Bi-annual leasing broker survey December 2020

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Research & Insight

Bi-annual leasing broker survey December 2020

The purpose of this survey is to provide a general market overview only. Although every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate, the BVRLA cannot accept any liability whatsoever for any inaccuracy contained within it, nor for any damage or loss, direct or indirect, which may be suffered as a result of any reliance placed upon the contents provided, whether arising in contract, tort or in any other way. Advice should always be obtained from your own professional advisers before committing to a specific action.

Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside


Research & Insight July to December 2020

LEASING BROKER / SMALL FLEET H2 2020

• • • •

The BVRLA broker channel fleet grew by 6% to 379,617 compared to the end of 2019. The total vehicle fleet size reached a new record in 2020 and is nearly three times the fleet size recorded in 2013. The proportion of new car BCH contracts with maintenance dropped in 2020 by four percentage points to 44%. New contracts for cars were down 9.5% year-on-year, but this represents a recovery in demand compared to even greater falls during H1 2020. • New contracts for vans fell 9.9% year-on-year. Key Findings (Cars) • • • •

New contracts for PCH were double those of BCH, but demand for both fell in 2020. The PCH car fleet share hit a new high in 2020; BCH a new low. The proportion of BCH maintained contracts fell to 44% for cars, while the proportion of PCH contracts remained steady at 29%. The proportion of regulated new BCH contracts fell during 2020.

Vans • • •

After faltering in H1 2020, the van sector returned to growth at the end of H2 2020, as PCH demand drove orders. The total LCV fleet has reached more than 100,000 vehicles for the first time, nearly triple its 2013 size. While the proportion of BCH on the overall fleet reached a new high, its share of new contracts stabilised in 2020 as PCH demand rose.

* In 2019 approximately 1/3 of the increase to the total broker fleet was due to business reorganisation and 2/3 due to market growth.

Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside


Research & Insight Vehicles on fleet

Vehicles on fleet

LCVS CARS

99,645 76,874

86,283

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

CARS

99,134 120,458 148,819 184,779 200,943 221,708 257,256 279,590

LCVs

35,840

ALL

134,974 164,086 208,006 261,653 287,226 316,205 356,901 379,617

100,027

94,497

43,628

59,187

76,874

86,283

94,497

99,645

100,027

59,187 35,840 99,134

43,628 120,458

2013

2014

148,819

2015

184,779

2016

200,943

2017

221,708

2018

257,256

2019

279,590

2020

New contracts

New contracts

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

CARS

38,726

53,604

63,179

81,974

70,861

80,235

86,161

77,985

LCVs

11,416

19,588

23,862

28,839

27,268

27,552

27,176

24,478

ALL

50,142

73,192

87,046 110,813 98,129 107,787 113,338 102,463

Net 2013 additions

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

LCVS 28,839

CARS

27,552

27,176 24,478

27,268 23,862 19,588 11,416 38,726

2013

81,974 53,604

2014

63,179

2015

2016

70,861

2017

80,235

2018

Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside

86,161

2019

77,985

2020

CARS

8,427

21,324

28,361

35,960

16,164

20,765

35,548

22,335

LCVs

3,329

7,788

15,559

17,687

9,409

8,214

5,148

382

ALL

11,756 29,112

43,920

53,647

25,573

28,979

40,696

22,717


Research & Insight

Cars on fleet

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

BCH

63,803

73,683

79,709

84,841

84,388

84,404

95,047

97,878

Finance lease

3,755

4,183

4,445

4,863

4,616

4,134

3,789

3,092

Business other*

567

604

641

675

610

500

519

1,157

BUSINESS ALL

68,125

78,470

84,795

90,379

89,614

89,038

99,355

102,127

PCH

25,381

36,111

57,572

87,619

104,828

126,451

151,979

172,620

Personal other*

5,628

5,877

6,452

6,781

6,501

6,219

5,922

4,843

PERSONAL ALL

31,009

41,988

64,024

94,400

111,329

132,670

157,901

177,463

ALL

99,134

120,458

148,819

184,779

200,943

221,708

257,256

279,590

Market share: cars on fleet by finance type BCH 64%

47% 39% 26% 10%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

BCH

23,403

30,562

28,706

31,808

27,761

26,235

28,550

25,126

Finance lease

1,162

1,706

1,585

1,489

1,198

857

768

698

Business other*

182

224

222

277

127

108

96

671

BUSINESS ALL

24,747

32,492

30,513

33,574

29,086

27,200

29,414

26,495

PCH

11,948

18,898

30,363

46,121

39,740

51,292

55,275

50,158

Personal other*

2,031

2,214

2,303

2,279

2,035

1,743

1,472

1,333

PERSONAL ALL

13,979

21,112

32,666

48,400

41,775

53,035

56,747

51,491

ALL

38,726

53,604

63,179

81,974

70,861

80,235

86,161

77,985

* Business other refers to contract purchase, credit hire and lease purchase. Personal other refers to HP and PCP.

Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside

30%

46%

Other 57%

59%

62%

42%

38%

37%

35%

61% 54%

2013

Cars: New contracts

PCH

52%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Market share: new contracts cars by finance type BCH PCH Other 60%

57%

56%

56%

39%

39%

64%

64%

64%

32%

33%

32%

48% 31%

9%

2013

35%

45%

8%

7%

5%

5%

3%

3%

3%

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020


Research & Insight LCVs on fleet

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

BCH

22,269

26,219

36,030

45,653

52,603

59,050

64,366

65,126

Finance lease

12,593

15,981

20,367

26,643

27,901

29,124

28,698

29,484

Business other*

809

1,099

1,908

2,609

2,833

2,704

2,633

2,624

BUSINESS ALL

35,671

43,299

58,305

74,905

83,337

90,878

95,697

97,234

PCH

124

303

864

1,953

2,935

3,606

3,944

3,928

45

26

18

16

11

13

4

4

PERSONAL ALL

169

329

882

1,969

2,946

3,619

3,948

3,932

ALL

35,840

43,628

59,187

76,874

86,283

94,497

99,645

101,166

Personal other

*

LCVs: New contracts

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

BCH

7,102

11,992

14,366

18,131

18,488

19,593

18,606

16,731

Finance lease

3,929

6,827

7,817

8,383

6,921

5,923

6,814

5,287

Business other*

288

554

1,042

995

682

630

587

548

BUSINESS ALL

11,319

19,373

23,225

27,509

26,091

26,146

26,007

22,567

PCH

83

201

608

1,327

1,177

1,404

1,165

1,910

*

14

14

29

3

0

2

4

2

PERSONAL ALL

97

215

637

1,330

1,177

1406

1169

1,912

ALL

11,416

19,588

23,862

28,839

27,268

27,552

27,176

24,478

Personal other

* Business other refers to contract purchase, credit hire and lease purchase. Personal other refers to HP and PCP.

Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside

Market share: LCVs on fleet by finance type BCH

Finance lease

Other

62%

60%

61%

61%

62%

65%

67%

59%

35%

37%

34%

35%

32%

31%

28%

26%

3%

3%

5%

6%

7%

7%

7%

7%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Market share: new contracts LCVs by finance BCH Finance lease Other type 62%

61%

60%

34%

35%

33%

63%

29%

68%

25%

71%

68%

68%

21%

25%

22%

3%

4%

7%

8%

7%

7%

6%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

10% 2020


Research & Insight MAINTAINED CONTRACTS 33% of the overall fleet and 29% of new contracts are maintained. Maintenance levels for cars under BCH dropped in 2020 by four percentage points to the lowest level since measurement for this figure began in 2016. Maintenance levels in new car PCH rose by 1%. Maintenance with BCH contracts for vans continued to fall, reaching the lowest level since this measurement began in 2016.

Total car contracts

2016

2017

2018

2019

202

BCH maintained

52%

52%

51%

53%

49

PCH maintained

25%

25%

26%

27%

28

21%

22

Other maintained

New car contracts Other

All cars on contract

New car contracts

35%

35%

Long term decline

Stable

2017

38%*

2018 36%*

2019 36%*

2017 35%*

2018 37%*

67%

PCH

29%

BCH

Maintained

71%

44% 0%

2019 35%*

33%

Non-maintained

56%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total LCV contracts

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

BCH maintained

42%

40%

40%

41%

38%

PCH maintained

14%

16%

16%

16%

14%

7%

4%

Finance lease (m)

All LCVs on contract

2017

39%*

New LCVs contracts

28%

12%

Decline

Decline

2018 38%*

2019

2017

39%*

37%*

2018 36%*

* revised from expanded survey of maintenance levels for all finance products.

Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside

13%

Other maintained

New LCV contracts

2019 34%*

Other Finance lease PCH BCH

83%

33% 36% 38% 0%

20%

17%

67% 64% 62% 40%

60%

Maintained Non-maintained 80%

100%


Research & Insight REGULATED CONTRACTS 56% of the overall fleet is regulated. The long-term growth in PCH is increasing the proportion of the fleet that is regulated. This is also starting to affect the LCV sector, where there has been a leap in demand for personal contracts in the past year.

Total car contracts

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

BCH regulated

10%

9%

9%

10%

10%

PCH regulated

100%

100%

100%

97%

100%

Other regulated

56%

54%

53%

52%

50%

New car contracts Other

50%

50%

PCH BCH

All cars on contract

67%

All LCVs on contract

24%

Non-regulated

93%

0%

Regulated

40%

Total LCV contracts

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

BCH regulated

19%

20%

19%

18%

16%

PCH regulated

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Finance lease (r)

36%

35%

34%

31%

31%

LCVs

Other regulated

60%

61%

68%

68%

68%

34%

New LCV contracts

68%

contracts

7%

0%

20%

New car contracts

New

100%

Other Finance lease PCH BCH

11% 23%

80%

89% 77% 100% 84%

16% 0%

Prepared by Research and Insight Manager, Phil Garthside

60%

20%

40%

60%

100%

Regulated 0% 80%

100%

Non-regulated


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