ASSOCIATION PERSPECTIVES

by CCA Vice President of Government Affairs Kirk Wilbur

With a largely vote-by-mail election and an enormous electorate, California has been slow to tally the votes of the Nov. 3 General Election. In close races—like the battle over Proposition 15—it took a week or more for the Associated Press and other outlets to project a winner, and some races still hadn’t been called as of press time. Below is a recap of the election based on information available as of November 17, with approximately 95 percent of ballots counted.

Of greatest interest to CCA members, California voters rejected Proposition 15 by a margin of more than 65,000 votes, or approximately 4 percent of the total vote. While vote counts in the days after Election Day revealed a tight race, the Associated Press called the Proposition’s defeat on the evening of Nov. 10, one week after polls closed.

Proposition 15 had sought to roll back property tax limitations enshrined in 1978’s Proposition 13 by taxing commercial properties at current market value. The measure would have increased property taxes statewide by $11.5 billion. While proponents noted that agricultural land would be exempt from increased property taxes, Proposition 15 would have increased taxes on agricultural buildings and improvements: barns, feedlots and even fruit trees or vines would have incurred significantly higher taxes. CCA strongly opposed Proposition 15 and mounted a robust public outreach campaign to defeat the tax increase in the months leading up to the election.

And the efforts of California’s farmers and ranchers paid off!

According to Rob Lapsley, president of the California Business Roundtable and co-chair of the "No on Prop 15" campaign, “From day one, we knew that if voters understood the harm this deeply flawed tax hike would impose on California’s economy and its families, farmers and small businesses, voters would reject this ill-advised effort.”

CCA and farmers and ranchers throughout the state played an essential role in educating California voters about the Proposition’s potentially devastating consequences: forcing ranching families out of business, incentivizing development of open space and increasing food prices for California consumers.

By rejecting Proposition 15, California voters avoided those dire consequences. CCA thanks ranchers throughout the state for their grassroots efforts to marshal opposition to the flawed tax proposal.

Another proposition that wasn’t decided for more than a week was Proposition 19, which the Associated Press called in favor of the proponents on November 11. Proposition 19 will allow Californians who are over 8 California Cattleman December 2020 55, disabled or who are the victims of wildfires or other natural disasters to transfer the tax base of their primary residence to a replacement residence, and will require a tax reassessment for an inherited residence not used as the inheritor’s primary residence. CCA took no position on Proposition 19, but urged members to carefully consider its purported “Expan[sion of] tax benefits for transfers of family farms.” As of press time, the “yes” votes on Proposition 19 had an advantage of approximately 340,000 votes, leading by a margin of 51.1 percent to 48.9 percent.

In the California State Assembly, Republicans will gain a seat, though Democrats will continue to enjoy a supermajority in the lower chamber.

Democrats have gained at least two seats in the state’s upper chamber, with Democratic challengers Dave Min and Josh Newman defeating Republican incumbents Sen. John Moorlach and Sen. Ling Ling Chang, respectively. Races in Senate Districts 21 and 23 remain quite close as of press time, with the Republican candidate in each race holding the lead.

In Washington, D.C., Democrats will continue to hold a majority in the House of Representatives, though that majority has narrowed with Republicans picking up at least six House seats as of press time. In California, Republican challengers have regained at least two seats that flipped Democratic in the 2018 “blue wave” midterm election. Rep. Harley Rouda conceded defeat to Republican challenger Michelle Steel in California’s 48th Congressional District on November 10, and three days later incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros conceded to challenger Young Kim in the District 39 race.

A third potential Republican pickup among California’s Congressional delegation remains too close to call as of press time, with former Republican Congressman David Valadao 2,065 votes ahead as he seeks to reclaim his former District 21 seat from incumbent Democrat TJ Cox. Results in that race were delayed in part by a COVID-19 exposure that halted election canvassing at the Kings County Election Department for more than a week.

In California’s 25th Congressional District, Republican Mike Garcia—who won a May 12, 2020 special election for the seat vacated upon Democratic Representative Katie Hill’s resignation—was leading Democratic challenger Christy Smith by a mere 104 votes as of press time.

Also of note in California’s Congressional elections, former Congressman Darrel Issa has won the House seat vacated by Duncan Hunter, keeping the 50th District in Republican control.

An important House committee will experience a shakeup as a consequence of this year’s election: House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson (DMN7) lost his bid for reelection, meaning that the Ag Committee will see new leadership in the 117th Congress. Fresno-area Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA16) has announced his candidacy for the chairmanship, as has Rep. David Scott (D-GA13). A broad coalition of more than 60 California agricultural organizations—including CCA—has urged Speaker Nancy Pelosi to appoint Costa to the post.

Control of the U.S. Senate remains unclear, with both Senate races in Georgia set for a Jan. 5, 2021 runoff election after incumbent Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler both failed to secure at least 50 percent of the vote. If one or both incumbents win, Republicans will retain control of the Senate. If Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock both win their elections, the Senate will be split 50-50 with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris casting any tie-breaking votes.

Even in that worst-case-scenario for Republicans, however, it should be noted that moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (WV) has gone on record as opposing many legislative priorities of the more progressive wing of the Democratic Party (such as ‘packing’ the Supreme Court by increasing its size from nine to 13 justices). In short, regardless of the final composition of the Senate, the upper chamber will likely be a moderating influence on federal policy over the next two years.

Regardless of the final makeup of Congress, CCA stands ready to work with our national affiliates at the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and the Public Lands Council—as well as with California’s Congressional delegation—to advance CCA’s priorities before the legislature and the Biden Administration.

14TH ANNIVERSARY

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