EFFECTS OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR SPILL OVER BORDERS

As of 1 June, there were already 4,169 verified deaths of civilians in Ukraine because of the Russian invasion; over 3.6 million refugees, meanwhile, had fled to Poland, Romania, Hungary, and even Russia because of the fighting. The price of oil, along with food, transportation, and other basic needs were skyrocketing. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the world economy will pay a “hefty price” for the Russia-Ukraine war, including weaker growth, steeper inflation, and potentially long-lasting damage to supply chains.

The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war shows how a clear and blatant attack on the sovereignty of another nation affects not only the countries directly involved, but also the rest of the world. In Asia, the war is also being seen as having parallels to what China has been doing in the West Philippine Sea.

As a response to these conflicts, the Center for Liberalism and Democracy, together with FNF Philippines, conducted the regional forum “Ukraine vs. Russia: Its Impact on the Region’s Political Economic Order” on 18 August via Zoom. Anchored on the idea of how Southeast Asian nations can protect themselves from the ongoing war, the discussions also covered the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific to contextualize the issue.

Among the forum panelists were academicians, politicians, and a journalist. Early on, Taiwanese legislator Chih-Cheng Lo highlighted deterrence as being “more important than defense when war breaks out.”

“To make sure we have an effective deterrence, there are two important components,” he said. “The first is credibility. Credibility means that we have to show that regional countries, especially democracies, will stand together. The second is capability. We have to build up our credible deterrence strategy.”

Also enriching the discussion were University of the Philippines Political Science Department Chairperson Herman Joseph S. Kraft, Tsukuba University professor Dr. Aki Sakabe-Mori, and International Studies Professor Sherlyn Mae F. Hernandez of De La Salle University-Manila. All three agreed that parallels could be drawn from the Ukraine vs. Russia war and the West Philippine Sea dispute, and that both should be perceived more as blatant attacks on sovereignty rather than attacks on democracy.

Among the other ideas that emerged during the discussions was, one arguing that instead of simply looking at both situations from political and economic standpoints, they should be perceived primarily as human-rights issues where the lives of citizens are at risk. And since the Russia-Ukraine war and the West Philippine Sea dispute are clear cases of the violation of freedom but not so much of democracy, a country’s non-democratic political structure may not necessarily mean it should be seen as supporting the Russian invasion.

One good example is Japan, which remains in support of the victims of the war while tiptoeing through other issues brought up by the war. SakabeMori noted, “Japan stands with Ukraine and aligns fully with United States and the G7, Australia, and other countries with shared common values, while it is carefully refraining from the framing of democracy versus autocracy in this ongoing war.”

As for the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, Professor Kraft pointed out how it seems to play safe on declaring support and/or condoning a country.

Kraft said that in his opinion, ASEAN could do better. Seconding his remarks was Professor Hernandez, who also observed that ASEAN seems to be slowpaced in achieving its vision.

Dennis Arroyo, former Director of National Planning and Policy Staff of the Philippines’ National Economic and Development Authority, for his part, said, “The Indo-Pacific framework includes these areas of cooperation: maritime cooperation, productivity, UN sustainable development goals, economic cooperation. There is nothing on peace-building. This should be included. Peace-building should be included in the Indo-Pacific framework.”

Rounding up the discussions was Filipino journalist John Nery, who highlighted the importance to understand the nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He remarked, “The way we define the nature of the war will help determine the means of the solution.”