepers

Found not guilty – other charges remained

Commuted

Kenneth Harrelson

Titusville, FL

Oath Keepers

Found not guilty – other charges remained

Commuted

Jessica Watkins

Woodstock, OH

Oath Keepers

Found not guilty – other charges remained

Commuted

1. What patterns do you notice in the legal outcomes (pleaded guilty, found guilty at trial and not guilty on some charges)?

2. Compare the original court outcomes with Trump’s later actions (pardons or commutations). What changed?

3. Based on the seriousness of the charges and sentences, what does this suggest about how the US justice system initially interpreted the January 6 attack?

4. How might presidential pardons or commutations influence public debate about the significance of the January 6 attack?

Historical concepts: Contestability Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources

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Nations do not only respond to crises through investigations and prosecutions.

They also decide how to remember them. Public memory shapes how future generations interpret events – whether they are seen as tragic mistakes, heroic defences of democracy, political overreactions or something else entirely.

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Commemorating the January 6 attack

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Since 6 January 2021, commemorations have taken several forms. Annual ceremonies have been held at the Capitol. Political leaders have delivered speeches reflecting on the attack. Law enforcement officers Source 4.10.7 Demonstrators mark five years since the January 6 attack, injured that day have been honoured.

Washington, DC, 6 January 2026.

Documentary films, books and investigative reports have examined what occurred. At the same time, some political figures and commentators have questioned how the event should be described or whether it has been exaggerated for partisan purposes. In 2025, for example, Trump sued the BBC for US$10 billion in damages over the way a 2024 BBC documentary about January 6 edited his speech, claiming it defamed him by making it appear that he had directly incited the crowd to launch a violent attack.

In this way, the January 6 attack has moved from being a single day of violence to becoming an ongoing debate about meaning. Was it an insurrection? A riot? A protest that spiralled out of control? A defence of democracy? An overreaction by political opponents? The language used to describe the event reflects broader political divisions within the United States.

Commemoration and contestability

Historical events are rarely remembered in neutral ways. In politically polarised societies, commemoration itself can become contested. Competing groups seek to shape public memory in ways that support their political values, identities and narratives.

The January 6 attack has become one of the most contested events in recent American history. Some leaders describe it as a violent attempt to overturn a democratic election. Others argue that it has been politically weaponised or misrepresented.

Disagreements have emerged over presidential pardons, memorial plaques, official timelines and the terminology used to describe the attack.

Source 4.10.8 Protesters await a Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity, Washington, DC, July 2024.

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Congressman Frank Pallone Jr, a Democrat from New Jersey, issued the following press release on the fifth anniversary in January 2026.

Source 4.10.9 Press release by Congressman Frank Pallone Jr marking the fifth anniversary of January 6

Pallone has long condemned efforts by Trump and House Republicans to misrepresent or diminish the significance of the attacks, arguing such efforts show flagrant disrespect for democracy, the rule of law, and the law enforcement officers who uphold them.

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Writing focus 4.10 Source analysis (perspective)

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Congressman Frank Pallone, Jr. (NJ-06) today remembered the fifth anniversary of the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the United States Capitol, and urged President Trump and Speaker Johnson to end their campaign of historical revisionism.

“Five years ago today, violent domestic terrorists attempted to silence the voice of the American people and prevent the representatives they elected to Congress from certifying the results of the 2020 election. The attacks on our rule of law have only continued,” said Pallone. “President Trump has subverted and ignored Congress time and time again. His attempts to rewrite the history of this shameful day – by downplaying its significance and pardoning its perpetrators – are an insult to the nearly 250 years of continuous representative democracy that this Administration claims to celebrate.”

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“Lying about what happened and setting violent criminals free is an insult to the brave law enforcement officers who were injured or killed on that day,” Pallone continued. “This includes Officer Brian Sicknick, a son of Middlesex County, who laid down his life to protect democracy. Republicans claim to support ‘law and order,’ but they continue to betray law enforcement officers by handing out get-out-of-jail-free cards to the terrorists who assaulted them.”

Pallone has led his New Jersey and Democratic colleagues in condemning Speaker Johnson and President Trump for their efforts to stifle remembrance of the January 6 insurrection. He unequivocally condemned President Trump’s release of Julian Khater – the insurrectionist who assaulted Officer Sicknick – as well as the mass pardoning and release of over 1,500 rioters convicted for their role in the attacks.

Frank Pallone Jr. 2026. “Pallone Commemorates Anniversary of January 6 Insurrection, Demands an End to Republicans’ Efforts to Rewrite History.” pallone.house.gov, 6 January.

Source 4.10.10 The January 6 memorial plaque that was installed 5 years and 2 months after the event.

In 2022, Congress passed a law requiring a plaque honouring the January 6 law enforcement officers to be installed on public view at the Capitol Building. Until 2026, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (Republican) refused to allow the plaque to be installed. It was finally installed in March 2026, to honour “the extraordinary individuals who bravely protected and defended this symbol of democracy on January 6, 2021”. It was hung in a doorway that is not used by the general public.

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ANALYSIS 4.7 Analysing contestability What term does Pallone use in Source 4.10.9 to describe the January 6 attack?

Explain the term “historical revisionism”. How does Pallone argue it applies to this event?

Describe how Pallone views Trump’s pardoning of those involved in the January 6 attack.

What does Pallone argue Republicans have tried to do regarding remembrance of the January 6 attack?

What does this source suggest about political divisions in the United States over how the January 6 attack should be remembered?

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Historical concepts: Contestability, Significance Historical skills: Historical investigation and research

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ANALYSIS 4.8

Examining contestability

One way to examine contestability is to compare how different sources present a timeline of 6 January 2021. Official government websites and independent media organisations may emphasise different events, language or interpretations.

Access the following webpages: White House, “January 6” (https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11808) and BBC News, “US Capitol riots: What happened on 6 January?” (https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11809).

1. Copy and complete the following table. Record how the sources describe the events happening at the listed times.

Trump White House version of events

Timeline of 6 January 2021

BBC version of events

8:17 a.m.

10:58 a.m.

12:00 p.m.

12:53–1:00 p.m.

1:10 p.m.

1:45 p.m.

2:13 p.m.

2:24 p.m.

2:26 p.m.

2:41 p.m.

3:13 p.m.

4:17 p.m.

6:00 p.m.

8:00 p.m.

3:40 a.m.

2. Describe how each source generally characterises the January 6 attack.

3. Evaluate how useful each source is for understanding the events of 6 January 2021. How do the differences between them reveal the contested nature of the attack today?

Historical concepts: Contestability, Significance Historical skills: Historical investigation and research

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Source 4.10.11 Lawmakers and the family of Officer Brian Sicknick mark five years since the January 6 attack at the US Capitol, 6 January 2026.

ANALYSIS 4.9

Analysing significance

Watch the PBS report “Five Years Later – The Fight Over How January 6 Is Remembered” at https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11810. If you would prefer to read, the full transcript is available at the same link.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

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Explain what Pamela Hemphill did leading up to and on 6 January 2021.

How does Trump describe the January 6 attack?

Who did Mitch McConnell blame for the attack?

What percentage of Americans does Denver Riggleman believe continue to believe the 2020 election was stolen?

Why does Riggleman argue Congress is holding hearings into “space aliens”?

What event does historian Stephanie McCurry compare the January 6 attack to?

What does McCurry argue is especially significant about how Trump has shaped the narrative around the January 6 attack?

Why did Hemphill refuse a pardon?

Historical concepts: Contestability, Perspectives Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources, Historical interpretation

REVIEW 4.10

Go online to assign and download questions, view results and more!

Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Describe the reactions of the former US presidents who were alive in January 2021.

2. Explain what actions Trump took on his inauguration day in January 2025 in relation to individuals convicted over the January 6 attack.

3. Explain why societies commemorate significant historical events.

4. Describe the different ways the January 6 attack has been commemorated in the United States.

5. Explain why the meaning and legacy of the January 6 attack remain contested in the United States.

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4.11 Steps for the future DRIVING QUESTION What factors contributed to the January 6 attack, and how might similar events be prevented in the future?

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

A key question following the January 6 attack is how similar events might be prevented in the future. Would public condemnation and punishment with heavy penalties deter future attempts to overturn election results? Should social research identify the structural and cultural causes of the crisis? Could political and educational reforms strengthen democratic resilience? Or should the episode be dismissed as an anomaly, and forgotten, to avoid worsening political polarisation?

The possible responses can be broadly grouped into three areas: education reforms, media reforms and political reforms. Since this is an evolving and contested topic, the responses are presented not as definitive solutions but as prompts for you to discuss with your fellow students.

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Educational reforms

Journalists and investigators found that many of the participants on January 6 based their decision to take action on a narrow range of sources of information, and accepted unproven claims as “facts”. Is this a problem that educational reforms could address? One contributing factor is the difficulty many citizens face in evaluating information in a complex digital environment. Strengthening critical thinking skills may help address this issue. Explicit teaching of logical reasoning, rhetorical techniques, cognitive biases and common heuristics (unintentional mental shortcuts) could be embedded progressively across multiple year groups. Such instruction aims to build students’ ability to evaluate both others’ arguments and their own assumptions.

Another proposed reform involves teaching students about the features of authoritarian systems. These may include concentration of state power, erosion of legal safeguards, corruption and the growth of cults of personality.

Students could also examine early warning signs such as political movements demanding conformity, increased xenophobia or misogyny, and the expansion of misinformation echo chambers.

authoritarian of a leader or system that requires strict obedience to a strong central authority, often at the expense of personal freedom cult of personality the deliberate promotion of an individual as an idealised, heroic or infallible leader through propaganda, media control and public displays of loyalty echo chamber a situation in which people are exposed only to opinions similar to their own

Source 4.11.1 Classroom in Long Island, New York

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The concept of “post-truth” is also relevant. It refers to situations in which evidence is knowingly rejected in favour of maintaining or promoting certain beliefs.

Understanding how post-truth dynamics operate may assist students in recognising manipulation or misinformation.

Media reforms

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Since the legal case Citizens United v. FEC (2010), it has been legal for American corporations and unions to spend unlimited funds on independent political advertising, provided the spending was not directly coordinated with candidates.

Since then, large sums have flowed into political advertising and related media campaigns. Where media outlets rely heavily on advertising revenue – including revenue linked to politically active donors, interest groups or lobbying organisations – there may be incentives to shape coverage in ways that keep audiences engaged and advertisers satisfied. In this view, financial pressure can distort coverage even when journalists or presenters privately doubt the claims being promoted. Would reinstating limits on political spending, and requiring public disclosure of media funding, reduce the influence of wealthy donors and interest groups on media coverage?

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

algorithm a set of rules or instructions used by a computer to determine how digital content is selected, ranked or displayed

In the realm of media, at least four reforms are worth considering: greater transparency around media funding and political advertising, stronger public and community-owned media, improved transparency (or simplification) of social media algorithms, and more visible fact-checking in online spaces.

What role should there be for publicly funded and community-funded media? Pointing to the independence of organisations such as the ABC in Australia and the BBC in Britain, analysts argue that, because these outlets are less dependent on advertising contracts, they may be less vulnerable to commercial pressure.

In the United States, PBS and NPR already play this role and were widely seen as more cautious about repeating unverified election fraud claims in 2020–21. The argument here is not that public media is perfect or free from bias, but that broader funding and clear standards could Source 4.11.2 PBS headquarters in Arlington, Virginia expand high-quality, evidence-based reporting that is not primarily driven by audience capture or advertising revenue. The counterargument, put by Donald Trump and Elon Musk when they cancelled government funding for public broadcasters in 2025, is that publicly funded journalists tend to be biased towards a “deep state” or towards politicians who favour public funding of all services.

The events of January 6 were organised by, and promoted on, social media. As social media develops, how might laws or regulations limit its potentially damaging effects? Analysts pay particular attention to the design of social media algorithms.

Engagement-based recommendation systems can intensify polarisation by repeatedly pushing users towards similar content, and sometimes more extreme versions of it.

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One proposed response is algorithmic transparency: requiring platforms to make clearer what they promote, why they promote it and how users can control it. Another, more direct, proposal is algorithmic simplicity. Before the 2010s, many platforms relied more heavily on chronological feeds and content that users actively chose to follow (often friends and family).

Alt Right Pipeline a phenomenon in which the gradual consumption of right-wing online content drives someone further down the far-right “pipeline”

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The so-called Alt Right Pipeline is a prominent example used to describe how gradual exposure to right-wing online content can lead some individuals towards more extreme views. Some January 6 participants, including conspiracy adherents, told investigators they were influenced by online communities and creators that reinforced their beliefs. One participant, 66-year-old Pamela Hemphill, said that later she realised that it was like being a member of a “cult”. She pleaded guilty and served 60 days in prison. In 2025, when Trump pardoned her, she rejected the pardon, saying she owned her guilt and felt naive for believing what she was told.

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Would greater deployment of visible fact-checking help reduce the reach of misinformation? One model is immediate, in-platform correction mechanisms. X Source 4.11.3 Social media algorithms that prioritise engagement can intensify polarisation. (formerly Twitter) has used a community notes feature that allows users to add contextual information to posts, with notes displayed when they meet visibility thresholds. By contrast, traditional media (e.g.

TV or newspaper) audiences often need to consult multiple sources to test claims or locate corrections.

Political reforms

January 6 caused a constitutional crisis that raised multiple questions about how the different components of the US political system interact. This led commentators to debate how robust liberal democracy was in America, and around the world. Can the existing systems survive disruptions and attacks? Are reforms needed? Proposals include to reinforce the separation of powers, clarify ambiguities in law, decentralise critical electoral and judicial processes, and reduce excessive partisan influence over key checks and balances.

checks and balances rules intended to prevent one person or group from having too much power within an organisation or political system

The separation of powers has been a core feature of American democracy since its founding. It was designed to prevent any one branch of government from accumulating excessive authority, with the executive (president), legislative (Senate and House of Representatives) and judicial (Supreme Court) powers being “co-equal”.

Over time, most observers argue that congressional authority has gradually weakened relative to executive power. While this trend did not begin with any single president, periods of intense partisanship have accelerated debates about institutional imbalance. Should an effort be made to clarify more precisely the respective powers of Congress and the President? Should the influence of the President over nominees to the Supreme Court be ended to make the judiciary more independent?

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Other political debates concern the unique processes that the United States uses to elect their presidents. Is it time to revisit them?

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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The electoral college system, for example, varies from state to state, and in some cases the electors are not legally required to vote in accordance with the way the people in their state voted. While this is rare, is it a loophole that should be closed? The certification also appears vulnerable, after the pressure that was placed on VicePresident Mike Pence on January 6 to overrule the election result. He Source 4.11.4 President Joe Biden addressing Congress, 2024 later said, “the truth is, there’s almost no idea more un-American than the notion that any one person could choose the American president”. In response, Congress passed the Electoral Count Reform Act in 2022, which clarified that the Vice-President had no legal right to reject certified electoral votes during the process.

What next?

The events of January 6 significantly altered the landscape of US politics. What many had previously considered unlikely became a visible and consequential reality. Four years later, despite the deaths, damage and guilty pleas, a majority of American voters chose Donald Trump, and he was elected to a second term as president. He continued to claim that the 2020 election was “stolen” from him, and that the January 6 attack was a day of “love”. During that term, he pursued policies that expanded executive authority in relation to the courts, Congress and state governments. This revived the debates about the balance of power within the American political system. While the issues continue to be highly contested, it is clear that democratic institutions are not immune to strain.

REVIEW 4.11

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Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Identify at least five proposed reforms identified in this section that aim to strengthen American democracy.

2. Propose one additional reform that could reduce the risk of democratic instability.

3. Identify two long-term historical or cultural factors that may have contributed to the January 6 attack. Suggest one possible response to each.

4. Analyse the significance of Mike Pence’s 2021 statement that it would be “un-American” for a Vice President to overrule an election result.

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4.12 Chapter review Revise and consolidate your learning with these online tools: Download or answer questions online View suggested responses Writing focus worksheets.

Teachers can access these additional downloadable resources and Learning Management System features: Individual student reports Assign tasks and track results Exam Generator: create custom practice exams Writing focus workbook.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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Chapter summary •

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The United States has often viewed itself as historically and politically exceptional, tracing this belief to early European settlers, including Puritans, who sought to build a new society based on religious and political ideals.

Exceptionalist beliefs can contribute to a perception that American democratic institutions are inherently stable or immune to decline.

Multiple presidents before Donald Trump tested or expanded the limits of executive authority, contributing to long-running debates about the growing power of the presidency within the constitutional system.

No president before Trump had refused to concede defeat after losing a presidential election or publicly claimed that the election result was fraudulent.

Racist, nativist and anti-democratic political movements have existed in the United States for more than a century and have periodically gained prominence. Racial discrimination was embedded in US law and political institutions for much of the country’s history.

Some of these earlier movements share similarities with elements of Trump’s political messaging, suggesting that “Trumpism” drew on existing political traditions rather than emerging entirely without precedent.

Trump’s early life was shaped by considerable wealth and privilege. Accounts of his upbringing often emphasise competitiveness and ambition.

Trump’s business career included high-profile successes and failures, along with legal and ethical controversies. Over time, he developed extensive networks in business, media and politics.

Trump entered national politics in part through promoting the “Birther” conspiracy theory about Barack Obama’s citizenship and partly by building on his reputation as a realty TV celebrity.

Trump won the 2016 election as a political “outsider” in a campaign featuring attacks on mainstream politicians and interference by Russian operatives.

Trump’s first presidential term was marked by significant controversy, including disputes over immigration policy and the border wall, the US–China trade war, responses to racial unrest, tensions with the media and the COVID-19 pandemic.

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The 2020 campaign was characterised by escalating rhetoric about election fraud, and after trying to pressure Ukraine, Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives but acquitted by the Senate.

After the official results of the 2020 election showed Joe Biden had won, Trump and some allies pursued legal challenges and explored procedural strategies aimed at overturning or delaying certification of the election results. Their court cases were unsuccessful.

On 6 January 2021, during the certification of the Electoral College vote, a crowd of Trump supporters, including right-wing extremist groups, breached the US Capitol and disrupted proceedings. Trump was later impeached for incitement of insurrection but acquitted by the Senate.

The violence resulted in injuries to more than 140 police officers and several deaths connected to the events of that day.

Proposed measures to reduce the risk of similar crises include strengthening civic and media literacy education, improving transparency and accountability in digital and traditional media, clarifying constitutional procedures and reinforcing checks and balances within the political system.

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How to answer an exam question Example question (4 marks)

Explain the main ways in which Trump and his allies responded to the results of the 2020 election.

The key verb in this question is explain, which means you should show the relationships between events and ideas. This includes outlining the tactics employed by Trump and his supporters, and how these were challenged by legislative, judicial and popular responses.

Note that the question focuses on responses to the 2020 election results. Your answer should remain closely focused on these developments.

Marking criteria Criteria •

Marks 4

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Explains the ways in which multiple responses to the 2020 election were employed Communicates logically using historical terms and concepts

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Provides information about responses to the 2020 election Communicates using some appropriate historical terms and concepts

3

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Provides some information about responses to the 2020 election Communicates using some appropriate historical terms and/or concepts

2

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Provides some relevant information

1

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Sample response

This was followed by a highly influential stream of video clips alleging widespread voter fraud. Many of these were later removed or labelled as misleading by social media platforms. The uproar generated by these claims was harnessed by an organised movement known as “Stop the Steal”, which encouraged multiple protests. When these protests failed to overturn the election result, Trump’s allies lodged dozens of lawsuits; most were dismissed due to a lack of credible evidence.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

After the failure of these legal challenges, Trump’s allies explored various strategies that they hoped might overturn the election, including the Fake Electors Plot and putting pressure on Vice President Mike Pence to reject certified electoral votes. The failure of each of these tactics contributed to the escalating tensions that culminated in the January 6 United States Capitol attack.

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As the results of the 2020 election were tallied, Joe Biden’s victory became increasingly clear. In an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to overturn the result, Donald Trump and key allies employed a number of tactics. Trump and his supporters sought to halt the counting of ballots, particularly mail-in votes that they alleged were fraudulent, famously tweeting “STOP THE COUNT”. These efforts failed due to the decentralised nature of US elections, in which vote counting is administered by state authorities rather than the sitting president.

Source 4.12.1 Video on answering the exam question

Exam-style short-answer questions

As NESA reminds us, your answer will be assessed on how well you: • • •

demonstrate historical knowledge and understanding relevant to the question communicate ideas and information logically use historical terms and concepts appropriately.

Marking rubrics are available in the Interactive Textbook.

Question 1 (4 marks)

Describe the influence of at least three key mentors on Trump’s business and political careers.

Question 2 (4 marks)

Explain the ways that The Art of the Deal and The Apprentice may have contributed to Trump’s political success.

Question 3 (7 marks)

Explain why the perspectives of Source A and Source B would be useful to a historian studying the January 6 Capitol attack.

In your answer, integrate evidence from Source A and Source B.

Question 4 (10 marks)

Propose and justify reforms that could strengthen democratic stability in the United States in the future.

In your answer, integrate evidence from Source C.

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Modern History Transformed Year 11 Second Edition

Exam-style extended-response question As NESA reminds us, your answer will be assessed on how well you: • • • •

demonstrate historical knowledge and understanding relevant to the question use relevant evidence and interpretation to support your response communicate ideas and information using historical terms and concepts appropriately present a sustained, logical and cohesive response.

Question 5 (25 marks)

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Marking rubrics are available in the Interactive Textbook.

a. How significant were the cultural, political and economic contexts of the United States in causing Trump to be elected in 2016?

OR

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b. Account for the differences in the ways the events of January 6 were commemorated in the five years following the attack.

Source booklet Source A

They didn’t come because of me. They came because of the election. They thought the election was a rigged election and that’s why they came. Some of those people went down to the Capitol, I said, peacefully and patriotically, nothing done wrong at all.

Nothing done wrong. And action was taken, strong action. Ashli Babbitt was killed.

Nobody was killed. There were no guns down there. We didn’t have guns. The others had guns, but we didn’t have guns. And when I say “we” these are people that walk down, this was a tiny percentage of the overall, which nobody sees and nobody shows.

But that was a day of love from the standpoint of the millions, it’s like hundreds of thousands. It could have been the largest group I’ve ever spoken before. They asked me to speak. I went and I spoke and I used the term peacefully and patriotically.

Extract from Donald Trump at Univision Town Hall, 16 October 2024.

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…what I saw was just a war scene. It was something like I had seen out of the movies.

I couldn’t believe my eyes. There were officers on the ground. You know, they were bleeding, they were throwing up … I saw friends with blood all over their faces. I was slipping in people’s blood. You know, I was catching people as they fell. It was carnage.

It was chaos. I can’t even describe what I saw. Never in my wildest dreams did I think that, as a police officer, as a law enforcement officer, I would find myself in the middle of a battle. You know, I am trained to detain, you know, a couple of subjects and, you know, handle a crowd, but I am not combat trained. That day, it was just hours of hand-to-hand combat, hours of dealing with things that were way beyond what any law enforcement officer has ever trained for.

Extract from Serial No. 117-2 (House Hearing) – Hearing on the January 6th Investigation.

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Source C

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Nationally, and across all regions, Trump’s average over-performance was higher in more economically-, socially-, and health-distressed counties. Specifically, Trump performed better in counties with more economic distress, worse health, higher drug, alcohol and suicide mortality rates, lower educational attainment, and higher marital separation/divorce rates. ...this is not an exhaustive list of factors that likely influenced the election, and many of these factors are strongly correlated, making it difficult to disentangle those with the strongest influence. But these findings make it difficult to argue that localized economic distress was not a salient contributor to the 2016 Presidential election outcome. Of course, this is a place-level analysis so we cannot say who voted for Trump with these data. What remains murky is whether economically-distressed residents themselves supported Trump (or simply did not come out for Clinton) or whether Trump amassed his support among less-distressed community residents who were anxious about and frustrated with the poverty, joblessness, and illness they saw around them. Ultimately, what these descriptive findings suggest is that Trump performed well within these “landscapes of despair.”

Extract from Shannon Monnat and David Brown, More than a rural revolt: Landscapes of despair and the 2016 Presidential election, 2017, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ S0743016717307386?via%3Dihub

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy: personality study

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FOCUS

By using a range of historical sources and contemporary reports, you will investigate the life and influence of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine.

KEY ISSUES

You will explore: •

The historical context of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s life, including: – the Soviet Union – Ukrainian independence – war with Russia

•

The nature of the features, people, ideas, movements, events and developments selected for study, including: – the influence of previous Ukrainian leaders – Zelenskyy’s career before politics – Zelenskyy’s leadership style – the influence of new media and technology – Zelenskyy’s relationship with the United Nations and world powers

•

A relevant historical debate or issue, including: – the basis of Ukraine as a nation-state – the international significance of the Russia–Ukraine war

Enhance your learning with these integrated online resources: Digital downloads

Videos

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Teachers:

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Suggested responses Download or answer questions online Writing focus worksheets

Writing focus workbook Exam Generator Planning documents

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TIMELINE 1978

Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy is born in Kryvyi Rih, central Ukraine

1979

Soviet Union invades Afghanistan

1984

Zelenskyy begins school

1986

Chernobyl nuclear disaster in Ukraine

1991

End of the Soviet Union and establishment of Ukraine as an independent state

1995

Zelenskyy attends Kyiv National Economic University, studies law and joins theatre groups

1997

Comedy group Kvartal 95 becomes a regular on KVN, Russian television

2000

Vladimir Putin becomes president of the Russian Federation

2003

Zelenskyy launches the entertainment company Studio Kvartal 95 and marries Olena Kyiashko

2004–05

Orange Revolution ousts pro-Russian politicians

2006

Zelenskyy wins Dancing with the Stars Ukraine

2013–14

Revolution of Dignity forces pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych to flee to Russia

2014

Russia annexes Crimea and sends military support to separatists in the Donbas

2015–19

Zelenskyy stars as an accidental president in the television series Servant of the People

2019

Zelenskyy is elected president of Ukraine with 73% of the vote

2020

COVID-19 and anti-corruption measures lower Zelenskyy’s approval rating

2022

Russia invades Ukraine on 24 February; Zelenskyy’s approval rating rises from 25% to more than 90%

2023

Zelenskyy calls on the United Nations to uphold international law; the International Criminal Court issues an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin

2025

Newly elected US President Donald Trump indicates a preference for negotiating with Putin rather than Zelenskyy

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7.1 Introduction: a different kind of leader DRIVING QUESTION What made Volodymyr Zelenskyy a different kind of leader?

A new leader

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D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

To deliver a speech to the General Assembly of the United Nations (UN) as the leader of your country is a major honour. The venue, sometimes called “the world’s stage”, knows what to expect. Every September, presidents, prime ministers and heads of state gather in New York City to represent the views of their peoples. The media eagerly awaits the moment, as it is often used to signal a new direction or a strategic decision.

Source 7.1.1 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses world leaders at the United Nations, New York, via video link, September 2022.

Speeches by leaders follow a pattern. When it is their turn, they step onto the central platform, take their place behind the marble lectern and look out at delegates from 193 nation-states as they outline their concerns about the present and their vision for the future. They are encouraged to keep to a 15-minute limit.

Leaders’ reputations can be made or ruined at the UN, and they know it. To prepare for the moment, they typically smooth down their tailored business suit, grasp the sides of the lectern, take a deep breath and smile for the cameras. To settle their nerves, they might reflect on how they earned the right to be there: a long career in politics, public service or the military; years of election campaigns; and experience in law-making and diplomacy. Having reassured themselves that they deserve to be heard, they begin: “Fellow leaders, ladies and gentlemen …”

But in September 2022, that is not how Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did it.

It was the 77th UN General Assembly, and leaders were meeting in person in New York for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike other leaders, Zelenskyy was not there to stand behind the marble lectern; he sat at a desk in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, and addressed the world via video link from a secure location.

Zelenskyy could not afford to leave because he was commanding the defence of his nation, seven months after Russia’s Vladimir Putin began a full-scale invasion. He had no tailored suit to smooth down; instead, he wore an olive-green T-shirt, faintly embossed with the trident that symbolises Ukraine’s independence.

Unlike many other leaders, Zelenskyy had little political experience to draw upon.

Before his election – which he won in a landslide – he had not been a politician but an actor and comedian.

As soon as he appeared on the giant screens of the UN, it was clear that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was different from many other world leaders. He had earned the right to speak on behalf of his people in a different way and seemed to embody a new form of twenty-first-century leadership. He began, “Greetings to all people of the world who value peace and unity …”.

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Source 7.1.2 Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speech to United Nations, 22 September 2022

Greetings to all people of the world who value peace and unity between different and equal nations!

I wish you all peace!

I thank you that we are united in our striving to restore peace and to guarantee peace for any nation that has become a victim of the armed aggression.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine. 2022. “Speech at the General Debate of the 77th session of the UN General Assembly.” President of Ukraine official website.

A MATTER OF FACT

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Zelensky or Zelenskyy?

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A crime has been committed against Ukraine, and we demand just punishment.

In the Ukrainian Cyrillic alphabet, the president’s surname is Зеленський. The official English-language spelling is Zelenskyy, and that’s what we use in this text. However, many writers and media outlets use Zelensky. Other variations include Zelenskiy, Zelenskyi or Zelenski, reflecting different transliterations of the original alphabet.

Writing focus 7.1 Question words

ANALYSIS 7.1

Analysing a source

Watch or read the transcript of Zelenskyy’s 2022 United Nations speech at https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11786.

1. What do you think was the most significant aspect of Zelenskyy’s speech?

2. How does the speech match or challenge your prior knowledge of Ukraine or Volodymyr Zelenskyy?

3. How does this speech relate to events in the world today?

4. What do you hope to learn more about to understand the issues more fully?

Source 7.1.3 Zelenskyy’s video address to the UN General Assembly, September 2022

Historical concepts: Continuity and change, Perspectives Historical skills: Historical interpretation

REVIEW 7.1 Online quiz

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Review questions

Access sample responses and results

Identify the role of Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Describe why Zelenskyy’s 2022 United Nations speech was different from others.

Explain how Zelenskyy referred to Russia in his 2022 United Nations speech.

Explain what Zelenskyy called on the United Nations to do.

Explain the effects of Zelenskyy’s style of presentation.

Research the trident symbol on Zelenskyy’s shirt and explain its significance.

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7.2 The Ukraine of Zelenskyy’s birth DRIVING QUESTION What sort of nation was Zelenskyy born into?

Born in the Soviet Union

Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy was born in 1978 in the industrial city of Kryvyi Rih, central Ukraine. The city had a population of about 645,000, and Ukraine around 49.5 million. At the time, Ukraine was officially known as the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, and was one of the constituent republics of the Soviet Union. It had held this status since 1922, when the communists won the Russian Civil War and established the Soviet Union.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Writing focus 7.2 Noun phrases (identify)

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communism a theory or system of social organisation in which all property is owned by the community and each person contributes according to their ability and receives according to their needs

Zelenskyy was born into a Russian-speaking Jewish family. Several of his ancestors were murdered in the Holocaust during Nazi Germany’s invasion of the region in the Second World War. His father was a computer scientist and his mother an engineer.

As a child, Zelenskyy enjoyed performing and making people laugh, and he thought that when he grew up, he might be a border guard, a translator or a diplomat.

Source 7.2.1 Kryvyi Rih, Zelenskyy’s home city and a major centre of iron and steel production

In the 1980s, Ukraine was governed by the central Soviet leadership in Moscow.

After Russia, Ukraine was the most significant Soviet republic in terms of population and strategic location. It produced large quantities of grain and was often called the “breadbasket” of Europe. Kryvyi Rih was a major centre for iron and steel production and had a strong working-class culture.

Zelenskyy’s parents, like other citizens, could vote for local representatives, but all candidates belonged to the Communist Party. Ukrainian children were taught to be loyal Soviet citizens. Zelenskyy’s school uniform included a red scarf to represent communism, and he belonged to the “Little Octobrists” youth group for younger children.

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At home, however, many Ukrainian families ensured their children understood that Moscow had often treated Ukraine harshly. During the rule of Joseph Stalin (1924–53), Soviet policies contributed to the “Holodomor” famine of 1932–33, which killed millions of Ukrainians. Moscow also promoted “Russification” – requiring people to learn the Russian language and encouraging Russian speakers to move into the republics.

RUSSIAN SOVIET FEDERATIVE SOCIALIST REPUBLIC (RSFSR)

UKRAINIAN SSR

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800 km

Key:

ESTONIAN SSR

LATVIAN SSR

BELORUSSIAN SSR

MOLDAVIAN SSR

GEORGIAN SSR

ARMENIAN SSR

AZERBAIJAN SSR

TURKMEN SSR

UZBEK SSR

TAJIK SSR

KIRGHIZ SSR

KAZAKH SSR

LITHUANIAN SSR

Source 7.2.2 Soviet Union administrative divisions, 1989. The Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic is shown in yellow on the western edge of the Soviet Union.

Problems in the Soviet Union

When Zelenskyy was at school, the Soviet Union was faltering. Decades of rivalry with the United States in the Cold War, including expensive arms races and proxy wars, had stretched the state beyond its financial limits. Further disasters led many people to call for change.

Source 7.2.3 Afghan Mujahideen fighters in Kunar Province, Afghanistan, c. 1980. Despite lacking a formal military structure, they resisted Soviet forces for years.

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Soviet–Afghan War

Chernobyl disaster

A second disaster was closer to home for the Zelenskyys. In April 1986, at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, on Ukrainian soil, the worst nuclear accident in history occurred.

Due to human error and design flaws, a reactor exploded. Radioactive “fallout” dust spread across Ukraine, Belarus and Russia, and into parts of Europe. Soviet authorities initially denied that it had happened, but eventually had to relocate 200,000 people. Tens of thousands developed radiation-related illnesses. Chernobyl raised questions about the Soviet state’s ability to manage sensitive technology and about the central government’s control of information.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Source 7.2.4 Child cancer patients after the Chernobyl disaster in Ukraine

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One disaster was the attempt by Leonid Brezhnev (Soviet leader, 1964–82, who coincidentally was born in Ukraine) to keep a Soviet-aligned communist government in power in Afghanistan. For a decade from 1979, over 500,000 Soviet soldiers and support staff were sent to Afghanistan. Despite their superior technology, they failed to defeat the local Islamist resistance movement, whose fighters were known as the Mujahideen.

Source 7.2.5 Mine workers attend a strike meeting in Donetsk, Ukraine, July 1989. Workers across the Soviet Union demanded better living conditions and political reform.

New reforms

Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev (1985–91), a lifelong communist, saw that the system was failing. He withdrew troops from Afghanistan and introduced the policies of “glasnost” (openness) and “perestroika” (restructuring) to promote greater openness, transparency and limited market reform. However, these reforms also unleashed a wave of criticism and demands for more rapid change.

ANALYSIS 7.2

Summarising

Summarise the context of Zelenskyy’s childhood by completing the following sentences.

1. In 1922, Ukraine … [did what] … because … [why they did it] … which meant [why it mattered].

2. In the 1980s, Ukraine … [what it was like] … because … [why it was like that] … which meant [why it mattered to Zelenskyy].

3. For a decade from 1979, the Soviet Union … [did what] … and … [what happened] … which showed [why it mattered].

4. In 1986, … [what happened] … because … [why it happened] … which showed [why it mattered].

Historical concepts: Perspectives Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources

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The end of the Soviet Union

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

In August 1991, after an attempted coup in Moscow failed to restore communist hardliners to the leadership, the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) of Ukraine declared complete secession from the Soviet Union, as did Belarus, Moldova and Russia.

Suddenly, there was no more Soviet Union, and the people of Ukraine were living in their own nation-state.

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In Soviet-aligned Eastern Europe, popular anti-communist movements arose. In 1989, Poland became democratic and the Berlin Wall was torn down in Germany.

Within the Soviet Union, Gorbachev allowed open elections in the constituent republics from late 1989, which resulted in the election of many non-communist governments. The new leaders then took steps towards independence.

Source 7.2.6 Soviet soldiers sit on their tank and read newspapers in Moscow during an attempted coup in August 1991.

REVIEW 7.2 Online quiz

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Review questions

Access sample responses and results

Identify Ukraine’s political status from 1922 to the 1980s.

Identify where and when Volodymyr Zelenskyy was born.

Explain Zelenskyy’s family background.

Explain how the Soviet Union collapsed.

Explain in a short paragraph the political context of Zelenskyy’s childhood.

Discuss why Ukrainians living in the Soviet Union may have wanted independence.

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7.3 Independent Ukraine DRIVING QUESTION What did independence mean for Ukraine?

Independence Source 7.3.1 Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Independence Day Speech, 24 August 2021

We are a young country with a thousand-year history.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 2024. “Sixth Independence Day speech.” Wilson Center website.

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Ukraine an old Slavic word meaning “borderland”; referring to frontier territory, later it was understood to be a distinct region or country

The independence of Ukraine was confirmed by a public referendum on 1 December 1991, with an overwhelming “yes” vote of more than 92%. Volodymyr Zelenskyy was just starting high school at the time: too young to be involved, but old enough to understand the celebrations on the streets.

The collapse of the Soviet Union marked the beginning of a difficult period of transition. As Gorbachev warned in his resignation speech in December 1991, “the old system collapsed before the new one had time to begin”. While many people began building post-Soviet lives, others – including Vladimir Putin, a former Russian secret service agent with political ambitions – regarded the break-up of the Soviet Union as something that should never have happened.

Ukraine did not entirely cut ties with its fellow former Soviet states. The first elected president, Leonid Kravchuk, was a former communist. In December 1991, he signed an agreement with Russia and Belarus to establish the Commonwealth of Independent States, which 11 former Soviet states eventually joined.

Source 7.3.2 Celebrations in Kyiv in 1991 revive Ukraine’s flag, which had been banned during Soviet rule: blue represents the sky and yellow represents wheat fields.

Ukraine also sought to demonstrate that it posed no threat to global peace by removing the 1700 Soviet nuclear warheads that remained on its soil. However, it did not want to be left vulnerable, particularly given that its neighbour Russia was a nuclear-weapon state. To address this concern, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances in 1994.

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ANALYSIS 7.3 Analysing a source Source 7.3.3 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, 1994

Taking into account the commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory within a specified period of time, Noting the changes in the world-wide security situation, including the end of the Cold War, which have brought about conditions for deep reductions in nuclear forces, …

The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and The United States of America reaffirm …

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

[2] their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

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Welcoming the Accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapon state,

[3] their commitment … to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

[4] their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon state party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used …

United Nations. 1994. “Memorandum on security assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.” United Nations Treaty Collection.

1. Identify the international treaty Ukraine had acceded to before this memorandum.

2. List the nation-states that made commitments under the Budapest Memorandum not to threaten Ukraine.

3. Explain three commitments that Ukraine gained through the Budapest Memorandum in return for relinquishing its nuclear weapons. Why might Ukraine have wanted those commitments?

4. A “treaty”, such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, is legally binding. A “memorandum” is not, but indicates political commitments. What is the significance of this distinction?

Historical concepts: Causation Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources

A challenging transition

In Ukraine, people increasingly embraced Ukrainian culture and language. However, the new government found the transition away from Moscow and the command economy challenging, and the country experienced a major economic depression.

Inflation made common items more expensive and rendered people’s life savings nearly worthless. In 1989, Ukraine’s GDP had been around US$1600 per person.

Ten years later, it had fallen to under US$650 per person.

For teenagers like Volodymyr Zelenskyy, one visible sign of the economic crisis was the long queues that formed outside grocery stores during nationwide shortages of basic necessities.

Writing focus 7.3 Noun phrases (identify and develop)

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oligarchs a small group of very powerful people who control a government or society, especially those who became wealthy and influential after the collapse of the Soviet Union

Private businesses were allowed to take over operations that had previously been run by the state. In the process, a small number of well-connected Ukrainian politicians became major business owners. Self-interested oligarchs controlled key industries and became extremely wealthy at the same time that most people were worse off than before.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

kleptocracy a system of government in which leaders enrich themselves by stealing public funds or state assets

Industrial towns like Zelenskyy’s Kryvyi Rih also faced unemployment and problems with street crime and gangs. So many teenagers joined gangs or lived on the streets that they were described as “Ukraine’s lost generation”. Zelenskyy avoided this by focusing on his studies and becoming involved in theatre, but he often felt unsafe outside his home.

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Source 7.3.4 Homeless children in Kyiv, part of Ukraine’s “lost generation” who lived on the streets

Source 7.3.6 Video on Ukrainian politics and the Orange Revolution

Source 7.3.5 Yulia Tymoshenko and presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko appear before a crowd during the “Orange Revolution” in 2004. Yushchenko suffered facial disfigurement after being poisoned during the campaign.

The oligarchs moved much of their wealth outside the country to avoid paying taxes.

They also developed close relationships with political leaders, raising serious concerns about corruption. By 2013, Transparency International ranked Ukraine 144th in the world on its Corruption Perceptions Index (where number one is the least corrupt).

Some commentators referred to Ukraine and Russia as kleptocracies.

Growing frustration with corruption led to mass protests during the 2004 presidential election, known as the Orange Revolution. Watch the video in Source 7.3.6 to learn more.

REVIEW 7.3

Go online to assign and download questions, view results and more!

Online quiz

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Review questions

Access sample responses and results

Identify the status of Ukraine from 1991.

Describe the challenges that Ukraine faced in the 1990s.

Explain the competing influences on Ukrainian politics in the 2000s.

Explain the causes and consequences of the Orange Revolution.

Explain in a short paragraph the social context of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s teenage years.

Select one of the Ukrainian politicians mentioned in this lesson and research their life.

Explain what they stood for and what they did.

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7.4 The Russian question DRIVING QUESTION How did different perspectives within Ukraine and Russia influence the crises of 2013–14?

When Volodymyr Zelenskyy was finishing his law degree at university, the main question facing Ukraine was the future of its relationship with Russia. Should it continue close relations with its giant neighbour, or turn away from Russia and towards Western Europe?

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Comedy, not politics

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As a young man, Zelenskyy had nothing to do with politics. He was interested in television, especially in Russia. Despite earning a law degree, Zelenskyy’s ambition was to become an entertainer.

Zelenskyy entered a team in a competition run by the hugely popular Russian television show KVN (“The Club of the Funny and Inventive”). Across the former Soviet republics, teams performed sketches and improvisation in Russian in front of a panel of judges.

There were regional championships, and the ultimate prize was entry to the international league, held in Source 7.4.1 Zelenskyy, centre, performing with his comedy group Moscow. In 1997, Zelenskyy’s team reached Moscow Kvartal 95 in 2018 and won equal first place.

Zelenskyy stayed in Moscow. As regular performers on KVN, Kvartal 95 became some of Ukraine’s bestknown comedians. His team were concerned about the way Vladimir Putin was encouraging Russian nationalism. However, they avoided overt politics in their comedy routines. Putin regularly attended the KVN finals and did not tolerate being mocked.

In 2003, Zelenskyy returned to Ukraine as a celebrity. He married his teammate Olena Kiyashko and moved to Kyiv to start a television production company called Studio Kvartal 95. Armed with what a media executive described as a “bulletproof belief in himself”, Zelenskyy produced a comedy show, sitcoms, romances and cooking programs.

He was focused on the creative arts and did not involve himself in the Orange Revolution. In 2006, Zelenskyy won Ukraine’s Dancing with the Stars.

Source 7.4.2 Volodymyr Zelenskyy hosting one of his television shows

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Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin (born 7 October 1952) was raised in Leningrad (now St Petersburg) and studied law. He was stationed as a KGB (intelligence or secret service) officer in Dresden, Germany, when the Berlin Wall fell. He later called the break-up of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”.

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SIGNIFICANT INDIVIDUAL

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Russian President Boris Yeltsin appointed him head of a new security service to replace the KGB, and later Prime Minister. In the March 2000 Russian presidential election, Putin won 54% of the vote and found ways over the following decades to remain in power. He used wars to expand Russian Source 7.4.3 Vladimir Putin in 1999, when he influence in former Soviet territories, was acting Prime Minister of Russia and arrests and assassinations to silence opposition politicians and dissenters. In 2022, Putin launched what he described as a “special military operation” to try to force Ukraine to cede territory to Russia.

Zelenskyy’s fame did not come without controversy. Success made him a millionaire, and he sent some of his money offshore to tax-free bank accounts in Cyprus. This was a common technique used by oligarchs and corrupt politicians to avoid paying tax. He also maintained business links with Russia, splitting his time between Kyiv and Moscow; much of his income came from broadcasting his shows on Russian television.

In 2013, another revolution took place in central Kyiv, and Zelenskyy had to decide where he stood.

The Revolution of Dignity

Source 7.4.4 Some of the 200,000 people who gathered in Kyiv’s Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square) in late 2013

In November 2013, Ukraine’s pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych cancelled a planned association agreement with the European Union. Instead, he accepted an offer from Vladimir Putin for discounted natural gas and Russian financial support. Protesters rallied on the streets of Kyiv, with crowds swelling to hundreds of thousands. They adopted the name “Revolution of Dignity”.

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ANALYSIS 7.4 Analysing a source Source 7.4.5 A December 2013 analysis of the protests underway in Ukraine

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Deeper political reasons underpin Yanukovych’s rejection of the EU and reflect the divided nature of Ukraine.

Half the country is western-leaning and Catholic with stronger historical ties to parts of Europe, particularly Poland. The other half is Orthodox, with a long historical association with Russia. Russia continues to be a key player and has provided Ukraine with an alternative vision to that provided by the EU, one of membership of the Eurasian Economic Community. It is not speculation to say that Russia has put enormous pressure on Ukraine not to try to join the EU. Despite its recent claims to be a soft power actor, Russia has played hardball with Ukraine, warning that it had to make a choice between Russia and the EU and that choosing the latter would see the former adopt protectionist measures against Ukraine. …

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Why are the people of Ukraine protesting? Because they see themselves as faced with a stark choice between the promise of the new democratic Europe or a return to the old authoritarian one.

Maxime David, British lecturer in European politics. 2013. “Dreams of a new Europe dashed in Ukraine.” The Conversation, December.

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Identify the differences between the two halves of Ukraine, according to the source.

Describe what the source says about Russia’s influence on Ukraine.

Explain the origin of the source (where, when, who and its context).

Analyse the value and limitations of the source in helping us understand the situation in Ukraine.

Historical concepts: Perspectives Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources

In February 2014, after police killed more than 100 unarmed protesters, the European Union imposed sanctions. The protesters did not back down. After nearly three months of unrest, they prevailed. Yanukovych’s government collapsed and he fled to Russia. This was celebrated in Kyiv but raised concern in some Russianspeaking areas.

Source 7.4.6 Pro-Russian residents of Crimea protest against the removal of Ukraine’s President Yanukovych in February 2014.

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Luhansk UKRAINE

Donetsk

DONBAS

Sea of Azov

RUSSIA

CRIMEA Simferopol

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Black Sea

Soon after, Russia responded. In February 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula on the Black Sea through covert operations designed to resemble a local pro-Russian uprising. A referendum was then organised, which appeared to show majority support for annexation. The vote was rejected as illegal by most of the international community, which imposed sanctions, suspended Russia from the G8 and barred Russian teams from many international sporting competitions, including qualification for the FIFA World Cup, while Russian athletes were later required to compete under neutral status in the Olympic Games.

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Odessa

Russia enters Crimea and the Donbas

150 km

Zelenskyy saw what was happening and decided that, as a Russian speaker, he should use his voice in a serious political way for the first time. He did so in a three-minute speech on a television news program, appealing to both the exiled president and the Russian leader.

Source 7.4.7 The Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in February 2014

Source 7.4.8 Volodymyr Zelenskyy on TSN news, 1 March 2014.

Writing focus 7.4 Transitional phrases

You are no longer the president of Ukraine. That is the decision of the people of our country. Believe me: in the west, in the east, and in my beloved Kryvyi Rih, everyone is convinced that President Yanukovych is now part of our past. Please step aside ...

Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, do not even allow the thought of military conflict to arise. Russia and Ukraine truly are brotherly nations. If necessary, I am prepared to beg you on my knees; but please do not force our people to their knees.

Source 7.4.9 Anti-Russian residents of Kyiv compare Russia’s Putin and Ukrainian president Yanukovych to Adolf Hitler, March 2014.

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Putin was not persuaded by Zelenskyy’s appeal. Although Russian speakers such as Zelenskyy lived freely in Ukraine, Putin claimed that ethnic Russians were oppressed or even facing genocide. To “liberate” them, he supported pro-Russian uprisings in Ukraine’s south-east, known as the Donbas. Ukrainian government forces fought intense battles in Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014 and 2015, which developed into trench warfare involving approximately 75,000 troops.

The Minsk Agreements (2014–15), signed by Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, attempted to end the fighting in eastern Ukraine. They set out security measures including ceasefires, withdrawal of forces and heavy weapons, disarmament of illegal groups and the withdrawal of foreign fighters.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

However, while Ukraine interpreted the agreements as requiring Russia to allow Donetsk and Luhansk to return to Ukrainian control, Russia interpreted them as requiring Ukraine to grant the regions special status. The agreements were never fully implemented.

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SIGNIFICANT IDEA

Source 7.4.10 Pro-Russian rebels in Donetsk

REVIEW 7.4 Online quiz

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Review questions

Access sample responses and results

Identify Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s university qualification.

Describe how Zelenskyy’s chosen career connected him with Russia.

Explain the causes and consequences of the Revolution of Dignity.

Explain what Russia did in Crimea in 2014 and why that was significant.

Discuss Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s attitude to politics from 1997 to 2014. Do you think his stance was justified?

6. In light of the Budapest Memorandum (see previous lesson), discuss the significance of Russia’s actions in Ukraine in 2014.

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7.5 (Acting) President DRIVING QUESTION How did a television show influence Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ambitions and Ukrainian politics?

Servant of the People

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In 2015, Zelenskyy’s Studio Kvartal 95 launched a new television show called Servant of the People. He played the main character, Vasily Goloborodko, a high school history teacher who becomes an accidental President of Ukraine. In the first episode, a student surreptitiously films the teacher while he delivers a tirade about politics and corruption in Ukraine. The student then posts the clip on YouTube and it goes viral. In the election held soon after, so many voters write his name on their ballots that he is elected president.

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Servant of the People is funny, but makes a serious point. Zelenskyy’s fictional president is disarmingly honest, refuses to accept perks and tries to fix the country’s problems. He starts with no ideology other than a determination to end corruption, and makes his ministers ride to work on bicycles rather than in luxury cars. The series appealed to Ukrainian viewers who were disillusioned with politics.

During the filming of the series, the cast and crew began discussing the idea of the star of the show running for the presidency in real life. Zelenskyy was already one of the most well-liked people in the country, and fans kept telling him that they wished they could vote for him.

Source 7.5.1 Zelenskyy plays the character of an accidental president in his television show, Servant of the People.

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The 2019 election

Zelenskyy announced that he would run for president three months before the election. Both of his main opponents were oligarchs connected to mainstream political organisations. The incumbent president, Petro Poroshenko, was a billionaire confectionery maker. Yulia Tymoshenko, who had been prominent during the Orange Revolution, was dismissed by Zelenskyy as an energy-sector oligarch.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Source 7.5.2 Volodymyr Zelenskyy, quoted in the Wall Street Journal, 2019

Writing focus 7.5 Noun phrases (drafting)

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Like the teacher-president with no political background, Zelenskyy saw Ukrainian politics as so corrupt that no one from the old system could be trusted. He, like his fictional character, was also a Russian speaker who took lessons to master the Ukrainian language. Before he made up his mind, his team registered the name “Servant of the People” as a political party, and in 2018, opinion polls suggested that the actor had more support than the major candidates.

Should I be president? Well, let’s see, I have legal education and that’s a plus.

I have no political experience, and that is a huge plus.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 2019. Interview in the Wall Street Journal, March.

The media found Zelenskyy’s campaign fascinating. Was it just a joke by the famous comedian? Some described him as an “anti-system” candidate who promised to clean up Ukrainian politics.

He used his popularity on social media (4.2 million followers on Instagram by 2019, which later rose to over 16 million) to share his message. The line between reality and fiction was blurred: Zelenskyy said that people wanted a president like the man he played on television, his party was named after the show, and he kept filming the final episodes until just weeks before the vote.

There was also criticism of Zelenskyy’s campaign. He offered limited details about policies and declined to Source 7.5.3 Zelenskyy continues to perform his comic role as a fictional president while running his actual presidential campaign, March 2019 participate in debates with other candidates. There seemed to be a risk that he had no real program beyond populism. Some commentators dismissed him populism a political approach that claims to as nothing more than a showman. Despite his anti-corruption stance, Zelenskyy’s represent the interests of campaign was funded by the billionaire television station owner Ihor Kolomoisky, ordinary people against who faced fraud allegations and was living overseas at the time. perceived elites, including governments

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President Poroshenko said that Zelenskyy would be the oligarch’s puppet (in fact, in 2023, Zelenskyy had Kolomoisky prosecuted).

Source 7.5.4 Ukrainian left-wing sociologist Vlod Ishchenko in Towards the Abyss: Ukraine from Maidan to War

His personal views, expressed in a handful of interviews, are not a coherent ideology but just the libertarian dispositions of a successful showbiz figure who has not spent much time seriously thinking about political issues.

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Vladyslav Ishchenko. 2024. Towards the Abyss: Ukraine from Maidan to War. London: Verso, 41.

In the first round of voting, the veteran politician Tymoshenko was eliminated. In the second round, in April 2019, Zelenskyy won 73.2% of the vote. Reporters called it a “landslide” win.

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Source 7.5.5 Zelenskyy is announced winner of the presidential election, 21 April 2019.

SIGNIFICANT INDIVIDUAL

Olena Volodymyrivna Zelenska (born 6 February 1978) grew up in Kryvyi Rih and met her future husband Volodymyr Zelenskyy at school. She earned a university degree in urban and construction management and worked as a scriptwriter with Kvartal 95.

They married in 2003 and have two children.

Before the invasion, she used her profile as First Lady of Ukraine to promote health, Source 7.5.6 Olena Zelenska at the voting booth education and equal opportunity initiatives. with her husband During wartime, her focus shifted to raising awareness of the suffering of Ukrainian families and children. She has won several human rights awards and is regularly featured in lists of the most influential women in the world.

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RESEARCH 7.1 Analysing party ideology Source 7.5.7 Extract from Servant of the People party ideology

Our ideology is Ukrainian centrism.

We are not “right” and not “left”. Not nationalists or separatists.

Servant of the People. 2026. “Party ideology.” Servant of the People website.

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We deny political extremes and radical ideologies. They carry into society discord and split. We are a party that creates and builds.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Find the “About Us” (Ideology) section of the Servant of the People party website at https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11787. Use it to respond to the following questions; you may need to use the translate function.

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4.

Identify what the Servant of the People party says it stands against, according to its ideology.

Describe what the Servant of the People party says it stands for, using examples.

Explain the link between the party ideology and Zelenskyy’s role in the television show of the same name.

Discuss how effective you think the ideology seems to be as a guide for elected members of the party in their work.

Historical concepts: Perspectives Historical skills: Historical investigation and research, Analysis and use of sources

First acts as president

Volodymyr Zelenskyy took office with a clear mandate to change business-as-usual in Kyiv. In May 2019, he was sworn in as president and delivered his inaugural address to the Verkhovna Rada. The seats in front of him were still occupied by members of the old political parties, who gave him a cold reception.

Source 7.5.8 Volodymyr Zelenskyy, inaugural address, 20 May 2019

My election proves that our citizens are tired of the experienced, pompous system politicians who over the 28 years, have created a country of opportunities – the opportunities to bribe, steal and pluck the resources.

We will build the country of other opportunities – the one where all are equal before the law and where all the rules are honest and transparent, the same for everyone. And for that, we need people in power who will serve the people. This is why I really do not want my pictures in your offices, for the President is not an icon, an idol or a portrait. Hang your kids’ photos instead, and look at them each time you are making a decision.

All my life I tried to do all I could so that Ukrainians laughed. That was my mission. Now I will do all I can so that Ukrainians at least do not cry anymore.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine. 2019. “Inaugural address,” 20 May. President of Ukraine official website.

At the end of his speech, President Zelenskyy declared that the Verkhovna Rada was dissolved and that fresh elections would be held. In July 2019, Servant of the People candidates won 254 of the 450 seats, becoming the first political party to hold a majority since Ukraine became independent. Zelenskyy also began replacing numerous senior officials who were closely connected with previous governments.

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Source 7.5.9 Zelenskyy meets French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, June 2019.

As president, Zelenskyy made a priority of shoring up international support for Ukraine, because Russia remained in control of Crimea and the Donbas, and Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric continued to be threatening. However, in July 2019, during a phone call, US President Donald Trump told him that he had frozen nearly US$400 million of military aid promised to Ukraine until Zelenskyy agreed to task Ukrainian investigators with finding compromising information about the family of Joe Biden, Trump’s rival. The US House of Representatives decided that this was an illegal use of Trump’s presidential powers. For Zelenskyy, this was the first sign that Ukraine might not always be able to count on the United States. He made a point of establishing contacts with key European Union leaders.

Zelenskyy used his first appearance at the United Nations in September 2019 to make the case to the international community that they had a stake in his country’s future: “None of you can feel safe when there is a war in Ukraine”. He called on UN member states to uphold the principles of their Charter and stop Russia’s expansion.

In December 2019, Zelenskyy met Putin for the first time, under the “Normandy Format”, a four-way diplomatic framework involving France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine. The meeting failed. Later, in a sign of Ukraine’s intention to lean more towards Western Europe, Ukraine joined the Enhanced Opportunity Partner Interoperability Program of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) to access NATO’s help in upgrading Ukraine’s weapons control systems.

In 2020, Zelenskyy encouraged projects to improve Ukraine’s infrastructure through public–private partnerships, but the COVID-19 pandemic interrupted plans.

Ukraine’s health system was stretched, although the government response was largely seen as effective. In 2021, the government authorised multiple vaccines available on the international market for domestic use, but banned any made in Russia.

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Source 7.5.10 The Normandy Format meeting of December 2019. Pictured from left to right are Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

In 2021, Zelenskyy took steps to deliver on his anti-corruption promises, with an anti-oligarchic law. The law established a register of anyone with a fortune more than 1 million times the living wage, who was active in Ukrainian politics and had media influence. It made it illegal for anyone on the register to sponsor political parties or purchase any more public assets. This helped improve Ukraine’s ranking on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, but it remained in the bottom half: 105th of 180 countries.

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At home, Zelenskyy’s anticorruption laws did not make him popular. Some commentators said that they looked like a power grab. Two years into his job, the president’s approval rating fell to 23%. Abroad, Zelenskyy’s policies infuriated Vladimir Putin, who began to build up Russian troops near Ukraine’s border.

Source 7.5.11 Zelenskyy inspects a highway between Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih that was upgraded under his public–private partnership initiative, 2020.

REVIEW 7.5 Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Describe the character Zelenskyy played on Servant of the People.

2. Explain why Zelenskyy’s 2019 election opponents were associated with traditional Ukrainian politics.

3. Explain criticisms made of Zelenskyy as a candidate.

4. Explain Zelenskyy’s international and domestic priorities after he took power.

5. Discuss why Zelenskyy’s path to the presidency attracted so much interest around the world. You may wish to refer to other leaders who had similar careers in your discussion.

6. Research the life of the oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk. Whose side did he take and what happened to him?

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7.6 The Russian invasion DRIVING QUESTION •

Why did Russia invade Ukraine, and what was the response?

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The start of the invasion

By September 2021, hundreds of thousands of residents of the disputed Donbas had been given Russian passports. Russian state media had so consistently claimed that Zelenskyy’s government was controlled by Nazis (despite Zelenskyy coming from a Jewish family whose ancestors were persecuted by the Nazis) that, in one survey, 70% of Russians said they believed it, and that Ukraine was a threat to Russia.

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Source 7.6.1 Ukrainian teenagers learn how to fire weapons ahead of the predicted invasion by Russia, February 2022.

SIGNIFICANT IDEA

Ukraine as an “anti-Russia”

“On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” (July 2021) is an essay attributed to Vladimir Putin. Some analysts believe it was drafted with input from advisers. The essay argues that Russians and Ukrainians have always been one people, that Ukraine has no genuine existence separate from Russia and that the modern state of Ukraine has been Source 7.6.2 Vladimir Putin explains his essay that describes Ukraine as an turned into a barrier between Europe and “anti-Russia”.

Russia by the West, making it an “anti-Russia”.

Historians and analysts regard the essay as a distortion of history, and as an indication that Putin’s goal was to restore Russian power over Ukraine. The essay effectively signalled that Russia’s policy was to destroy independent Ukraine.

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Satellite images were revealing a huge military build-up on the Russian side of Ukraine’s eastern border. In February 2022, at the annual Munich Security Conference, Volodymyr Zelenskyy told European leaders that they had been fools to try to appease Putin.

Source 7.6.3 Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speech at Munich Security Conference, 19 February 2022

Speech by the President of Ukraine at the 58th Munich Security Conference, from the Presidential Office of Ukraine.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

On 21 February 2022, Putin recognised Donetsk and Luhansk as “independent people’s republics”, which showed that the Minsk Agreements had failed. He and his ministers said that Ukraine was being led by far-right nationalists and “neoNazis”. Russia, Putin said, was going to “demilitarise” and “denazify” Ukraine, just as the Soviet Union had defeated the Nazis in the Second World War. Pro-Russian social media accounts on Twitter (X) and Telegram echoed his claims.

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Ukraine wants peace. Europe wants peace. The world says it doesn’t want to fight, and Russia says it doesn’t want to attack. Someone is lying.

Zelenskyy posted to social media – in Ukrainian and Russian – that he had tried to phone Putin to prevent the outbreak of a war, but received no response. He warned Russians, “When you attack us you will see our faces – not our backs, but our faces”.

Source 7.6.4 Ukrainian service members dig anti-aircraft bunkers in Svitlodarsk, near the Donbas border, February 2022.

War (a “special military operation”)

In the early hours of 24 February 2022, Russia began a full-scale invasion. Missiles and airstrikes targeted airfields and military facilities around Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa, while 200,000 ground troops were mobilised and made incursions into Ukrainian territory. The war – which Putin called a “special military operation”, believing Ukraine would fall within a week – had begun.

Source 7.6.5 Firefighters attending an apartment building after it was struck

by Russian rockets in Kyiv, 25 February 2022

The way Zelenskyy responded in the first days of the invasion earned him widespread praise. He immediately declared a full military mobilisation, forbade eligible men (aged 18–60) from leaving the country and launched cases against Russia in international courts.

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Source 7.6.6 Address by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 24 February 2022

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Writing focus 7.6 Transitional phrases

When the United States offered to evacuate him and his family to safety, Zelenskyy reportedly said, “I need ammunition, not a ride”. Whether or not he said that, he was clearly determined not to become a president in exile in a foreign city, far from the front line in a business suit while his people stayed home to fight. Instead, he began appearing in public in military green T-shirts, and took every opportunity in television interviews and social media posts to show that he stood with his people.

It is the sound of a new Iron Curtain lowering and closing Russia away from the civilized world.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 2022. “Address by the President of Ukraine.” President of Ukraine website, 24 February.

After Russian media falsely reported that Zelenskyy had fled the capital, on 26 February Zelenskyy filmed himself on his smartphone in central Kyiv to prove that he had not, and posted the clip on social media. He said, “ ”, which means “the President is here”. He continued, in the reassuring and encouraging style that he would maintain throughout the war: “We are all here protecting our independence and our country, and it will stay like that. Glory to the heroes, glory to Ukraine”.

American historian Timothy Snyder says that this moment will be remembered because Ukraine’s leader was “speaking truth to power”.

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Source 7.6.7 Zelenskyy responds to Russian disinformation that he fled Kyiv on Twitter (X), 26 February 2022.

The scale of the Russian attack appeared to be overwhelming. A column of Russian tanks, troop carriers and support vehicles was moving from Belarus south towards Kyiv, at one point forming a line 64 kilometres long. The Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti accidentally posted a victory announcement on its website on the third day (the report had been prepared in advance and was quickly deleted). In reality, there was no quick victory. By 7 March, the giant convoy had been stalled on the highway for three days due to guerrilla attacks, mechanical issues and the work of Ukrainian hackers, who scrambled the Russian communications and control systems.

The Russians were stuck, but the war would stretch on.

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ANALYSIS 7.5 Summarising Summarise the outbreak of the Russo–Ukrainian War by completing the following sentences.

In July 2021, Vladimir Putin … [did what] … because … [why he did it] … which meant [why it mattered].

On 21 February 2022, Vladimir Putin … [did what] … because … [why he did it] … which meant [why it mattered].

On 24 February 2022, Russia … [did what] … because … [why they did it] … which meant [why it mattered].

On 26 February 2022, Volodymyr Zelenskyy … [did what] … because … [why he did it] … which meant [why it mattered].

By 7 March 2022, … [what happened] … because … [why it happened] … which showed [why it mattered].

Historical concepts: Causation Historical skills: Explanation and communication

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Putin’s goals

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Journalists and historians found it difficult to analyse Vladimir Putin’s goals for his “special military operation” in Ukraine. His claim that Russia needed to “denazify” the country and save Russian speakers who lived there was not taken seriously outside Russia. Perhaps Putin was using the war to strengthen his own position as leader by giving the Russian people a cause to Source 7.6.8 Residential buildings damaged by Russian missile fire in June 2023 in Zelenskyy’s home city of Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine unite around. Western nations imposed sanctions on Russia.

Opinion polls suggested that Putin’s approval rating was high, as he depicted himself as standing up to the West. Nonetheless, some Russian voices were extremely critical.

Source 7.6.9 Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar, open letter to Putin (signed by several thousand Russians), February 2022

The war launched by Russia against Ukraine is shameful.

It is our shame, but, unfortunately, our children, as well as generations of still infant and unborn Russians, will also have to bear responsibility for it. We do not want our children to live in an aggressor country, to be ashamed that their army attacked a neighbouring independent state. We call upon all citizens of Russia to say “no” to this war.

We do not believe that an independent Ukraine poses a threat to Russia or any other state. We do not believe in Vladimir Putin’s statements that the Ukrainian people are ruled by “Nazis” and must be “liberated”.

We demand an end to this war.

Mikhail Zygar. 2023. War and Punishment: Putin, Zelensky, and the Path to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine. New York: Scribner, 3–4.

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Russia’s strategy varied, including attacks on military installations, energy utilities and residential housing. In December 2022, Putin admitted for the first time that the operation in Ukraine could become a “long-term” process. In March 2023, Putin signed a deal with Alexander Lukashenko, the disputed president of neighbouring Belarus, to station tactical nuclear weapons on its territory: the first such deployment since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Source 7.6.10 Rescue crews carry out emergency repairs to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant’s “New Safe Confinement” cover, which was damaged by a Russian drone attack.

Source 7.6.11 Russian exile (formerly Russia’s richest man) Mikhail Khodorkovsky, February 2022

Even if he [Putin] achieves his aim, Russia will be no better off than before: it will have taken on responsibility for more territory, which it doesn’t need, and more people, most of whom will be unhappy and resentful, in political, economic and social terms.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky. 2022. The Russian Conundrum: How the West Fell for Putin’s Power Gambit – and How to Fix It. New York: St Martin’s, 249.

REVIEW 7.6

Go online to assign and download questions, view results and more!

Online quiz

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6.

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

Describe Vladimir Putin’s view of the history of Ukraine and Russia.

Explain what Putin and his ministers accused Ukraine’s leadership of.

Explain Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s image and social media use after the invasion began.

Explain the first signs that the Russian operation was not going according to plan.

Discuss the significance of the statements by Mikhail Zygar and Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Research the interview that Vladimir Putin gave to an American journalist in February 2024.

Whom did he allow to interview him, what did that show, and what were his main points?

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7.7 Defending Ukraine’s existence DRIVING QUESTION What sort of wartime leader did Volodymyr Zelenskyy become?

When Russia invaded Ukraine, the whole country was put on a war footing. Its leader had to change too. Zelenskyy suddenly became one of the most recognisable people in the world.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Zelenskyy’s courage

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Zelenskyy decided that the best image for him to project was of a supportive and reassuring figure moving among his people. He increased his posts on social media to praise heroic efforts, report on key events and plead for Source 7.7.1 Workers at a Kryvyi Rih factory, which had been making international assistance. He made candid selfiewomen’s fashions, sew army uniforms instead, May 2022. style clips, not professionally curated videos.

Zelenskyy gained millions of followers on Twitter (X) and Instagram. Typically, his day ended with a short social media address to lift people’s spirits, often starting with, “I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!” ( , !)

Although Zelenskyy was using twenty-first-century technology, journalists compared him with Winston Churchill, whose radio addresses inspired British people during the bombings by Nazi Germany in the Second World War. Zelenskyy’s approval ratings rose as high as 90%.

Watch the video in Source 7.7.3 to learn how Zelenskyy changed his image and used social media.

Source 7.7.3 Video on Zelenskyy’s image

Writing focus 7.7 Source analysis Source 7.7.2 Kindergarten classes move into the school’s basement to be safe from bombing in Kryvyi Rih, (perspective) Digital-only chapters • Cambridge University Press & Assessment © Le Cornu, et al 2026 • 978-1-009-83909-9 • (03) 8671 1400 September 2023.

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ANALYSIS 7.6 Analysing interpretations

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Read the following sources carefully, then answer the questions that follow.

Source 7.7.4 A March 2022 Instagram post showing Zelenskyy visiting wounded soldiers, while taunting Putin for sheltering in a bunker

Source 7.7.5 An official photograph of Putin meeting with his national security council, February 2022

Source 7.7.6 A Russian journalist compares Putin and Zelenskyy.

Putin looks like a grotesque dictator. He hides in his bunker, receiving visitors, ministers, and generals, at a long table: they at one end, he at the other. All footage of him is carefully stage-managed. While Zelensky, unshaven, in a khaki T-shirt, is constantly on the street, among the people. He records his selfie-style appeals on a mobile phone. … He soon becomes the most popular politician in the world.

Mikhail Zygar. 2023. War and Punishment: Putin, Zelensky, and the Path to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine. New York: Scribner, 369.

Source 7.7.7 The former British Ambassador to Russia analyses the start of the war.

Putin had gambled on his belief that he could roll the Ukrainians over in a blitzkrieg. Instead the Ukrainians fought back defiantly under their remarkable president, Volodymyr Zelensky, a former comic actor whose Jewish background made nonsense of Putin’s accusations of neo-Nazism. His inspired and courageous leadership turned him into an international hero.

Rodric Braithwaite. 2022. Russia: Myths and Realities. London: Pegasus Books, 247.

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Source 7.7.8 Jessica Genauer on Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speeches

Thanks to modern technology, he has never lost direct, real-time access to decision-makers and ordinary people … His speeches have won hearts and minds across the world. ...

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Zelensky speaks directly to camera with a focused presence and open intensity, sometimes showing a small smile, placing one hand on his heart or raising a fist in the air. The viewer feels warm emotion behind his words.

Since the invasion, he has delivered his speeches in casual military-style clothes – a T-shirt, cargo pants, and old sneakers, emphasising that he is an ordinary man speaking for his country in extraordinary times.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

These factors make his addresses accessible and powerfully human, in stark contrast to the seemingly inhuman brutality of war.

Jessica Genauer. 2022. “A struggle between normality and madness: why Volodymyr Zelensky’s speeches have captured the world’s attention”, The Conversation, 2 November.

1.

2.

3.

4.

Identify the difference between the public images of Zelenskyy and Putin after the war started.

Describe what the sources say about the effects of Zelenskyy’s public image.

Explain the significance of social media to Zelenskyy’s leadership, with reference to the sources.

Discuss what the sources suggest about Zelenskyy and leadership.

Historical concepts: Perspectives Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources

Ukraine’s allies

Zelenskyy understood that Ukraine did not have the resources to counter Russia alone.

Within three months of the start of the invasion, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Romania and Britain visited Kyiv.

The European Union approved Ukraine’s application to become a candidate country for the organisation. Sanctions were intensified to freeze the access of the Russian state and Russian oligarchs to funds outside Russia, and to restrict trade with Russia in the finance, technology, energy and defence sectors.

Ukraine needed weapons and weapons Source 7.7.9 British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visits Kyiv to express systems – rocket and missile launchers, his support for Ukraine, August 2022. helicopters, drones and tanks – and financial support. The key partners were the United States and the European Union, who were convinced both that they had a moral duty to defend a fellow democracy and that they had a strategic interest in stopping Russia’s expansion towards Western Europe.

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Source 7.7.10 On Ukraine’s public debt

Despite skillful policymaking by the authorities to maintain overall economic and financial stability, public debt has soared, and the fiscal deficit ballooned to accommodate additional defense and security spending.

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Amid War, Ukraine Is Maintaining Macroeconomic Stability and Embarking on Reforms, Ukraine team, IMF European Department 2023.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Zelensky’s first overseas trip after the invasion was to Ukraine’s major donor, the United States, in December 2022.

US President Joe Biden assured him that America stood with Ukraine, and Zelenskyy received standing ovations from the US Congress when he said that Ukraine would “never surrender”.

Biden then visited Kyiv the following February.

Source 7.7.11 The top 10 donors to Ukraine, 2022–24, in US$ billions

Source 7.7.12 Australia sent over 100 “Bushmaster” armoured vehicles to Ukraine, after Zelenskyy specifically requested them.

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D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

In February 2025, when Zelenskyy visited the White House, the meeting collapsed. Trump and his Vice President, J. D. Vance, appeared to support Russia’s claim that the war was Ukraine’s fault, and Vance admonished Zelenskyy for not saying “thank you” for America’s assistance. Trump also referred to Zelenskyy as a dictator (Ukrainian elections scheduled for May 2024 were postponed due to wartime conditions).

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However, Ukraine also encountered obstacles. Allies were reluctant to give Kyiv weapons that could be used to attack targets inside Russia (such as some long-range strike capabilities). Moreover, parts of the US Republican Party wanted to limit America’s involvement in foreign wars, which came to a head after Donald Trump returned as president on an “America First” platform.

While relations with the United States did improve, Trump continued to give mixed signals. He said he found it easier to deal with Putin, without Zelenskyy’s involvement. In November 2025, the United States and Russia released a proposed 28-point peace plan. Among other provisions, it would freeze some borders along the existing lines of conflict and require Ukraine to cede Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk to Russia – including areas that, at the time, Ukraine still controlled.

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Source 7.7.13 Zelenskyy’s disastrous White House meeting in Washington, DC, 28 February 2025

Source 7.7.14 Street art in Krakow, Poland, showing Trump and Putin deciding Ukraine’s future between themselves

REVIEW 7.7 Online quiz

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2.

3.

4.

5.

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

Identify which other leader Zelenskyy has been compared to, and why.

Explain how Zelenskyy projected his image and used social media after the invasion.

Explain why Zelenskyy’s public image was significant to Ukraine’s war effort.

Explain Ukraine’s major sources of financial aid and military equipment.

Research Zelenskyy’s use of social media after 2022. What do his posts reveal about his approach to leadership?

6. Discuss the significance of Zelenskyy’s relationship with the White House.

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7.8 International implications DRIVING QUESTION •

What might be the international implications of Zelenskyy’s wartime leadership?

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The future of the United Nations

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

The Russo–Ukrainian War posed major challenges to the United Nations system, particularly because the aggressor, Russia, is a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly urged UN member states to take stronger action to punish Russia, and to reform the United Nations itself.

Source 7.8.1 Families leave Ukraine by train. By the fourth year of the war, 5.9 million Ukrainians were registered as refugees.

SIGNIFICANT IDEA

Inequality in the United Nations

The UN Charter was designed to protect members’ territorial sovereignty. Article 2(3) requires members to settle international disputes by peaceful means. Article 2(4) prohibits threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or independence of another nation.

Article 51 gives member states the right of self-defence if they are attacked, until the Security Council has taken measures to respond. There are 193 UN members and 15 form the Security Council. However, Article 27(3) of the UN Charter requires all five of the permanent members of the Security Council to vote “yes” for a Security Council Resolution to pass.

Therefore, it takes only one Permanent Five member (United States, Russia, Britain, France or China) to stop the Security Council from taking an action.

The UN Charter was designed to protect members’ territorial sovereignty. Article 2(3) requires members to settle international disputes by peaceful means. Article 2(4) prohibits the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of another state. Article 51 recognises the right of self-defence if a member state is attacked, until the Security Council has taken measures to respond.

Russia’s invasion was an act of aggression by a permanent member of the Security Council. As a result, Russia could use its veto to prevent the Council from taking action to assist Ukraine. Russia used its veto to block Security Council decisions relating to the war in February 2022, September 2022 and February 2025. Zelenskyy highlighted this structural weakness and appealed to UN member states outside the Security Council to act.

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In the first year of the war, the General Assembly held emergency sessions and passed six resolutions. A General Assembly resolution requires a simple majority to pass. The resolutions condemning Russia were supported by Ukraine’s allies and most member states, and opposed by Russia and a small number of pro-Russian states.

Effect

Yes

No

Abstain

ES-11/1, March 2022

Demanded Russia stop its offensive and withdraw troops

141

5

35

ES-11/2, March 2022

Focused on the humanitarian situation; blamed Russia for causing the crisis

140

5

38

ES-11/3, April 2022

Suspended Russia from the UN Human Rights Council

93

24

58

ES-11/4, October 2022

Condemned Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian regions

143

5

35

ES-11/5, November 2022

Called for Russia to pay war reparations to Ukraine as compensation

94

14

73

ES-11/6, February 2023

Called for Russia to withdraw, and a just and lasting peace in Ukraine

141

7

32

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Resolution

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Table 7.8.1 Voting records on UN General Assembly resolutions in the first year of the war

General Assembly resolutions are powerful statements of international opinion, but they are not legally binding and do not compel specific action. In September 2023, Zelenskyy expressed frustration that the United Nations had responded largely with rhetoric rather than concrete solutions. He argued that humanity could no longer rely on the United Nations alone to protect people and their borders.

Source 7.8.2 Zelenskyy addressing the UN General Assembly in September 2023

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In February 2025, the United States, under a new Trump administration, secured enough support to pass the Security Council’s first resolution relating to the war.

However, it was framed in neutral terms. It called for an end to the conflict without assigning responsibility.

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For the first time, the United States also voted against several of its European and other allies, including Australia, in General Assembly votes relating to Ukraine. It voted “no” to a resolution condemning Russia for humanitarian crises and abstained on a resolution it had originally drafted after amendments explicitly stated that Russia had caused the war.

Table 7.8.2 Voting records on UN General Assembly resolutions after three years of the war Resolution

Effect

Yes

No

ES-11/7, February 2025

Called for de-escalation, including withdrawal of North Korean troops, and condemned humanitarian crises

93

18

Supported a “path to peace”

93

Abstain 65

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ES-11/8, February 2025

8

73

In March 2025, France and Britain launched a “Coalition of the Willing” to provide security guarantees for Ukraine in response to uncertainty about ongoing US support.

Within months, 27 European nations, NATO and five international partners, including Australia, joined the coalition.

ANALYSIS 7.7

Analysing significance

Writing focus 7.8 Transitional phrases

Source 7.8.3 Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speech to UN General Assembly, 24 September 2025

You know perfectly well – international law doesn’t work fully unless you have powerful friends who are truly willing to stand up for it. And even that doesn’t work without weapons. It’s terrible, but without it, things would be even worse. There are no security guarantees except friends and weapons.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine. 2025. “Speech during the General Debate of the UN General Assembly in New York.” President of Ukraine official website.

Watch or read the transcript of Zelenskyy’s 2025 United Nations speech, at https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11788.

1. Identify what makes war different from 10 years ago, according to Zelenskyy.

2. Describe what Zelenskyy says the world should know about Russia’s plans.

3. Explain the two things required for security guarantees and international law, according to Zelenskyy. What do you think he means?

4. Compare and contrast the format, tone and content of Zelenskyy’s 2025 speech with his 2022 address to the United Nations, which you viewed at the start of this chapter.

Discuss what this shows.

Historical concepts: Perspectives Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources

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Twenty-first-century leadership

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Zelenskyy’s path to politics and his leadership style have been widely regarded as unusual. Some commentators argue that he has demonstrated classical virtues – including humanity, temperance, justice, courage, transcendence, wisdom and prudence – and modelled a new type of twenty-first-century leadership.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Over time, however, some observers have questioned his wartime measures, which centralised power in the presidency and left other social and political issues unresolved. When tensions with the United States intensified, scrutiny of Zelenskyy’s leadership increased.

Nonetheless, many analysts have contrasted Zelenskyy’s approach with that of other populist leaders of the 2020s, some of whom Source 7.8.4 Zelenskyy visits a forward command post in Kupyansk, were criticised for deepening social divisions, eastern Ukraine, December 2025. attacking opponents and challenging democratic norms. Suggested points of contrast include Vladimir Putin (Russia), Donald Trump (US), Jarosław Kaczyński (Poland), Viktor Orbán (Hungary), Aleksandr Lukashenko (Belarus), Giorgia Meloni (Italy), Javier Milei (Argentina) and Narendra Modi (India).

Source 7.8.5 Mordechai Gordon on Zelenskyy’s political courage

Watching Zelenskyy left me thinking about political courage … As a president, Zelenskyy stood up for the right of his country to defend itself in the face of Russia’s assault … He acted not only as an individual, or a politician, but as a Ukrainian trying to defend his country from an invader − a cause that has inspired protests around the globe.

Mordechai Gordon. 2025. “The ‘courage to be’ in uncertain times − how one 20th-century philosopher defined bravery”, The Conversation, 8 April.

REVIEW 7.8 Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Identify a barrier to the United Nations taking strong action to intervene in the Russo– Ukrainian War. 2. Explain how the UN General Assembly responded to the war and the limitations of its responses.

3. Explain the conclusion Zelenskyy reached by 2025 about international security.

4. Explain why Zelenskyy’s leadership came under heavier scrutiny after the first phase of the war.

5. Discuss why Zelenskyy may be regarded as a model of a different kind of leader by comparing his attributes with at least one other twenty-first-century leader.

6. Discuss how you think Zelenskyy will be remembered in history books. You may wish to reflect on his path to leadership, his wartime role and his communication style.

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7.9 Chapter review Revise and consolidate your learning with these online tools: Download or answer questions online View suggested responses Writing focus worksheets.

Teachers can access these additional downloadable resources and Learning Management System features: • • • •

Individual student reports Assign tasks and track results Exam Generator: create custom practice exams Writing focus workbook.

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Chapter summary • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s early years were spent in a Russian-speaking Jewish family in Soviet-era Ukraine.

The Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 after years of economic strain, the war in Afghanistan, the Chernobyl disaster and growing independence movements.

After Ukraine became independent in 1991, it struggled to build a stable economy and political system separate from Moscow.

In 2004–05, the Orange Revolution overturned a disputed election result and brought pro-European politicians to power in Ukraine.

After university, Zelenskyy pursued a career in comedy, performing largely in Russian and appearing frequently on Russian television.

In 2013–14, the Revolution of Dignity protested pro-Russian policies and corruption; Russia annexed Crimea and fighting began in the Donbas.

Zelenskyy spoke publicly against Russian intervention in 2014.

From 2015 to 2019, Zelenskyy starred as an accidental president in the television series Servant of the People.

In 2019, supported by the political party Servant of the People, Zelenskyy won the presidency with 73.2% of the vote.

As president, he prioritised anti-corruption reforms and strengthening international partnerships.

On 24 February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Zelenskyy’s decision to remain in Kyiv, and his use of social media, made him a globally recognised wartime leader.

Ukraine has relied heavily on financial and military support from the United States, the European Union and other allies.

The war has exposed limitations within the United Nations system, particularly the veto power of permanent Security Council members.

By 2025, tensions with the United States increased under President Trump, while European nations sought to strengthen their support.

Zelenskyy has been widely viewed as representing a distinctive model of leadership for the twenty-first century.

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How to answer an exam question Example question (4 marks) Account for Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s popularity in 2019.

The key verb in this question is account for, which means you need to state reasons for, or report on, Zelenskyy’s popularity.

Marking criteria Criteria Explains Zelenskyy’s popularity in 2019 and the reasons for it Communicates logically using historical terms and concepts Provides information about Zelenskyy’s popularity in 2019 Communicates using some appropriate historical terms and concepts Provides some information about Zelenskyy’s popularity Communicates using some appropriate historical terms and/or concepts Provides some relevant information

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Marks

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Note that the question is about Zelenskyy’s popularity in 2019, so your answer should focus on this as much as possible.

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Sample response

In 2019, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected President of Ukraine, with an overwhelming 73.2% of the vote, which indicated very high levels of popularity. One reason for his popularity was that he had already been one of Ukraine’s most successful comedians and actors for over a decade. In his most recent television show, he played an accidental president who brought honesty to Ukrainian politics. Zelenskyy was regarded as charismatic and likeable.

Another reason was that, in his own words, he had “no political experience”, which meant that he was the only candidate not connected to the old ways of doing politics in Ukraine.

His Servant of the People party offered a new approach. Ukrainians were eager to move away from an era of politics dominated by oligarchs and corruption, and they supported Zelenskyy’s promise to end corruption.

Source 7.9.1 Video on answering the exam question

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Modern History Transformed Year 11 Second Edition

Exam-style short-answer questions As NESA reminds us, your answer will be assessed on how well you: • • •

demonstrate historical knowledge and understanding relevant to the question communicate ideas and information logically use historical terms and concepts appropriately.

Question 1 (4 marks) Account for the success of Ukraine’s Servant of the People party in 2019.

Question 2 (4 marks) Explain how Ukraine changed during Zelenskyy’s early years.

Question 3 (7 marks)

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Marking rubrics are available in the Interactive Textbook.

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Explain why the perspectives of Source A and Source B would be useful to a historian studying Zelenskyy’s leadership.

In your answer, integrate evidence from Source A and Source B.

Question 4 (10 marks)

How significant was Zelenskyy’s use of social media during the Russo–Ukrainian War? In your answer, integrate evidence from Source C.

Exam-style extended-response question As NESA reminds us, your answer will be assessed on how well you: • • • •

demonstrate historical knowledge and understanding relevant to the question use relevant evidence and interpretation to support your response communicate ideas and information using historical terms and concepts appropriately present a sustained, logical and cohesive response.

Marking rubrics are available in the Interactive Textbook.

Question 5 (25 marks)

a. Assess the significance of Zelenskyy’s relationships with other leaders and organisations after the Russian invasion.

OR

b. To what extent did Ukraine’s war with Russia change Volodymyr Zelenskyy?

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Source booklet Source A

Zelensky speaks directly to camera with a focused presence and open intensity, sometimes showing a small smile, placing one hand on his heart or raising a fist in the air. The viewer feels warm emotion behind his words.

Jessica Genauer. 2022. “A struggle between normality and madness: why Volodymyr Zelensky’s speeches have captured the world’s attention”, The Conversation, 2 November.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Source B

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Thanks to modern technology, he has never lost direct, real-time access to decision-makers and ordinary people… His speeches have won hearts and minds across the world.

You know perfectly well – international law doesn’t work fully unless you have powerful friends who are truly willing to stand up for it. And even that doesn’t work without weapons. It’s terrible, but without it, things would be even worse.

There are no security guarantees except friends and weapons.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine. 2025. Speech to the UN General Assembly, 24 September.

Source C

X post from Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 29 December 2023

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Chairman Xi Jinping: personality study

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CHAPTER

FOCUS

By using a range of historical sources and contemporary reports, you will investigate the life and the influence of Xi Jinping, State Chairman (president) of the People’s Republic of China.

KEY ISSUES

You will explore: •

The historical context of Xi Jinping’s life, including: – the Chinese Revolution era – the Cultural Revolution – the Reform Era

•

The nature of the features, people, ideas, movements, events and developments selected for study, including: – the development of the Chinese Communist Party – the influence of Mao Zedong on Chinese society – the influence of Deng Xiaoping and other Chinese leaders – Xi Jinping’s experiences as a party chief – Xi’s reforms as paramount leader of China – Xi’s signature policies on trade, international relations and climate – Xi Jinping Thought and its influence on modern China

•

A relevant historical debate or issue, including: – the impacts of the Chinese Communist Party on the development of modern China – the implications of Xi’s nationalism

Enhance your learning with these integrated online resources: Digital downloads

Videos

Students:

Teachers:

• •

• • •

•

Suggested responses Download or answer questions online Writing focus worksheets

Writing focus workbook Exam Generator Planning documents

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Chinese Civil War, won by the Chinese Communist Party

1949–76

Revolution Era under “Chairman Mao” Zedong as leader of China

15 Jun 1953

Xi Jinping is born to Xi Zhongxun and second wife, Qi Xin, in Beijing, China

1959

Xi Zhongxun, becomes a vice-premier

1965–78

Xi Zhongxun, is purged, imprisoned and tortured

1966–76

Cultural Revolution

1969–75

The teenaged Xi is sent to the countryside (Shaanxi Province)

1975–79

Xi studies chemical engineering

1978–89

Reform Era under Deng Xiaoping as leader of China

1978–80

Xi Zhongxun returns to CCP roles in Guangdong

1979–85

Xi is given CCP roles in Beijing as secretary to the defence minister and in Hebei Province

1985–2002

Xi works in Fujian Province, eventually as governor

2002–07

Xi works in Zhejiang Province: acting governor, then party secretary

2008–13

Xi becomes Vice President, People’s Republic of China

2013

Xi is chosen as state chairman (president)

2017

New Era; Xi Jinping Thought is recognised by the CCP as China’s guiding philosophy

2018

Xi’s second term as leader; the CCP abolishes the two-term limit

2020

COVID-19 pandemic spreads from China

2022–23

The CCP unanimously re-elects Xi as leader

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

1946–49

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TIMELINE

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10.1 A victory parade in Beijing DRIVING QUESTION What are the roles of China and its leader in the world of the late 2020s?

An unopposed leader

On the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War, in Tiananmen Square, Beijing, all eyes are on one man. He is a tall 72-year-old, looking stern but confident, standing through the sunroof of his Hongqi limousine. He wears a Zhongshan suit, the style of clothing made popular by the founder of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Mao Zedong, and often called a Mao suit. As he raises his eyes over his trademark four-microphone array, he sees around 50,000 flag-waving people. He knows that about 12,000 troops are ready to march past him, and that world leaders wait behind the scenes to join him. The man is State Chairman (president) Xi Jinping.

Twelve years into his rule as the paramount leader of China, he stands alone. There is no opposition and no apparent competition for his position.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Chinese Communist Party (CCP) the ruling political party of China, founded in 1921, which governs the country according to communist ideology and maintains strict control over the state, military and society

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•

communist a person who supports communism, a system in which property and resources are owned collectively and society is organised around equality rather than private profit

cult of personality the deliberate promotion of an individual as an idealised, heroic or infallible leader through propaganda, media control and public displays of loyalty

The setting itself adds to the symbolism. Tiananmen Square is a place of deep historical significance. It was here that communists assembled in their thousands in 1949 to hear Mao Zedong proclaim the establishment of the People’s Republic of China. In the decades that followed, tens of thousands gathered in the square to show their devotion to “Chairman Mao”, the long-reigning ruler around whom a “cult of personality” developed. In 1989, it was also here that pro-democracy protesters, who had a very different vision for China’s future, were killed by government troops.

Source 10.1.1 Xi Jinping at a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of “Victory Day” in the Second World War (over Japan), Tiananmen Square, Beijing, September 2025.

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Now, more than four decades later, Tiananmen Square is host to one of China’s largest-ever military parades. Nuclear-capable missiles, high-tech drones and long rows of soldiers march in perfect formation. When the soldiers turn their heads, do they look to the giant portrait of Mao, or do they look for Xi Jinping? Is Xi the new Mao?

Source 10.1.2 Soldiers march during the September 2025 parade in Beijing.

The international guests watching alongside Xi add another layer of meaning. As he walks to the observation platform, on one side of him stands Russian President Vladimir Putin and, on the other, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Both men had become pariahs in much of the world due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons and their ruthless methods of maintaining power. In Beijing, however, they were given prime position. Was Xi now effectively leader for life in China? And if so, how long might that last?

pariah a person who is despised or rejected by society

A hot microphone reportedly picked up Putin and Xi discussing whether people might live forever if they had enough organ transplants. In total, around 25 heads of state were present, few of whom had gained power through open elections. Some media outlets referred to the gathering as the “axis of upheaval”. Was this event truly about celebrating victory over Japan in 1945, or was it also a display of Xi’s own political dominance? If so, over what enemy had he been victorious?

To understand the significance of this moment, it is important to consider China’s position in the world by the mid-2020s. The People’s Republic of China had been ruled for nearly eight decades by the CCP. It had the world’s second-largest population, at over 1.4 billion people; the world’s second-largest economy, at around US$19 trillion; and the world’s largest military, with more than 2 million active personnel. Analysts have argued that, in the twenty-first century, China’s decisions are more likely than any other single factor to shape the global economy and international relations. For Xi Jinping, the huge parade was presented as proof that the Chinese people “firmly stand on the right side of history”.

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Source 10.1.3 VIPs arrive at the Great Hall of the People following the September 2025 military parade. A smiling Xi Jinping (centre) is flanked by Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un. (At the rear are former Victorian premier Daniel Andrews and former New Zealand leaders.)

The CCP recognises three eras in modern Chinese history: the Revolution (1940s–1970s), the Reform Era (1970s–2010s) and the so-called New Era of Chinese prosperity and power. Xi Jinping grew up during the Revolution era, rose through the ranks of the CCP during the Reform Era and has led China into its “New” Era. To understand China today, we therefore need to understand the life and times of Chairman Xi.

ANALYSIS 10.1

Interpreting an event 1.

2.

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Writing focus 10.1 Question words

What do you think was the most significant aspect of the September 2025 parade in Beijing?

How does the parade match or challenge your prior knowledge of China or Xi Jinping?

How does this relate to events in the world today?

What do you hope to learn more about to understand Xi Jinping more fully?

Historical concepts: Continuity and change, Perspectives Historical skills: Historical interpretation

REVIEW 10.1

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Online quiz

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Review questions

Access sample responses and results

Identify what the parade in Beijing in September 2025 commemorated.

Describe how Xi Jinping showed his status as a major leader at the parade.

Explain the stage of life and career Xi Jinping had reached by the time of the parade.

Explain what made China a significant nation by the time of the parade.

Explain the significance of Tiananmen Square.

Explain the significance of the so-called axis of upheaval.

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10.2 The rise of Xi Jinping: the China of Xi’s birth DRIVING QUESTION What was Chinese society like during Xi Jinping’s early years, and how did that shape him?

Early life

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Xi Jinping (习近平) was born in Beijing, China, on 15 June 1953, four years after the establishment of the People’s Republic of China. He was the third child of parents who were committed to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which had risen to power through victory in a civil war. His father, Xi Zhongxun, was a prominent party official, and his mother, Qi Xin, worked as an adviser to communist schools. From birth, therefore, Xi’s life and experiences were closely tied to the CCP and its rule.

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This background would later shape Xi’s Source 10.2.1 A painting of Mao Zedong declaring the People's Republic of China after political trajectory. In 2013, Xi became Communist victory in the Civil War, overlooking Tiananmen Square, Beijing, 1949 the fifth paramount leader of China since the revolution, and the first Chinese ruler to have been born after it. In recent years, as the nation’s undisputed leader, Xi has dominated the thinking of the CCP. He has set new directions for China’s development and reshaped China’s role as a global power.

The Revolution era

Source 10.2.2 Mao Zedong describes what a revolution is.

A revolution is not a dinner party, or writing an essay, or painting a picture, or doing embroidery; it cannot be so refined, so leisurely and gentle, so temperate, kind, courteous, restrained and magnanimous. A revolution is an insurrection, an act of violence by which one class overthrows another.

Mao Zedong. 1927. Report on an Investigation of the Peasant Movement in Hunan. Reprinted in Selected Works, vol. I, 28.

Writing focus 10.2 Noun phrases (identify)

To understand the society into which Xi was born, it is necessary to examine the political system created by Mao Zedong. Xi Jinping was born into a nation led by Mao, the Chairman of the Central Committee of the CCP. Mao was the dominant figure in China for the first 23 years of Xi’s life. The communist revolution that Mao had led involved a long and bitter civil war, interrupted only briefly by cooperation between rival Chinese forces during the Second World War against Japanese invaders.

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Modern History Transformed Year 11 Second Edition

Marxism the social, political and economic theory based on the nineteenth-century writings of Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, arguing that the means of production should be owned and controlled collectively

Mao looked to the Soviet Union as a model and applied the theory of Marxism– Leninism to Chinese conditions. Private property was abolished, and private businesses were replaced by collective farming and state-owned factories. This ideology later became known as “Mao Zedong Thought”. Political power was tightly controlled, and loyalty to the party and its leader was expected at all levels of society.

This system was formalised when the CCP adopted the first State Constitution of China in 1954, when Xi Jinping was one year old. The constitution established centralised power, led by a Chairman of the People’s Republic, under laws made by the Congress. In practice, however, all key decisions were made by committees within the CCP.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Leninism the political principles developed

by Vladimir Lenin in the early-twentieth-century Soviet Union, arguing that a disciplined one-party state should lead society in putting Marxism into practice

When the CCP won the civil war, the anti-communist Guomindang, led by Jiang Jieshi, fled to the island of Taiwan in 1949, where they established a separate state.

Mao’s communists consolidated control over the mainland and proclaimed the People’s Republic of China. From this point, the CCP sought to reshape Chinese society, politics and the economy.

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Source 10.2.3 The CCP defines the goals of Chinese communism.

Communists advocate that the means of production – machines and factories, raw materials, land, communication organs, etc., are reclaimed, jointly owned and jointly used by society …

Private property is the root of all special forces in the present society. If there are no people who are able to concentrate their property, there will be no more special classes …

To eradicate the capitalist system, we can only use brute force to overthrow capitalist countries.

Chinese Communist Party. 1920. Manifesto of the Chinese Communist Party.

SIGNIFICANT INDIVIDUAL

Mao Zedong (毛澤東; 1893–1976) was a founder of the CCP and the first paramount leader of communist China, ruling from 1949 to 1976. Mao rose to prominence during the Long March (1934–35), when communist Red Army members crossed vast areas of China on foot. After the Second World War, Mao led the communists to victory in the Civil War and became the nation’s leader. “Chairman Mao” introduced Five-Year Plans, which set national priorities and production targets in an effort to collectivise agriculture and industrialise rapidly. Mao’s leadership relied heavily on propaganda, encouraging the population to idolise him in what became a powerful cult of personality.

Source 10.2.4 Mao Zedong, known as “Chairman Mao”

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ANALYSIS 10.2 Analysing a source

In the year 1949, after more than a century of heroic struggle, the Chinese people, led by the Communist Party of China, finally achieved their great victory in the people’s revolution against imperialism, feudalism and bureaucrat-capitalism; and so brought to an end a long history of oppression and enslavement and founded the People’s Republic of China, a people’s democratic dictatorship. The system of people’s democracy – new democracy – of the People’s Republic of China guarantees that China can in a peaceful way banish exploitation and poverty and build a prosperous and happy socialist society.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

From the founding of the People’s Republic of China to the attainment of a socialist society is a period of transition. During the transition the fundamental task of the state is, step by step, to bring about the socialist industrialization of the country and, step by step, to accomplish the socialist transformation of agriculture, handicrafts and capitalist industry and commerce.

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Source 10.2.5 Part of the preamble to the 1954 State Constitution of China

People’s Republic of China. 1954. Preamble to the State Constitution of China.

1. List the things that the constitution says the Chinese people had brought to an end in 1949. Why are those things mentioned?

2. Describe what the constitution says will be built, and how.

3. Explain the origin of the source (where, when, who, and its context).

4. Analyse the value and limitations of the source in helping us understand the Revolution era.

Historical concepts: Perspectives Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources

Mao’s policies radically reorganised the Chinese economy. As an authoritarian ruler, he used Five-Year Plans to set extremely ambitious targets for agricultural output and industrial production. Mao demanded that all Chinese people work towards these goals so that, within a single generation, China could catch up with, and even overtake, the industrial capitalist nations of the West, which had taken centuries to develop.

It was in this environment that Xi Jinping began his early education. He started school in Beijing at the August 1st School, an elite institution for the children of high-ranking CCP officials, during Mao’s second Five-Year Plan (1958–62). Also known as the Great Leap Forward, this plan aimed to modernise China’s economy rapidly and placed enormous pressure on the nation.

authoritarian of a leader or system that requires strict obedience to a strong central authority, often at the expense of personal freedom

Source 10.2.6 Five-year-old Xi Jinping (left) with his younger brother, Xi Yuanping, and father, Xi Zhongxun, in Beijing, 1958

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The Great Leap Forward

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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During the Great Leap Forward, Chinese farms were taken over and merged into around 26,000 giant “people’s communes”, where people worked and lived collectively. Government propaganda encouraged peasants to see their commune as more important than their own family and to regard each day of labour as another step towards building a new China. They were also taught to love Mao as a wise leader and father figure.

Source 10.2.7 A propaganda poster encouraging the Chinese people to “brave the wind and the waves” to develop their nation during the Great Leap Forward, c. 1958 pig iron a crude form of iron produced by smelting iron ore and containing high levels of impurities, making it unsuitable for most industrial uses without further refining

At the same time, the government pushed for rapid industrialisation. Factories were built with the assistance of Soviet advisers, and, notoriously, people were encouraged to boost steel production through small-scale, hand-built furnaces. Brick furnaces were constructed in courtyards across the country to smelt iron ore, but the resulting pig iron was largely unusable.

Meanwhile, many centrally controlled farms failed. Severe food shortages followed, resulting in one of the worst famines in history. Historians estimate that between 15 and Source 10.2.8 A team of workers labouring in a stone quarry in heavy rain during the Great Leap Forward 55 million people died.

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Chapter 10 Chairman Xi Jinping: personality study

princelings the sons of senior CCP officials, who often rise to high ranks within the party or state enterprises due to their family networks

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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Throughout this period, Xi’s family occupied a privileged but precarious position within the party. Xi’s father was First Secretary General of the State Council, responsible for managing high-level party meetings. Like other senior officials, he was expected to show unwavering loyalty to Mao’s policies, even if he privately doubted whether farms and factories could meet their targets or suspected that managers were submitting false reports to impress the leadership. Because of his father’s high status, historians regard Xi as one of the “princelings” of the CCP.

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Source 10.2.9 One of the “people’s communes” established during the Great Leap Forward, 1959

REVIEW 10.2 Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Identify Xi Jinping’s parents and their roles.

2. Identify the 1954 document that set the framework for the rule of the CCP and claimed that communists would end poverty in China.

3. Summarise the origin of the People’s Republic of China by completing the following sentence.

In [where and when], the CCP … [did what] … because … [why they did it] … which showed [why it mattered].

4. Explain the concept of a Five-Year Plan.

5. Summarise Xi Jinping’s early years by completing the following sentence.

In [where and when], Xi Jinping … [did what] … because … [why they did it] … which showed [why it mattered].

6. Explain why the Great Leap Forward is regarded as a turning point in China’s history.

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10.3 The rise of Xi Jinping: persecution DRIVING QUESTION What happened during the Cultural Revolution, and how did it affect Xi Jinping?

The Cultural Revolution

After the failures of the Great Leap Forward, Mao Zedong temporarily stepped back from day-to-day leadership, although he remained the central figure in Chinese politics. When he later returned to leadership in an official capacity, Mao sought to re-energise the communist project by launching the Cultural Revolution (1966–76).

This period was marked by intense nationalism and ideological extremism, with young people placed at the centre of the movement. High school and university students joined the Red Guards, wearing Mao-suit style uniforms and carrying copies of Quotations from Chairman Mao (commonly referred to as the Little Red Book).

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

nationalism a belief in the superiority of one’s nation and a desire to promote its interests, often placing them above those of other nations

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purge to remove people considered undesirable from an organisation, often through force or intimidation

Writing focus 10.3 Noun phrases (identify and develop)

The Red Guards embodied the cult of personality that had developed around Mao. More than one billion posters featuring his portrait were printed and displayed across China, while the Little Red Book was studied in group sessions nationwide. Many Red Guards came to believe that only young people, along with the ageing Mao himself, were ideologically correct.

Driven by this belief, Red Guards rounded up teachers, journalists and party officials and subjected them to public humiliation and violence in so-called struggle sessions.

From 1966 to 1968, schools and universities were closed so that curricula could be rewritten in line with Mao Zedong Thought. As a result, many students lost at least one year of schooling, while others lost as many as eight years.

Source 10.3.1 Mao Zedong is driven through Tiananmen Square as members of the Red Guards wave their copies of the Little Red Book, Beijing, 1966.

At the same time, Mao used the Cultural Revolution as a political weapon to purge party members suspected of supporting capitalism, promoting Western culture or criticising the CCP. One such victim was Xi Jinping’s father, Xi Zhongxun.

He was dismissed from office and forced to leave Beijing, where he was subjected to thought reform, public humiliation and imprisonment. During this period of persecution, one of Xi’s halfsisters is believed to have taken her own life.

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D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Xi Zhongxun (习仲勋; 1913–2002), Xi Jinping’s father, was a first-generation member of the CCP. He helped establish guerrilla bases in northern China and contributed to Communist victory in the Civil War, both as a Red Army member and as a party official.

Under Mao Zedong, Xi Zhongxun held senior roles, including vice-premier. During the Source 10.3.2 Xi Zhongxun is publicly Cultural Revolution, however, he was purged humiliated during the Cultural Revolution, 1967. from the leadership between 1968 and 1975.

Under Deng Xiaoping, Xi Zhongxun returned to senior roles and became a key reformer. In Guangdong Province, he supported the creation of Special Economic Zones, which played a major role in China’s economic growth. In the 1980s, he was one of the “Eight Elders” who helped guide China towards more pragmatic and tolerant governance.

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SIGNIFICANT INDIVIDUAL

ANALYSIS 10.3

Analysing a source

1. Describe what the people in the image are doing.

2. Describe how the photographer has framed the people in the image (what is included). Why do you think it is framed that way?

3. Explain the origin of the source (where, when, who), to outline its context.

4. Analyse the value and limitations of the source in helping us understand the Cultural Revolution.

Source 10.3.3 Red Guards wave their copies of Mao’s Little Red Book, Beijing, 1966.

Historical concepts: Continuity and change, Contestability Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources

The consequences for Xi Jinping were immediate and severe. When his father was expelled from the party, life changed dramatically for the 13-year-old boy. Red Guards closed his August 1st School, and the neighbourhood school to which Xi later transferred was also shut down. In 1967, Xi was separated from his family and sent hundreds of kilometres away to Shaanxi Province to work on a collective farm.

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Xi became one of around 17 million urban youths who were “sent down to the countryside” during the Cultural Revolution. Until 1975, he performed hard physical labour and lived in a cave dwelling. Xi later claimed that this experience made him more resilient and more appreciative of the lives of manual workers.

Source 10.3.4 Xi Jinping explains the effects of his time in rural China.

Xi Jinping. 2016. Reflections on his time in rural China, quoted in Kerry Brown. 2023. CEO, China: The Rise of Xi Jinping, 2023. Bloomsbury Academic. London: I.B. Tauris, 57.

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As the saying goes, a sword grows sharp when rubbed against a stone, and men grow stronger through hardship.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Despite the suffering his family endured, Xi became increasingly committed to Chinese communism. He applied several times to join the CCP, but his applications were initially rejected because his father was regarded as a political outcast. In 1974, however, Xi was finally accepted into the party. Soon after, he was selected as the local party branch secretary, marking the beginning of his political career.

Source 10.3.5 Tourists visit the cave dwelling where the teenaged Xi Jinping lived, now preserved as a museum.

REVIEW 10.3

Go online to assign and download questions, view results and more!

Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Identify the high school and university student organisation that played a leading role in the Cultural Revolution.

2. Summarise the Cultural Revolution by completing the following sentence.

In [where and when], the Red Guards … [did what] … because … [why they did it] … which showed [why it mattered].

3. Summarise Xi Jinping’s father’s experience during the Cultural Revolution by completing the following sentence.

In [where and when], Xi Zhongxun … [did what] … because … [why they did it] … which showed [why it mattered].

4. Explain the concept of a cult of personality.

5. Explain why the Cultural Revolution is regarded as a turning point in China’s history.

6. Explain why the Cultural Revolution is regarded as a turning point in Xi Jinping’s life.

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10.4 The rise of Xi Jinping: promotions in the CCP DRIVING QUESTION How did Deng Xiaoping change China’s direction, and what did Xi Jinping achieve during this time?

The Reform Era

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

After joining the CCP, Xi Jinping returned to Beijing and studied chemical engineering at Tsinghua University. His academic interests included sustainability, biofuels and alternative energy. At the same time, China was entering a period of major political transition. When Mao Zedong died in 1976, a power struggle followed between Mao’s advisers over who would lead the country. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping emerged as China’s paramount leader.

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Deng publicly reassessed Mao’s legacy, describing him as “seven parts good, three parts bad”. This marked a deliberate effort to end the cult of personality that had surrounded Mao and to acknowledge the failures of the Cultural Revolution. Deng set a new direction for China under the Boluan Fanzheng program (“eliminating chaos and returning to normal”), which aimed to stabilise the country and rebuild trust in government.

Writing focus 10.4 Transitional phrases

Central to this shift was Deng’s policy of “Reform and Opening Up”. China was gradually opened to world trade, and economic growth became the priority. State controls over farms and industries were relaxed, and some foreign businesses were allowed to operate in China. It was during this period that Xi Jinping entered the professional workforce and became a close observer of China’s new approach to development.

Xi began his career in Beijing as secretary to the defence minister before being posted to the provinces. His performance in these roles earned him a series of promotions within the CCP. At the same time, Deng reshaped China’s foreign policy. He promoted peaceful coexistence with Western countries, leading many states to stop recognising Taiwan as the “true” China and instead recognise the People’s Republic. France did so in 1964, Australia in 1972 and the United States in 1979. Deng also instructed China’s relatively small military and diplomatic service to remain cautious on the world stage, famously advising leaders to “hide your capabilities and bide your time”.

Source 10.4.1 A billboard in Chengdu, 1985, promoting the “One Child” policy, which limited population growth from 1979 to 2015

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Source 10.4.2 Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader from 1978 to 1989

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Deng Xiaoping (邓小平; 1904–1997) studied abroad in France and the Soviet Union as a young man and was first involved in communist activities in Shanghai in the late 1920s. Deng supported Mao Zedong, survived the Long March, and in the first years of Mao’s rule led land reforms in the south-west of China. From the late 1950s, Deng held senior positions in Beijing, but he fell out of favour with Mao due to his willingness to experiment with market-based economic reforms. Deng was ostracised during the Cultural Revolution and was briefly forced to work in a tractor factory. Deng became the paramount leader of China by 1978 and led the “Reform and Opening Up” phase.

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SIGNIFICANT INDIVIDUAL

During the 1980s, Xi Jinping served as a senior party official in the grain-growing province of Hebei in northern China (1982–85), where he worked closely with farmers to improve agricultural efficiency. In 1985, he made his first overseas visit, travelling to Iowa in the United States to study corn processing. Later that year, Xi was transferred to Fujian Province on the south-eastern coast, facing Taiwan across the Taiwan Strait. He remained there for nearly two decades (1985–2002), rising steadily through the party ranks as vice mayor, deputy party secretary and eventually governor.

megalopolis an extremely large city, or cluster of cities, with coordinated planning, transport and communication

In Fujian, Xi oversaw poverty alleviation programs and promoted rapid urban development through the concept of the “megalopolis”. This period also marked important personal milestones. He married Peng Liyuan, a well-known folk and opera singer, and they had one child, a daughter, Xi Mingze. In the 2010s, Xi Mingze studied for a Bachelor of Arts degree at Harvard University in the United States.

The Tiananmen Square massacre

Despite Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms, there were clear limits to political change.

From April to June 1989, students in Beijing led a mass protest movement calling for faster “opening up” of Chinese society.

Source 10.4.3 Giant panda Xiaoyue, one of two pandas at Zoo Negara in Selangor, Malaysia under loan from China. Under Deng, China began to use “panda diplomacy” in its relations with the West.

Source 10.4.4 Pro-democracy students gather in Tiananmen Square.

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D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Instead, on 3–4 June 1989, Deng ordered tanks and soldiers into Beijing to clear the square. Troops gave little warning before opening fire with machine guns and driving tanks into crowds of largely peaceful protesters. The violence shocked the world. Journalists were restricted, and some smuggled photographic film out of the country, including images of the man later known as “Tank Man” (Source 10.4.5). The number of deaths remains unknown, although the British ambassador in Beijing later reported an estimate of around 10,000.

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They demanded greater democracy and freedom of speech and occupied Tiananmen Square, at times drawing crowds of more than 1.2 million people. Protesters constructed a papier-mâché statue known as the Goddess of Democracy, and when Deng and the CCP leadership refused to meet their demands, some students began a hunger strike. International media speculated that this could become a turning point in the democratisation of China.

ANALYSIS 10.4

Analysing a source

The “tank man” photo, used on the front pages of newspapers across the world, became a symbol of the Tiananmen Square massacre.

Source 10.4.5 A man holding bags stops a tank convoy approaching Tiananmen Square, June 1989

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Describe what appears to be happening in the image.

Describe how the photographer has framed the image (what is included). Why do you think it is framed that way?

Why do you think the image came to be used as a symbol of the protest?

Analyse the value and limitations of the source in helping us understand the Reform Era.

Historical concepts: Contestability, Significance Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources

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The Tiananmen Square massacre made it clear that, despite economic reform, the CCP continued to demand loyalty and obedience. Officially, the party denied that a massacre had taken place. Although Xi Jinping was not involved in the crackdown – he was working on poverty alleviation projects more than 2,000 kilometres away – he supported the CCP’s position. Discussion or commemoration of the events of June 1989 remains forbidden in China.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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After the Tiananmen Square massacre, Jiang Zemin became China’s new paramount leader. Like Xi Jinping, Jiang had a background in science and engineering and prioritised economic growth. During Jiang’s two terms, China’s Gross Domestic Product increased from about US$459 billion to US$1.148 trillion. In foreign affairs, China regained control of Macau in 1999, ending more than 400 years of Portuguese rule, and Hong Kong in 1997, after more than 150 years of British administration.

At the same time, China began to move cautiously beyond Deng’s “hide and bide” strategy. Under Jiang, Chinese forces seized Mischief Reef in the disputed South China Sea and conducted missile tests near Taiwan, signalling a more assertive regional posture.

SIGNIFICANT INDIVIDUAL

Jiang Zemin (江泽民; 1926–2022) was an electrical engineer who spent years in Russia and Eastern Europe working in manufacturing and first held CCP leadership positions in the late 1970s. Jiang was mayor of the highly modern city of Shanghai in the 1980s. In economic policy, Jiang promoted science and education and allowed more businesses to be privately owned.

Jiang was the only paramount leader to speak English, and he oversaw the handover of Hong Kong from Britain and Macau from Portugal.

Source 10.4.6 Jiang Zemin, China’s paramount leader from 1989 to 2002

REVIEW 10.4

Go online to assign and download questions, view results and more!

Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1.

2.

3.

4.

Identify who led China into its Reform Era. Explain what Xi Jinping had in common with Jiang Zemin.

Explain what Xi Jinping was working on during the Reform Era. Summarise the Reform Era by completing the following sentence.

In [where and when], the CCP … [did what] … because … [why they did it] … which showed [why it mattered].

5. Summarise the Boluan Fanzheng program by completing the following sentence.

In [when], Deng Xiaoping … [did what] … because … [why they did it] … which showed [why it mattered].

6. Explain why the Tiananmen Square massacre is regarded as a turning point in China’s history.

7. Research “panda diplomacy”. What does it mean and how does it work?

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10.5 Xi Jinping as China’s leader: party chief DRIVING QUESTION How did China change in the twenty-first century, and how did Xi Jinping become a senior party chief during that time?

An emerging leader Source 10.5.1 A saying from China about Chinese leaders

Writing focus 10.5 Noun phrases (drafting)

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Mao Zedong built the nation; Deng Xiaoping enriched the nation; Xi Jinping will strengthen the nation.

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Chinese saying, quoted in Chun Han Wong. 2023. Party of One: The Rise of Xi Jinping and China’s Superpower Future. New York: Avid Reader, 152.

In 2002, the CCP moved Xi Jinping to the densely populated south-eastern province of Zhejiang. As party chief there, he achieved national attention for his anti-corruption measures. Next, he was promoted to party secretary in Shanghai, China’s richest and most populated city. Xi served under the new paramount leader, Hu Jintao, who emphasised the need for social harmony (and therefore did not tolerate dissent) and fast economic growth.

Source 10.5.2 Skyscrapers in Shanghai, China’s most populated city, including Shanghai Tower (right), the world’s third-tallest building. Most of these skyscrapers were constructed between the 1990s and 2010s.

SIGNIFICANT INDIVIDUAL

Hu Jintao (胡锦涛; 1942–) was the first paramount leader of China of the post–Civil War generation. An engineer by training, Hu joined the CCP during the Cultural Revolution, even though his father was persecuted. Hu’s first major role in the CCP was in Tibet, where he was known for suppressing anti-communist dissent. As China’s leader, Hu was regarded as quiet and competent. His domestic policies included an emphasis on social harmony.

In foreign policy, Hu’s China developed stronger ties with BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

Source 10.5.3 Hu Jintao, China’s paramount leader from 2003 to 2013, meeting with Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin

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Hu Jintao continued the Reform Era focus on high-speed economic growth, fuelled by factories that made cheap goods that were in demand across the world. Over this period, China’s growth was extraordinary, with the economy growing by over 10% each year.

The living standard of the average Chinese person improved significantly, and China overtook Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy, measured by Gross Domestic Product: the economy grew from US$1.148 trillion to nearly US$9 trillion.

Analysing a source Source 10.5.4 Extract from Xi Jinping’s speech about China’s economy in 2016

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ANALYSIS 10.5

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

China’s economy ranked 11th in the world at the beginning of the reform and opening up; in 2005, 2006, and 2007, it surpassed France, the UK, and Germany in succession to reach the fifth, fourth, and third places, respectively; in 2009, it moved into the second place by overtaking Japan. In 2010, the scale of its manufacturing industry surpassed the US, ranking first in the world. Within a few decades, we have completed the development course that had took several hundred years in the developed countries. This was a miraculous achievement in world history.

Xi Jinping. 2016. What Is the New Normal in China’s Economic Development? Speech to the CCP Central Committee, quoted in Narrating China’s Governance Stories in Xi Jinping’s Speeches, Department of Commentary People’s Daily, translated by Jing Luo, Springer Singapore, 2019.

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Identify the era in Chinese history to which Xi refers in his speech.

Describe the way Xi explains China’s rise in the world economic rankings. Why do you think he explains it in this way?

Explain what makes China’s development unique, according to Xi. Identify the audience of the source, and explain how that relates to Xi’s message.

Analyse the value and limitations of the source in helping us understand Xi’s opinions on China’s economic development.

Historical concepts: Causation, Perspectives Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources

Xi Jinping emerged on the national stage in 2007, when he was appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee. He was then chosen as vice president of China in 2008. Xi’s significant roles included overseeing the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, managing relations with the former foreign colonies of Hong Kong and Macau, and engaging in discussions with American and Russian leaders.

Like Hu, who had risen through the ranks after showing zero tolerance for independence activists in the Tibet Autonomous Region, Xi insisted that all of China’s ethnicities should come under the control of the central government, and that dissent and protest were incompatible with a “harmonious” society. Over this time, it became clear that Xi was the most likely successor to Hu as the next paramount leader.

During Xi’s term as deputy, the state increased its role in economic and social issues.

The central government expanded healthcare insurance for Chinese citizens, invested in public hospitals, and reversed some of Deng Xiaoping’s efforts to encourage private businesses. Hu and Xi preferred state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Xi also brought an interest in environmental sustainability to his role. The CCP created a Ministry of Environmental Protection to address the most visible environmental impacts of China’s economic growth – air and water pollution – as well as climate change. It introduced environmental impact assessments and inspections and set emissions reduction targets.

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Source 10.5.5 Vice President Xi Jinping meets US President George W. Bush, who was in Beijing for the opening of the 2008 Olympic Games.

RESEARCH 10.1

Investigating environmental policies

Starting with “Olympic Blue” (https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11756), research what China did to address environmental issues during the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympic Games.

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Identify what environmental problems were addressed.

Explain what actions were taken to address the problems.

Explain what the actions achieved in the short term and longer term.

Explain the role of Xi Jinping in relation to the Games.

Historical concepts: Significance, Contestability Historical skills: Historical investigation and research

REVIEW 10.5 Online quiz

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Review questions

Access sample responses and results

Identify where Xi Jinping worked during the early years of the twenty-first century.

Identify Xi’s CCP roles from 2002 to 2008.

Explain China’s development during the Reform Era under Hu Jintao.

Research information you can find about state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China. Using examples, explain what they are and what they do.

5. Research the Ministry of Environmental Protection/Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China (e.g. its news releases). Using examples, explain its work.

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10.6 Xi Jinping as China’s leader: paramount leader DRIVING QUESTION What kind of leader did Xi Jinping become?

The New Era Writing focus 10.6 Transitional phrases

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In 2013, Xi Jinping became the new 国家主席 (guojia zhuxi), or State Chairman (often referred to as president in the West). One of his first actions as China’s paramount leader was to reverse a long-standing approach to the nation’s history. For a generation, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had acknowledged Mao Zedong’s mistakes and emphasised the importance of the reforms introduced from the late 1970s onwards. Under Xi, however, Mao was increasingly portrayed as a strong leader who had earned the CCP the moral right to rule China.

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neo-authoritarian of a leader or system that revives a belief in strict obedience to a strong central authority at the expense of personal freedom

This shift in historical interpretation reflected a broader change in leadership style.

Xi encouraged the CCP to unite closely behind him, to move away from the Reform Era’s reliance on Western measures of success, and to be more assertive about China’s national identity. Analysts began to compare Xi with Chairman Mao, describing him as a neo-authoritarian strongman ruler, and in some cases referring to him as “Chairman Xi”.

In his first address to the nation as paramount leader, Xi introduced the idea of the “Chinese Dream”. This vision set out two major economic goals: 1. to become moderately prosperous by doubling China’s per capita income to US$10,000 by the centenary of the founding of the CCP in 2021 2. to become a fully advanced economy by the centenary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 2049.

Source 10.6.1 Extract from Xi Jinping’s speech about the Chinese dream

We must make persistent efforts, press ahead with indomitable will, continue to push forward the great cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and strive to achieve the Chinese dream of great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. … To realise the Chinese road, we must spread the Chinese spirit, which combines the spirit of the nation with patriotism as the core and the spirit of the time with reform and innovation as the core.

Xi Jinping. 2013. First address as paramount leader, 17 March.

To consolidate his authority, Xi launched a major “anti-corruption” campaign soon after taking office. Thousands of officials were dismissed, and within a year more than 1 million officials had been investigated or punished. Officially, the campaign aimed to remove those who had breached administrative rules. However, many analysts argued that it also functioned as a political purge, removing Xi’s rivals and their supporters from positions of influence.

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Source 10.6.2 A statement by Xi Jinping on ideology

If we shape our approach around Western capitalist values, judge our national progress using Western capitalist measures, and treat Western standards as the only benchmarks for development, the results would be disastrous.

The South China Sea

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At the same time, Xi signalled that China would be more assertive in promoting its national interests. One clear example was the increase in Chinese military activity in the South China Sea, a strategically important region claimed in part by several neighbouring states. China asserts sovereignty over a large area marked on maps by the “nine-dash line”, a claim rejected by countries including Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines. Under Xi, China dredged sand from the seabed to construct artificial islands and deployed naval vessels to challenge the fishing fleets of other nations.

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Xi Jinping’s Speech Delivered at the National Work Conference of the Party Schools, 11 December 2015.

These actions continued despite the Philippines winning a case in the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which ruled that China’s claims were invalid under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Although China maintains that its artificial islands are for scientific purposes, they appear to include airstrips and refuelling facilities, and Chinese military activity has been observed there. In response, Western nations, including Australia, have conducted military exercises in the region to demonstrate support for the Philippines’ maritime rights.

CHINA

South China Sea Pratas Scarborough Shoal Island

Subic Bay

Paracel Islands Spratly Islands

VIETNAM

MALAYSIA

PHILIPPINES

James Shoal

MALAYSIA

BRUNEI

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Territorial waters claimed by China (Nine-dash line) Exclusive Economic Zone Disputed islands between China and Vietnam

Disputed islands between China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines

Source 10.6.3 The “nine-dash line” China uses on maps to indicate claimed waters in the South China Sea

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Source 10.6.5 Xi meets President Barack Obama in the United States during his first year as leader, 2013.

Domestically, Xi strengthened the CCP’s control over internal security and information. To protect what the government describes as “cyberspace sovereignty”, China operates a system commonly known as the Great Firewall of China. This system restricts access to foreign websites and tightly controls online speech. Popular Western platforms such as Google, Facebook, X (Twitter), Wikipedia and many international news sites are blocked. Instead, users rely on Chinese platforms such as WeChat, Sina Weibo and Douyin (known internationally as TikTok), all of which include built-in censorship and content controls.

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Source 10.6.4 Docks and landing strips on a Chinese artificial island in the South China Sea. Before construction began, Fiery Cross Reef was a small atoll and a rock.

Xi also moved decisively away from Deng Xiaoping’s principle of “hide your capabilities and bide your time”. Instead, China was encouraged to engage with the world in a way that reflected its status as a global superpower. In June 2013, Xi visited the United States and proposed to President Barack Obama a “new type of great power relations”, signalling that China now viewed itself as an equal to the United States.

This shift was formalised in November 2014, when Xi convened a CCP Central Work Conference on Foreign Affairs. The conference set new goals, including securing leadership positions for Chinese officials in international organisations and reshaping the global order in China’s favour.

RESEARCH 10.2

Evaluating state control

Under Xi Jinping, the central government has extended its control over ethnic minorities and regions seeking greater autonomy from Chinese political and legal authority. Select one of the following issues and create a one-page summary of events during Xi’s leadership: what do people want, and how has the CCP responded?

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The Uyghur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang Hong Kong since 2014 Taiwan and the One China policy The Tibet Autonomous Region

Historical concepts: Perspectives Historical skills: Historical investigation and research

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Xi’s leadership faced its most serious challenge in December 2019, when a new coronavirus emerged in the city of Wuhan. Although Chinese authorities initially claimed that the outbreak had been contained through local lockdowns, COVID-19 spread rapidly across the world. It became the deadliest pandemic in a century, causing more than 7 million deaths globally and triggering severe economic disruption. While Chinese scientists shared data that contributed to vaccine development, Xi’s government did not fully cooperate with international investigations into the origins of the virus.

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Source 10.6.6 Xi Jinping inspects People’s Liberation Army soldiers in Hong Kong in 2017, following city-wide protests against Beijing’s policies.

Tensions with Australia increased in this context. When the Australian government under Prime Minister Scott Morrison joined the United States in calling for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19, China imposed a range of trade restrictions on Australian exports, including coal, seafood and timber. These measures had significant economic consequences for Australian industries and highlighted how suddenly the bilateral relationship could become strained under Xi's leadership.

REVIEW 10.6 Online quiz

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Review questions

Access sample responses and results

Identify the goals of the “Chinese Dream”.

Describe the effects of Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign.

Explain what actions China has taken in the South China Sea, and why they are significant.

Explain Xi Jinping’s policies on social media, and why they are significant.

Explain Xi Jinping’s policies towards groups seeking greater autonomy from Chinese political and legal authority, and their effects.

6. Discuss how Xi Jinping’s policies on the internet and social media may influence Chinese high school students’ views of the world.

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10.7 Xi’s signature policies: trade and climate DRIVING QUESTION •

As leader, what signature policies did Xi Jinping introduce, and how have they affected the world?

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The Belt and Road Initiative

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Xi Jinping’s most significant economic policy is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013. The BRI aims to create two major trade routes: one overland, based on the historic Silk Road, and one by sea. Together, these routes are designed to place China at the centre of Asian, Eurasian and global maritime trade.

To achieve this goal, China committed to building thousands of roads, ports and railways across multiple continents, Source 10.7.1 Freight trains loaded with coal at the Suifenhe Railway in making the BRI possibly the largest Heilongjiang Province, part of the Belt and Road Initiative linking Russia, China infrastructure investment project in and Europe history. Xi described it as the “project of the century”. Beyond trade, the initiative also allows China to expand its global influence directly. Unlike development aid managed by United Nations agencies, BRI projects are controlled by Chinese state-owned enterprises, including the China Silk Road Fund, the China Development Bank and the Export–Import Bank of China. These organisations do not need to consult multilateral bodies on funding multilateral involving cooperation between priorities, nor are they required to follow international labour, environmental or multiple countries safety standards.

Source 10.7.2 Extract from Xi Jinping’s speech in Davos, Switzerland, about China’s development

Writing focus 10.7 Source analysis (perspective)

China’s development is an opportunity for the world; China has not only benefited from economic globalization but also contributed to it. Rapid growth in China has been a sustained, powerful engine for global economic stability and expansion …

We Chinese know only too well what it takes to achieve prosperity, so we applaud the achievements made by others and wish them a better future. We are not jealous of others’ success; and we will not complain about others who have benefited so much from the great opportunities presented by China’s development. We will open our arms to the people of other countries and welcome them aboard the express train of China’s development.

Xi Jinping. 2017. Address to the World Economic Forum, Davos, January.

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Rotterdam RUSSIA

BELGIUM

GERMANY Duisberg

FRANCE

Venice ITALY

KAZAKHSTAN Horgoš Almaty Bishkek UZBEKISTAN

UKRAINE Istanbul Athens

Ürümqi Beijing

Dushanbe Tehran Samarkand PAKISTAN IRAN Gwadar

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Xi’an

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Kolkata INDIA

Haikou

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Fuzhou Quanzhou Guangzhou

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Colombo

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Kuala Lumpur

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Jakarta

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Silk Road Economic Belt

Maritime Silk Road Initiative

Source 10.7.3 The Belt and Road Initiative links Asia and Europe through overland and maritime trade routes.

By 2025, the BRI had spent around US$1.3 trillion, mostly on construction contracts, in more than 100 countries.

Many developing nations welcomed the initiative, as it offered rapid access to funding for much-needed infrastructure.

Critics, however, highlighted significant concerns. These included reports of poor-quality construction, exploitation of local workers, environmental damage, and the risk of debt that recipient countries would eventually need to repay to China.

Source 10.7.4 Workers on the mobile phone assembly line at the MiOne factory in the Sino-Uganda Mbale Industrial Park in Uganda, a Chinese-owned factory built under the BRI

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The European Chamber of Commerce also criticised the lack of transparency in BRI projects, noting that Chinese firms were routinely selected while European companies were effectively excluded.

Source 10.7.5 Extract from Bruno Maçães’s (journalist and former Europe minister for Portugal) book on China’s rise

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Bruno Maçães. 2018. Belt and Road: A Chinese World Order. London: Hurst, 13.

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The world after the Belt and Road will never be the same as it was before. More than any other project, it has come to symbolize a new phase in China’s rise, the moment when Beijing embraces its role as a new superpower, capable of remaking the world economy and attracting other countries to its own economic orbit and ideological model.

RESEARCH 10.3

Investigating BRI expansion

Starting with the Council on Foreign Relations report Countries in China’s Belt and Road Initiative at https://cambridge.edu.au/redirect/11757, research the following in small groups.

1. Identify how many countries have joined the BRI in: (a) Africa, (b) Europe and Central Asia, (c) East Asia and the Pacific, (d) Latin America and the Caribbean, (e) the Middle East and North Africa, and (f) South Asia.

2. Explain the characteristics of countries that have not joined the BRI. 3. Select at least four countries from different regions that have joined the BRI (e.g. one per student). Identify when they joined, whether neighbouring countries also joined, and research what projects are underway there.

4. Identify countries near Australia that have joined the BRI. Research what projects are underway there.

5. Discuss in your group the information you have found and develop three questions that a researcher could use to learn more about the impacts of the BRI.

Historical concepts: Significance Historical skills: Historical investigation and research

Environmental policy

carbon neutrality operating in a way that does not add to the total amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

Alongside trade and infrastructure, climate policy became another defining feature of Xi’s leadership. His signature environmental policy is “green development”, underpinned by the long-term goal of achieving carbon neutrality by Source 10.7.6 A 1.32-megawatt power plant in Jiangsu Province, 2060. This commitment one of China’s approximately 1200 coal-fired electricity stations is particularly significant because China produces around 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions, more than the United States, India and Russia combined. Air pollution remains a serious issue in many Chinese cities, which regularly experience hazardous air quality levels.

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Source 10.7.7 A 1-megawatt solar thermal power plant under construction in Qinghai Province in 2025, contributing to China’s leadership in renewable energy production

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Under Xi, China became the world’s largest investor in renewable energy. Chinese manufacturers came to dominate the global supply of electric vehicles and solar panels, and the government set a target for renewable sources to generate at least 25% of China’s energy by 2030. In 2025, amid growing global uncertainty over climate action, Xi made China’s first official pledge to an absolute emissions reduction target.

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This announcement followed decisions by some world leaders to abandon emissions reduction commitments, most notably US President Donald Trump, who told the United Nations that he believed climate change was a “hoax”. In contrast, Xi pledged that China would cut its emissions to 7–10% below peak levels by 2035, signalling China’s intention to present itself as a global leader on climate action.

Source 10.7.8 Extract from Xi Jinping’s remarks at a United Nations climate summit

Green and low-carbon transition is the trend of our time. While some country is acting against it, the international community should stay focused on the right direction … China will, by 2035 … reduce economy-wide net greenhouse-gas emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels, striving to do better; … and basically establish a climate-adaptive society.

Xi Jinping. 2025. Address to the United Nations General Assembly, September.

REVIEW 10.7 Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Identify the two routes of the Belt and Road Initiative.

2. Summarise the Belt and Road Initiative by completing the following sentence.

In [when], the CCP … [did what] … because … [why they did it] … which showed [why it mattered].

3. Explain what Xi told the World Economic Forum in 2017 about China’s development.

4. Summarise Xi’s commitments on climate change by completing the following sentence.

In [where and when], Xi Jinping … [did what] … because … [why they did it] … which showed [why it mattered].

5. Discuss China’s role in climate change and renewable energy.

6. Discuss the benefits and disadvantages for other countries of participating in the Belt and Road Initiative.

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10.8 Xi Jinping Thought DRIVING QUESTION What are the main ideas that guide Xi Jinping’s leadership and form his ideology?

Philosophy of the nation

After his first three years in office, the CCP awarded Xi Jinping the title of “core leader”.

This designation is reserved for the most influential figures in China’s modern political history and had previously been applied only to Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin.

In March 2018, the National People’s Congress unanimously re-elected Xi as leader. At the Source 10.8.1 Books by Xi Jinping at the press centre for the same time, the CCP amended 20th National Congress of the CCP in a Beijing hotel set up as a closed loop to prevent the spread of COVID-19, October 2022 China’s constitution in two significant ways: first, to recognise “Xi Jinping Thought” as one of the guiding philosophies of the nation; and second, to remove the limit restricting leaders to two five-year terms. Together, these changes paved the way for Xi to remain China’s core leader beyond 2023, when he would otherwise have been required to step down, and potentially to rule indefinitely.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Writing focus 10.8 Transitional phrases

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Xi Jinping Thought part of the official guiding ideology of the CCP under Xi Jinping, based on selected speeches, writings and policies, and emphasising strong party control, nationalism and a more assertive role for China in global affairs

The CCP further elevated Xi’s status in the early 2020s. In 2021, the party declared that China had achieved its long-standing goal of eradicating extreme poverty. During Xi’s first two terms, China’s Gross Domestic Product grew from around US$9 trillion to approximately US$18 trillion. Later that year, the CCP adopted a new “Resolution on the Major Achievements and Historical Experience of the Party over the Past Century” assessing the party’s progress, with a strong focus on achievements under Xi’s leadership. This was only the third such resolution in CCP history, following those passed for Mao Zedong in 1945 and Deng Source 10.8.2 Xi Jinping pictured in late 2021 Xiaoping in 1981. The resolution argued that “Comrade Xi Jinping” was helping to lead China to build a “great modern socialist country” in which all Chinese people would work towards the shared goals of economic prosperity and a higher standard of living, as part of “the Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation”.

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This resolution reflects the growing importance of Xi Jinping Thought as an ideological framework. The CCP’s 95 million members are encouraged to study this ideology through official books, websites and smartphone apps. Some historians have compared this system of ideological education to the role played by Mao’s Little Red Book during the Cultural Revolution. To interpret the meaning and implications of Xi’s ideas, a group of analysts commonly referred to as “China watchers” closely examine his speeches, policies and public statements. China watchers include academics, journalists, diplomats and policy experts outside China who study Chinese politics and society in order to understand the direction of the CCP and its leadership.

Over time, Xi has used a series of key phrases, often described as “banner terms”, to communicate the core ideas of his ideology. The following 10 examples illustrate the main themes of Xi Jinping Thought.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

A community of common destiny for all humankind

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Xi Jinping argues that the international order should be reshaped in China’s favour rather than remaining dominated by the West. This may involve changes to global trade rules, international law and international organisations in order to reduce what Xi describes as American “hegemony” and the imposition of Western ideas such as universal human rights on other cultures.

Common prosperity

While CCP leaders have spoken of common prosperity for decades, Xi gives the concept renewed emphasis. He uses it to mean reducing inequality by expanding the number of people earning a “middle income”, while avoiding a welfare-based system that might allow individuals to avoid contributing to society through work.

Source 10.8.3 Xi Jinping arrives for the closing session of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in March 2026.

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Comprehensive national power Since the 1980s, Chinese strategists have argued that national strength should be measured not only by the size of its army, but also by a comprehensive assessment of how the nation compares with other states. Xi supports this view, defining national power as a combination of political, economic, scientific and technological, military, cultural, educational and diplomatic strengths, as well as control over natural resources.

Great changes not seen in a century

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Xi argues that the world is entering a period of historic transformation. Just as the 1910s and 1920s saw the decline of European empires and the rise of the United States, Xi claims that the 2010s and 2020s mark another shift in global power. In this new era, he argues that the United States will decline and China will rise, a process that may involve “struggle” (i.e. sustained political, economic, ideological or military competition).

Great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation

Although CCP leaders have referred to national rejuvenation since the late 1980s, Xi uses the concept in a more explicitly nationalist way. For him, rejuvenation means restoring China to major power status through modernisation, economic strength and environmental sustainability. The ultimate goal is to achieve “lasting greatness” by 2049, the centenary of the People’s Republic of China.

Moving closer to the centre of the global stage

Source 10.8.4 A Chinese journalist holds a magazine with President Xi Jinping on the cover after a video-link press conference on the theme “Under the Guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Diplomacy” in Beijing, 2022.

Xi Jinping calls for China to take a more central role in global institutions and decision-making.

This marks a departure from Deng Xiaoping’s advice to “hide our capabilities and bide our time”. Instead, Xi encourages a more assertive style of diplomacy, sometimes described as “wolf warrior” diplomacy, with the aim of restoring China’s status after its “century of humiliation”, which began with the Opium Wars.

New development concept

Introduced in 2015, when China’s economic growth began to slow, the new development philosophy shifts the focus away from high-speed growth towards high-quality development. This includes greater emphasis on science and technology, innovation and environmental sustainability.

New type of great power relations

Xi argues that China should be recognised as an equal of the United States. He claims that relations between great powers should avoid conflict and confrontation, show mutual respect for each other’s core interests, and seek opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation.

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Self-reliance

Source 10.8.5 A cargo ship unloading imported iron ore at the ore terminal of Qingdao Port in Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Total national security paradigm

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Under Xi, self-reliance has become a central principle of economic policy, particularly in advanced technologies.

It was made a core priority of the 2026–30 Five-Year Plan. While China already dominates areas such as electric vehicles and solar panels, Xi has argued that the country must also control critical mineral supply chains and become a leading power in semiconductors and computing.

Xi Jinping expanded the concept of national security to include both traditional threats, such as military invasion, and non-traditional threats. This approach views China as under constant pressure from Western competitors and internal dissenters, who may pose economic, political, cultural or information-based risks to the state.

ANALYSIS 10.6

Analysing sources

1. Summarise Xi’s banner terms by allocating them to two columns: national and international. Then, explain what this shows about Xi Jinping Thought.

2. Select one banner term that seems particularly significant to China’s national goals.

Explain why you think it is significant.

3. Select one banner term that seems particularly significant to China’s international goals.

Explain why you think it is significant.

4. Analyse the value and limitations of banner terms in helping us understand Xi’s ideology for China.

Historical concepts: Significance Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources

REVIEW 10.8 Online quiz

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Review questions

Access sample responses and results

Identify how the CCP changed China’s constitution in 2018.

Identify what the CCP declared that China had done by 2021.

Explain why the 2021 “historical resolution” of the CCP was significant.

Explain where the statements that make up Xi Jinping Thought can be found.

Evaluate whether the CCP has given Xi Jinping a similar status to the cult of personality that once revolved around Mao Zedong.

6. Search for the most recent official statement made by Xi Jinping. Which, if any, of his banner terms did he use? Discuss what that shows.

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10.9 Implications of Xi Jinping: China watchers on Xi’s nationalism DRIVING QUESTION What are the perspectives of experts about China’s directions under Xi Jinping?

An uncontested election

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In March 2023, Xi was re-elected to a third five-year term as paramount leader. He was the only candidate. He is advised primarily by the Politburo Standing Committee, whose members were chosen for their loyalty to Xi. Many observers suggest that no Chinese leader since Mao Zedong has had such a single-handed influence on the nation.

Analysis and criticism of the CCP and its leaders is not encouraged within China.

Officially authorised publications refer to Xi Jinping’s strong leadership and admirable qualities, using phrases such as: “President Xi has won the support and love of over a billion Chinese people”. Outside China, a more critical network of China watchers reports on the implications of Chinese policies and actions.

Chinese nationalism

Under Xi, China watchers have detected an increase in nationalism. In the 1940s, the English author George Orwell argued that nationalism was a destructive force because it means a desire for power: “the habit of identifying oneself with a single nation or other unit, placing it beyond good and evil and recognizing no other duty than that of advancing its interests”. China watchers have encouraged world leaders to pay more attention to the ways in which Xi’s nationalism is redirecting China and reshaping the world order.

Source 10.9.1 Xi Jinping (top center, in grey) waves to the crowd after delivering a speech above the portrait of former Chairman Mao Zedong at Tiananmen Gate during a ceremony marking the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party on 1 July 2021 in Tiananmen Square, Beijing.

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Source 10.9.2 Kevin Rudd, former Australian prime minister and prominent China watcher

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Kevin Rudd (born 21 September 1957) studied Chinese culture and language at university before becoming an Australian diplomat, including a posting in Beijing (1984–87). He was elected to federal parliament as a Labor Party member in 1998. He served as Australia’s 26th prime minister from 2007 to 2010, as foreign minister, and briefly as prime minister again in 2013. After resigning from politics, Rudd moved to the United States and took on a range of international roles. In 2015, he became President of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York, with a focus on China.

Rudd speaks and reads Chinese fluently. He became Australia’s ambassador to the United States in 2023. Rudd earned a PhD for his research on Xi’s ideology and has published books on the subject.

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SIGNIFICANT INDIVIDUAL

Former Australian prime minister and prominent China watcher Kevin Rudd argues that Xi Jinping has developed a new form of Marxist nationalism. In discussing his 2022 book, The Avoidable War, about a potential conflict between China and the United States, Rudd argued that Xi’s goal was “to supplant the United States as the dominant power in East Asia” and to become “the undisputed dominant global power” (PRISM, vol. 10, no. 1). In his 2024 book, On Xi Jinping: How Xi’s Marxist Nationalism is Shaping China and the World, Rudd said, “Xi’s intention is not just to change China. It is also to change the international order itself”. Rudd also notes that Xi has removed so many rivals that it is unclear who would be qualified and ready to take over from him.

Writing focus 10.9 Source analysis (perspective)

ANALYSIS 10.7

Analysing interpretations

Refer to the following interpretations of Xi’s leadership to answer the questions that follow.

Source 10.9.3 Extract from a book by Elizabeth Economy (Council on Foreign Relations – an American thinktank) about Xi Jinping

Pushing aside decades of institutionalized collective decision-making that acknowledged the general secretary of the CCP and president of the country as first among equals, Xi Jinping, like Mao before him, has established himself as simply first.

Elizabeth Economy. 2018. The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State. New York: Oxford University Press, 23.

Source 10.9.4 Extract from Kevin Rudd’s book about Xi Jinping

In many respects, what Xi has done is intensify and accelerate priorities and plans that have long been part of the party’s strategy. Where Xi has changed China’s worldview has been in the reinvigoration of the party’s Marxist-Leninist foundations, the turbocharging of Chinese nationalism, and the sharpening of the country’s national ambitions.

Kevin Rudd. 2022. The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China. Sydney: Hachette, 77.

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Source 10.9.5 An extract from another Elizabeth Economy book about Xi Jinping

[Xi] envisions a China that has regained centrality on the global stage: it has reclaimed contested territory, assumed a position of preeminence in the Asia Pacific, ensured that other countries have aligned their political, economic, and security interests with its own, provided the world’s technological infrastructure for the 21st century, and embedded its norms, values, and standards in international laws and institutions.

Elizabeth Economy. 2022. The World According to China. Cambridge: Polity Press, 2.

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Source 10.9.6 Extract from a book by Stefan Aust and Adrian Geiges (German journalists) about Xi Jinping

Nationalism is a far more dangerous contagion than a coronavirus. … For a ruler, nationalism is a powerful tool. This is especially true for Xi Jinping. … On the international stage … he presents himself as a champion of cooperation and an opponent of US hegemony and the new American protectionism.

Stefan Aust and Adrian Geiges. 2022. Xi Jinping: The Most Powerful Man in the World. Cambridge: Polity Press, 171.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Source 10.9.7 Extract from Chun Han Wong’s (Wall Street Journal reporter) book about Xi Jinping

Something new is happening with Xi’s China … there is something unique to the individual “agency” of Xi’s particular form of political statecraft that has been a major force in changing China’s national direction [to] a more Leninist party, a more Marxist economy, [and] a more nationalist and assertive international policy.

Chun Han Wong. 2023. Party of One: The Rise of Xi Jinping and China’s Superpower Future. New York: Avid Reader, 11.

Source 10.9.8 An extract from another Kevin Rudd book about Xi Jinping

Something new is happening with Xi’s China … there is something unique to the individual “agency” of Xi’s particular form of political statecraft that has been a major force in changing China’s national direction [to] a more Leninist party, a more Marxist economy, [and] a more nationalist and assertive international policy.

Kevin Rudd. 2024. On Xi Jinping: How Xi’s Marxist Nationalism Is Shaping China and the World. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 15–16.

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List the implications of Xi Jinping’s leadership as identified by Sources 10.9.3– 10.9.8.

According to Economy, what does Xi envision?

According to Rudd, what has Xi changed within China and beyond China?

In 1989, Deng Xiaoping said, “Building a nation’s fate on the reputation of one or two people is very unhealthy and very dangerous”. Discuss how that idea might apply to Xi’s leadership, referring to the above sources.

Historical concepts: Contestability Historical skills: Analysis and use of sources, Historical interpretation

REVIEW 10.9

Go online to assign and download questions, view results and more!

Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Identify what Xi Jinping achieved in March 2023.

2. Explain why many observers say that no Chinese leader since Mao Zedong has had such a single-handed influence on the nation as Xi. 3. Explain why Kevin Rudd is a prominent China watcher.

4. Explain why Xi’s nationalism concerns China watchers.

5. Discuss why Xi Jinping’s leadership style may pose a risk to China in the future.

6. Search for information about another leader in the past or present who is regarded as authoritarian. Based on your study of Xi, discuss to what extent they have characteristics in common.

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10.10 Implications of Xi Jinping: international relations and Australia DRIVING QUESTION How has Xi Jinping’s leadership of China affected international relations and Australia?

International relations

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

In international relations, China under Xi Jinping has continued to align itself with the group of developing countries known as “G77+China”, sometimes referred to as the Global South. Together, these countries represent around 80% of the world’s population.

At the same time, however, some China watchers have described Xi’s approach as “big country diplomacy”, reflecting his view that China should participate on equal terms with the most powerful states in global affairs. Consistent with this ambition, China has become the second-largest contributor to the United Nations and has increasingly put forward candidates for positions of influence within international organisations.

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Writing focus 10.10 Noun phrases (drafting)

Source 10.10.1 Extract from Xi Jinping’s report to the CCP

China remains firm in pursuing an independent foreign policy of peace. We respect the right of the people of all countries to choose their own development path. We endeavour to uphold international fairness and justice, and oppose acts that impose one’s will on others or interfere in the internal affairs of others as well as the practice of the strong bullying the weak.

China will never pursue development at the expense of others’ interests, but nor will China ever give up its legitimate rights and interests. No one should expect us to swallow anything that undermines our interests.

Xi Jinping. 2017. Report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, 18 October, 53.

Military power

This more assertive global posture has been supported by a significant expansion of China’s military power. Xi has led a large build-up of the armed forces, arguing that a major power required a strong military. According to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, China’s defence spending increased 13-fold over 30 years. By 2014, the Chinese navy had overtaken the US Navy by ship numbers and was projected to have 48% more major surface combatants by 2030. It is also estimated that China doubled its number of nuclear warheads during Xi’s second term, to at least 600.

Xi’s foreign policy choices have also reshaped China’s relationships with other major powers. In 2022, while Beijing hosted the Winter Olympic Games, Xi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders announced that the China–Russia relationship would have “no limits” and that there would be “no forbidden areas of cooperation”.

Source 10.10.2 Putin and Xi agree to a “no limits” relationship in 2022.

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Although this was not a formal military alliance, the timing was significant. Just three weeks later, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and China adopted a position of neutrality rather than condemning the attack.

China–Australia tensions

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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Chinese activity in Australia’s region has increased significantly in the twenty-first century. While this is consistent with Xi’s call for China to move to the centre of global affairs, it has led to concern in Australia. For Australian governments, China is both an essential economic partner and a challenging strategic presence. More than 1.4 million Australians identify as having Chinese ancestry, and since 2007 China has been Australia’s largest trading partner. China imports Australian iron ore, natural gas and coal, while Chinese students contribute significantly to Australian universities. In return, Australia imports technology and manufactured goods from China.

Alongside these close economic ties, however, security concerns have intensified.

Australian authorities have expressed fears that China may be collecting sensitive security or economic information in Western countries, including Australia. Some Chinese nationals have been expelled for alleged espionage, and others have been accused of attempting to influence Australian elections.

Source 10.10.3 Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese meets Xi Jinping at the G20 Summit in late 2024.

Source 10.10.4 Xi Jinping opens the Confucius Institute at RMIT, Melbourne, in 2010. The university closed the institute in the 2020s amid concerns about China’s influence in Australia.

Concerns about China’s influence have also extended into education and culture. Confucius Institutes, which are joint ventures between China’s education ministry and host universities or schools overseas, have attracted growing scrutiny. The first institute opened in South Korea in 2004, and within 20 years more than 500 had been established worldwide. Xi has promoted these institutes as a way to teach Chinese language and culture and to present a “good narrative” about China. In the early 2020s, however, amid fears that some institutes could be used for surveillance or propaganda, six Australian universities closed their Confucius Institutes.

China–Australia tensions became particularly visible in 2020. After Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an international investigation into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, China imposed a series of punitive trade restrictions on Australian exports. Hundreds of crates of Australian lobster were left stranded at Chinese airports, wine and barley faced sharply increased tariffs, and trade in coal, timber and cotton was blocked. Economists described these measures as “economic coercion”. Australian exporters were forced to seek alternative markets, such as cotton exports to Vietnam and coal exports to Japan. Trade restrictions were gradually lifted following meetings in 2023 and 2024 between Xi and the new Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese.

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China’s presence in the Pacific

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

RESEARCH 10.4

geopolitical of political activity or decisions influenced by the physical features of a country or area, or how a country’s territory influences its power and relationships

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Under Xi, China has also expanded its presence in the Pacific region. Australia remains the largest development partner in the Pacific, providing more than 40% of all aid funding, followed by New Zealand and Japan. China is the fourth-largest contributor, at under 10%, but is nevertheless considered a significant influence. Chinese funding has supported infrastructure projects, humanitarian assistance such as a touring hospital ship, and loans that Pacific Island governments must eventually repay. In many cases, China receives strategic or diplomatic benefits in return. For example, after receiving a $730 million Chinese investment in sports facilities, hospitals and mining projects, the Solomon Islands ended its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan. These developments have prompted broader concerns about China’s geopolitical intentions, not only in the Pacific Islands region but also further south in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica.

Understanding Antarctic governance

Investigate CHINARE (the Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition) to complete to the following activities.

Source 10.10.5 China’s Zhongshan Antarctic Station, established in 1989, in territory that Australia claims

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Identify the origins of CHINARE. Explain the locations of China’s research stations in Antarctica.

Explain how rules of the Antarctic Treaty and the Madrid Protocol apply to Antarctic activities.

Discuss what might happen if there were international tension and countries abandoned the rules of the Antarctic Treaty.

Historical concepts: Significance Historical skills: Historical investigation and research

In response to China’s growing military power, Australian governments have strengthened security partnerships with like-minded states. In 2007, Australia, India, Japan and the United States formed “the Quad” as a forum for diplomatic dialogue on Indo-Pacific security. Although Prime Minister Kevin Rudd withdrew Australia from the Quad in 2008, citing concerns about damaging relations with China, the grouping was revived in 2017.

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AUKUS

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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In 2021, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced the AUKUS partnership. Under this agreement, Australia will acquire nuclear-powered (but not nuclear-armed) submarines and expand military cooperation with the United States.

While AUKUS does not mention China explicitly, it is widely interpreted as an effort to balance Beijing’s growing influence in the region. Xi’s government described the agreement as “extremely irresponsible” and warned that it could trigger a new arms race; however, there has been no immediate damage to the China–Australia relationship.

Source 10.10.6 Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during an AUKUS summit in 2023 in California

REVIEW 10.10

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Online quiz

Review questions

Access sample responses and results

1. Identify the group of nations to which China belongs in the UN, and explain what that shows.

2. Summarise how XI strengthened China’s great power position by completing the following sentence.

In [where and when], Xi Jinping … [did what] … because … [why they did it] … which showed [why it mattered].

3. Explain the significance of Australia’s trade relationship with China.

4. Explain China’s role in the Pacific Islands region.

5. Summarise the significance of AUKUS by completing the following sentence.

In [where and when], Australia … [did what] … because … [why they did it] … which showed [why it mattered].

6. Search for a recent article about AUKUS or Australia’s trade policy. Discuss whether the article mentions China and, if so, how the relationship with China seems to be affecting Australian policy.

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10.11 Chapter review Revise and consolidate your learning with these online tools: Download or answer questions online View suggested responses Writing focus worksheets.

Teachers can access these additional downloadable resources and Learning Management System features: Individual student reports Assign tasks and track results Exam Generator: create custom practice exams Writing focus workbook.

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

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Chapter summary • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

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By 2025, when China marked the 80th anniversary of victory over Japan in the Second World War, Xi Jinping was the undisputed leader of one of the world’s most influential nations.

Xi was born in 1953, after the Chinese Revolution had brought the Marxist–Leninist Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to power.

Xi’s family were prominent members of the CCP. Mao Zedong pushed for fast and widespread reforms as China’s first communist leader.

A cult of personality and intense nationalism developed around Mao. During Mao’s Cultural Revolution (1966–76), Xi’s father, Xi Zhongxun, was purged from the party and persecuted.

Xi spent his youth in the countryside, but later returned to Beijing and studied chemical engineering.

From 1978, under new leader Deng Xiaoping, China began a policy of “Reform and Opening Up”.

During the Reform Era, Xi worked on poverty alleviation projects in the south-eastern province of Fujian and began to rise through the ranks of the CCP. Under Hu Jintao, Xi became a party chief in the south-eastern province of Zhejiang and then party secretary in Shanghai.

Xi and Hu both emphasised the need for fast economic growth, but also demanded social harmony and did not tolerate dissent.

In 2013, Xi Jinping became President of the People’s Republic of China.

Xi changed the CCP’s approach to history by making more positive statements about Mao Zedong as a strong leader.

Xi became more assertive than previous leaders about China’s national identity and role in world affairs.

Xi’s signature policies include the Belt and Road Initiative, aimed at placing China at the centre of global trade and development, and climate change responses designed to position China at the forefront of green technology.

In 2018, the CCP updated China’s constitution to include Xi Jinping Thought as a guiding philosophy for the nation.

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Xi Jinping Thought includes a more assertive approach to global affairs, aimed at challenging what Xi sees as Western, US-dominated values and promoting alternatives aligned with China’s goals.

The west relies on expert China watchers to interpret changes in China and the role of Xi and other leaders.

China watchers argue that Xi has reshaped China through his Marxist nationalism.

China is gradually changing the framework of international relations.

Australian leaders, including Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese, have found it challenging to maintain mutually beneficial relationships with China under Xi.

How to answer an exam question Example question (4 marks)

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Describe the eras of Chinese history through which Xi Jinping lived before he became a senior politician.

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The key verb in this question is describe, which means you need to present the features and characteristics of the different eras.

Note that the question is about eras of Chinese history, so your answer should focus on these as much as possible.

Marking criteria Criteria •

Describes the features and characteristics of different eras of Chinese history through which Xi Jinping lived

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Communicates logically using historical terms and concepts

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Provides information about different eras of Chinese history through which Xi Jinping lived

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Communicates using some appropriate historical terms and concepts

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Provides some information about different eras of Chinese history through which Xi Jinping lived

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Communicates using some appropriate historical terms and/or concepts

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Provides some relevant information

Marks 4

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Sample response

Source 10.11.1 Video on answering the exam question

Xi Jinping was born during the Revolution Era (1949–66), which was characterised by oneparty rule of the economy and society under the Chinese Communist Party, and the supreme leader, Chairman Mao Zedong. During the Cultural Revolution era (1966–76), which featured violent attacks on dissenters and anything “Western”, and a cult of personality around Mao, members of Xi’s family were persecuted. Xi had his first experiences of politics during the Reform Era, under the leader Deng Xiaoping, which involved the partial relaxation of state controls over people’s lives and the opening up of the Chinese economy. While each era had a different focus and impact on people, they all had in common the supremacy of the Communist Party, which Xi joined and later led.

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Exam style short-answer questions As NESA reminds us, your answer will be assessed on how well you: • • •

demonstrate historical knowledge and understanding relevant to the question communicate ideas and information logically use historical terms and concepts appropriately.

Question 1 (4 marks) Describe how the Chinese Communist Party influenced Xi Jinping’s childhood and early career.

Question 2 (4 marks)

D I SA GI T M A PL LO E N C L H Y AP TE

Describe how Xi Jinping changed official approaches to history when he became the chairman of the Chinese Communist Party.

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Marking rubrics are available in the Interactive Textbook.

Question 3 (7 marks)

Explain why the perspectives of Source A and Source B would be useful to a historian studying Xi Jinping’s signature policies.

In your answer, integrate evidence from Source A and Source B.

Question 4 (10 marks)

How significant is Xi Jinping Thought in modern China?

In your answer, integrate evidence from Source C.

Exam-style extended-response questions As NESA reminds us, your answer will be assessed on how well you: • • • •

demonstrate historical knowledge and understanding relevant to the question use relevant evidence and interpretation to support your response communicate ideas and information using historical terms and concepts appropriately present a sustained, logical and cohesive response.

Marking rubrics are available in the Interactive Textbook.

Question 5 (25 marks)

a. Assess the significance of Xi Jinping’s policies for the global system of international relations.

OR

b. To what extent did Xi Jinping set different goals for China from the men who led China before him?

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Source booklet Source A

Bruno Maçães. 2018. Belt and Road: A Chinese World Order. London: Hurst, 13.

Source B

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The world after the Belt and Road will never be the same as it was before.

More than any other project, it has come to symbolize a new phase in China’s rise, the moment when Beijing embraces its role as a new superpower, capable of remaking the world economy and attracting other countries to its own economic orbit and ideological model.

Green and low-carbon transition is the trend of our time. While some country is acting against it, the international community should stay focused on the right direction … China will, by 2035 … reduce economy-wide net greenhouse-gas emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels, striving to do better; … and basically establish a climate-adaptive society.

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Xi Jinping. 2025. Address to the United Nations General Assembly, September.

Source C

[Xi] envisions a China that has regained centrality on the global stage: it has reclaimed contested territory, assumed a position of preeminence in the Asia Pacific, ensured that other countries have aligned their political, economic, and security interests with its own, provided the world’s technological infrastructure for the 21st century, and embedded its norms, values, and standards in international laws and institutions.

Elizabeth Economy. 2022. The World According to China. Cambridge: Polity Press, 2.

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