Turning Points: Global Agenda 2016

BusinessMirror Global Agenda 2016

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BusinessMirror Global Agenda 2016 Contents

7 From the Editor

By Serge Schmemann 8 Asean Economic Integration: Winners and Losers

By Henry Schumacher 14 Philippine Stock Market: Rewind and Fast-Forward

By John Mangun 18 Are the Best Things In Life Free?

26 The Evil That Cannot Be Left Unanswered

By Roger Cohen 30 Will Democracy Prevail?

Edited by Serge Schmemann 36 The Year In Photos

84 Living in the Cult of Likability

By Bret Easton Ellis 88 Artificial Intelligence: The End of Work?

By Ji Shisan 92 The Year In Cartoons 99 A Life Uprooted

By Okey Ndibe 106 Global Agenda 2016 108 The Future City in the New Normal

By Jaime Lerner 112 Building a Better Place Online

By Eric Schmidt 116 What Defines a Modern Warrior?

By Phil Klay

120 What If We Could Redesign Our DNA?

By Roger Mello 122 A Fast and Flat Fashion World

By Jeremy Langmead 126 The AlDub Nation: Creating Cultures and Market

By Tito Genova Valiente 130 Taking Philippine Investments to Greater Heights

By Adrian S. Cristobal & Rafaelita M. Aldaba 134 The Mobile Telecommunications Sector: A History

By Edgardo V. Cabarios 138 First Time Ever 146 Artist’s Lens 158 In Retrospect

BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business Ambassador Antonio L. Cabangon Chua Founder Publisher Editor in Chief Managing Editor Associate Editor News Editor City & Assignments Editor Online Editor Social Media Editor Research Bureau Head Creative Director Chief Photographer Chairman of the Board & Ombudsman President VP-Finance VP-Corporate Affairs VP Advertising Sales Advertising Sales Manager Group Circulation Manager

T. Anthony C. Cabangon Jun B. Vallecera Max V. de Leon Jennifer A. Ng Dionisio L. Pelayo Vittorio V. Vitug Ruben M. Cruz Jr. Angel R. Calso Dennis D. Estopace Eduardo A. Davad Nonilon G. Reyes Judge Pedro T. Santiago (Ret.) Benjamin V. Ramos Adebelo D. Gasmin Frederick M. Alegre Marvin Nisperos Estigoy Aldwin Maralit Tolosa Dante S. Castro

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6 Turning Points

Stacy Langavia/The New York Times

From the Editor

A

By Serge Schmemann

Russian friend recently shared a witty observation about his country: “In two years, everything changes; in 200 years, nothing changes.” That is certainly true for Russia, a nation whose every lurch forward seems to leave it farther behind. Is it also true for what we call progress? Are all the dazzling technological inventions and social transformations of our time nothing more than superficial variations on an unchanging template?

Certainly the pace of change in life today is dizzying, for better and for worse. We are in incessant contact with each other and can instantly access all the knowledge accumulated across human history; we will soon be transported in driverless cars and healed by robot physicians. On the social front, to be gay or transgendered is ceasing to be a curse of Cain … Yet it is also true that the more rapidly we move forward, the greater the resistance. At the most terrifying end of the reactionary spectrum, fanatical Islamists adopt cutting-edge technology for their murderous rush to an idealized past. And even in a bastion of prosperity, literacy and freedom like the United States, there is a bizarre and spreading resistance to science, whether on climate change, vaccine or evolution.

So does that mean, as King Solomon opined almost three millennia ago, that in the end there is nothing new under the sun, that the frenetic pace of invention and evolution of the 21st century ultimately amounts to been-

there-done-that? I know that when I stand on a cliff over the sea on an autumn day mesmerized by the ceaseless crash of waves below, it is hard to resist the wise monarch’s conclusion that “It has been already in the ages before us.”

But then I remember that we are causing these seas to rise dangerously, and the fish to vanish, and I wonder, will it really be the same in the ages after us?

These are the questions we ponder in our annual selection of Turning Points, cataloging the ideas, trends or inventions that will shift our trajectory and make 2016 different from 2015. Not surprisingly, several of our authors explore the challenges of the awesome, rapidly evolving universe of the Internet: Eric Schmidt of Google on keeping the Web a “safe and vibrant place”; the novelist Bret Easton Ellis on the “reputation economy” fostered by online ratings; the science blogger Ji Shisan on the rise of robots; and the fashion journalist Jeremy Langmead on the upended world of style. From the non-digital world, the

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urban planner Jaime Lerner looks at the future of the cities where ever more of us live, while the economist Sergei Guriev offers the heartening observation that democracy seems to carry economic benefits. And there are the wars that turn whole populations into refugees, of which the novelist Okey Ndibe and the former warrior Phil Klay write. And much, much more.

My Russian friend and Solomon are right, of course, in the sense that in the end we remain bound by the same passions, the same natural rhythms and mortality as all our ancestors were. But the paradox is that part of that constant is an insatiable curiosity and an extraordinary ingenuity that forever seek to channel those passions, manipulate the rhythms and defy the mortality. Change is in our genes: We and our fellow creatures are programmed to forever evolve in order to survive. And when we mess up, we change again, and again, and again. Nothing new under the sun? We’ll change that, too. n

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ASEAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION: WINNERS AND LOSERS

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By Henry J. Schumacher

or many years, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) leaders in business and governments have been aware of the target line for economic integration: January 1, 2016. With this important date having arrived, supported by the official launch of the Asean Economic Community in Kual Lumpur a few weeks ago, the question arises whether countries and sectors, governments and business, large corporations, and small and medium enterprises, are ready to benefit from and to face the challenges of economic integration.

It is fair to say that the countries and regions around the world have taken the creation of the single Asean market with 600 million people and a combined GDP of $2.1 trillion seriously and have studied the opportunities Asean offers and are looking at the best entry points into the region. At the same time, the Asean member-states have encouraged their business sectors to get ready.

The name of the game is competitiveness. Philippine companies, like all firms operating in Asean, must find the means of enlarging their economic position, alone or in partnership with other regional or international firms. In this process, it is essential that we look at winning sectors and at sectors that will be challenged.

Let’s look at some sectors: Transport Southeast Asia is not only a vast and developing market, it is also bound by the dynamic economies of China, India, South Korea and Australia.

Facilitation of trade is vital for all Asean countries, which occupy an area at the heart of these leading global manufacturers. Trade among membercountries themselves is steadily increasing with intra-trading expected to increase to 30 percent of total trade. As a result, transport and logistics have become big business in Southeast Asia. Their total combined revenues

Turning Point IS ASEAN ready to benefit from and to face the challenges of economic integration?

Anton Balazh|dreamstime.com

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Frameangel | Dreamstime.com

ASEAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

reached $140.8 billion. For the Philippines this means to accelerate the implementation of transport infrastructure; the Philippine government has to address cost, quality and competitiveness issues in domestic logistics.

Aviation The aim of the Asean Single Aviation Market is to foster a competitive airline industry and propel the region’s carriers into the global market. It is a strategy that seeks to increase market access, establish central authorities and industrial standards, for a sector that is undergoing unprecedented expansion. Open skies will

yield a host of opportunities for Asean members by removing obstacles to growth, such as restrictive airspace and route constraints. In the Philippines, the decision has to be made to expand Clark and modernize the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (Naia), provide nightlanding equipment to 14 airports, and improve civil-aviation regulation. This has to include the implementation of the two-airport strategy (Naia and Clark) and move budget airlines/budget flights from the Naia to Clark. In order to move passengers from Manila to Clark, initially a fast-transit bus system should be considered, while making the rail link possible.

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ICT Sustained investment in information and communication technology (ICT) is proving to be one of the most potent drivers of development for emerging economies. The strong focus on ICT development is having a significant impact on the Asean region. There is a master plan to deliver ICT as an engine of growth for all member-states and to establish the region as a global communications hub.

The Philippine telecoms and IT market is estimated to contribute more than 10 percent to the country’s GDP, boosted by the exponential development of mobile telephony. The

versal coverage, including the Philippines.

An integrated Asean market in health care consisting of harmonized standards, registration and evaluation, mutual recognition of qualifications and cross-border cooperation greatly expand regional health-care facilities, stimulating growth of a vital sector. International research-based companies, active in the health-care sector, are ready to be part of the solution to bring health care to Filipino patients fast and effectively.

Philippines is a leader in business-process management (BPM) and will have to improve its telecoms infrastructure/broadband if it wishes to maintain that position.

Health care Health spending in Southeast Asia is expected to double in real terms over the next decade, outstripping GDP growth, as governments seek to improve standards and widen the scope of care available. There are wide variations in the region. Several Asean members have passed laws to establish national health insurance systems and mandated uni-

port services, engineering design and software development. As the Philippines moves from BPO to knowledge-process outsourcing, closer cooperation between academic institutions, the government and the private sector is needed to develop the labor force required for that shift.

Services Within Asean, the services sector accounts for 40 percent to 70 percent of each economy’s GDP. Education, the upgrading of local skills, infusion of foreign skills (which will lead to mutual technology/knowledge transfer), and overall productivity increases are the cornerstone of a competitive economy.

Unemployment starts to be a problem where there is no vibrant services sector (without underestimating the employment potential in manufacturing and especially in agriculture/food processing). Further, it is the services sector which can tap new areas of growth and development—especially in creative industries, moving from raw creativity to real innovation.

The Philippines has a great chance to take dominant positions in BPM (we are already No. 1 in voice in the world) and in various creative sectors, from animation to game development to digital content and digital designs).

The services sector will have to be watched carefully, given the free movement of people under the AEC; for the labor-rich Philippines there are winners—Filipinos will find employment in many countries within Asean, and losers—companies in the Philippines may be faced with a brain drain while their industries expand.

Agriculture In 2013 the agricultural sector contributed 14.3 percent of Indonesia’s GDP, 38 percent of Myanmar, 48 percent of Vietnam, 34 percent of Cambodia, 24.8 percent in Lao People’s Democratic Republic and 11.2 percent in Malaysia and the Philippines, respectively.

The share for the Philippines should be much higher if inclusive growth is going to happen; more efforts must be undertaken to empower the farming community and correct the shortcomings of the agrarian land reform.

The sector’s output derives almost entirely from smallholdings, which dominate the region’s agricultural landscape. Many farms occupy less than 2 hectares and have low access to technology, information, finance and, crucially, to markets. The problem is that poor techniques and low-grade inputs, including seeds, lowers productivity, while farmers struggling to survive are driven to overculture their lands and deplete scarce water resources as a result.

The consequences are that while millions have been lifted out of poverty, a third of the region’s population still lives on little more than $2 a day, which represents a massive economic and social challenge for governments in the region.

The integration of the agri sector will be challenging with winners and losers. The Philippines will not be among the winners in the short term.

Education According to the Word Bank, development of higher education in low- and middleincome Asean countries has the potential to dramatically lift productivity and competitiveness by providing the high-level skills and research necessary for innovation and growth.

Higher education can only be developed if earlier educational stages are sound. As Asean becomes increasingly connected to advanced global knowledge-based economies, it has to create a class of highly educated professionals to compete with foreign workers in those high-end sectors.

The Philippines, with its pool of Englishspeaking workers, vies with India as the world’s largest business-process outsourcing (BPO) industry that has developed from call centers to provide a range of back-office sup-

Manufacturing In the last 25 years Asean countries have become established as a preeminent destination for global manufacturers seeking a wellresourced, cost-effective manufacturing base for garments and textiles, electronics and a huge variety of branded goods that stock the shelves of retailers in Europe and North America.

There is a developing strategy among many Asean states to move from low-cost manufacturing and become providers of value-added products in many sectors, involving ship and drilling rigs, automotive, mineral smelting and refining, biomedical and biochemistry, petrochemicals, health care, agro-biotechnology and many more.

The promise of a harmonized customs system between Asean countries offers opportunities for the integration of supply chains and

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ASEAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

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unhindered movement of goods between member-states. This has positive implications for a range of industries, such as garments, footwear, textiles, electronics, and the automotive and food sectors. Integration is also proving a powerful magnet for foreign investment, as mentioned above.

Food & Beverage Almost all countries in Asean are experiencing high economic growth accompanied by rapid changes in the consumption pattern.

A growing middle class is developing preferences for food and beverages that are more convenient and packaged well, especially juices and premium beverage alcohols.

Through Asean’s Economic Community blueprint, the seven priority areas for food, agriculture and forestry include: • Strengthening food security; • Facilitating trade in agriculture and forestry products; • Generating and transferring technology to increase productivity and develop agribusiness; • Developing rural communities and human resources; • Involving and investing in the private sector; • Managing and conserving natural resources for sustainable development; and • Strengthening Asean cooperation in addressing regional and international issues.

The Philippines must take the agri-food supply chain much more seriously and develop strategies to increase farm productivity through mechanization, consolidation of farmland and the application of new technologies.

Consumers The ever-growing diverse consumer market of Asean, with a combined GDP of $2.4 trillion, will be the fourth-largest economic region in the world by 2050, according to research conducted by McKinsey&Co. (McKinsey Global Institute analysis). The growth of the region’s various economies and its rising middle class speak volumes for the future as companies can tap into expanding opportunities.

The report said that about 54 percent of the region’s GDP is generated from 142 cities, which will be home to about 54 million more people by 2025, creating an even larger consumer market. The economic expansion of the region has also helped in many parts of the region lower the extreme poverty level, with 67 million households in Asean now enjoying income levels that allow them to make discretionary purchases. By 2025, McKinsey expects the size of this consumer-driven market to almost double to 125 million households.

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However, McKinsey cautioned that investors, as well as analysts, need to take into account the differing characteristics of each of the 10 Asean member-states, including culture, language and religion, as well as economic output, GDP per capita and the market dominance of large conglomerates in most of the Asean countries. Given the great range in average incomes, investment incentives offered and logistics infrastructure in place (or not), investors have the option to choose the country where they see the best opportunities and apply appropriate market strategies to meet their goals.

Tourism The travel sector is helped by growing connectivity in the region, which helps to stimulate tourism. As a result, the travel and tourism industry is seen as crucially important for development; tourism is vital for the socioeconomic benefits as it promotes people-topeople connectivity, one of the key strategies toward achieving the Asean community, starting 2016.

Asean attracted 90 million visitors in 2013, an increase of 12 percent from 2012. This is a precursor to what lies ahead for the region, a robust tourism economy. It is human capital that is at the core of this sustainable success.

Income received from international tourism is at an estimated $21 billion for Malaysia in 2013, $18.9 billion for Singapore, $9.3 billion for Indonesia, $7.5 billion for Vietnam, $4.7 billion for the Philippines, $2.7 billion for Cambodia and a huge $42 billion for Thailand.

This places Thailand among the top 10 countries in the world for international arrivals, and for earnings from its tourism industry.

In conclusion, there are definitely more winners than losers. And where challenges exist, governments and the private sector should get together to find solutions without delay jointly. AEC is a big adventure.

Henry Schumacher is the vice president for external affairs of the European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines (ECCP).

ECCP is a bilateral foreign chamber that promotes European interests in the Philippines, as well as Philippine interests in Europe.

Nonie Reyes

14 Turning Points

Philippine Stock Market: Rewind And Fast-Forward

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By John Mangun

he Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) has been on a roll since it bottomed out in January 2009. The composite index has moved from 1,825 to its April 2015 historic high at 8,100.

Sure, you can say the same thing about almost every stock market. But this is the Philippines, the country that held the title of “Basket case of Asia” for decades. This is the country you might only think of when you forgot to pay your cell-phone bill and need to call for a payment extension. The Philippines is not even a member of the Group of 20 bloc of nations, which includes economic powerhouses like Argentina and Brazil.

However, while the world was looking in another direction, the Philippines quietly became one of the strongest economies on the planet.

In the last 10 years, the government finally put its financials in order and took the government debt-to-GDP percentage from 63 down to 45. The budget deficit is 0.60 percent of the nation’s GDP, down from 4 percent in 2010.

These silly numbers are meaningless, except they show the government is no longer running with damaged finances; and that’s good.

The government, through two administrations, has done its job of getting and keeping its fiscal situation strong. Nonetheless, one critical key to the Philippines’s economic success is its central bank—the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). The PSE reached its historic high in 2015 on the back of the BSP doing

Turning Point

something absolutely unthinkable—interest rates were raised, not lowered—in September 2014 in response to increasing inflation.

The annual inflation rate fell from near 5 percent down to the most recent 1.1 percent.

Lower crude oil prices made a significant contribution to lower inflation, but the growth in the amount of money in circulation—which can also cause inflation—decreased substantially.

For the past three years, self-proclaimed economic experts have been calling for a collapse in the Philippine economy and stock market. The BSP has constantly adjusted lending policies to ensure a property-price bubble would not occur. With the exception of real estate and automobiles, this is a cashbased economy with household debt at a minuscule 6 percent of the economy.

The strength of the Philippine banking system is the lifeblood of the economy. With lending practices that would make any extremely careful and frugal business owner both proud and envious, total Philippine banks’ exposure to bad global debt when Lehman Brothers collapsed was an insignificant $50 million. As one bank president said about financial derivatives: “If we don’t understand it, we do not invest in it.”

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while the world was looking in another direction, the Philippines quietly became one of the strongest economies on the planet.

However, since the stock market hit the historic high in April, the composite index is down some 16 percent.

Both local and foreign investors pulled back on the overhang of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Economic growth, primarily because of erratic and unpredictable government project spending, has been lower than in both 2013 and 2014.

The stock market broke substantially lower in August with the collapse of the Chinese stock markets, but so far have held above levels that would have pushed prices in to “bear market” territory. Since then, the market has gone sideways, although within a fairly large

PHILIPPINE STOCK MARKET

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4-percent trading range. During this time, average daily peso value trading volume is down about 25 percent from the same period in 2014 showing lower investor interest.

The Philippines goes to the polls in May 2016. While politics rarely affects the local stock market, this is the most contentious election in three decades with the outcome impossible to forecast. However, it is almost outside the realm of possibility that the government will change course on its path of fiscal responsibility.

Perhaps, at least as significant as any external factor, is that the gamingresort industry, with several companies listed on the PSE, has been a complete disappointment—near disaster—in terms of both revenues and earnings.

Initial public offerings (IPOs) have always been an important part of PSE trading. New listings in 2015 were meager at best. But 2016 could be a boom time for IPOs as Malaysia AirAsia Berhad CEO Tony Fernandes said AirAsia Philippines will come to the local market. IPOs create enthusiasm, and that is what the PSE needs.

For the gaming issues, 2016 is going to be a make-or-break year. Either their business model of relying on Chinese gamblers, who have not been coming, is going to change or these companies are pretty much doomed for the medium term. They have been hit by extremely bad timing.

Consumer stocks in the Philippines have always been hot. Investors react quickly and favorably to new sources of earnings stream mainly through new products. RFM Corp. stock boomed on Magnum ice-cream bars. Universal Robina Corp. was the best-performing issue in 2013 and 2014 with the introduction of the C2 soft drink.

But 2015 was boring. These companies increased both revenues and earnings, but investors also want some thrills. There just has to be a new snack food waiting to be invented. Cakes of dehydrated milk curd from cows, yaks or camels are a big hit in Mongolia. Who knows what the possibilities might be?

Philippine property developers are probably the most criticized companies in the stock market. Yes, valuations are high by traditional standards. Yet, they just keep making money. Property price bubbles for a variety of reasons are happening all over the world. But Philippine companies are always evolving to be more profitable. Fifty percent of major developer Megaworld’s income now comes from rentals, not from sales. Ayala Land is building huge mixed-use projects. SM Prime Holdings has its condoswith-a-mall project model down to a science.

Are you looking for a depressed sector with upside opportunity? Here it is. The Philippine telecoms industry is ready for a big shakeup not only from the potential entry of Australian Telstra, but because people are ready for better and high-quality service and are able to pay for it.

The broad market will probably end the year at least slightly negative from 2014’s close. The Chinese lunar calendar calls 2016 the Year of the Fire Monkey. So we can probably expect the local stock market to be wild, impulsive, and yet hope for the intelligence and creativity that monkeys also exhibit. Either way, there will be many profitable opportunities if—like the monkey—you are nimble enough to seize them at the right time. n

Nonie Reyes

John Mangun has been a regular Philippine newspaper columnist, writing about the Philippine economy, business and stock market since 1996.

He writes a column, “Outside the Box,” for the BusinessM irror . In 2008 he started providing stock-trading advice and recommendations to subscribers of his PSE Strategy Guide through his web site MangunOnMarkets.com.

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The Big Question

Are the best things in life free?

AN INTERNATIONAL ROSTER OF THINKERS ANSWERS THE BIG QUESTION: ARE THE BEST THINGS IN LIFE FREE? Everybody says that the best things in life are free. But if that’s the case, why are we so rarely satisfied with life’s necessities—along with sunshine, love and the stars above? Reflecting the paradox, the designer Coco Chanel is reputed to have said, “The best things in life are free. The second-best things are very, very expensive.”

Do you agree? What in your experience are the best and second-best things, and what have they brought to your life?

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Coco Chanel in 1936.

Lipnitzki / Roger-Viollet via The New York Times

“The best things in life are free. The second-best things are very, very expensive.”–COCO CHANEL

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Rebecca Smeyne

The Big Question

Mei Yuangui

Richard Hell

Yao Chen The best things in life really are free. They are indispensable and always with us, like air, sunlight and water. We pay them little attention, taking them for granted. Only when you are about to lose something — when your eyesight goes dim, your health begins to fade or the natural resources you rely upon grow scarce or are polluted — do you start to realize how precious it was.

The second-best, most priceless thing, I think, is my acting career — which can’t be measured in dollars. It was simply destiny.

Many young people who are just starting out say that they are willing to do anything to attain success, but I wouldn’t have been entitled to achieve my dreams if I had pursued my art at the cost of my health, for example, or if I had been willing to cast any of the other “best things” aside.

Often luck is a big factor, and so if you don’t reach such a goal, it doesn’t reflect on you.

It is wonderful when such dreams come true. I am so grateful.

Yao Chen is a Chinese actress and activist.

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My initial reaction to this question is that nothing is free. Even the sun causes cancer.

Water is getting more and more expensive.

Everybody tells you that marriage is work. I feel lucky that my needs are few. It is really good to feel loved and to love, and that doesn’t cost anything. The other thing I like is art, meaning books and movies and paintings — museums — and music, and that is not too expensive either.

I have a prejudice against expensive things. Usually they’re about status or snobbery — that’s what I think Coco Chanel is actually talking about, even if she’d deny it.

First-rate examples of most nice things can be found very cheaply if you trust your own sensibility. (Not to be too hard on Coco — she was a good businesswoman who priced the fruits of her talents dearly; it was in her interests to promote the costly.)

Also, I’ve learned that once you get what you want, you will just want either a greater amount of it, or you will want something else. The best thing to have is a vocation — to like doing something rather than having something. Because then the wanting more is just about wanting to be able to do it better, and that actually pays off.

Richard Hell is an American singer, songwriter and writer. His new book is Massive Pissed Love: Nonfiction 2001-2014.

The Big Question Karl Lagerfeld Chanel was right: The second-best things in life are very expensive — because people will often pay more for what they don’t need than for what they need.

Luxury is often judged on moral grounds, but if you think economically, there are great benefits. It helps to make money go around, bringing dollars out of the pockets of the rich and becoming a source of craftsmanship.

It’s a very good thing when a hotel is able to attract clients who are ready to pay $80,000 a night for a suite, because that provides a living for so many: the workers who built the suite, the architects who designed the hotel, the artisans who made the furniture, the staff who work there. There is also great pride in such work — that suite is a work of art in everyday use, stocked with custom-made and beautiful furniture.

Karl Lagerfeld

Karl Lagerfeld is the creative director of Chanel, Fendi and his eponymous label.

The New York Times

Yanis Varoufakis The very best thing in life, happiness, can only be a byproduct of something that’s authentically good (e.g., a kind deed, a good night’s sleep, love) and is absent from any market. The second-best things, to which we turn out of impatience or despair, are pricey because no price can approximate the value of the best things.

Trying to replace authentic happiness with some purchased object or service is the equivalent of substituting a sleeping pill-induced stupor for a good night’s sleep. In the 19th century, some American journals published this definition: “Happiness is like a butterfly, which when pursued seems always just beyond your grasp; but if you sit down quietly, may light upon you.” Ceasing this materialistic pursuit costs nothing at all!

If the pursuit of happiness is condemned to be self-defeating, what should our guide be? The optimist in me believes that there is something innate in humans that, like the mechanism that prompts sunflowers to follow the sun across the sky, can help unleash our creative side. For the hell of it. With happiness the unintended byproduct, the butterfly that sits softly on our shoulder.

Alas, the Sirens of daily toil can distract us and turn us into consumers who like what they buy, buy what they think they like, and end up bored and dissatisfied — permanently unable to specify the nature of their discontent and living confirmations of Mark Twain’s point about the “limitless multiplication of unnecessary necessities.”

On the other hand, Dorothy Parker said that we ought to “Take care of the luxuries and the necessities will take care of themselves.” Of course, necessities take care of themselves only for those people who belong to the tiny segment of society where privilege reproduces itself.

A civilized society provides everyone with the conditions that will give them the freedom vigorously and creatively to pursue their own goals. But for this to happen, each must have liberty from fear, hunger and exploitation — as well as, according to Virginia Woolf, a “room of one’s own.”

Yanis Varoufakis is a politician, an academic economist and Greece’s former finance minister.

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Ad, p23

Vlad Loktev

The Big Question

I’ve never been much of a materialist. I lived in the small, Soviet apartment of my youth long after I could afford not to. If you were to visit my home in Moscow now, you’d see that it basically resembles a nice hotel with a nondescript resident: There’s no great artwork, no Faberge eggs in sight! Only me, usually lounging in my Brooklyn Nets track suit. (Cost: $95!)

The way I see it, the “second-best things” or very expensive things are only worthwhile if they serve a utilitarian purpose. Sailing makes me seasick, so I have a yacht but enjoy it only because it lets me jet-ski. Getting better at the sport is a personal goal that I work hard at.

The best thing about the yacht is free — the satisfaction of having risen to a new challenge and mastered a new move (which is especially difficult if you’re 6’8”!). This is something that no one can do for me.

I couldn’t care less about the yacht, but I value my personal growth and am happy to invest in it – along with the occasional fine wine.

Mikhail Prokhorov is a Russian billionaire and former presidential candidate, and owns the Brooklyn Nets basketball team.

Youri Lenquette

Mikhail Prokhorov

Youssou N’Dour I was so fortunate to have been given a voice that appeals to people. To be able to flourish and find my fans when so many people are unable to pursue their dream jobs was a divine blessing.

Such a gift can be developed further, but it can’t be repaid or bought: Isn’t that evidence that the best things in life are free?

One of the best things in my life is when I see an expression of excited happiness on the face of an audience member at one of my concerts. I may not know his name, but we share a true communion! Or my 3 year-old-son’s smile when he sees me—he always runs to me and jumps up to hug me so tenderly. Or when a stranger on the street says hello, which gives us both a feeling of happiness for the rest of the day.

If love is a gift of the self, that excited look, that sincere smile, that greeting prove that the best things in life are free. If you’re ever in doubt about it, hold your breath for as long as you can, then inhale and exhale the oxygen that Mother Nature gives us, on the house. The best things in life are available to those who take the time to observe and enjoy them.

Youssou N’Dour is a Senegalese vocalist, songwriter and politician.

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Justin Poland/The Society Management

Andreja Pejic Coco Chanel was right. The best things in life are free, because human interaction is the basis of happiness — the feeling that you, in union with other humans, are taking part in actions that benefit the world and humanity in one way or another.

In our society, social relations between human beings are subdued to economic relations between goods and services. This leads to people being alienated from what they produce and also from each other. The ideological nature placed on merchandise suggests that the more of it we acquire, the happier we will be. But anyone who has experienced the limited and short-lived gratification of purchasing a coveted item knows that this is simply not the case. In fact, the more things we have, the less we are able to even feel that instant satisfaction.

Only when the best things life are fulfilled can we focus on the second best — the products, knowledge and experiences that provide ease, beauty, creativity and enlightenment. Sadly, such things are very expensive and enjoyed only by a minority, which generally expects the second best things to make up for the lack of the first.

Andreja Pejic is an Australian model, and the first openly transgender woman to become the face of a major makeup brand.

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The Evil That Cannot Be Left Unanswered

N

By Roger Cohen | The New York Times

EW YORK—Just outside Diyarbakir in southeastern Turkey, there is a refugee camp where more than 2,700 Yazidis languish in makeshift tents more than a year after being driven out of northern Iraq by Islamic State fanatics.

26 Turning Points

THE QUESTION OF WHETHER OR NOT THE ISLAMIC STATE IS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO WESTERN SOCIETIES IS THE CENTRAL ISSUE THAT LOOMS OVER THE COMING YEAR.

Turning Point ISIS strikes targets in Paris, bringing its fight to the West.

The Islamic State group has revived the practice of slavery, using radical theology to justify the systematic rape of women and girls it labels “infidels.” A 12-year-old girl from the Yazidi minority at the refugee camp where she and her family now live in Qadiya, Iraq. She says that she was raped by an Islamic State fighter.

Mauricio Lima/The New York Times

I was there recently, chatting with a couple who showed me photos on a mobile phone of a man who was beheaded in their village.

“They are slaughterers,” said Anter Halef, a proud man stripped of hope. In a corner sat his 16-year-old daughter, crying. I asked her why. “We just ran from the war and …” Feryal murmured. Uncontrollable sobbing swallowed the rest of her sentence. I had seldom

seen such undiluted grief etched on a young face. Life had been ripped out of her even before she had begun to live.

The Yazidis, a religious minority viewed by the Islamic State jihadis as devil-worshipers, constitute a small fraction of the 2.2 million refugees who have fled to Turkey from the Syrian war and from the spillover violence in Iraq. The United States Holocaust Memo-

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rial Museum has described the killing of Yazidis as an act of genocide.

Across the wide area of Syria and Iraq that it controls, the Islamic State group enacts its nihilistic death cult drawn from a medievalist reading of the Koran. They slit throats at public executions, butcher “infidel” communities like the Yazidis en masse and turn women and children into sex slaves as they build a self-

The Evil That Cannot Be Left Unanswered

The Islamic State militants have set up an organized slave trade, transferring ownership through contracts. A Libyan man gave this “Certificate of Emancipation� to a 25-year-old Yazidi woman who had been his slave. He explained that he was planning to carry out a suicide bombing, so he was setting her free. Mauricio Lima/The New York Times

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styled caliphate based on oil revenue, absolutist zealotry and digital slickness.

From time to time the group exports the terror it finances with oil revenues from its sprawling fiefdom. The downing of a Russian passenger jet with 224 people on board and the random slaughter in Paris of 130 people enjoying a Friday night out, and the worst terrorist attack on American soil since 9/11, in San Bernardino, California, put an end to the complacent nostrum that the Islamic State was a local threat.

Nobody can switch off the Islamic State blockbuster.

Its magnetism is undeniable. The group traffics in movie images whose effect is at once riveting and disturbing. In an environment of growing unease, rightist politicians like Marine Le Pen in France or Donald Trump in the United States find their nationalist messages resonate. It’s already clear that the 2016 American election will not be politics as usual. Fear and its other face, belligerence, will be front and center.

How bad that gets may depend on what the Islamic State does next. A whole relativist school has emerged that’s inclined to belittle the militants as a small Internetsavvy bunch of thugs, a “J.V. team,” as President Obama once called them, whose importance we only magnify if we confront them with the means they themselves use against the West—all-out war, that is.

For this school of thought, massive retaliation is precisely what the jihadis want; it will drive recruitment.

Better to exercise the Obama doctrine of restraint. After the Paris killings, Vice President Joe Biden declared: “I say to the American people: There is no existential threat to the United States. Nothing ISIS can do could bring down the government, could threaten the way we live.”

Nothing? Try saying that to the people of Brussels, in near lockdown for several days after the Paris attacks. Or the people of San Bernardino, where one perpetrator of the mass shooting, Tashfeen Malik, had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State.

The central question looming over the coming year is whether or not the Islamic State is an existential threat to Western societies, and by extension whether or not it can be allowed a continued hold on the territory it uses to marshal that threat.

Today, the Islamic State’s capital of Raqqa, much closer to Europe than the mountains of Tora Bora in Afghanistan, is tolerated as a terrorist haven, whereas alQaeda’s Afghan sanctuary was shut down by military force after the attacks on New York and Washington. It is as if the metastasizing jihadi ideology of which the Islamic State is the latest and most potent manifestation has sapped the West’s will.

At year’s end, for the first time, in some polls, a majority of Americans favored the use of ground forces against the Islamic State—a policy rejected by President Obama, although he called in a speech to the nation after the San Bernardino attacks for Congress to give authorization to the use of military force against the terrorists.

President François Hollande declared after the Paris attacks that France is now at war with the Islamic State and that far greater urgency must be brought to the fight.

But he has been a lone voice. So far, the Obama adminis-

tration prefers to believe that its air-campaign strategy is working and that, post-Iraq, putting military forces on the ground is folly.

I do not see how the Islamic State can be seen as anything other than an existential threat to Western societies.

It stands for the destruction of all the Western freedoms —from the ballot box to the bed—that grew out of the Enlightenment and the rejection of religion as the ordering reference of society. It would take humanity back to the Middle Ages and target every apostate for destruction.

The wait-them-out, relativist school has at the very least to clarify why it is confident that the militants will not use the land they hold and the oil revenues they amass to develop weapons of mass destruction, including chemical weapons, or to launch a devastating cyber-attack on the West. It needs to explain why it believes time is on our side.

Freedom is not for everyone. The road to Raqqa is in many ways the road from freedom’s burden—from personal choice and its dilemmas to submission to an allencompassing Islamist ideology. If the free world and potential allies from the region are to fight this magnetism, they must rouse themselves from liberty’s consumerist drug.

For evil, unmet, propagates. To allow the Islamic State to consolidate its hold over territory and minds over the coming year is to invite, or at least to accept, an inevitable replay of the Paris or the San Bernardino slaughters.

It is to accept that the Syrian debacle will worsen for another year. And that, in turn, will further exacerbate the anxiety and fears on which nationalist, often Islamophobic, politicians in Europe and the United States thrive.

At the Yazidi refugee camp, Anter Halef said to me, “We no longer have a life in this world. It’s empty.” He was broken, but at least, unlike his children, he had lived his life. “ISIS has no religion,” he went on. “No sane man would slaughter a child. In one night, they killed 1,800 people.”

Since we spoke, Kurdish and Yazidi fighters have retaken the town of Sinjar, the area that the Halef family comes from. The Kurds are investigating a mass grave said to contain the remains of older women that the Islamic State, which had held the area since August 2014, did not want to use as sex slaves.

Perhaps the Halefs will be able to return one day to Sinjar, the scene of these abominations. By my impression was that, for the teenage Feryal Halef at least, there was no road back.

I do not know precisely what had happened to her but she had been destroyed, just as the journalist James Foley had been before he was beheaded in August 2014. I will never forget that young Yazidi woman’s eyes, turned into empty vessels. They demanded that humanity rouse itself. n

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Roger Cohen is a columnist for The New York Times. His most recent book is The Girl from Human Street: Ghosts of Memory in a Jewish Family.

The CONVERSATION

Will Democracy 30 Turning Points

IN AN ERA OF GROWING INEQUALITY, DEBT CRISES AND THE RISE OF ISLAMIST EXTREMISM, DEMOCRACY IS UNDER PRESSURE. Attendees gather for the annual Athens Democracy Forum on September 15, 2015. The New York Times

Edited by Serge Schmemann

I

The New York Times

s the democratic system of government working? What challenges have arisen in the past year that democracies are struggling to cope with?

The Athens Democracy Forum is convened every year by the International New York Times, with the support of the United Nations and the city of Athens, to examine the state of liberal democracy around the world.

cracy Prevail?

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The CONVERSATION

Steven Erlanger, London Bureau Chief for The New York Times and moderator of the panel, listens to Sir Richard Dearlove, KCMG, OBE, Former Chief of the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), during a panel discussion at the Athens Democracy Forum on September 15, 2015. The New York TimeS

This year, the flood of Syrian and other refugees into Europe, the drumbeat of terrorist attacks and the agonized debate over Greece’s debt gave a special urgency to the discussions. We offer here edited and abridged excerpts from three of the panel discussions.

The moderators: • Serge Schmemann, member of the Times editorial board • Liz Alderman, chief European business correspondent for The Times • Steven Erlanger, The Times’ bureau chief in London The participants: • Paula Dobriansky, former US undersecretary of state for democracy and global affairs • Eric X. Li, venture capitalist and political scientist in Shanghai • Benny Tai, associate professor of law at the University of Hong Kong and co-founder of the Occupy Central with Love and Peace movement • Paul Krugman, Nobel laureate and Times columnist • Alan Rousso, managing director for external relations and partnerships at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development • Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of the British Secret Intelligence Service and chair of the board of trustees at the University of London • Ed Husain, senior advisor and director of strategy at the Tony Blair Faith Foundation • Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore

Kishore Mahbubani, Dean and Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. The New York Times

IS LIBERAL DEMOCRACY UNIVERSAL? Serge Schmemann: Liberal democracy is under challenge. For much of the world, the democracies of the United States and Europe are no longer perceived as a “shining city on a hill.” Russia and China argue for an authoritarian version they regard as better suited to their cultures; Islamist extremists wage a murderous campaign for a new caliphate. Can we still argue that liberal democracy as we know it in the West is universal?

Eric X. Li: I’m a venture capitalist. And as a venture capitalist, whenever I analyze a situation, I look at the track record. Here is what I see: We’re in Athens, and even the democracy established here had a very short track record.

It survived for maybe 200 years. Then for a couple of thousand years there was no democracy, yet in that period we created marvelous civilizations, great music, great art, great culture.

With the Enlightenment, democratic ideas came back. But the version that Western democracies are selling to the rest of the world still has had an extraordinarily short track record.

After the Cold War, an enormous number of countries converted their political systems to electoral democracies. The majority of those countries have done poorly, especially in the developing world. They’re still mired in civil disorder, war, poverty.

In China we have a different system. It had a lot of problems, a lot of disasters, in the initial period. But in the last 30, 40 years, it hasn’t done so badly. China, under the oneparty state, has lifted 650 million people out of poverty.

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Benny Tai: In Hong Kong democracy has not been “sold” to us. It is a need. People need food, they need to have their material needs satisfied, and then they need to have a sense of security. And once people have filled those needs, they want freedoms, and then they want to feel secure that their freedoms will be protected; they want rights. So we start to care about the rights of other people and about putting constraints on government. One way to do it is to select our leaders.

Democracy is an evolving process. Not just in the system, but also in the consciousness of the people. I am not arguing that we need to have the kind of electoral systems as in the West overnight.

Paula Dobriansky: Democracy is not in retreat. Eric cited a number of countries and areas which he said were being challenged economically. There might be economic challenges, but political rights have been maintained. And countries keep moving toward democracy.

Burma has decided to hold elections. I was in Burma not too long ago, and I saw quite a change from where it was economically before. In Ukraine, people demonstrated because they wanted the choice of joining Europe, and also rejected corruption.

Democracy is not a linear process. There are constant changes, ebbs and flows.

Li: Let’s make a bet. Ten years from now, are we betting the people of Ukraine and people of Burma will be living in economic prosperity, free of corruption? I’d bet against that.

Dobriansky: I’d bet that the people of Ukraine and the people of Burma, if given the

Eric X. Li, venture capitalist and political scientist, and Serge Schmemann, member of the New York Times editorial board. The New York Times

Benny Tai, associate professor of law at the University of Hong Kong and co-founder of the Occupy Central with Love and Peace movement.

The New York Times

opportunity, and if they are not threatened or prevented, will advance themselves economically and gain new political rights.

Schmemann: Let me return to you, Eric. You had mentioned that as a venture capitalist, you look for systems that work.

There are a lot of very successful venture capitalists in the States, as far as I know, who are certainly not hampered by the system, and support it.

Also, on the betting front, I would bet that in 10 years there are going to be many, many people in China who share the feelings of the Occupy Central people in Hong Kong.

Li: Well, it’s possible. But I think it will depend on how democracies perform in the next 10 years. I’m respectful of democracy.

The troubles with democracy come from the notion that it is universal and permanent and the best thing we’ve got.

The Chinese are and should be open to alternatives; I don’t think they should close their doors on democracy. But I don’t think they should do what many Westerners are doing, which is rejecting any alternative.

Tai: Agreed, agreed.

Dobriansky: No one is imposing democracy, and no one should. You can’t take, say, the model of democracy as it is in the United States and transplant it to another country.

Models are different. But it is clear what constitutes a democracy and a democratic process and what doesn’t.

Democracy is not just about an election or two; it’s about institutions, about freedom of the press, about freedom of religion, about checks and balances. It’s about rule of law, the universal protection of human rights. Those concepts can be expressed in various ways in different societies.

IS INEQUALITY “THE CHALLENGE OF OUR TIME”?

Liz Alderman: If you have more money, do you have more freedom of speech? What does this mean for democracy, if the rich have more influence than the majority of the people? What can be done to address it?

Paul Krugman: When the financial crisis hit, many people expected a replay of the New Deal, where in response to the failure of unregulated capitalism, you would have a return to institutions that promote a middle class; a turning away from worship of the market and a movement toward greater equality.

By and large it has not turned out that way.

In Europe, the middle class has been disempowered, not empowered. Fears of another economic crisis, anxiety over debt, have been used as hammers with which to smash the institutions that have in the past provided some bulwark against extreme inequality.

It has been an enormously undemocratic process. European policy is determined by technocrats who have no idea what to do except to smash the power of workers.

Alan Rousso: We know from studies that it’s very rare, if not unheard of, for countries once they reach a certain level of economic development to reverse course and become nondemocracies.

So when we talk about democracy being in crisis, I don’t see established democracies in developed countries becoming nondemocracies. I don’t really see those countries in transition in southeastern Europe, in Eastern

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Europe and the Baltic states, suddenly throwing democracy overboard.

There are challenges to democracy. It doesn’t always function perfectly. It may mean that parties rise and fall. It may mean that people are out in the streets. But they still prefer a democratic way of solving problems.

Krugman: Yes, the odds of seeing any major democratic nation declare itself no longer a democracy are quite low. The chances of its ceasing to be in practice a democracy are very different—a situation in which a fairly small oligarchy gets to define the parameters of acceptable discussion, the policies that are on the table, what is considered to be respectable and responsible. Europe has become a society of countries that are democratic in form, but they are increasingly undemocratic in terms of how they are actually run.

There’s some evidence that at current levels of inequality, reducing inequality is actually favorable for growth. But the more important point is there’s not a shred of evidence that it hurts growth. Reducing inequality is something we can do, and there’s no reason at all to believe that it will cripple the economy or discourage the job creators.

The CONVERSATION

From left: Kishore Mahbubani, Dean and Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore; Steven Erlanger, London Bureau Chief for The New York Times and moderator of the panel discussion; Sir Richard Dearlove, KCMG, OBE, Former Chief of the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6); and Ed Husain, Adjunct Senior fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, New York City; Senior adviser and Director of strategy, The Tony Blair Faith Foundation; author and former Islamist activist, participate in a panel discussion during the Athens Democracy Forum. The New York Times

ARE WESTERN DEMOCRACIES THE MORTAL ENEMIES OF ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS? Steven Erlanger: I had just moved to Berlin when the 9/11 attacks happened in New York. Most of the plotters were from Hamburg, so I spent much of the next year chasing Mohammed Atta. Atta had been a student of urban design, and his thesis was about Aleppo, in Syria. What radicalized him in part was the fact that Aleppo was being destroyed, he thought, by modern development. Today, Atta is dead and Aleppo has been destroyed by Islamic extremism. Syria, too, has been destroyed. That gives me the sense that Islamic extremism is not the simple thing that we think it is.

Ed Husain: I think it was an Italian philosopher who said that the discourse of the disorganized majority is controlled by an organized minority. That’s exactly what we’re seeing played out across the Middle East: We have a very organized minority of jihadists who dominate the global Muslim agenda.

What’s their attitude toward democracy?

It’s that popular sovereignty violates God’s sovereignty. Shariah, or Muslim law, must be sovereign, and anything that violates that must be opposed.

Then there are Islamists, like the Muslim Brotherhood, whose game is to use democ-

racy to get into power. But they don’t get democratic culture, the rule of law, as we saw with Mohammed Morsi in Egypt.

And there are the Arab political regimes, whether dictatorships or monarchies, who talk democracy but take every measure to contain it, control it, and keep it at bay for all kinds of political short-term calculations—supported by most of our governments in the West.

Kishore Mahbubani: We are entering a new era of world history, different from what we’ve had in the last 200 years, marked by two factors: the end of the era of Western domination of world history, and a world that is becoming smaller and smaller. We live side by side, cheek by jowl with each other.

The confluence of these two factors is aggravating relations between the Western world and the Islamic world. Many in the West want to say that the problem is over there, and do not consider the possibility that the West may be equally responsible for the problem.

The largest Islamic democracy in the world, and a successful democracy, is in Indonesia. They’re modernizing and succeeding.

But they also contain the seeds of anger that have led to the creation of ISIS. They look at the number of bombs and

34 Turning Points

drones that have killed Muslims over the last 10, 15 years. They see daily that Muslim lives have become inconsequential. So it’s not surprising that 25,000 young people, many of whom know nothing about the Arab world, go and fight in ISIS. If you chop off ISIS without dealing with the larger problem, another ISIS will come.

Husain: This has been in our midst since the early 1990s. That’s when we had another huge conflict going on in Europe: the Bosnia conflict where, between 1991 and 1995, white, blond, blue-eyed Muslims were killed for being that—Muslims—in the midst of Europe.

We had at our universities in Britain young activists who had been given political refuge—Omar Bakri Muhammad, Abu Qatada and others—and who radicalized an entire generation of young Muslims like myself, born and raised in the UK. Their argument was attractive: if young, white, blond, blue-eyed Muslims who were integrated into the fabric of Europe, who ate pork and drank alcohol, could be killed, what then for people like me? What future did my generation have?

In the intervening 20 years, we’ve had the embodying and the embedding of this extremist ideology of jihadism, Salafism,

Liz Alderman, Chief European Business Correspondent, International New York Times. The New York Times

Paul Krugman, Economist, Op-ed New York Times columnist and Nobel Laureate. The New York Times

Islamism, whatever you wish to call it—distinct from the religion of Islam—in which young Muslims born and raised in the West who do not feel they belong.

Jihad is attractive. Young Muslims—not all Muslims, probably 1 percent or thereabouts—have grown up in the last 20 years believing in a utopia, in the promise that we will see a caliphate in our time.

And there is an afterlife element: a literalist reading of scripture that says that we’re heading toward the end times.

ISIS has capitalized on these sentiments: that we are in the end times, and it’s now incumbent upon their followers to migrate to a Shariah land, to a caliphate that God protects. And if you die in this process, you will receive heavenly rewards.

What ISIS offers these young people is a sense of dignity, of purpose, of defying every odd that’s thrown at them by the modern world.

Sir Richard Dearlove: I think we need to be cautious about making legal changes to cope with the problem. This needs to be done with precision, with thoughtfulness, and not in a state of panic.

Panic makes for bad laws—you only have to

Alan Rousso, Managing Director for External Relations and Partnerships, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

The New York Times

Paula Dobriansky, former US Undersecretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs. The New York Times

look back at many measures that were brought in, in 2004. Fortunately, many of them had sunset clauses, so they could be revised. I don’t think we should go down the same track again.

We haven’t mentioned migration, which is perhaps the most potent issue, politically, in Europe. But if we’re to solve the problems driving the problems—a strategic approach to the complete destabilization of the state in Libya and Syria, and this takes us into the fundamentalist issue—we have to start putting this first in our priorities.

Mahbubani: When I was young, when I was studying at the University of Singapore, and when I went to Malaysia, to the University of Malaya, there were lots of young Muslim women. Guess what they wore? Miniskirts.

Today, I go to the same campus, and 100 percent of the women are wearing the hijab.

Why? Technology. It has shrunk the world.

It actually began in the 1980s, when the West sponsored the jihadists to fight in Afghanistan. And after you won the war in Afghanistan, you walked away, and left Osama bin Laden behind with all the weapons. Then there was the invasion of Iraq—the military was destroyed, the Baath party was destroyed, and you left a political vacuum.

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To avoid a recurrence, please go back and understand what went wrong before to ensure we don’t repeat the mistake.

Dearlove: I’m slightly concerned by the turn of the argument that it’s all the West’s fault. What alarms me now is the failure of the powers-that-be in the Middle East to approach their own problems. For example, Turkey could have solved the problem of ISIS very quickly had it wished to do so. The Egyptian have very powerful armed forces. Are they deployed? They are not.

I originally started life as a historian, and the destruction of cultural heritage by religious movements has a long-established history. The driver, usually, is theological and political—to assert the identity of your particular movement. As a messianic movement, ISIS is largely acting in character.

We all wish to prevent this, because our society values cultural heritage very highly.

And of course, it’s because we value it so highly that ISIS make a point of behaving in the opposite manner.

Husain: There is an impulse to go back, in an age of confusion, in an age of modernity, to black and white, right and wrong, heaven and hell. n

The Year in Photos

JANUARY: A LONG-AWAITED THAW IN CUBA After a silence of 54 years, the Obama administration and the Cuban government began official talks in January to restore diplomatic relations between the two countries. While the trade embargo remains, Republican critics objected that these changes would benefit the Castro regime. For some Cubans, the prospect of new trade and tourism appeared to overshadow such doubts, as seen in this Havana street scene. Some American companies were allowed to extend their operations in Cuba, and in July Cuba and the US reopened their embassies in Washington and Havana. The New York Times

36 Turning Points

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The Year in Photos

JANUARY: A MYSTERIOUS DEATH IN ARGENTINA The Argentine prosecutor, Alberto Nisman, was found dead in his apartment on January 18, an apparent suicide. He had been scheduled to testify to the Argentine Congress the next day regarding the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people. Nisman claimed to have found evidence that in exchange for oil, Argentina agreed to cover up Iran’s sponsorship of the bombing, which Hezbollah had carried out. Officials ruled that the cause of Nisman’s death was unclear; a private inquiry commissioned by his ex-wife reported that he had been murdered.

Juan Mabromata/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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The Year in Photos

FEBRUARY: GRIEF IN EGYPT Egyptian Coptic Christians attended a memorial service in mid-February for members of their community executed by militants from the Islamic State. The militants posted a video online showing the beheadings of many of the 21 men who were abducted while working in Libya. In retaliation, Egypt launched airstrikes against Islamic State targets across the border and called on the US-led coalition fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria to expand combat to Libya. Mohamed El-Shahed/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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The Year in Photos

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FEBRUARY: UKRAINE STRUGGLES TOWARD PEACE Ukrainian servicemen took a break from their duties in February after President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine agreed to a cease-fire, as did separatist groups at Putin’s behest. Under the agreement, which was signed a year after former pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich was removed from power, Kiev would regain control of the country’s border with Russia in exchange for recognizing some of the rebels’ territorial gains, resuming social benefits payments to residents of southeastern Ukraine, and decentralizing political power, among other concessions. Intermittent violence continued.

Volodymyr Shuvayev/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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The Year in Photos

MARCH: DELIBERATE PLANE CRASH Wreckage from a Germanwings plane flying from Barcelona, Spain, to Dßsseldorf, Germany, was found on a mountainside in the French Alps after the pilot, Andreas Lubitz, crashed the aircraft on March 24, killing all 150 people aboard. In the weeks following, investigators discovered that Lubitz had been depressed and had researched suicide methods before the crash. Airlines around the world reviewed mental health vetting procedures for their pilots and implemented rules to ensure that two crew members are present in a plane’s cockpit at all times.

Fabrice Balsamo/Gendarmerie Nationale via The New York Times

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The Year in Photos

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MARCH: SINGAPORE REMEMBERS A FOUNDING FATHER Lee Kuan Yew, who served as Singapore’s first prime minister from 1959 to 1990, died on March 23 at the age of 91. During his years in office, per capita income in the country reached some of the highest levels in Asia. Yew is credited with igniting the country’s rapid development and with eliminating corruption. Many consider him to be the father of Singapore, though critics accused Yew of embracing an authoritarian style and of attempting to mold the nation’s citizens through persnickety laws rather than governing them. Mohd Rasfan/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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The Year in Photos

APRIL: EARTHQUAKE IN NEPAL Cremation ceremonies in Kathmandu followed a magnitude 7.8 earthquake that devastated Nepal on April 25, and a second one of magnitude 7.3 on May 12. The quakes killed 8,633 people and destroyed swaths of the country’s infrastructure.

Frustrated by the government’s slow response, young Nepalis and volunteer organizations used social media and set up websites to coordinate relief efforts and provide information. In an effort to remove barriers to reconstruction, the major Nepalese political parties adopted a constitution in September, amid violent protests from groups that felt underrepresented. Daniel Berehulak for The New York Times

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The Year in Photos

APRIL: RACIAL UNREST IN THE U.S. Throughout 2015 the Black Lives Matter movement, which had coalesced the previous year following the death of Michael Brown, an unarmed black teenager, at the hands of a white police officer in Ferguson, Missouri, sought to draw attention to police shootings and issues of racial inequality around the country. Events such as the death of Freddie Gray, a 25-year-old Baltimore resident, in April ignited days of violent protests in the city, which has a history of poor race relations, and rallies across the United States. Activists and organizations pressed for solutions such as body cameras for police officers, prison reforms and increased job opportunities.

Robert Stolarik for The New York Times

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The Year in Photos

MAY: REFUGEES FROM MYANMAR SET ADRIFT Thai authorities cracked down on human trafficking following the discovery of a mass grave near the border with Malaysia on May 1, with the unintended effect that smugglers fearing prosecution abandoned an estimated 7,000 to 8,000 migrants in boats off the coasts of Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. The passengers were mostly Rohingya, Muslims from Myanmar who face religious persecution from radical Buddhists. For more than a week, the three countries pushed many of the boats back to sea, but under international pressure, they agreed to provide temporary homes for the migrants. Here, Rohingya gather food supplies dropped by a Thai army helicopter.

Christophe Archambault/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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The Year in Photos

MAY: BURUNDI IN CRISIS Fault lines appeared in Burundi’s democracy in May, when the constitutional court ruled that President Pierre Nkurunziza could run for a third term, protests erupted in the nation’s capital, and an army general engaged in a failed coup attempt. Nkurunziza instituted a violent crackdown on dissent and freedom of the press, and in July was re-elected to power in a vote that opposition parties boycotted as unfair and undemocratic. More than 170,000 people fled to neighboring countries, fearing a new outbreak of ethnic violence between Hutus and Tutsis. Jennifer Huxta/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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The Year in Photos

JUNE: A VIRUS IN THE AIR Two women took a selfie on the deserted grounds of Gyeongbokgung Palace in Seoul as the South Korean government tried to contain the spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome, closing schools and asking thousands of people to observe quarantines. The country’s domestic spending and economic growth plunged in consequence. The virus, which is thought to have spread from camels to humans in 2012, was discovered in South Korea on May 20, after a man who had traveled to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates sought treatment. By the time the outbreak was contained, 186 people had been infected and 36 were dead. The virus is currently limited to Middle Eastern countries. Ed Jones/Agence FrancePresse — Getty Images

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The Year in Photos

JUNE: CONSERVING CHINA Hoping to protect China’s ecologically diverse and rich landscapes, such as the Huanglong nature reserve in Sichuan province, Chinese officials and the Paulson Institute, a Chicagobased research center, announced a plan in June to establish a set of trial national parks. Activists welcomed the news, since many of the country’s current preserves and parks are threatened by tourism and industry, and their boundaries can be changed or eliminated depending on local politicians’ needs.

Gilles Sabrie/The New York Times

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The Year in Photos JULY: THE HUNTER BECOMES THE HUNTED After Cecil, a 13-year-old lion with a distinctive black mane, left or was lured out of Zimbabwe’s Hwange National Park and then killed by Walter James Palmer, an American dentist and hunting enthusiast, in early July, Palmer himself became the focus of public anger and grief.

He went into hiding as Zimbabwean officials accused him of poaching and sought his extradition, while in the US, people set up memorials to Cecil in front of his office and online. In response to the public outpouring, several airlines said they would no longer transport big-game trophies, and the United Nations passed a resolution meant to incite a global effort to stop illegal poaching and animal trafficking.

Ultimately, the Zimbabwean government said that Palmer had proper documentation for the hunt. Agence France-Presse/Zimbabwe National Parks

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The Year in Photos

JULY: EL CHAPO ESCAPES AGAIN Mexico’s most notorious drug lord, Joaquín Guzmán Loera, known as “El Chapo,” escaped from the country’s highest-security prison through an underground tunnel on July 11, embarrassing President Enrique Peña Nieto, who had pointed to the cartel leader’s capture in 2014 as a sign of his administration’s effectiveness. The breakout was not Guzmán’s first. In 2001, he fled a nearly identical prison with the help of his guards.

Brett Gundlock for The New York Times

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The Year in Photos

AUGUST: HEAT SCORCHES THE MIDDLE EAST Iraqi men swam in the Tigris River to escape the deadly heat wave that gripped the Middle East in early August, with apparent temperatures reaching 164° Fahrenheit in Iraq. When the country’s infrastructure failed to keep up with electrical demand, protesters took to the streets, and their goals soon expanded from demands for better service to fighting corruption. Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi ended government officials’ exemption from regularly scheduled power cuts at home and at work, and announced an ambitious plan that would eliminate several senior political positions and sectarian quotas for such posts. In the months that followed, Iraqis complained that the plan fell short of its goals. Sabah Arar/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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The Year in Photos

AUGUST: DEADLY BLASTS SHAKE CHINA Rows of burned Volkswagen cars and ruined buildings reveal the power of the explosions that left a crater at the site of what had been a warehouse storing thousands of tons of chemicals in Tianjin, a city in northeastern China, on August 12. The official death toll from the blasts was 173 people—more than half of whom were firefighters. Hundreds more were injured, and an estimated 17,000 homes were damaged. Reporters subsequently discovered that Rui Hai International Logistics, the company that owned the warehouse, had violated several regulations about how and where such substances are stored. The police inquiry is ongoing.

Fred Dufour/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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The Year in Photos

SEPTEMBER: GOD SAVE THE QUEEN Outside Buckingham Palace in London, the unofficial town crier Tony Appleton announced that on September 9 at the age of 89, Queen Elizabeth II had become the nation’s longest-reigning monarch, serving for more than 23,226 days. The record renewed a centuries-old discussion about whether the British monarchy should be abolished, though Britons who support such a move remain in the minority, in part because of the queen’s popularity and constancy.

Since the monarch wields little political power, most people are happy to allow the tradition to continue.

Justin Tallis/Agence France-Presse — AFP Photo

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The Year in Photos

SEPTEMBER: WELCOME TO THE FAMILY A girl examining bone fragments from Homo naledi, a recently identified early human lineage, at the Cradle of Humankind World Heritage Site near Johannesburg. The species is named after the “Rising Star” cave in South Africa where cavers found the remains of at least 15 individuals in an isolated chamber in 2013. Though H. Naledi walked upright, the hominid’s skull was less than half the size of a modern human’s, and its fingers were suited to climbing trees.

The discovery was announced in September by a team of more than 60 scientists led by Lee R. Berger, a paleoanthropologist at the University of the Witwatersrand.

Naashon Zalk/The New York Times

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The Year in Photos

OCTOBER: CANADA’S CAMELOT Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party won a hard-fought election on October 19, to become Canada’s prime minister. Following in his father Pierre Trudeau’s footsteps—he is the first Canadian prime minister to do so, and at 43, the second-youngest person to hold the office—he prevailed over Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, promising a starkly different direction. Where Harper had adopted tough security measures and a hawkish foreign policy stance, Trudeau promised a renewed commitment to the country’s core values of multiculturalism at home and of offering a “compassionate and constructive” voice abroad. Trudeau is seen here with his wife, Sophie Grégoire, on the night he was elected.

Nicholas Kamm — Agence France Press — Getty Images

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The Year in Photos

OCTOBER: SHELTER FROM THE STORM Hurricane Patricia, a Category 5 storm and one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, hit the southwest coast of Mexico on October 23.

Though the hurricane toppled houses and trees and set off landslides, it did not hit any towns directly and lost force as it moved inland. Mismanagement during previous natural disasters had prompted improvements in Mexico’s national emergency response system: officials made sure that residents were evacuated and shelters designated before the hurricane’s landfall, and few fatalities were reported. The day afterward, Arturo Cortez Mendoza flew a Mexican flag while replanting palm trees at his father’s restaurant in Melaque. Kirsten Luce/The New York Times

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The Year in Photos

NOVEMBER: A PEACEFUL NIGHT, SHATTERED At Le Carillon, a restaurant where one in a series of suicide bombings and mass shootings took place in Paris on November 13, mourners paid tribute to the 130 people killed and 413 injured. Authorities soon named the suspected organizer: Abdelhamid Abaaoud, a Belgian man of Moroccan descent who had traveled to Syria in 2014 and pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group, then re-entered Europe via Greece and planned the attacks, which were carried out by nine people. Groups across Europe called for tighter monitoring at borders, especially of refugees. Abaaoud and two accomplices died in a shootout with police in Paris five days later.

Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

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The Year in Photos

NOVEMBER: CHINA AND TAIWAN REACH ACROSS THE STRAIT The leaders of China and Taiwan met in Singapore on November 7, for the first time since Mao Zedong’s Communist forces defeated Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists in 1949, and the Nationalists fled to Taiwan. At the meeting Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-jeou, respectively the presidents of China and Taiwan, discussed their hopes for peace and progress. Their historic handshake lasted for over a minute, giving reporters—and those watching from home—ample time to capture the moment on camera. Agence France Press — Getty Images

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The Year in Photos

DECEMBER: A MOMENT OF CLARITY Beijing officials issued a “red alert” in that city over excessive smog on December 8, with fine particles in the air at such high levels that even healthy people can be affected. Throughout the capital, schools closed, half of all cars were ordered off the roads and some factories were asked to shut down. Air quality was worse in other Chinese cities, but alerts were not sounded or involved less stringent measures. The central government has been pushing for uniformity in standards across the region but has met with resistance from local officials, who are urged to pursue economic growth. Greg Baker — Agence France Press — Getty Images

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DECEMBER: DISCOVERED, BUT NOT RESOLVED Colombian President Juan Manual Santos announced on December 5 the discovery of the San José, a Spanish sailing ship that sank off his nation’s coast over 300 years ago, during the War of the Spanish Succession. The galleon exploded during a battle with the British, carrying a treasure that was meant to turn the course of the war and that might now be the world’s largest sunken treasure: The cargo’s value has been estimated at as much as $17 billion in gold, silver and jewels. It is claimed by Colombia and an American salvage company that says it found the ship in 1981. Spain is also considering its rights. Colombian Ministry of Culture via The New York Times

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Illustration: Luisa Vera

Living in the Cult of Likability

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O

By Bret Easton Ellis

n a recent episode of the television series “South Park,” the character Cartman and other townspeople who are enthralled with Yelp, the app that lets customers rate and review restaurants, remind maître d’s and waiters that they will be posting reviews of their meals. These “Yelpers” threaten to give the eateries only one star out of five if they don’t please them and do exactly as they say. The restaurants feel that they have no choice but to comply with the Yelpers, who take advantage of their power by asking for free dishes and making suggestions on improving the lighting. The restaurant employees tolerate all this with increasing frustration and anger—at one point Yelp reviewers are even compared to the Islamic State group—before both parties finally arrive at a truce. Yet unknown to the Yelpers, the restaurants decide to get their revenge by contaminating the Yelpers’ plates with every bodily fluid imaginable.

IN THE REPUTATION ECONOMY, THE RATINGS GO BOTH WAYS.

In the sharing economy, the feedback goes both ways for services like Airbnb and Uber.

Passengers and drivers of the ride-hailing service can rate each other on a scale of 1 to 5.

Sam Hodgson for The New York Times

The point of the episode is that today everyone thinks that they’re a professional critic (“Everyone relies on my Yelp reviews!”), even if they have no idea what they’re talking about. But it’s also a bleak commentary on what has become known as the “reputation economy.” In depicting the restaurants’ getting their revenge on the Yelpers, the episode touches on the fact that services today are also rating us, which raises a question: How will we deal with the way we present ourselves online and in social media, and how do individuals brand themselves in what is a widening corporate culture?

The idea that everybody thinks they’re specialists with voices that deserve to be heard

Turning Point Uber becomes one of the world’s most valuable start-ups. has actually made everyone’s voice less meaningful. All we’re doing is setting ourselves up to be sold to—to be branded, targeted and data-mined. But this is the logical endgame of the democratization of culture and the dreaded cult of inclusivity, which insists that all of us must exist under the same umbrella of corporate regulation—a mandate that dictates how we should express ourselves and behave.

Most people of a certain age probably noticed this when they joined their first corporation, Facebook, which has its own rules regarding expressions of opinion and sexuality. Facebook encouraged users to “like” things, and because it was a platform where

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many people branded themselves on the social Web for the first time, the impulse was to follow the Facebook dictum and present an idealized portrait of their lives—a nicer, friendlier, duller self. And it was this burgeoning of the likability cult and the dreaded notion of “relatability” that ultimately reduced everyone to a kind of neutered clockwork orange, enslaved to the corporate status quo.

To be accepted we have to follow an upbeat morality code where everything must be liked and everybody’s voice respected, and any person who has a negative opinion—a dislike— will be shut out of the conversation. Anyone who resists such groupthink is ruthlessly shamed. Absurd doses of invective are hurled

Living in the Cult of Likability

It’s become routine for people to rate restaurants, doctors and hotels, but increasingly services are turning the tables and rating the customer as well. Diners photograph their food at a ramen restaurant in New York.

Michelle V. Agins/The New York Times

at the supposed troll to the point that the original “offense” often seems negligible by comparison.

I’ve been rated and reviewed since I became a published author at the age of 21, so this environment only seems natural to me. A reputation emerged based on how many reviewers liked or didn’t like my book.

That’s the way it goes—cool, I guess. I was liked as often as I was disliked, and that was OK because I didn’t get emotionally involved.

Being reviewed negatively never changed the way I wrote or the topics I wanted to explore, no matter how offended some readers were

by my descriptions of violence and sexuality.

As a member of Generation X, rejecting, or more likely ignoring, the status quo came easily to me. One of my generation’s loudest anthems was Joan Jett’s “Bad Reputation,” whose chorus rang out: “I don’t give a damn about my reputation/ I’ve never been afraid of any deviation.” I was a target of corporatethink myself when the company that owned my publishing house decided it didn’t like the contents of a particular novel I had been contracted to write and refused to publish it on the grounds of “taste.” (I could have sued but another publisher who liked the book

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published it instead.) It was a scary moment for the arts—a conglomerate was deciding what should and should not be published and there were loud arguments and protests on both sides of the divide. But this was what the culture was about: People could have differing opinions and discuss them rationally. You could disagree and this was considered not only the norm but interesting as well. It was a debate. This was a time when you could be opinionated—and, yes, a questioning, reasonable critic—and not be considered a troll.

Now all of us are used to rating movies,

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Photo Illustration: Tony Cenicola

Customer reviews and ratings have grown as the social web and peer-to-peer services expand, leading many to closely manage their personal brand online.

Photo Illustration by Tony Cenicola/The New York Times

Jeff Burton

restaurants, books, even doctors, and we give out mostly positive reviews because, really, who wants to look like a hater? But increasingly, services are also rating us. Companies in the sharing economy, like Uber and Airbnb, rate their customers and shun those who don’t make the grade. Opinions and criticisms flow in both directions, causing many people to worry about how they’re measuring up. Will the reputation economy put an end to the culture of shaming or will the bland corporate culture of protecting yourself by “liking” everything—of being falsely polite just to be accepted by the herd—grow stron-

ger than ever? Giving more positive reviews to get one back? Instead of embracing the true contradictory nature of human beings, with all of their biases and imperfections, we continue to transform ourselves into virtuous robots. This in turn has led to the awful idea —and booming business—of reputation management, where a firm is hired to help shape a more likable, relatable You. Reputation management is about gaming the system.

It’s a form of deception, an attempt to erase subjectivity and evaluation through intuition, for a price.

Ultimately, the reputation economy is about making money. It urges us to conform to the blandness of corporate culture and makes us react defensively by varnishing our imperfect self so we can sell and be sold things. Who wants to share a ride or a house or a doctor with someone who doesn’t have a good online reputation? The reputation economy depends on everyone maintaining a reverentially conservative, imminently practical attitude: Keep your mouth shut and your skirt long, be modest and don’t have an opinion.

The reputation economy is yet another example of the blanding of culture, and yet the enforcing of groupthink has only increased anxiety and paranoia, because the people who embrace the reputation economy are, of course, the most scared. What happens if they lose what has become their most valuable asset? The embrace of the reputation economy is an ominous reminder of how economically desperate people are and that the only tools they have to raise themselves up the economic ladder are their sparklingly upbeat reputations—which only adds to their ceaseless worry over their need to be liked.

Empowerment doesn’t come from liking this or that thing, but from being true to our messy contradictory selves. There are limits to showcasing our most flattering assets because no matter how genuine and authentic we think we are, we’re still just manufacturing a construct, no matter how accurate it may be. What is being erased in the reputation economy are the contradictions inherent in all of us. Those of us who reveal flaws and inconsistencies become terrifying to others, the ones to avoid. An Invasion of the Body Snatchers-like world of conformity and censorship emerges, erasing the opinionated and the contrarian, corralling people into an ideal.

Forget the negative or the difficult. Who wants solely that? But what if the negative and the difficult were attached to the genuinely interesting, the compelling, the unusual?

That’s the real crime being perpetrated by the reputation culture: stamping out passion; stamping out the individual. n

Bret Easton Ellis is the author of six novels, including Less Than Zero, The Rules of Attraction, American Psycho, Glamorama, Lunar Park and Imperial Bedrooms and a collection of stories, The Informers. He is also the host of The Bret Easton Ellis Podcast.

Illustration: Eduardo Recife

Artificial Intelligence: The End of Work?

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By Ji Shisan

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elcome to the era of AI-human hybrid intelligence, where people and artificial intelligence systems work together seamlessly. Picture the scene from the 1986 movie Aliens, where Sigourney Weaver slips into a humanoid, semi-robotic weight-lifting unit to fight the alien queen—that’s about where we are today. (A number of companies around the world are developing versions of such devices for industrial and medical use, with some already on the market.) But online, it’s tougher to distinguish between man and machine.

When AI is paired with robotics, the robot is directed to teach itself how to do a certain task, rather than following rigid step-by-step programming. A robot learning by trial and error at the robotics research lab at the University of California, Berkeley. Peter Earl McCollough for The New York Times

n The Associated Press is using Automated Insights’ software to produce thousands of articles about corporate earnings each year, freeing up staff for other reporting. Humans expand and polish a few of the most important articles. n While Facebook’s virtual assistant M, introduced in the San Francisco Bay Area in 2015, uses AI to answer user questions, humans vet the answers to improve them. n IBM’s Watson is employed at some hospitals in the United States to determine the best course of treatment for individual cancer patients.

Watson analyzes genetic information and the medical literature, and then provides suggestions to the doctors in charge.

Humans supervise these AI programs and make the ultimate decisions, but white-collar workers are understandably starting to worry about the day when AI can go it alone.

Turning Point An A.I. system teaches itself how to play and win video games without any programming.

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Artificial Intelligence: The End of Work?

There have been important breakthroughs in artificial intelligence in recent years.

After being shown 10 million photos, an AI created by a team of Google researchers independently taught itself to recognize a number of different image categories, including cats. Jim Wilson/The New York Times

Don’t panic: Though the AI Revolution is underway, it is unlikely to eliminate many office jobs within the next five to 10 years.

Current AI research and usage only targets specific tasks, like image recognition or data analysis, while most jobs require workers to draw on a broad range of skills.

But I think it’s important to understand why the job market will change. There have been important advances in AI in recent years, especially in the area known as deep learning. Rather than telling a computer exactly how to do a task with step-by-step programming, researchers employing a deep

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learning system step back and let it apply techniques such as pattern recognition and trial and error to teach itself how—techniques humans use. To be clear, “artificial intelligence” does not mean that such machines are sentient, as they are portrayed in science fiction; only that given more data, they may perform a task better.

A team of researchers from Google announced a breakthrough in machine learning in 2012. They had created a network of 16,000 computer cores that was partly modeled on the human brain, with a billion connections between simulated neurons. The

WHEN ROBOTS START DOING ALL THE WORK, WHAT WILL BE LEFT FOR HUMANS?

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will undergo the most disruptive changes—in some economies, the service sector accounts for over 70 percent of gross domestic product.

In developing countries, the impact on whitecollar workers is unlikely to be immediate, due to slower adoption of AI technology, though such regions may experience a decline in outsourced manufacturing jobs with further advances in robotics. This sounds worrisome only because we can’t anticipate the new jobs that these technologies will bring and the new businesses that people will devise, as they always have. The future’s still bright, thanks to our creativity—our unique trait.

In July, an open letter from more than 1,000 AI and robotics researchers and other prominent figures—Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking and Steve Wozniak among them— warned against using AI in warfare and called for a ban on autonomous weapons. Even that technology is not as advanced as the sentient robots envisioned in the 2015 movies Ex Machina or Chappie. These movies imagine “strong” AI, or AI that is generalized, and able to carry out most human activities, as opposed to “weak” or narrow AI, which is task-specific.

No one can say whether strong AI will be created, and if so, when. I asked some Chinese AI scientists about it, and given their responses, I may as well have been asking about the possibility of alien life.

That would be a world in which perhaps even child-care jobs are threatened, but thank goodness we have many years before the dawn of strong AI-directed robots. In that future, we may not need to work very hard to support ourselves. The robots will be doing most of the labor, while we will have the time and leisure to explore what it is to be human. n

The New York Times

researchers fed 10 million images to the AI over three days and, unsupervised, it taught itself to recognize categories like human bodies and—the Internet’s favorite—cats. In 2015 a group from DeepMind, a company acquired by Google, published research showing that a neural network had been given the same inputs as a human on dozens of Atari games from the ’70s and ’80s—the pixels and the score—and had become an expert player at some of them without having been given any prior instruction or the rules for the games.

As the technology improves, we are giving AI systems more and more work to do, just as

we did with computers in their infancy. In 2014 and 2015, Skype introduced simultaneous translation in English, French, German, Italian, Mandarin and Spanish. Apple’s Siri, Amazon’s Alexa and Microsoft’s Cortana are all digital assistants that can carry out basic commands such as making to-do lists, playing music and tracking flights. Google has been testing self-driving cars and hopes to bring them to the public within the next four years.

It’s true that some sectors may experience a slowdown in hiring as AI handles specific parts of jobs, freeing up workers to focus on other tasks. Financial advisers and insurance agents have already teamed up with AI programs that, respectively, make recommendations for portfolio management and monitor for insurance fraud. This efficiency may mean that new job applicants will be turned away as the number of people required to staff a business declines.

But history shows that employment usually recovers after a technological revolution —though the directions it can take may be unexpected. There is a lot of debate over how much disruption the AI Revolution will bring, but I am optimistic that new jobs will replace the old ones in areas we can’t even imagine yet, just as the working world evolved after the Industrial Revolution. We don’t blame the steam engine or tractors or sewing machines for unemployment now.

AI has already created new opportunities.

Consider a service like Magic, an SMS-based delivery startup that serves customers anywhere in the US. Magic’s idea is that a user can get anything delivered on demand by text message, through the coordinated efforts of humans and AI. In China, similar startups employ hundreds of customer service staffers to cater to callers’ various needs—though it’s possible that digital assistants may one day take over from “manual intelligence.”

Many people may decide to return to school to gain new skills in these emerging fields. We may also see a surge of interest in jobs that require a broad range of abilities and human intuition, such as nursing, child care and sales. While massive open online courses like those offered on the platform I founded have already helped millions of people around the world to educate themselves, we can expect that working professionals will more routinely pursue further training as they try to stay ahead of the competition.

It seems likely that developed countries

Ji Shisan is the pen name under which Ji Xiaohua, a science writer with a PhD in neurobiology, has been publishing for many years.

He is the founder of Guokr.com and Guokr MOOC Academy, a popular science website and an MOOC platform in China, and the founder of Zaih. com, a knowledge service platform helping users to connect with experts in different fields.

The Year in cartoons

JANUARY: TERROR IN PARIS

A January 7 attack on the Paris offices of the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in response to its depictions of the Prophet Muhammad, which some Muslims found offensive, ignited a fierce global debate about freedom of speech. In a show of solidarity, at least 3.7 million people took part in anti-terrorism rallies around the world, many carrying signs that read “Je suis Charlie.” The gunmen, Said and Cherif Kouachi, who were brothers, killed 12 people, including the magazine’s editor. Paris remained on the alert until the men were shot dead by the police two days later, as was an accomplice who killed four people and a policewoman in separate confrontations.

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FEBRUARY: EUROPE’S BATTLE WITH BUSINESS

The European Union’s crackdown on tax avoidance by corporations took the spotlight in 2015 as investigators looked into arrangements between Apple and Ireland, Starbucks and the Netherlands, and Amazon and Fiat with Luxembourg as a potentially unfair form of state aid, adding Belgium to the list in February. In October, Margrethe Vestager, the European competition commissioner, announced that the Netherlands and Luxembourg must each recover up to 30 million euros in back taxes from Starbucks and Fiat. The decision may have far-reaching implications, as it means that some EU members have been offering illegal subsidies in their efforts to attract multinationals.

MARCH: WATCH THIS SPACE

Seven-nation talks among Iran, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and the United States working toward a March deadline revealed that the group was near agreement on limiting Iran’s ability to produce weapons-grade uranium in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. The sanctions were gradually put in place after a dissident group revealed the existence of Iran’s nuclear program in 2002. When a deal was reached in July, US President Barack Obama and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani overcame internal opposition to win approval of the agreement, which was officially adopted on October 18. Iran quickly began to dismantle parts of its nuclear facilities—steps linked to the lifting of sanctions.

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APRIL: IN MEMORY OF 1.5 MILLION ARMENIANS

April 24 marked the centennial anniversary of the deaths of an estimated 1.5 million Armenians who died at the hands of the Ottoman Empire in 1915, during World War I. In a commemorative mass attended by the Armenian president, Serzh Sargsyan, Pope Francis described the mass killings as a genocide, igniting a diplomatic furor with the Turkish government, which rejects the term, arguing that many Turkish people also died during the same period. Turkey recalled its ambassador to the Vatican.

Ceremonies remembering the events were held in Turkey and around the world, increasing pressure on the Turkish government.

MAY: SOCCER SCANDAL

Swiss authorities arrested several top soccer officials at an annual meeting in Zurich on May 27, acting on an American investigation of corrupt practices at FIFA, soccer’s international governing body, and the subsequent indictment of 14 people on corruption, racketeering and moneylaundering charges. Switzerland’s attorney general announced an investigation of 53 suspicious financial relationships connected with FIFA activities in June, and in September, opened criminal proceedings against Sepp Blatter, who had been re-elected to a fifth term as FIFA’s president.

FIFA suspended Blatter and two others, and revealed that it was investigating nearly a dozen current and former officials.

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JUNE: UNCLE SAM IS STILL WATCHING YOU

On June 2 the US Senate passed and President Obama signed a reform bill known as the USA Freedom Act, in response to the revelations by Edward Snowden, a former National Security agency contractor, regarding the agency’s mass collection and analysis of communications in the United States and abroad. The bill shifted the responsibility of records storage in the United States to phone service providers, who would turn the information over to the NSA only with a judicial order or in an emergency.

The bill, which set a deadline of November 29 for the NSA to comply, does not affect the agency’s collection of foreign Internet content from US companies, nor foreign intelligence gathering.

JULY: GREECE VOTES ‘NO’

On July 5, after a monthslong game of brinkmanship between Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who was elected to power in January on an antiausterity platform, and the country’s creditors, who were pushing to prevent the country from defaulting on its debt and exiting the European Union, Greek citizens resoundingly voted “no” in a referendum, rejecting the bailout terms being offered. Eight days later, however, Tsipras agreed to an 86-billion-euro bailout that required more stringent pension cuts and tax increases than the original deal.

He resigned in August, triggering a snap election that acted as a referendum on his leadership and the agreement. Tsipras emerged victorious.

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The Year in cartoons

AUGUST: CHINESE MARKETS TUMBLE

The Shanghai Composite Index experienced steep slides in August that cascaded into global markets, hurting countries and companies that had bet big on China after nearly four decades of steady growth for its economy. In response to a downward slope in the markets in early June, the reasons for which were debated, the government devalued the renminbi, hoping to improve exports. To improve perceptions of the currency’s strength, officials appealed to the IMF to categorize it as a reserve currency and increased its exposure to market forces. The crashes soon followed these efforts, leaving investors scrambling to find new financial safe harbors.

SEPTEMBER: DIESEL DECEPTION

Volkswagen, which displaced Toyota as the world’s top carmaker in 2015, fell from that perch in September after its so-called “clean diesel” vehicles were found to be spewing 40 times more pollutants into the air than is permitted in the United States. The carmaker soon revealed that software in 11 million vehicles helped them to cheat emissions tests, and CEO Martin Winterkorn resigned. Volkswagen may face $18 billion in fines from the US, and in response to an order from German regulators, the company recalled its fleet of 8.5 million vehicles in Europe.

Matthias Müller, the company’s new CEO, has said that penalties imposed by governments and other lawsuits will harm the company’s ability to keep up with new technology.

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OCTOBER: STRATEGIC MOVES IN SYRIA

Three weeks after Russia began a bombing campaign in Syria, Syrian President Bashar Assad left his country for the first time since the civil war began in 2011 to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The October 20 visit highlighted increasing tensions between Russia, which is allied with Assad and makes no distinction among insurgent groups, and the United States, which opposes Assad and supports moderate Syrian rebel groups. Some analysts suggested that Putin intervened in Syria in order to draw attention away from the fighting in the Ukraine and bring an end to Western sanctions.

NOVEMBER: TARNISHED MEDALS

The World Anti-Doping Agency released a report on November 9 exposing rampant doping and corruption across Russian athletics, encompassing “the athletes’ entourages, officials and the athletes themselves.” Testimony and secret recordings made by whistleblowers—the runner Yulia Stepanova and her husband Vitaly Stepanov, a former official with the Russian anti-doping agency—had prompted the investigation. The International Association of Athletics Federations banned Russian athletes from participating in track and field events worldwide.

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DECEMBER: DEAL OR NO DEAL

Representatives from 195 countries gathered near Paris reached a climate accord on December 12 that will enforce ongoing efforts to curb global warming, with the goal of eventually bringing net carbon emissions to zero and trying to limit the increase in global average temperature to 1.5° Celsius. The deal ensures that countries fulfill pledges they’ve already made to cut their carbon emissions by creating transparency mechanisms and systems of financial aid. Climate activists said that the measures in the agreement are insufficient and unenforceable.

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By Okey Ndibe

W

hen the Igbo of southeastern Nigeria need to describe a cataclysmic human event, they often resort to a proverb.

“Something more powerful than the cricket,” they say, “has invaded the cricket’s hole.” Outmatched by its foe, the cricket must abandon its hearth to scamper to safety, or die fighting.

A Life Uprooted WHAT LIFE AWAITS MIGRANTS AFTER THEIR JOURNEY?

Austria is one of the preferred gateways to Europe. In September, refugees gathered at a train station in Budapest, Hungary, and then marched together toward the Austrian border, over 100 miles away. Most of the people in this group were from Syria and Afghanistan.

Mauricio Lima for The New York Times

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The overland routes that refugees take to Europe change as countries erect border fences or set up other obstacles to entry.

After Hungary shut its border with Croatia in October, hundreds of migrants instead crossed into Slovenia on their way to Austria.

Most were hoping to ultimately reach Germany or a Scandinavian nation. Sergey Ponomarev/The New York Times

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A Life Uprooted Hundreds of thousands of refugees landed on European shores in 2015, many with the help of smugglers who offered places on small and inadequate vessels at high prices. A young migrant who had arrived in an inflatable raft waded ashore at Lesbos, Greece, in October. Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

Turning Point More people are fleeing home than at any time since WWII.

Like millions of other Igbo, my parents faced this grim choice in 1967, when the Nigerian government launched a civil war against the oil-rich southeastern region in which we lived, to quell the local leadership’s bid to secede and create a separate nation called Biafra.

I was only 7 when we took one of the last boats from Yola, a town on the northeastern border, to Onitsha, a sprawling commercial city in the southeast. My parents did their best to shield us, their four children, from the horrors of the Biafran War, but the gore was impossible to conceal.

We found shelter briefly in my father’s natal town, Amawbia. But as the war progressed and grew deadlier, federal troops sometimes targeted civilians in bombing raids and ground attacks, and our family became peripatetic refugees. We would run from one besieged town to a supposed safe haven, only to see it come under threat, compelling another flight.

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The Nigerian government imposed a blockade, making food scarce, often as hard to come by as hope, or sleep, with the incessant gunfire during the night. Wherever we were staying, my siblings and I would join other children and hunt lizards, which we roasted over makeshift twig fires, relishing the soft, white meat.

Less lucky kids, ravaged by kwashiorkor, were a common sight: legs spindly, bellies distended as if pumped with air, ribs discernible, necks scrawny and heads with tufts of discolored, wispy hair.

The adults were dying too. One day, as I

stood with my parents in a long queue at a center that distributed food and other goods, I saw a man crumple to the ground. My parents tried to block my view, too late. A few men stepped forward to carry him away, his body hanging limp. During the war, about 1 million people died, many of them from famine—a famine that the government deliberately imposed.

Recently, from the safety of my home in the United States, I have seen that familiar hell again. Around the world, people are being forced from their homes, and they are just as desperate to find a safe haven as my family was.

The scale of the misery is vast. In 2015, the United Nations Refugee Agency reported that 60 million people were displaced globally, according to figures gathered at the end of the previous year—the highest number since World War II. The word “crisis” sounds pallid beside it.

Men, women and children are fleeing wars, conflict and persecution in places like Syria (11.6 million), Iraq (4.1 million), Democratic Republic of Congo (4.0 million), Afghanistan (3.7 million), Sudan (2.9 million), Somalia (2.3 million), Ukraine (1.3 million) and Myanmar (907,000), according to the United Nations.

Emotionally closer to home for me, the UN also said in September that more than 2.3 million people in Nigeria’s northeast had been displaced since May 2013—victims of Boko Haram, the Islamist insurgents.

Turkey is currently sheltering about 1.6 million refugees. The names of the other leading hosts might be surprising for some, since they are neither European nor wealthy: Pakistan (1.5 million refugees), Lebanon (1.2 million), Iran (982,000), Ethiopia (660,000) and Jordan (654,000). By October, 643,000 refugees and migrants had reached the European coast via the Mediterranean since the beginning of the year.

Whichever place these refugees once called home, they know the cricket’s plight.

When you’re forced to gather your children and run, there’s no time for visas and passports. The urgency is in how to walk across the Sahara without dying of thirst, or how to survive the passage across the Mediterranean on a raft. Every person who dies attempting to reach safety testifies, in effect, that some deaths—for example, by drowning close to an Italian shore—are better than others.

Many of those who survive find themselves trapped, tantalizingly close to safety: behind them, death and destruction; ahead, barbed wire and law enforcement agents. At this point, you are dependent upon the compassion of bureaucrats.

But Hungary has been erecting fences to keep refugees out. Malaysian and Thai patrol

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ships hounded boatloads of emaciated Rohingya, Burma’s persecuted Muslim minority, back out to sea. Australia doesn’t bother with fences but quarantines many refugees offshore, on Christmas Island, Nauru and Papua New Guinea.

Of all the barriers, the label you are given is often the most difficult to overcome. When you find yourself being called a refugee or migrant or asylum seeker, that designation reflects the speaker’s agenda rather than your own attempt to tell your story. British Prime Minister David Cameron called the people arriving at European borders a “swarm.” Some European pundits have remarked that most are Muslims, implying that if they are permitted to settle, they might try to undermine local traditions and values.

I have been struggling to understand why helpless people who have been uprooted from their lives, and who would like nothing better than to go home again, inspire such fear.

By the time a refugee family flies to London, or arrives at a bus station in Amman or disembarks on the Malaysian shore, the trappings of middle-class life have often been lost —professional licenses worthless, friends and relatives scattered, all but a few possessions left behind. Perhaps when people recoil from a refugee, they are reacting against the idea that their settled lives, too, could be upended with a few bullets; that everything on which they rely could be reduced to rubble.

Perhaps it’s because some refugees have traveled farther distances, fleeing not to neighboring countries but to another region altogether, and so their plight is less likely to be known and greeted with compassion.

Or perhaps some of the refugees remind us of events we’d like to forget. Were Americans or Europeans to allow Iraqi or Libyan refugees to settle within their nations’ borders, would they remember that the US-led invasion of Iraq and the Nato-supported deposition of Gadhafi brought chaos to those nations, rather than peace?

And then there is the idea that terrorists are hiding among the refugees. After the terrorist attacks in Paris in November, a forged Syrian passport was found with the body of one of the killers. Right-wing groups across Europe demanded that their governments close borders to refugees, and some Europeans and Americans began to conflate immigration with terrorism.

Yet, when refugees are lucky on their journey, it’s often because they experience moments of compassion and empathy along the way. There are so many people who open their homes, set up charities, ferry refugees across borders. It’s rarely enough, but it helps

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keep you going. At the end of the Biafran War, fortune came my way when a woman took pity on me as I stood near a chaotic food line.

She gave me some rations and a much-needed coin, which I took home to my parents.

If you do find a home, you face the challenge of reassembling an identity, forging a community, deciding which memories to discard. You are forced to rebuild yourself anew, molecule by molecule. Some will fail to adapt.

For others, the memory of the passage into exile will always hold vengeful ghosts—lost or abandoned relatives, or those who perished on the way.

Some of my sharpest memories are from the end of the Biafran War. My parents faced a reckoning of losses: relatives who had died, or been maimed in mind or body; our house in ruins, with photos and other treasured mementoes forever lost. But we were alive.

A few relatives helped my parents to patch up one-half of our roofless home, and we moved in. Father resumed his postal job, and Mother her teaching post.

My siblings and I went at our studies with a certain passion. It didn’t matter that Nigerian troops had bombed our school building to its foundation, forcing us to take classes in the open air, prey to the sun and rain. Attending school was a ritual from our previous life, and seemed to offer a chance to reclaim some of it.

When you know what it is to be hungry and homeless, and to have lost everything, you know that anyone can find themselves in such a situation. You can only hope that the bureaucrat you’re asking for assistance understands that he could have been on the other side of the desk. And to their credit, many do.

It is the rest of us who need to learn. Refugees are not people who threaten any way of life: Many of them know the value of compassion, and as they become our neighbors, friends and colleagues, they will teach us empathy. Part of our debt to them is to give them the assistance that they would give us, and even to find it in ourselves to help restore order, normalcy or harmony in the refugees’ original homes, suddenly broken and rendered inhospitable. n

Holly Williams

Illustration: Simon Pemberton

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Okey Ndibe, currently a fellow at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, is the author of the novels Foreign Gods, Inc. and Arrows of Rain.

Global Agenda 2016

A LOOK AT EVENTS THAT WILL SHAKE, OR GENTLY RATTLE, THE WORLD IN 2016.

JANUARY

n SCOTLAND, Jan. 25: If you aren’t in a kilt reciting Auld Lang Syne between slurps of cock-a-leekie soup on Burns Night, which celebrates the country’s national poet, Robert Burns, then how Scottish can you really be? n AUSTRIA, Jan. 28-30:

How do you clean a major cultural asset? At Monumento Salzburg, the curious and the expert convene to discuss the latest innovations in restoring and preserving the world’s greatest monuments and art treasures.

FEBRUARY

n CANADA, Jan. 29-Feb.

15: Ice carvings, a snow playground and possibly the world’s largest naturally frozen rink will warm the hearts of winter lovers at Winterlude in Ottawa. n BURKINA FASO, Feb. 27-March 5: Put your best face forward and head to Dédougou for a weeklong masquerade dance party at

the Festival of Masks and the Arts, known as Festima. n CHINA, spring: Everyone’s favorite mouse says “Ni hao” to Shanghai this Lunar New Year at the grand opening of Shanghai Disneyland. The park will feature six themed lands, including Fantasyland and Tomorrowland, as well as the

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first castle that will represent all of Disney’s princesses.

n INDIA, Feb. 19-21: Some people come for a selfie, others for salt, sweat and tears as they race across the Great Rann of Kutch in Gujarat. Reputed to be the largest salt desert in the world, it is home to the Run of Kutch.

track him on your personal computer as he runs after it —or just runs away. Big Brother comes to Fido’s world as compulsory microchipping of dogs begins in England, Scotland and Wales.

MAY

n TURKEY, May 23-24: In response to widespread calls for the international community to devote more resources to humanitarian crises, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has created the first UN World Humanitarian Summit.

Governments, humanitarian organizations, and people affected by conflicts and natural disasters will come together to propose an agenda for action.

n AMALFI COAST, ITALY, Wednesdays in May, September and October: As if it weren’t heavenly enough to stroll the winding paths of the Amalfi Coast, the city of Praiano organizes an annual free open-air concert series featuring live classical and jazz music. No wonder Homer’s Odysseus succumbed to the Siren’s song around here.

JUNE

n SWITZERLAND, June 4-5: A much needed shortcut through the Alps is finally here as the Swiss unveil one of the longest and deepest railway tunnels in the world. Although the tunnel was almost seven decades in the dreaming and 20 years in the making, it will be finished a year ahead of schedule. n ESTONIA, June 23-24: According to an Estonian fairy tale, on the longest day of the year the lovers Koit (dawn) and Hämarik (dusk) meet to exchange a brief kiss.

Estonian teenagers follow suit on Jaanipäev, or St. John’s Day.

MARCH

n UNITED STATES, spring: One Hogwarts in America is just not enough.

Following its success at Universal Studios Orlando, the Wizarding World of Harry Potter is coming to Universal Studios Hollywood this spring. And, as befits

Hollywood, the signature ride, Harry Potter and the Forbidden Journey, will be enhanced with 3-D technology.

n ARGENTINA, March 13-19: Warning: not for the faint of heart. Watch the passion and charisma of dancers from around the world at the definitive tango

event of the year. The Congreso Internacional de Tango Argentino in Buenos Aires is the longest-running annual tango gathering in the country.

APRIL

n ENGLAND, SCOTLAND and WALES, April 6: Throw a dog a bone, then

JULY n FINLAND, July 2: On the back of every great man is a great woman. In the Wife Carrying World Championships, each man carries his wife in a race to win her weight in beer. n UNITED STATES, mid-July: Who you gonna call? Ghostbusters. The 1984 comedy classic is being rebooted with an all-female leading cast.

AUGUST

n BRAZIL, Aug. 5-21: The road to Rio leads to the Summer Olympics. Rio de

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Janeiro will host over 10,000 athletes from more than 200 countries in South America’s first Olympic Games. n SOUTH KOREA, early September: Seeking enlightenment? Thousands of fireflies light up the sky during the Muju Firefly Festival, an environmental festival that celebrates the luminous bug.

SEPTEMBER

n CUMBRIA, ENGLAND, Sept. 16-17: This isn’t the time to visit Egremont if you’re looking for a friendly face. It’s the World Gurning Championships, where participants compete by making the ugliest faces they can muster. n SOUTH AFRICA, Sept. 30-Oct. 2: Moby Dick is rumored to be making an appearance at the Hermanus Whale Festival. Musicians and other performers celebrate the creatures of the deep at one of the best land-based whale-watching destinations.

OCTOBER n UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, October: In one fell swoop, Dubai takes on Hollywood, Bollywood and Broadway. Dubai Parks and Resorts will be home to the Middle East’s first Legoland, as well as attractions based on live musical performances and popular films like The Hunger Games.

NOVEMBER

n NEPAL, Oct. 29: On the second day of Nepal’s Diwali celebration, the country honors its sacred canines with the Kukur Tihar Festival, draping a garland called a “malla” around every dog’s neck— including homeless dogs— and placing a red mark called “tika” on every dog’s forehead. n FRANCE, Nov. 25: Sacrebleu! You are 25 and single? On St. Catherine’s Day in France, you are exposed as a traitor to romance by being forced to wear an elaborate green and yellow hat all day.

DECEMBER

n MEXICO, Dec. 23: Don’t play with your food.

Unless you’re spending Christmas in Oaxaca, where humble radishes are sculpted into elaborate saints, kings, animals, and Jesus and Mary figurines for Nativity scenes during La Noche de los Rábanos (The Night of the Radishes).

Masha Goncharova

Illustration: Eoin Ryan

(Opposite page) Fast-urbanizing nations like China and their expanding cities have a significant impact on climate change. China is planning to modernize Baoding, a city in the interior that will become part of a new supercity of 130 million connected with a high-speed rail line. Zhang Chuntang and his wife work in their fields in front of the development on the outskirts of Baoding. Adam Dean for The New York Times

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The Future City in the New Normal IN EVERY CITY THERE IS AN ANSWER TO THE WORLD’S ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL CRISES.

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By Jaime Lerner

lobal warming, drought, migration and population growth have put our cities under heavy strain. What does the future hold for them—and all of us—in this scenario?

Cities have a very significant impact on climate change: It’s estimated that urban areas are responsible for 75 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. Before the climate conference in Paris in December, developed and developing nations alike pledged to curb greenhouse-gas emissions in an effort to reach worldwide consensus. But does this consensus absorb the world’s many different realities, cultures and levels of economic development? And is looking at the issue on a country scale the best one to take effective action?

If the majority of the world’s population is living in cities, and urban dwellers’ activities have such a large environmental impact, doesn’t it stand to reason that it’s in cities where solutions that will improve people’s lives and our relationship with the planet must be sought and implemented?

I firmly believe that cities can help to provide the solutions to the challenges we are facing; that every city, regardless of its size and wealth, can significantly improve in two or three years; and that cities are our society’s last refuge for solidarity.

As the list of megacities grows and as more and more people move into cities from rural areas, every city should prioritize three issues that have great impact on the quality of urban life, beginning to find answers that will sustain our society in the long term: mobility, sustainability and sociodiversity.

Turning Point Countries pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

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The Future City in the New Normal

As nations like China are transformed from mainly rural economies to lands of modern city dwellers, urban planners must focus on quality of life and long-term sustainability.

Yanjiao, in Hebei Province, China, is part of a planned megalopolis called Jing-Jin-Ji, which will link 130 million people across Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei with a high-speed rail expansion. Residents walk on a dirt track across the Chaobai River, which has mostly dried up. Sim Chi Yin/The New York Times

When planners are working on mobility issues, cities must take priority over cars; people must take priority over cars. Cars have been in production for a little more than a century, but the space they have seized and the amount of infrastructure investment they demand is extremely high. Cars are the cigarettes of the future.

Cars occupy much more space than any human does. An average parking space occupies 25 square meters. If you own a car, it occupies 25 square meters near your home; if you drive to work, it occupies another 25 square meters near your workplace, meaning that a total of 50 square meters are immobilized for parking purposes. In many places in the world, 50 square meters is the size of a family home, or of a workplace. Think of the incredible benefits if at least some of those areas were used to combine home and employment; were appropriated for small, community-building businesses like bakeries, coffee houses, bookshops, flower shops and offices — or for pocket parks.

Our priority in fostering urban mobility should be to provide comfortable, safe, reliable, affordable and easy-to-use public transportation. Every mode (train, subway, bus, tram, taxi, bike) has to operate optimally and be integrated into a transit network. Car shares and bike shares like Paris’ Autolib’ or Vélib’ also have their role.

But it’s my belief that the future of public transportation is in systems like bus rapid transit, which some think of as a “surface subway.”

BRT systems make use of existing infrastructure—changes often involve designating dedicated lanes, making adjustments to right-ofway rules, and targeted technological upgrades to eliminate the delays associated with urban buses. Because of their good performance, cost effectiveness (it’s cheaper than building a subway) and flexibility in implementation, BRT systems, which started in the Brazilian city of Curitiba in 1974, are now in place in almost 200 cities worldwide including Bogotá, Seoul, Istanbul, Beijing and Rio de Janeiro, and many more could follow. I see the BRT as evolving to one day become a system of light electric vehicles with rubber tires running on exclusive tracks, re-charging at each stop.

When addressing sustainability problems, the key is to avoid wasting energy, time and resources. Some simple ways to get started are within everyone’s reach: Use your car less; live closer to work; recycle and compost. Although more efficient and energy-saving construction techniques and materials are important, it is a city’s layout that can make the biggest difference to the effort to create a more sustainable urban environment. The layout is the city’s structure of organization and growth.

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A healthy city is an integrated structure of life, work and movement. It requires urban design that respects the land and the area’s ecosystem: the topography, bodies of water and vegetation. This design guides investments made by the public and private sectors and must involve the intelligent use of density, compactness and a mixture of uses and income levels.

As the urban economy has shifted toward service, retail and knowledge-based industries, more jobs are now closer to people’s homes, and with the help of new technologies, many people can work from anywhere at any time. The shorter the commute between home and work, the more time and energy we save. Cultural amenities and quality public spaces that can be reached by public transit or on foot are also a part of this equation.

On the other hand, fragmenting cities into areas with specialized functions such as suburbs, central business districts and downtown areas condemns these spaces and their infrastructure to be idle during long periods of the day or night. A more compact city that supports a diversity of activities leaves more land for conservation, water catchment and farming.

When you’re working on issues arising from diversity, it’s important to remember

In 2015, the world’s major economies pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions to set levels in the coming decades. Brazil has pledged to end illegal deforestation.

An area of the Amazon rain forest burned to make way for pasturelands. Lalo de Almeida for The New York Times

mechanisms, we should invest in quality of life.

Imagine the number of jobs—and therefore income—that could have been generated all over the world if at least part of the billions of dollars that were poured into the banking system and automotive industry had been invested in education, health, culture, good infrastructure.

A useful tool to stimulate rapid change and to help consolidate long-term initiatives is what I call “urban acupuncture.” These precise, quick touches can enhance the performance of a whole urban system, or quickly bring new life to degraded and obsolete areas. Curitiba repurposed an abandoned quarry that was depressing the surrounding neighborhoods, in its place creating an urban park devoted to promoting environmental education and discussion. Now known as the Open University of the Environment, or Unilivre, it’s an example of urban acupuncture that achieved these three goals at once—one of the city’s most cherished picture-postcard spots. The possibilities in every city are endless: Obsolete industrial and harbor areas, degraded waterfronts, underutilized transportation hubs and dilapidated historical buildings are not eyesores, but spaces begging for new uses.

A city’s design must be a collective construct, a shared dream, so that a feeling of coresponsibility informs our efforts. That does

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not mean that consensus must be reached every step of the way: The search for absolute consensus can lead to a state of paralysis. Democracy is not consensus but a permanent conflict that society must arbitrate with great sensitivity.

Long-term policies should be adjusted through constant feedback from the people.

The crises we are experiencing should fuel efforts to start building better cities now. A more cohesive and sustainable society arises from its public spaces and landmarks, good streets, squares, parks, memorials, theaters and museums. These are a city’s “living rooms,” where urbanity happens. A human construct by definition, a city is a setting for people to meet. We must shape its future. n Jaime Lerner is an architect, urban planner and former politician in Brazil.

He is the author of Urban Acupuncture.

Daniel Katz

that cities have long been seen as “melting pots” that absorb new dwellers. Much of the New World was built according to this recipe, and we cannot forget the lessons of our past.

But now, both the New and Old worlds are fearful of the waves of people who challenge the status quo. Our society is facing problems of identity posed by increasing sociodiversity, and the recent migration crisis brings the need for coexistence front and center.

Cities must offer hope, not desperation. A sense of shared identity, the feeling of recognition and of belonging to a specific place, improves quality of life. A city must provide reference points to which people can relate and connect — rivers, parks, public buildings.

Such spaces tell stories and protect memories, much like a diary or a family portrait.

At the same time that a city’s identity is preserved, sociodiversity must be fostered. A city cannot condone ghettos, be they intended solely for the rich or the poor, or for people from specific ethnic backgrounds or certain age groups. Walls and fences are illusory protective barriers: Safety and security are a function of the respect and civility that derive from integration and coexistence.

Economic prosperity brings peace and stability. But instead of seeking solutions to generate economic growth mostly through fiscal

Illustration: Crist贸bal Schmal

Building a Better Place Online

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By Eric Schmidt

or those of us who have enjoyed access to the Internet for decades now, it can be pretty difficult to remember our first online interactions. But there are plenty of people for whom that feeling is recent and powerful: In just the past five years, more than a billion users have connected to the Internet for the first time. Whether on a desktop or a smartphone, through broadband or Google’s high-altitude balloon Wi-Fi network, they are only now experiencing how profound the simple act of getting online can be. Consider, for instance, that a girl in a schoolhouse in rural Indonesia may read this article on a tablet today—something that was impossible for her as recently as a year ago. Her experience online, when she leaves this article and ventures out onto the rest of the Web, is one that holds great potential.

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria has used state-of-the-art videos and Twitter messages to recruit fighters and promote its claim to have established a caliphate.

A screenshot of a video said to be from the Islamic State allegedly shows a militant destroying a statue in Ninevah, Iraq.

Media Office of the Islamic State via The New York Times

Turning Point The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria declares a war on Twitter.

IS TECHNOLOGY STILL THE GREAT DEMOCRATIZER?

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Building a Better Place Online

The idea that the Internet has been a tool to spread democracy has been overshadowed by its more sinister uses by radical groups like the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Pro-democracy demonstrators in Hong Kong in September 2014 checked their cellphones. Alex Ogle/Agence France-Presse –Getty Images

John Perry Barlow wrote in his essay “A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace” that the Internet promised “a world where anyone, anywhere may express his or her beliefs, no matter how singular, without fear of being coerced into silence or conformity.” In many ways, that promise has been realized. The Internet has created safe spaces for communities to connect, communicate, organize and mobilize, and it has helped

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many people to find their place and their voice. It has engendered new forms of free expression, and granted access to ideas that didn’t exist before. Children have educations they never would have gotten otherwise; entrepreneurs have started businesses they couldn’t even have imagined without it. It has created friendships, strengthened connections and fulfilled dreams for billions of people around the world. It’s been heralded as a

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and hate—to come into full view as well. We need strong leaders worldwide who will fight broadly for human progress and tolerance, and focus on bettering everyone’s lives. We need leaders to use the new power of technology to allow us to broaden our horizons as individuals, and in the process broaden the horizons of our society.

Authoritarian governments tell their citizens that censorship is necessary for stability.

It’s our responsibility to demonstrate that stability and free expression go hand in hand.

We should make it ever easier to see the news from another country’s point of view, and understand the global consciousness free from filter or bias. We should build tools to help de-escalate tensions on social media— sort of like spell-checkers, but for hate and harassment. We should target social accounts for terrorist groups like the Islamic State, and remove videos before they spread, or help those countering terrorist messages to find their voice. Without this type of leadership from government, from citizens, from tech companies, the Internet could become a vehicle for further disaggregation of poorly built societies, and the empowerment of the wrong people, and the wrong voices.

The good news is, it’s all within reach.

Intuition, compassion, creativity—these are the tools that we will use to combat violence and terror online, to drown out the hate with a broadly shared humanity that only the Web makes possible. It’s up to us to make sure that when the young girl reading this in Indonesia on her tablet moves on from this page, the Web that awaits her is a safe and vibrant place, free from coercion and conformity. n

Weinberg-Clark Photography

driver of democracy, enabling citizen uprisings and on-the-ground reporting during the Arab Spring in North Africa and the Middle East, the Umbrella Revolution in Hong Kong and protests in Brazil and India this year.

As with all great advances in technology, expanded Web access has also brought with it some serious challenges, like threats to free speech, qualms about surveillance and fears of online terrorist activity. For all the good

people can do with new tools and new inventions, there are always some who will seek to do harm. Ever since there’s been fire, there’s been arson.

In Myanmar, connectivity fans the flames of violence against the Rohingya, the minority Muslim population. In Russia, farms of online trolls systematically harass democratic voices and spread false information on the Internet and on social media. And in the Middle East, terrorists use social media to recruit new members. In particular, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria has harnessed social media to appeal to disaffected young people, giving them a sense of belonging and direction that they are not getting anywhere else. The militants’ propaganda videos are high on style and production value. They’re slick and marketable. In short, they are deluding some people to believe that living a life fueled by hatred and violence is actually … cool.

This is where our own relationship with the Internet, and with technology, must be examined more closely. The Internet is not just a series of tubes transmitting information from place to place, terminal to terminal, without regard for those typing on their keyboards or reading on their screens. The people who use any technology are the ones who need to define its role in society. Technology doesn’t work on its own, after all. It’s just a tool. We are the ones who harness its power.

Think back to the civil rights movement in America in the 1960s, during which the lives of minorities changed radically in a very short period of time as a result of concerted activism, inviting and open conversation and an empathy that had been missing to that point. Well, that was before people could meet in cyberspace and rally around a common set of ideals, before they could have a debate with someone in another hemisphere as if they were in the same room and before we could watch videos taken from people’s cellphones and see what others around the world are standing up for, and who they are standing up to.

Now we have all that at our disposal—we just need to take advantage of it. It’s all too easy to use the Internet exclusively to connect with like-minded people rather than seek out perspectives that we wouldn’t otherwise be exposed to. This sort of tribalism masks the need for common values and strong leadership. Societies are built one value, and one bargain, at a time. And it’s important we use that connectivity to promote the values that bring out the best in people.

The Internet is showing us the raw reality of the lives of oppressed people and their real needs, and it is also allowing some of our worst traits—in the form of envy, oppression

Eric Schmidt, executive chairman of Google, is the author, with Jared Cohen, of The New Digital Age: Transforming Nations, Businesses and Our Lives and How Google Works, with Jonathan Rosenberg.

Illustration: Simon Pemberton

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What Defines a Modern Warrior?

INSTEAD OF TRYING TO LIFT UP SOCIETIES, WE’VE NARROWED OUR SIGHTS TO THE HUNTING AND KILLING OF ENEMIES

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By Phil Klay

or the past several years, Ashley Gilbertson has photographed the bedrooms of the dead. Specifically, the bedrooms of participants in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; bedrooms in the United States, England, Scotland, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and France. Some parents of the fallen keep their children’s personal effects just as they were when they left, and that’s what Gilbertson captures. In one we see hockey sticks and a flag for the Toronto Maple Leafs. In another, a stuffed dolphin hangs by a bookshelf stacked with little plastic angels. They’re photographs of an absence—the quiet revelations of the character of a service member who will never return—and they’re photographs of a wound that does not heal—a family’s grief preserved in physical form.

Gilbertson says he wanted viewers to feel that the recent dead “weren’t just names and ranks of people who had died in a foreign place,” and he is unsettlingly successful in that aim. Looking at his work feels uncomfortably transgressive, an intimate glimpse at unbearable pain. The lovingly kept spaces remind me of the inscription on the gravestone of a British soldier from World War I: “If love could have saved him, he would not have died.”

And yet, stranger than the photographs themselves is the mere fact of their necessity, that we must be reminded that our military dead are more than just names. And it seems to me that the defining feature of our modern wars is not any kind of technological change—no matter how startling the deployment of drones is, or the use of social media by combatants—but rather the degree to which the average citizen of a Western democracy has been able to divorce himself from responsibility for wars waged on his behalf, and with his tax dollars.

When I was in Iraq, in 2007, I worried that people in the United States weren’t paying any attention to our wars, and coming home did little to assuage my fears. I remember getting a phone call at a bar in Brooklyn telling me that someone I knew had been shot in Afghanistan. The information made the scene before me feel somehow obscene. I knew the political decisions made at

Turning Point Thousands enter Syria to join ISIS despite global counterterrorism efforts.

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What Defines a Modern Warrior?

The photojournalist Ashley Gilbertson has captured the bedrooms of participants in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as part of a project to remember who they were. Some parents have kept their children’s personal effects exactly the same as when they left. Army Pfc. Karina S. Lau, 20, died in Fallujah, Iraq, when her helicopter was shot down by insurgents on Nov. 2, 2003. She was from Livingston, California. Her bedroom was photographed in December 2009. Ashley Gilbertson / VII

Police discovered the remains of 71 migrants inside a refrigerated truck parked along a highway near Neusiedl am See, Austria, on Aug. 27, 2015. At the same time, European leaders were meeting to devise ways to cope with the migration crisis. Dieter Nagl/Agence France­Presse — Getty Images

home ultimately determined whether people lived or died in Iraq, and yet America seemed so utterly disconnected from overseas. I was part of what Andrew Bacevich calls the “1 percent army,” America’s allvolunteer force. At that time, that’s what seemed to explain my feeling of dislocation, and I had a fantasy that bringing back the draft would solve all our problems.

And yet in retrospect, I can see that my time in Iraq was marked by a fairly vigorous public debate about policy. When Gen. David Petraeus testified before Congress in September 2007 about the outcome of the troop surge, there was a flurry of political grandstanding, with an anti-war organization taking out an inflammatory fullpage ad in The New York Times, news networks giving extensive (if often poor) analysis, and various US senators from both parties grilling the architects of US military policy.

The guiding strategy back then was counterinsurgency, which the US Government Counterinsurgency Guide describes as “the blend of comprehensive civilian and military efforts designed to simultaneously contain insurgency and address its root causes.” Because that was our philosophy, and because we had significant ground forces actually responsible for the various regions of Iraq, the metrics discussed were all related to stability—Petraeus arguing that overall security incidents had declined, civilian deaths were down and Iraqi security forces were stepping up, while senators sharply questioned whether the divisions in Iraqi society would make those gains illusory, or whether the limited achievements the military could provide were worth the extended effort, or whether any of it was making America safer (the general admitted he didn’t know).

Those sorts of exchanges seem increasingly rare in the current age: the age of counterterrorism. We don’t send ground troops to hold territory anymore; we send airstrikes or drones or special operations forces to kill or capture our enemies. At best, we put a few advisers on the ground, as we did during the early 1960s in Vietnam.

Instead of trying to lift up whole societies, we’ve narrowed our sights to the hunting and killing of our enemies. What was once a tactic

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his country’s military is not in a good position to ensure that, two years later, once he’s done with training and pre-deployment workups, his country will provide him with a wellthought-out military strategy to execute.

Ensuring that he has that strategy is a job for all of us. If we make the wrong decision after a period of vigorous public debate, it’s one kind of collective failure. If we make the wrong decision in the absence of any public debate, it’s something different altogether.

Which brings me to another photograph, one very different from Gilbertson’s. It’s of a truck that was found abandoned on a highway near the Austrian border with Hungary. I saw the image while sitting in a cafe in Vienna. As photographs of stationary trucks on the side of a highway go, this one was fairly dull, with few visual details to latch on to. What impresses it on my mind is nothing about the image itself, but the knowledge that inside the truck were the decomposing bodies of 59 men, eight women and four children, likely Syrian refugees trying to reach Germany. They’d suffocated. When found, their bodies were so decomposed and drenched in bodily fluids that it made identification almost impossible.

This was before the Paris attacks, before it became popular to call such people “potential terrorists.” Naively, I thought the humanitarian response would be clear. Instead, I worried about our ability to deal with the crisis they were fleeing. With so many ways to shield military action from public review, politicians have been relieved of the responsibility to present a coherent vision to the public. Is it any surprise to find that this results in chaos?

The policy that has not been forced to withstand public scrutiny is unlikely to withstand the far harsher tests imposed by its practice in reality. And yet this is the state of modern warfare—violence, suffering and a sustained lack of serious moral attention. n

Phil Klay is a Marine Corps veteran of the Iraq War and the author of the short story collection Redeployment.

Hannah Dunphy

within the broader military and civilian efforts that characterized counterinsurgency has now become the whole thing, never mind that it seems to be alienating wide segments of the globe.

It’s not that the lofty goals of counterinsurgency have become any less essential to quelling extremism; it’s just that we’ve realized that we’re either not good enough or not patient enough to achieve them, so why not switch to something we can do? As former Army intelligence officer John Amble has argued, though “engaging vulnerable populations in order to degrade popular support for al-Qaeda remains a strategic necessity ... even an extremely generous accounting of our efforts along these lines would deem them a middling success.”

Compare that to the revolutionary change in terms of the tempo of special operations.

According to Marc Ambinder and D.B. Grady, early in the Iraq War, in April 2004, Joint Special Operations Command conducted fewer than a dozen operations in a month, but by July 2006 the pace had moved up to 250, and with the increasing use of drones our ability to project targeted military power has only increased.

Former Lt. Col. John Nagl describes our special operations command as “an almost industrialscale counterterrorism killing machine.”

Perhaps even better for politicians, since drones and special-forces raids don’t put troops in the position of holding territory, a mission to kill or capture a target can be marked off as an unqualified success independently of whether

it has a positive security impact on the region where it takes place. Our current interventions are less costly (to us); they happen out of the public eye (you can’t embed a journalist with special operations forces, let alone with a drone); and on a pure, case-by-case, targetedstrike-by-targeted-strike basis, they’re better able to deliver their promised results (by killing or capturing highly unpleasant and dangerous people). Seemingly, there’s a lot less to argue about, even as violence and instability spiral out of control.

So the modern warrior operates in a space increasingly isolated from serious public attention. I felt alienated as a member of the fraction of America serving in uniform — and now our military policy is carried out by only a fraction of that fraction.

Even more troublesome, the United States is still operating under a decade-old Authorization for the Use of Military Force, and aside from Sens. Tim Kaine and Jeff Flake, who have proposed a new AUMF, Congress has shown little interest in debating a new authorization with less open-ended aims. In arguing for action, Kaine quoted James Madison: “The Constitution supposes what the history of all governments demonstrates: that the Executive is the branch of power most interested in war and most prone to it. It has accordingly, with studied care, vested the question of war in the Legislature.” And with equally studied care, most members of Congress have considered how a vote on military policy might force them to take a thoughtful stand on a remarkably complex issue that might later become an albatross around their necks, and have vested that question of war right back in the executive.

No wonder the first contentious war-related question in the current US presidential campaign is not about what strategy we should be pursuing in Yemen, or Iraq, or Afghanistan, or Libya, or Syria, or Pakistan, or the Philippines, or the Horn of Africa, or Nigeria, or ... well, you get the idea. We’ve been busy. It is: Should we have invaded Iraq in 2003? To the service member curious about whether or not his country is serious about its military policy, the answer is clear.

The men and women I served with in 2007 were honestly trying to create a better Iraq, and risked their lives to do it. We experienced tantalizing successes, and allowed ourselves to believe we’d achieved a more durable stability than really existed. The health and security of Iraqi society mattered to us, and it continues to. Many of us formed emotional ties to the place and its people. And many of us came back with a deeply altered relationship to our own citizenship.

The 18-, 19- or 20-year old who signs up for

Crystal Ball

Illustration: Roger Mello

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What If We Could Redesign Our DNA? AS GENETIC RESEARCHERS EXPAND THE FRONTIERS OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE, IT SEEMS INEVITABLE THAT SOMEDAY, SOME INDIVIDUALS WILL ALTER THEIR OWN DNA IN AN ATTEMPT TO GET AHEAD. WHAT CHANGES WILL THEY MAKE?

bidding crowd on the exchange floor

f you could alter your DNA, what changes would you make? Would you choose to grow a stronger jawline or add muscles that would help you run faster? Have you ever wished for gills or wings?

A team of Chinese researchers may have been asking themselves the same questions when they announced in 2015 that they had tried to alter the DNA of nonviable human embryos. Their experiment failed: Many of the embryos showed unexpected mutations.

Scientists around the world called for a moratorium on all such research, but perhaps someday some individuals will try to change their DNA, regardless of the risks.

How would people redesign their bodies, if they could? We can’t anticipate the technology involved in such a makeover, and have instead imagined that you will step into a booth, enter your wish on a screen and emerge transformed. The Brazilian illustrator Roger Mello has fancifully envisioned the results.

1. Profession: Opera singer Wish: To be able to sing in chorus, so there is no one else onstage to distract the audience

8. Profession: Bureaucrat Wish: To develop the dexterity to rubber-stamp, refer or defer requests without staying one second past quitting time 9. Profession: Fisherman Wish: To grow fins so I can stalk the fish wherever they swim

2. Profession: Photographer Wish: To steady my hand and eye so I snap the shutter without shimmy or flutter

10. Profession: Actor Wish: To adopt whatever identity a casting call requires

3. Profession: Philosopher Wish: To fly, in hopes that my thoughts likewise won’t be earthbound

11. Profession: Executive Wish: To clone myself so I can be everywhere at once, thus achieving work-life balance

4. Profession: Astronaut Wish: To tap energy from the stars so I can see what spring is like on Jupiter and Mars

12. Profession: Novelist Wish: To expand my imagination so that my writing demands less perspiration n

5. Profession: Spy Wish: To transmogrify so I can peek through any crack or crevice — and perhaps creep through it, too 6. Profession: Professional cyclist Wish: To become so lean and steely that my steed and I are one 7. Profession: Stock trader Wish: To expand my hand amid the

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Silvio Cavalcante

I

By Roger Mello

Roger Mello is a Brazilian writer, playwright and illustrator known for the more than 100 children’s books he has illustrated, including Zubair e os Labirintos and Selvagem.

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Illustration: Luisa Vera

A Fast and Flat Fashion World

In a move away from the usual exclusive access that accompanies most fashion shows, Givenchy offered tickets to the general public to its spring 2016 women’s runway show during New York Fashion Week in September. Attendees in front of a set by the artist Marina Abramovic made of recycled wood and aluminum siding which also featured performance artists on platforms.

Stefania Curto for The New York Times

Turning Point Social media

By Jeremy Langmead platforms introduce efore I got out of bed on a recent morning, or even opened my mouth, I visited 14 cities, buy buttons found out what 64 friends were up to the and social previous night, checked out what several shopping movie stars were wearing to a party in Los Angeles

B

and bought a camel coat by Bottega Veneta, which was delivered that afternoon. And then my day began.

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A Fast and Flat Fashion World

Chromat, an architectural sportswear label, presented a new line of smart clothing featuring technology from Intel, the processor manufacturer, during New York Fashion Week in September. Fernando Leon/Getty Images for Chromat

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ads. And now Twitter and YouTube are adding “buy” buttons.

Some of the fashion industry has adjusted to this fast-paced, flattened world. Burberry lets some selected viewers watch its inviteonly runway shows in real time, and buy some of the pieces with the click of a button. This past September the US retailer Kohl’s matched looks on its website to the reality TV star and designer Lauren Conrad’s runway show, which it streamed on the social media app Periscope. The people watching the show from their smartphones were able to share their views and images as quickly as those seated in the front row. Meanwhile, Givenchy offered the general public the chance to get tickets to its Marina Abramovic-directed fashion show in New York this September via a unique URL. The very idea of an exclusive front row seat now seems outmoded. In one way or another, we’re all sitting next to Anna Wintour today.

Showing collections on a catwalk six months before they appear in the store no longer seems so timely; forcing fashion editors to spend two months on the road watching those catwalk shows seems unnecessarily tedious; and making people leave their home or office and travel each time they want to buy something from a shop seems as old-fashioned and quaint as a Beatrix Potter tale.

The fashion industry now needs to look upon technology as a VIP guest at the party, not a gatecrasher. That’s why the French heritage brand Hermes has just collaborated on a smartwatch with Apple; why Intel was a major presence at New York Fashion Week in the fall, with its sensors embedded in responsive garments; why brands now use the data they

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collect from interactions with potential customers on social media platforms to help determine what ends up for sale on the racks a few weeks later.

Of course, there are dissenters who disdain a fashion world that’s driven by technology’s pace. Do all those bloggers and vloggers have the experience and trained eye to know what they’re talking about? What happens when editors no longer curate and help cut through the misinformed rambling? Instagram filters make the world look too rosy, and it seems that everything now has to be tailored to look good on a smartphone.

E-tailers, for example, know that brighter colors look better on a screen; fashion houses now create catwalk sets that will look better on Instagram than they do if you’re actually in the room.

These trends stretch far beyond fashion. A few months ago, I adopted two rescue kittens from an animal charity in London. The group was thrilled that I was giving them a home, and relieved I’d chosen the black kittens because they were hard to find homes for.

Why? Because they don’t show up so well on Instagram.

Like it or not, information is getting faster, the world is getting smaller and our capacity for newness is growing larger. It’s a superUber world out there—one that enables more brands to interact with more people in more locations more quickly. We now talk with, not at, our consumers. We live in a world where technology enables an Olympic hero named Bruce to transition into a female pinup called Caitlyn in front of almost 3 million Twitter followers and bring needed attention to an often misunderstood community, and where Prince Charles’ second cousin marries an American fashion maven and executive whom he first met on Instagram.

Our destinies have always been in our own hands, but never more so than today. Keep yours charged. n

Sean Thomas / 10 Magazine

My iPhone kick-starts the day. Technology and social media have turned us into digital nomads able to roam the world and converse in almost any country—thanks to the international language of emoticons—without even leaving the room, or bed, for that matter.

They have also opened up countless new outlets for style inspiration and information—ones that seem more accessible, immediate and intimate than the fashion tomes on the newsstands. Taylor Swift posts an Instagram picture of the outfit she wore at an awards ceremony and suddenly her 49 million followers can consider buying that sparkly Ashish ensemble, too. Tommy Ton, the influential Canadian photographer and fashion blogger, uploads a street-style picture of a guy looking cool in a baseball top and men start to dig theirs out of their closets. Makeup lessons can be garnered for free from teenage vloggers who are as adept with their media as they are with their mascara. Who needs a Vogue editor anymore?

Everyone is now style literate. Even men— though some still pretend otherwise—know about dress codes, trends and sartorial rules.

In the pre-Web days, men couldn’t really ask questions about how to dress. Unlike women, they wouldn’t dream of asking a colleague or buddy for advice, but now they can consult that discreet Google box and no one will know they tried to square-knot a bow tie.

Our purchasing habits have also been quickly changing. We’re now shopping more and more on our smartphones. It’s been reported that a third of fashion and luxury e-commerce transactions in the United States were made on mobile devices in the first quarter of 2015. That percentage is even higher in Japan and South Korea, where more than 50% of e-commerce transactions happened on mobile devices during that same period.

Fashion brands now have to cater to customers who are constantly on the move. They expect to have a relationship with a retailer or brand on whichever platform they choose at anytime. As a result, today we can shop not just with a click of a button, but with a swipe or a like. More and more social media platforms are becoming shoppable. Pinterest, where users share style and design ideas gathered from across the Web, has moved from the browsing and aspiring mindset to the buying one: This past summer it enabled its users to buy products they found on the site.

Shazam, an app originally created to identify music, now enables you to buy jeans. Retailers link to product pages from their Instagram

WHO NEEDS A GLOSSY FASHION TOME ANYMORE WHEN YOU HAVE INSTAGRAM?

Jeremy Langmead is the brand and content director of Mr Porter, a global online retail destination for men’s style.

Alysa Salen/BusinessMirror

The ALDUB Nation Creating Cultur and Market 126 Turning Points

n: ultures

I

By Tito Genova Valiente

t started with a look on split-screen television. The new recruit was a young, unknown comedienne in the very old and tested noontime show Eat Bulaga.

Looking at her was a young man, not obscure but not popular either. Typical of the actors in the country, Alden Richards was half-American, with mestizo looks favored by the local audience. Alden looked perplexed as the young woman proceeded to exhibit her odd style, the dub mash: an act where someone follows dubbed lines or songs or sounds as if they are emanating from her person. The girl was introduced as Yaya Dub, which literally means a nanny who dubs.

The second day, the TV program went on a split screen again: this time, our young man showed more or less interest in the female comic. The following days, the two talked: Yaya Dub going into dub mash and Alden doing a lip-synch of love songs. The audience went wild and got hooked. The new loveteam on free TV was born.

The loveteam, however, was not merely your regular partnering. In fact, the young man and the young girl seemed star-crossed.

People around them did not appear to favor the idea that they should be in any kind of relationship. It did not help that they technically were not together, or had not seen each other face to face. The nanny could not talk like your regular girl; she relied on sounds that came from nowhere and everywhere. She was an alien in a program that counted on intimacy, regularity and familiarity.

Eat Bulaga is the longest-running variety show in the country. It is noted for loyalty of its cast, comedians, actors, singers and dancers who have stayed on in the show. When newcomers are introduced, people do not really notice them as being special. This was the case with Alden Richards as it was with the new girl, Maine Mendoza. If they have to be effective in the program, they need to be keen about improvisation, for this sets the show apart from its rivals. Once the two, Alden and Yaya Dub, were linked, they had to work with three of the show’s insanely creative talents—Jose Manalo, Paolo Ballesteros and Wally Bayola. The three had been running the hottest segment of the program, which even the founders of the show—the trio of Vic Sotto, Tito Sotto and Joey de Leon— watched over as solicitous parents. This is the part where Jose, Paolo and Wally visit the

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home of the person whose name has been picked from the studio. There is nothing original about this act but, in the hands of the three comic, the visits made to homes, usually of very poor viewers of the program, border on the intrusive, inane and irreverent. The trio, by their sheer wit and charm, never get to be abrasive even when the deepest secrets of the prospective winner are explored. No topics are sacred during this visit, including the marital status of the father or the mother selected, or the sexual orientation of the person visited. This is the scenario that the tandem of Alden and Yaya Dub joined in, and sort of invaded. Here began the adventures of the duo that sent the ratings of Eat Bulaga soaring, and its income higher.

As the days went on, and as the stories behind Alden in the studio became expanded, the persona of Yaya Dub also deepened and turned ridiculously complex and complicated. The trio of Jose, Paolo and Wally, on the one hand, had to literally put on a new dress.

They would all become the lola, or grandmothers, to Yaya Dub who, it would turn out later, has a secret. The characters had secrets galore! The program exploited this part of the narrative, complete with missing diaries or diaries that, when found, get snatched again from the hands of the rightful owners.

Of the three comedians, the lead grandmother would be given to Wally who, as the show continued and as the plot thickens as the wages of Alden and Yaya Dub, became the voice of the tale. There is something sordid and redemptive about Wally: months before the AlDub phenomenon crashed nearly all social-media records, Wally figured in a sex scandal. He was a pariah for a while in a nation that speaks vocally about its rigid

Alysa Salen/BusinessMirror

The AlDub Nation: Creating Cultures and Market

For all the radical twists and tweaks of the story as it unfolds from noontime, the story of a genial young man and a lovely girl with propensity to cross her eyes, there is tradition, family orientation and that good old thing called societal values.

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moral standards (observing them is another matter). Returning as the grandmother of all grandmothers, costumed as if “she” was going to an English afternoon tea, Wally not only recovered his popularity but doubled his fame and fortune.

Wally’s character started as a villain orchestrating the kidnapping of Alden, much to the shock of everyone. Was the show going violent and action-filled?

Fans were promised that Alden and Yaya Dub would be given a chance to see each other personally. In October of 2015, as Eat Bulaga celebrated its 36th anniversary, Alden and Yaya Dub finally met. Indeed, they met and danced before the entire nation (that was the feeling) in what is touted to be the world’s largest indoor arena owned by the Iglesia Ni Cristo, one of the biggest religious groups in the Philippines outside the Catholic Church. That episode merited some 41 million tweets, a record which is said to have broken the Twitter record set when Brazil was defeated by Germany in the 2013 soccer game. And the hashtag #AlDubEBTamangPanahon went on to global success.

Lola Nidora, as played by Wally, initiated the phrase “sa tamang panahon,” which means “in the right time.” This even became the slogan for a Coca-Cola ad.

The Philippines is one of the social-media-crazy nations in the world. It is not, therefore, a wonder that the AlDub phenomenon is greatly aided by social-media applications. For the record, data show Maine as the thirdfastest growing celebrity on Twitter, following Taylor Swift and Katy Perry.

Outside, however, of the social media lies the power of this team. The country or a great portion of the population that swears by and swoons over the love stories—they are multiple—of Alden and Yaya Dub has embraced the label, AlDub nation.

But where lies the magic of this phenomenon?

For all the radical twists and tweaks of the story as it unfolds from noontime, the story of a genial young man and a lovely girl with propensity to cross her eyes, there is tradition, family orientation and that good old thing called societal values. Remove the trappings of the three ladies who dance with the energy of teenagers and who can rap with the gusto of hoodies and who have not since then removed their dresses and gowns and or doffed the wild hats, there are the figures of the elderly with wisdom as old as love and marriage. In the expanding universe of AlDub nation, love is eternal and patient and is not made into a game, as Wally’s character often says. The Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines, buffeted by critics who do not believe anymore in the institution of marriage, found an ally in, all of things, the variety show that had its share of sexy dancers and obscene jokes.

The social capital of Eat Bulaga is found in ideas that have eluded realization basically among Filipinos. The phrase sa tamang panahon rallies everyone to believe in things that can stand the test of time, like fidelity and patience. Persistence of the good kind is always invoked by the grandmothers. Alden sometimes gets so passionate and he forgets this adage, but he is soon corrected. The senior citizens, basically voiceless despite the claims of many, get a hearing in the episodes of AlDub. No one knows exactly when the grandmothers went for

Turning Point The resounding success of Eat Bulaga has created a new platform for advertisement and advocacy. a good turn and when the supposedly short and cute course on first love gradually transformed itself into lessons on good manners and right conduct. The fact is, real tears and true sentiment are two elements that the show is never short of. This show that is called a kalyeserye, or street series, is the first in the country. The series is a natural candidate for a contemporary theater of the absurd. Anything that takes place in the most public of Philippine places—the street—requires utmost sincerity. Nothing can be hidden from the person on the streets; no one is more difficult to persuade than the people who face hunger on the street.

On all counts, Eat Bulaga offers all the requisites of an excellent show: a confidence that it is telling a good story. The producers listen to, not to the commercial market, but to the voice of old Philippines, where men are gentlemen and women are ladies. Wealth is ephemeral and the grandmothers of Yaya Dub lose their money and mansion, but they chose to have all in the name of love.

The resounding success of Eat Bulaga has created a new platform for advertisement and advocacy. Alden and Maine are two of the most popular endorsers, with the presence sometimes of Wally, the fabulous madwoman of the street, of global fast food, telcos and soft drinks as old as any variety programs.

Eat Bulaga has rediscovered what has been missing in many variety shows in the country—the gem of simple short stories that have equal servings of love and loss of love, of having fun at the expense of oneself, including one’s notions of getting rich and being poor. n

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Tito Genova Valiente is a public anthropologist. He maintains two columns for the BusinessMirror: “Reeling,” which is on film and media criticism, and “Annotations,” which is on societies and cultures. The author is a film critic and is part of the Manunuri ng Pelikulang Pilipino, the oldest and premier film critics’ group in the country. He once served as chairman of the said group.

Andreitsalko | Dreamstime.com

Taking Philippine to Greater Height

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e Investments ights

By Adrian S. Cristobal & Rafaelita M. Aldaba

T

he Philippines continues to exhibit remarkable economic performance, growing at an average of 6.6 percent in the last five years. This has been driven largely by a strong manufacturing industry, as it posted an average growth of 8.1 percent during the same period. The government is securing the future of manufacturing through its new industrial policy. Despite moderate growth in 2015, the economic potential and long-term prospects remain promising, which indicates that the country is a good place to invest.

Turning Point The Philippines needs to cope with the quick pace at which other countries are introducing reforms to enhance their competitiveness.

Since 2010, the country has been receiving credit-rating upgrades from top international global debt watchers. Recently, Japan Credit Rating Agency Ltd. (JCR) upgraded the Philippines’ credit rating from “BBB” to “BBB+”.

Standard & Poor’s Financial Services (S&P) gave the Philippines a credit rating of “BBB Stable,” the highest rating recorded in the country’s history. Improvements in investment ratings reflect the country’s sound fiscal and external position, generally stable social and

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political situations, and increased prospects for sustained economic growth. This positive outlook is attributed to the stable economic progress brought about by the governance reforms of the Aquino administration.

Predictions also show that the Philippines would become one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia and the “next Asian miracle.” HSBC forecasts that the country would be the 16th-largest economy by 2050. S&P considers the Philippines as a

Chun-tso Lin | Dreamstime.com

Taking Philippine Investments to Greater Heights

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main growth engine in Southeast Asia and projected to expand by 6 percent per annum over the next few years. The country’s expansion is expected to be driven by robust consumption and investment growth.

The Philippines’ investment position Given its strong macroeconomic fundamentals and political stability, domestic and international business confidence in the country has been revived. Total domestic investment increased from P3.9 trillion during the period 2007 to 2010, to P5.4 trillion for the more recent period 2011 to 2014. In terms of share to GDP, this went up from an average of around 20 percent to 21 percent.

Total approved investments from the Philippine Economic Zone Authority, Subic, Clark, and the Bureau of Investments increased from $10.4 billion in 2010 to $17 billion in 2014. Investments by Filipino nationals have comprised the bulk of the total approved investments, with shares ranging from 60 percent to more than 75 percent. The manufacturing industry has received a large share of the total accounting for an average of 26 percent during the period 2011 to 2014.

In terms of foreign direct investments (FDI), a rising trend has been evident since 2010. In 2014 FDI amounted to $6.2 billion, the highest level recorded over the last 10 years. FDI grew by 66 percent, which is one of the highest in Southeast Asia. Strong investor confidence is evident as FDI reached $4.54 billion in September 2015.

In 2012 manufacturing FDI registered the highest inflows recorded since 2005, amounting to $1.8 billion and which accounted for 55 percent of total FDI inflows. Though in 2013 and 2014 FDI inflows to manufacturing declined, but as of September 2015, FDI to manufacturing already amounted to $606 million, surpassing the 2013 and 2014 levels of $216 million and $209 million, respectively.

Investment prospects in manufacturing are expected to remain favorable as an increasing number of countries express interest to invest in the sector. Japanese manufacturing firms, such as Bemac Uzushio Co. Ltd., Brothers Industries Ltd., Canon, Funai Electric Co. Ltd., Seiko Epson Corp., Arkray Inc., JMS, Terumo, Tokai Medical Products and Tsuneishi, including Biotech Japan Corp., are keen on investing or expanding their businesses in sectors such as office equipment, electronics, ships and medical devices.

In the 2015 survey of the Japan Bank for

International Cooperation (JBIC Survey), the Philippines climbed to eighth place from 11th place in 2014 among the “most promising countries” where Japanese manufacturers might expand in the next three years. The major reasons cited for investing in the Philippines were the future growth of the domestic market, inexpensive labor and supply base for assemblers.

Challenges to Philippine attractiveness to investors Improved credit ratings and increased FDI inflows have resulted from the country’s rising competitiveness. In the last five years, the country’s competitiveness has significantly improved. According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), the Philippines is one of the most improved in global competitiveness.

Overall, the country soared from rank 85th in 2010 and 2011 to 47th in 2015 and 2016, moving up 48 notches in the rankings.

Despite the improvement, further work needs to be done to strengthen the country’s performance in specific competitiveness subindicators. The Philippines needs to cope with the quick pace at which other countries are introducing reforms to enhance their competitiveness. In infrastructure, the Philippines ranks 90th out of the 140 countries. In terms of ease of doing business, the Philippines is ranked 103rd, while Thailand and Vietnam are ranked 47th and 90th, respectively. Similarly, in the JBIC 2015 survey, the major concern of Japanese investors was the country’s underdeveloped infrastructure. To become a manufacturing hub, the Philippines needs to have not only large market access and skilled work force, but also relatively good infrastructure and conducive business environment.

Investments as source of growth Along with other intensified government efforts to respond to these challenges, a new industrial policy is being implemented where the Department of Trade and Industry-Board of Investments (DTI-BOI) acts as facilitator in addressing horizontal and vertical constraints preventing new firms from entering the market or existing firms from moving up the value chain. Aimed at creating globally competitive industries, the major strategy of the new industrial policy focuses on coordinating the implementation of (a) horizontal measures to address the high cost of power and logistics,

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reduce the cost of doing business, and intensify investment promotion; and (b) vertical measures to address gaps in industry supply and value chains, expand the domestic market base as springboard for exports, along with measures to promote human resource development, SME development, technology upgrading, innovation and green growth.

Industry road maps have been formulated by the private sector in close coordination with the DTI-BOI. The industry road maps contain the vision, goals, targets, and strategies on how to improve competitiveness and position our industries in global value chains. An Industry Development Council has been established to serve as venue for coordination with other government agencies, monitor the implementation of industry road maps, and to formulate policies and programs that would solve these horizontal and vertical constraints.

Industry road maps provide the direction where the government should devote its energy and resources. Amid rising globalization, road maps help in positioning Philippine industries, and maximize trade and investment opportunities arising from the Asean Economic Community and other free-trade agreements.

Investments are integral to a country’s growth and development, and are crucial in increasing productivity, employment, and introduction of new products, processes and innovation. As policy-makers set the foundation for upgrading industries as key to attracting investments, creating quality jobs, and transforming the economy; the future outlook for the country remains bright. The positive momentum is likely to remain in the medium term, especially if the next administration could sustain these reform initiatives. n

Adrian S. Cristobal, a lawyer, is Secretary of the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and managing head of the Board of Investments. Dr. Rafaelita M.Aldaba, an economist, is Assistant Secretary for Industry Development of the DTI of the Philippines.

FRANCESCO RIDOLFI /dreamstime.com

THE MOBILE TELECOMMUNICAT SECTOR: A history

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TIONS ry

By Edgardo V. Cabarios First-Generation Mobile Telecommunications System (1G) In May 1988 the National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) promulgated Memorandum Circular (MC) 5-11-88 prescribing rules and regulations on the establishment and operation of cellular mobile radio systems and reallocating frequency bands 825-845 megahertz (MHz) paired with 870-890MHz and 890-915MHz paired with 935-960MHz for Cellular Mobile Telephone System (CMTS) networks. In July of the same year, pursuant to Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC) Ministry Circular 82-046 (Policy of Integration provides among others: integration of voice carriers), Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. (PLDT), being the national voice carrier at that time, was authorized by NTC to install, operate and maintain CMTS network and offer cellular phone service to serve 3,000 subscribers. PLDT opted to use the advanced mobile phone system (AMPS), an American CMTS system standard in the 800MHz band.

NTC assigned AMPS Band “A” (825-835MHz paired with 870-880MHz) to PLDT. After only three months of commercial operations the subscribers reached 3,000. PLDT applied and was authorized by the NTC to expand its CMTS network to serve 10,000 subscribers.

NTC authorized Express Telecommunications Co. Inc. (Extelcom) and Pilipino Telephone Co. (Piltel) to install, operate and maintain CMTS networks and offer cellular phone service using the AMPS standard system in December 1988 and October 1990, respectively. The frequency band assigned to PLDT in its CMTS network, AMPS Band “A”, was transferred/assigned to Piltel. AMPS Band “B” (835-845MHZ paired with 880890MHz) was assigned to Extelcom. PLDT in 1990 decided to let Piltel serve its 10,000 subscribers.

PLDT questioned the authority granted to Extelcom, arguing that the franchise of Extelcom does not allow it (Extelcom) to operate a mobile telephone network and offer mobile telephone service to the general public before the Court of Appeals. The case went up to the Supreme Court. In 1991 the Court ruled that the CMTS authority granted to Extelcom was legal. With Extelcom’s entry into the mobile market delayed by more than two years, Piltel enjoyed a headstart.

The growth of the mobile market was slow and steady.

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Second-Generation Mobile Telecommunications System (2G) In the third quarter of 1992 the Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) issued Department Circular (DC) 92-269 superseding DC 90-253 to open the mobile telecommunications market to more competition. DC 90-253 limited the number of nationwide CMTS operators to two. The commission, in compliance with DC 92-269, issued MC 20-12-92 reallocating frequency bands 824-845MHz paired with 869890MHz (21MHz x 2) and 890-915MHz paired with 935-960MHz (25MHz x 2) for CMTS networks and prescribing rules for the authorization of additional mobile telecommunications network and service providers.

The commission authorized three more CMTS operators, namely: Smart Communications Inc. (Smart), Isla Communications Corp. (now Innove Communications Inc.) and Globe Telecom Inc. (Globe) on May 17, 1993, September 29, 1993, and September 30, 1993, respectively. Smart and Globe were assigned 7.5Mhz x 2 each and Innove 10MHz x 2 within 890-915MHz paired with 935960MHz band. The other applications for CMTS authority were archived due to nonavailability of frequencies for CMTS after the reallocated frequencies were all assigned to Smart, Innove and Globe. Globe and Innove opted to build GSM networks (Global System for Mobile, a digital European CMTS standard system), while Smart opted to install ETACS (Extended Total Access Communications System, United Kingdom CMTS standard system) network. In less than four years, Smart had taken over Piltel as the leader in the CMTS market.

In 1997 the commission issued MC 09-1097 setting the rules and the criteria for the selection of qualified applicants to bid for the assignment of the allocated frequencies for public mobile telephone service (PMTS) in the 1800MHz and 1900MHz frequency bands. The commission has received 21 applications for PMTS operating in the 1800MHz band (known as personal communications networks, PCN, in Europe) and 1900MHz band (known as personal communications system, PCS, in North America).The process, however, was stopped because of a legal issue raised by Bell Telecommunications Inc. (Belltel) on the criteria used in the selection of the prequalified applicants.

In 1998, the short messaging service or text messaging service (SMS) started to gain popularity, and the demand for GSM cell

The Mobile Telecommunications Sector: A History

Turning Point phones increased exponentially. The CMTS operators requested for additional frequencies to serve the increasing demand for GSM cellphones. In the same year, the commission called the PCS/PCN applicants to a conference to get their concurrence for the assignment of 1800MHz band to existing CMTS operators to respond and address the fast increasing demand for SMS. The PCS/PCN applicants concurred with the plan, provided that their applications will be treated as applications for the third-generation mobile telecommunications system (3G).

The commission, in 1999, issued MC 03-0399 reallocating some frequencies in the 1800MHz band as additional frequencies for existing CMTS operators.

The commission in 2000 issued MC 09-032000 reallocating more frequencies in the 1800MHz band for assignment to existing CMTS operators and to other public telecommunications entities that will be authorized to install CMTS networks and provide CMTS services.

Bayan Telecommunications Inc. (Bayantel) and Digital Telecommunications Philippines Inc. (Digitel) were granted authorizations to install CMTS networks and provide CMTS services in 2000.

Initially, Sun Cellular and Bayantel were assigned 10MHz x 2 frequency band in the 1800MHz band each. The authority granted to Digitel was later transferred to Digitel Mobile Philippines Inc. (Sun Cellular), a wholly owned subsidiary of Digitel. Extelcom questioned the authority granted to Bayantel before the Court of Appeals. The Supreme Court finally ruled in favor of Bayantel in 2003.

In 2003, Sun Cellular launched its GSM mobile service offering unlimited call and text services. This market disruption strategy proved to be effective as in a short span of time, Sun Cellular attracted more than 1 million subscribers.

Globe and Smart filed a case before the NTC seeking to stop Sun Cellular from offering unlimited call and text services. Globe and Smart argued that Sun Cellular was engaging in predatory pricing. They, however, changed their argument to noncompliance to prescribed minimum service performance standard, sensing that Sun Cellular could not engage in predatory pricing because only incumbents with market power can engage in predatory pricing. NTC ruled in favor of Sun Cellular. Globe and Smart followed suit. They also offered unlimited call and text services.

In 2003, Bayantel was placed under court receivership and court rehabilitation. Bayantel

In 2003, Sun Cellular launched its GSM mobile service offering unlimited call and text services. This market disruption strategy proved to be effective as in a short span of time, Sun Cellular attracted more than 1 million subscribers.

failed to install its authorized CMTS network.

Bayantel, however, continued to pay its annual spectrum user fee (SUF) of P5 million.

The number of GSM subscribers increased exponentially from 1999 to 2002 because of the popularity of SMS. The Philippines has been tagged as the text capital of the world.

In 2005, Multimedia Telephony Inc. (now ABS-CBN Convergence Inc.) and Next Mobile Inc. (now Now Telecoms Inc.) were authorized to install, operate and maintain CMTS networks and offer CMTS services using their existing frequency assignments.

Due to insufficient frequency assignments, ABS-CBN Convergence Inc. (ABS Converge) and Now Telecom Inc. (NTI) failed to install their respective CMTS networks. ABS Converge opted to enter into a network sharing agreement with Globe.

In 2007, Bell Telecom Inc. was authorized to install, operate and maintain a CMTS network and offer mobile telecommunications services.

Third-Generation Mobile Telecommunications System (3G) In September 2004, the commission released draft rules and regulations on 3G. In November 2004, the first public hearing on the proposed MC on 3G was conducted. One of the issues that were raised during the public hearing was the legality of imposing upfront payments and bidding. The second public hearing was conducted in April 2005. In August 2005 MC 07-08-2005 was released and published. MC 07-08-2005 reallocated frequencies in the 2100MHz band for 3G to be assigned to five qualified applicants and prescribed, among others: the criteria for the selection of the qualified applicants for the assignment of the allocated 3G frequencies, the annual SUF to be paid by and obligations of the qualified 3G. In December 2005, the commission released its decision awarding 3G frequencies to four applicants who passed the criteria pursuant to MC 07-08-2005. In as much as the number of qualified applicants is less than the available 3G spectrum, no bidding was conducted and the 3G frequencies were assigned on January 4, 2006.

The assignees were given 15 days to pay the prescribed SUF for 2006. Thereafter, 3G operators

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are required to pay annual SUF not later than 31 January of each year.

Smart was assigned 15MHz x 2 for submitting the best network roll-out plan. Globe, Sun Cellular and CURE were assigned 10MHz x 2 each.

In 2009, the majority shares of the companies that owned CURE were acquired by Smart.

Smart begun operating the 3G network of CURE and offered 3G mobile services using the brand name Red Mobile.

Due to increasing demand for high-speed data networks, 3G networks metamorphosed into High Speed Packet Access (HSPA).

Competition in the Mobile Market In 1994, the number of mobile telecommunications players increased from two to five, namely: Piltel, Extelcom, Globe, Innove and Smart. Globe and Innove opted to operate the GSM network (digital CMTS networks), while Piltel, Extelcom and Smart operated the analog CMTS network. Competition was intense, with Smart offering lower than the prevailing prices of mobile services. In 1997, Smart overtook Piltel as the market leader.

SMS started to become popular in 1998.

Demand for GSM mobile phones increased exponentially. The popularity of SMS was credited to Globe. The number of subscribers of Globe increased more than 300 percent from 1998 to 1999, 180 percent from 1999 to 2000 and 110 percent from 2000 to 2001.

The SMS phenomenon prompted Smart to convert its network from TACS to GSM in 1999.

Smart demanded SMS interconnection with Globe. Globe refused to interconnect its SMS with Smart. Smart filed an administrative for NTC to compel Globe to interconnect its SMS with Smart. NTC ruled to require Globe to interconnect its SMS with Smart. Globe elevated the issue before the CA. However, three months after the appeal was filed with the CA, Globe agreed to interconnect its SMS with Smart.

In late 1998, the majority shareholders of Smart took control of PLDT. In 1999, through share swap, PLDT became the owner of Smart.

Since Piltel and Smart belong to PLDT Group, the number of CMTS players was effectively reduced to four.

The analog CMTS subscribers began to transfer to GSM in 1999. The network of Extelcom remained analog despite its 5 MHz x 2 frequency assignment in the 1,800-MHz band due to insufficient capital to build the GSM network.

Extelcom began to suffer financially and was subsequently placed under court receivership and court rehabilitation.

Effectively, the number of CMTS players was reduced to three.

In 2001 the majority shares of Innove were transferred to Globe. Innove then became part of Globe Group. The number of CMTS players was down to two.

There were no major changes in pricing of CMTS services from 2001 to 2003. In late 2003 Sun Cellular launched its unlimited call and text services. This pricing strategy effectively lowered the prices of CMTS services and expanded the CMTS market. Price war started to shape. Globe and Smart tried to stop Sun Cellular from offering unlimited call and text services, but were not successful as NTC allowed Sun Cellular to continue offering unlimited call and text mobile services. Globe and Smart followed suit. Price war ensued. Customers benefited in the process.

Because there was no legal impediment, the commission allowed the acquisition by PLDT of the majority shares of Digital Telecommunications Philippines Inc. (Digitel) in October 2011.

In approving the transaction, the commission required PLDT to divest CURE. CURE is one of the four assignees of 3G frequencies. The divestment of CURE was aimed at reducing the control of PLDT Group on the 3G frequencies.

Effectively, the number of CMTS players was reduced to two, the Globe Group and the PLDT Group.

Fourth-Generation Mobile Telecommunications System (4G) The high demand for high-speed broadband network was due to the popularity of social media and the development of rich contents and applications. Some of the broadband market players installed Wimax networks operating within the 2,500-MHz to 2,700-MHz band to address the demand for high-speed broadband network.

PLDT Group and Globe Group have installed Long Term Evolution networks to address demand for high-speed mobile broadband access service. These networks are operating in the 3,500-MHz, 2,100-MHz, 1,800-MHz, 900MHz and 800-MHz bands. n Edgardo V. Cabarios is Deputy Commissioner of the National Telecommunications Commission

Globe seeks legislation of Open Access Law for telco industry and equitable sharing of 700 MHz

By Leony R. Garcia With the Philippines’s winning streaks in the business-process outsourcing (BPO) industry, the country should be prepared by providing the right infrastructures, continuous supply of quality people to work in the industry, and keeping up with the trends in processes.

US-based Datamark, in its Ask the Experts, Outsourcing News dated December 10, 2015, listed No. 1 the Philippines phenomenon among the Seven Business Process Outsourcing Trends to Watch in 2016.

It said: “A low cost of living and a young, educated and English-speaking work force continues to draw BPO to the Southeast Asian island country. The Philippines will continue to shake up the top 10 worldwide outsourcing destinations, now dominated mostly by Indian cities. In 2015 Manila grabbed the No. 2 ranking in the Tholons 100, pushing Mumbai down a rung. However, the government will have to address an infrastructure strained by rapid growth.”

Indeed, the Philippines’s IT-BPO industry has come a long way since it started in 1992 from a single contact center, the Accenture Global Resource Center, and the passing of the Special Economic Zone Act in 1995. The Act has established the Philippine Economic Zone Authority, and since then has provided lower area requirements for developments and tax incentives for foreign investors.

In fact, as early as 2010, the Philippines has been declared the world’s BPO capital, with the industry generating more revenue for the country and providing the most job opportunities in the private sector.

Therefore, the growth in the BPO sector is expected to be bullish for 2016.

According to consulting firm Deloitte Philippines, the industry is expected to hit its target of $25.5 billion and 1.4 million people employed by then. It added that the sector contributes to 6 percent of the GDP growth, and the Philippines should be prepared with these bright prospects by providing full government support even if it is set to open the local project for foreign companies to hasten the infrastructure improvements.

And along with infrastructure needs, the Philippines should be ready for the growing popularity of service delivery automation, which includes robotic-process automation (RPA) and knowledge-process outsourcing (KPO), which is a higher form of BPO service that needs expertise in certain fields, such as in accounting, legal, engineering or even in marketing.

Along with this, Globe Telecom is seeking legislation of the Open Access Law for the telco industry and the equitable sharing of 700 MHz. “In addition to enhancing and improving access to education, government services, entertainment and social media, a robust Internet infrastructure provides tremendous opportunities for business and greatly impacts economic growth. This is something the government can help by providing the right regulatory environment as we build an Internet infrastructure that would develop ICT capabilities of local industries for stronger economic growth and a wonderful Philippines,” Globe President and CEO Ernest Cu said.

According to Cu, the government can expedite legislation to mitigate bureaucratic red tape and other political hurdles that stand in the way in the deployment of telecommunication and broadband infrastructure, such as cell sites.

Specifically, an Open Access Law for the telco industry would expedite the issuance of all the relevant permits for all telecommunications facilities at the local government level.

Telecommunication companies are required to secure several permits, said Cu, adding that Globe has about 500 cell sites waiting to be built at any given time. “Prioritizing the Open Access Law for the telco industry would help fast-track fiber builds that will increase Internet access and speeds in the country,” Cu said.

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700-MHz frequency bridges the digital divide Cu is also advocating for the immediate harmonization and equitable distribution of the 700 MHz of frequency to sufficiently provide for rapidly increasing data traffic amid growing smartphone use in the country. He emphasized that the use of the 700 MHz will help improve Internet speed in the country.

The proposed harmonization is supported by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), which maintains that utilization of the frequency will help bridge the digital divide worldwide. The United Nations specialized agency for ICT formally moved to allocate the 700-MHz band to the global mobile industry during the World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-15) in November 2015.

“The WRC-15 decision represents a landmark in the development of broadband mobile on a worldwide scale, regardless of location, network or terminal used,” ITU Secretary-General Houlin Zhao said. The ITU decision will pave the way for manufacturers and mobile operators to offer mobile broadband at affordable prices in currently underserved areas.

Meanwhile, the valuable spectrum frequency (VSF) has been a contentious issue in the Philippines of late. San Miguel Corp. (SMC) currently holds 90 percent of the 700MHz spectrum across the country and has been largely underutilized by SMC’s small subscriber base. Both Globe and PLDT have strongly urged the National Telecommunication Commission (NTC) to distribute the spectrum evenly among industry players.

“The whole range of 700-MHz band simply cannot be given to only one entity,” Globe General Counsel Froilan Castelo said. He explained that giving active and operating telecommunications companies access to the 700-MHz spectrum will allow the industry to provide broadband and data services at faster speeds and in a more cost-efficient manner.

Castelo disclosed that as early as 2005, Globe already wrote to the NTC requesting for an allocation and assignment of frequencies within the 700-Mhz and 800-Mhz bands for its broadband wireless network, but NTC did not act favorably on its request.

PLDT Regulatory Affairs and Policy Head lawyer Ray Espinosa said that since 2008, Smart and its unit Smart Broadband Inc. had filed an application with the NTC to obtain a portion of 700-MHz frequency, but the regulator had failed to act on their application.

The ITU’s move on the 700-MHz spectrum is supported by the GSM Association (GSMA), which said that maximizing on the unused 700-MHz mobile frequency spectrum can potentially increase the impact of a country’s GDP by tenfold. The group’s Mobile Economy Asia study also found that the full use of the spectrum has the potential to create an additional 2.1 million jobs for the Asia-Pacific region by 2020. GSMA is a London-based association of nearly 800 operators and more than 250 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem.

The ITU reinforced GSMA’s findings by globally harmonizing the 700-MHz band and allocating it for LTE use in ITU Region 1, which covers Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. The decision was taken during the the WRC-15 conference, and follows similar action taken at WRC-07, which saw the 700-MHz spectrum adopted by ITU Regions 2 and 3, which cover the Americas and Asia Pacific.

PLDT and Globe are asking the NTC to reassign the 700MHz frequency to ensure a more equitable sharing of the spectrum among industry players. Reassignment of the frequency is also in line with the global practice of allocating the band to several telco players and not to a single entity only. n

FIRST TIME EVER

SURPRISING, SERIOUS AND SOMETIMES SILLY EVENTS AND TRENDS NOTED FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER IN 2015 Transgender people were in the spotlight in 2015, none more than Olympic champion Bruce Jenner, now known as Caitlyn Jenner, seen here in a tweet of her provocative Vanity Fair cover.

Mladen Antonov/ Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The Rev. Libby Lane (center) listened to Archbishop of York John Sentamu as she was ordained a bishop in the Church of England in January. Lynne Cameron/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

n Church of England’s First Female Bishop Although female monarchs have held the title of supreme governor of the Church of England since the days of Elizabeth I, it was only this year that the Rev. Libby Lane became the first female bishop of the Church of England. Her consecration in January as bishop of Stockport, in northwest England, came amid controversy between liberal and conservative factions of the church, which has 85 million followers around the world.

n Culture’s Transgender Moment Transgender people are in the mainstream consciousness more than ever.

They received the presidential treatment, with President Barack Obama calling for equal rights and respect for the LGBT community in his annual State of the Union address—using the word “transgender” in a presidential address for the first time ever. Caitlyn Jenner, formerly known as Bruce Jenner, the retired American athlete who won the men’s decathlon at the Summer Olympics in 1976, is documenting on reality TV her transformation from hapless dad to a glamazon trailblazer for trans rights. The American actress Laverne Cox, known for her role on the Netflix series Orange Is the New Black, is the first openly transgender person to have her own wax figure at Madame Tussaud’s. And Andreja Pejic is the first openly transgender model to be the face of a major makeup brand after landing a contract with Make Up For Ever.

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n Keep Your Selfie Stick to Yourself More and more museums are asking guests to refrain from carrying a selfie stick while inside their halls. Like New York City’s Metropolitan Museum of Art did in February, museums and other exhibition venues for the first time have been prohibiting the smartphone extenders, citing concerns that oblivious operators could damage precious artwork or pose a safety risk. Even Apple jumped on the ban-wagon and asked attendees at its Worldwide Developers Conference in June to leave their selfie sticks in their hotel rooms, and Disney decided to extend its ban to all areas of its parks after users broke an existing rule restricting them on rides.

They haven’t prohibited selfie sticks on the sidewalks of Paris, yet. But the Louvre has been considering banning the extendible rods.

Dominique Faget/ Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Britain passed legislation in February approving a controversial three-parent mitochondrial gene therapy that could prevent certain kinds of genetic diseases. Monica Almeida/The New York Times

n A Three-Person Embryo Despite opponents decrying the eventuality of “designer babies,” Britain became the first country to allow mitochondrial replacement therapy.

The British Parliament in February approved a procedure that would allow embryos to be created with DNA from three people—a mother, a father and a female donor with healthy mitochondrial DNA—to prevent rare incurable diseases that are passed down the maternal line. This would give women with a history of mitochondrial diseases a chance to have healthy biological offspring. Clinics in the UK can start applying for licenses in the late fall; a baby created using this in-vitro fertilization therapy could be born as early as next year.

Scientists captured the first-ever snapshot of light behaving as both a particle and a wave, published in the scientific journal Nature Communications. Fabrizio Carbone/EPRLU

n Dual Nature Scientists at École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne in Switzerland in March captured the first-ever image of light as both a particle and a wave. Light can act like a wave or a stream of particles, and while previous experiments have shown light to behave in either way, never before has a photograph captured this happening simultaneously. The experiment could help scientists unlock further discoveries in the field of quantum computing.

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first time ever

n Unexpected Beauty Queen In a move that delighted some, scandalized others but surprised most, a woman of mixed race—known as a haafu—was for the first time named Miss Japan. Ariana Miyamoto’s victory in March is a rarity in the ethnically homogenous country. Miyamoto, whose father is African-American and mother is Japanese, was born and raised primarily in Japan, where those of mixed race are few and far between, and those who are half black even rarer still. Critics questioned whether the beauty queen was “Japanese enough” to represent the country at the Miss Universe pageant, but Miyamoto shrugged them off, saying she wants to use her title to promote greater tolerance and acceptance for multiracial Japanese people.

Ariana Miyamoto was crowned Miss Universe Japan 2015 and is one of a handful of mixed-race Japanese people to win a major beauty pageant in Japan.

Ko Sasaki for The New York Times

A procession of holograms outside the parliament building in Madrid in April made for a ghostly protest of a law banning unauthorized demonstrations in Spain. AFP Photo/No Somos Delito

More and more Internet hot spots have been slowly popping up across Cuba.

Young Cubans congregated at the Havana studio of a renowned artist that provides free Wi-Fi. Eliana Aponte for The New York Times

n Connected in Cuba

n A Projected Protest

Cubans got their first taste of wireless Internet after well-known artist Alexis Leiva Machado, popularly known as “Kcho,” set up the island’s first public Wi-Fi spot in his Havana studio and cultural center in March. Most of the country’s citizens do not have regular access to the Internet, and those who have the luxury of owning a smartphone can’t use it to surf the Web. Cuba plans to offer its citizens a better telecommunications infrastructure, including the establishment of 35 Wi-Fi spots in parks, avenues and other public spaces throughout the nation. The service isn’t free; users must register with the state-owned telecom company and pay $2 an hour—a significant fee considering that the country’s median income is $20 per month.

A virtual march became a political reality when holograms— chants, banners and all—protested the so-called “gag law” in Madrid.

The world’s first holographic protest in front of the Spanish parliament building, in April, was in response to the Citizen Safety Law, which levies steep fines for unauthorized gatherings and prohibits photographing or filming police officers, among other things that critics say fly in the face of democratic principles. Organizers pointed out that their virtual selves have more rights under the new law. Despite widespread protests—virtual and real—the law went into effect in July.

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n A Midair Feat A test drone refueled in midflight for the first time, marking a significant achievement in autonomous unmanned flight. The X-47B aircraft, nicknamed “Salty Dog 502,” guzzled up more than 4,000 pounds of fuel delivered via a drogue from an air jet tanker off the coast of Maryland and Virginia in the eastern United States, in April.

Salty Dog 502 is one of two X-47B aircraft developed by Northrop Grumman for the U.S. Navy’s testing purposes. According to reports, however, its first midair refueling may be its last, as the Navy has refocused its development efforts on another class of unmanned air vehicles.

An unmanned Navy jet made aviation history by taking on fuel while in flight.

U.S. Navy via The New York Times

In anticipation of the next film in the Star Wars franchise, The Force Awakens, the entire catalog of movies in the series are now just a couple of taps away on your smartphone, mobile, tablet or TV. Lucasfilm via The New York Times

n Not So Far, Far Away

n To Boldly Brew

The Force is with you, just as quickly as you can download it. To the delight of dedicated fans, the Star Wars movies can now be accessed digitally—Jedi-like timing to whet audience appetite for the seventh episode in the franchise, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, due in theaters this December. And in June, fans both new and old were able to experience all six films of the blockbuster series, which for the first time was screened in China, at the Shanghai International Film Festival—almost 40 years after the first of the original trilogy was released.

Until then, the movies had only been available in China through pirated copies and illegal downloads.

The first Italian woman in space became the first barista on the International Space Station in May, brewing a cup of Italy’s finest in a 55-pound machine that was almost two years in the making. Samantha Cristoforetti, 38, an Italian air force pilot and engineer, took her first sip from a special cup that allowed her to drink in microgravity conditions almost as she would have back on terra firma. The ISSpresso machine, as it is called, can whip up other hot beverages, such as tea and consommé.

Italian astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti sipped espresso, which she called “the finest organic suspension ever devised,” aboard the International Space Station in May. NASA via The New York Times

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first time ever n A First Black Leader South Africa’s main opposition party elected its first black leader, Mmusi Maimane, 35, signaling a new direction for the Democratic Alliance, which has long struggled with the image that it represents only the interests of white South Africans.

With Maimane’s election in May, the party hopes to attract the support of more black voters in a bid to wrest power away from the African National Congress, which has dominated South African politics since apartheid was lifted in 1994.

Mmusi Maimane was elected in May as leader of South Africa’s Democratic Alliance, a party that has long been identified with white South Africans. Joao Silva/The New York Times

n Art’s $1-Billion Week Christie’s had a good week and then some, selling more than a $1 billion worth of art in just three days starting on May 11. Among the notable works on offer was Pablo Picasso’s Les Femmes d’Alger (Version ‘O’), which, at a hefty $179.4 million, became the most expensive piece of art sold at auction, and Mark Rothko’s No. 10, which commanded $81.9 million. According to art dealers, many of the world’s wealthiest are choosing to funnel their extra cash into big-name artwork as an investment and status symbol. n Victories for Same-Sex Marriage Ireland became the first country to approve same-sex marriage by referendum in a decided victory, with 62 percent in favor. The May vote changed the country’s constitution to allow the marriage of two people “without distinction as to their sex,” and same-sex marriages may be celebrated as early as October.

Homosexuality was considered a crime in the staunchly Roman Catholic country until 1993, but stances regarding the LGBT community have softened in recent years.

And momentum for gay rights continues to grow across the Atlantic, with the United States Supreme Court in June weighing in on the issue and deciding, in a 5-4 vote, that same-sex marriage is a right upheld by the Constitution, and therefore a national right.

The staggering $179.4-million sale of a Picasso painting helped smash an art world record at Christie’s auction house in May. Timothy A. Clary/ Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

A supporter of same-sex marriage celebrated with a joyous thank-you note of sorts after Ireland’s historic referendum approving gay marriage in May. Paul Faith/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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Switzerland’s Jolanda Neff (right) competed in the women’s cross-country mountain bike cycling event at the 2015 European Games in Azerbaijan.

n Let the European Games Begin Swiss mountain biking champion Jolanda Neff cycled her way to the top of the winner’s podium, becoming the first person to be awarded a gold medal at the inaugural European Games, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from June 12 to 28. Her fellow countryman Nino Schurter secured the top spot in the men’s mountain bike race. About 6,000 athletes from more than 50 countries competed at the European Games, which are governed by the European Olympic Committees and will occur every four years hereafter.

Kirill Kudryavtsev/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Jurassic World grossed more than $200 million in the United States and $100 million in China alone during its opening weekend in May. Universal Pictures

n Stomping Success Oversized dinosaur blockbuster Jurassic World grossed $511.8 million worldwide in its opening weekend in June, becoming the first movie to surpass the $500-million mark and topping the lists of biggest movie openings. The film, which is the fourth installment in the Jurassic Park series, is the latest in a string of lucrative sequels—like the Avengers and Fast and Furious franchises— that generate tremendous revenue, if not exactly critical praise.

n A Big Leap From India Though among the last picks, Satnam Singh Bhamara’s selection by the Dallas Mavericks basketball team in June catapulted the local curiosity to certified celebrity status in his tiny hometown village in Punjab, India—as well as made him the first Indian-born player to be drafted in the United States’ National Basketball Association.

At a towering 7 foot 2 inches, Satnam Singh, 19, is mere inches taller than his father, who wisely encouraged his son to play a game that is not as popular in India as cricket, soccer or field hockey.

Just two months earlier, 22-year-old Canadian Sim Bhullar became the first-ever baller of Indian descent to play in an NBA game.

Basketball player Satnam Singh Bhamara (center) received a hero’s welcome at his hometown in Punjab, India, in August.

Shammi Mehra/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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first time ever LOOKING AHEAD n World’s First Head Transplant An Italian neurosurgeon announced plans in June to perform the world’s first head transplant.

The surgery, which is slated for 2017, will require 100 medical workers and could cost up to $15 million. Surgeon Sergio Canavero expects to perform the transplant on Valery Spiridinov, a 30-year-old Russian man who has Werdnig-Hoffman disease, a muscle-wasting disorder. Experts have expressed skepticism, however, that Dr. Canavero would have enough time or even the technology at his disposal to establish successful animal trials that should precede an attempt on a human.

n Papal Recognition for Palestine After 15 years of negotiations, the Vatican on June 26 signed a treaty with “the state of Palestine,” angering Israeli officials who say doing so has threatened the peace process. The Vatican has been unofficially referring to Palestine as a state since the United Nations granted it nonmember observer status in 2012, but this is the first time that the Holy See has signed an agreement with the Palestinians. The accord addresses the church’s activities and interests in the areas of the Holy Land that Palestine controls.

Pope Francis met with Palestine leader Mahmoud Abbas at the Vatican in May, calling him an “angel of peace.” Alberto Pizzoli/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

A snapshot of Pluto’s surface that Nasa’s New Horizons spacecraft beamed back to Earth after almost a decade of travel. NASA via The New York Times

n Hello, Pluto Nine years since it was launched and after hurtling 3 billion miles in space, the New Horizons spacecraft gave the citizens of Earth their first detailed look in July at the lonely dwarf planet at the edge of the solar system, marking the first space mission to explore Pluto and its five known moons. The spacecraft—which carries onboard the ashes of the late Clyde Tombaugh, who discovered the celestial object in 1930— took pictures of Pluto and its largest moon, Charon, before speeding off into the Kuiper belt. Already the data that New Horizons is transmitting back to Earth is challenging what scientists thought they knew about Pluto and its environs.

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n Legal Tender’s Feminine Face-Lift Responding to calls for greater gender equality on American currency, the United States Treasury announced that the new $10 bill will feature a woman. Although the bill won’t be in circulation until 2020, the decision on the woman to be minted will come as soon as this fall. Popular input will be considered, officials say. Although this would be a first for the ten-spot, women have been featured on US currency before: Martha Washington’s likeness graced the back of $1 bills in the late 1800s. n A Virgin Trip for Madonna The Queen of Pop will perform in the Philippines for the first time, stopping by the archipelago in February of next year as part of her Rebel Heart tour. And true to the Material Girl’s motto, her tickets start at P3,150 for general admission and top out at P57,750 (roughly $1,250) for VIP treatment— which is more expensive than ticket prices at other stops on her tour. This hasn’t deterred ardent Filipino fans, however; demand for tickets was so high that another concert day was added. n A Presidential First in Taiwan Taiwan will probably elect its first female president next year. At one point, both major candidates in the contest were women. The ruling party, Kuomintang, in July had endorsed Deputy Legislative Speaker Hung Hsiu-chu as its presidential candidate, while the main opposition party, the Democratic Progressive Party, is led by Tsai Ing-wen. Fear of election losses led Kuomintang to replace Hung with Eric Chu in October, but Tsai and her party are still expected to sweep to power in elections next month. Among the top voter issues sure to spark debate is clarifying the island’s complex relationship with China. Tsai’s party has a history of supporting the status quo of acknowledging “one” China, yet maintaining Taiwanese sovereignty.

Tricia Tisak

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Randy Mora

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Artist’s Lens

W

hat did the year in 2015 mean to you? What are the fears, fancies and hopes for 2016 and beyond? These visual commentaries offer a world of ideas.

A GLOBAL GALLERY OF THE YEAR THAT WAS AND WHAT LIES AHEAD

n COLOMBIA

One of the aspects of daily life I see changing rapidly is the way we interact with each other. Every day I see less closeness between people. We are living our lives through screens: smartphones, tablets and computers. Immersed in their electronic devices, people in the street ignore their environment and other passers-by.

Communication is changing, and we are changing as a result. Basic activities like falling in love, landing a new job, scheduling a meeting or going to the movies will all be conditioned in some way by a virtual intermediary. Our gadgets are getting smarter while we’re getting dumber, lazier and more isolated.

The process for my digital collage differs from that of other illustrators because of my technique. I produce my compositions from clippings, photos and textures that I collect from old magazines and discarded objects. Then I scan everything and compose it on Photoshop.

The creative process is very intuitive, and chance often takes control: I might have a clear idea of the concept, but the composition builds itself with each new layer, sometimes leading to unexpected results. A simple idea, or the combination of two images, can be the trigger that defines a piece.

Miguel Bustos

“Love 2.0”

By Randy Mora

“Our gadgets are getting smarter while we’re getting dumber, lazier and more isolated.”

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Randy Mora is an illustrator and artist from Bogotá, Colombia.

His work has been featured in exhibits in South America, the United States, Europe and China.

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n SCOTLAND “Pollinator”

By Johanna Basford I’m a new mother, and since bringing a brand-new little person into the world, I cannot help but look forward with a sense of growing anxiety. What does the future hold for my daughter? What kind of world will she grow up in? How will the actions of my generation impact her life?

One of the many things that keeps me awake in the wee hours, when I’m not thinking about coloring books or organic baby food, is contemplating how our tiny planet is going to feed the growing masses. I think about genetically modified crops, land shortages and, of course, the plight of the pollinators.

My illustration is a warning of sorts, a snapshot of a future I feel we would be wise to avoid. Nature’s workforce is already dwindling, and I fear that by the time my daughter is in her teens, the humble bee may have been transformed into something else entirely.

In its place we may find swarms of robotic insects buzzing around genetically modified blooms, busily ensuring future harvests and continuing blossoms. Tiny winged drones might flit from one plant to the next in a programmed pursuit of pollen. While Frankenstein flowers and robo-bees seem the stuff of science fiction, they may turn out to be the fingerprints of a scary new world.

My illustration practice has always centered around a love of all things analogue. I draw by hand and attempt to capture nature’s beauty with a wobbly, hand-drawn line and a slightly imperfect circle. Closer inspection of this winged beastie reveals a man-made creation, not the delicate entomological study you might have anticipated.

“My illustration is a warning of sorts, a snapshot of a future I feel we would be wise to avoid.”

Sam Brill

Johanna Basford

Johanna Basford is a Scottish ink evangelist and illustrator who has created a collection of coloring books for adults. Her first book, Secret Garden, has sold more than 8 million copies in over 40 languages. Her third book, Lost Ocean, was published in 2015. She works and lives in Aberdeenshire, Scotland.

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n U.S.A. “Landscape with Houses (Duchess County, NY) #1”

By James Casebere My picture suggests the mythic “Morning in America” of the Ronald Reagan era in the United States, one characterized by the optimism of distorted growth, speculative real estate and inflated financial markets.

The bizarre bedroom communities of the exurbs don’t always seem planned—rather, they sometimes erupt spontaneously from the moist earth like mushrooms, some of them poisonous. What is this dream giving way to?

A hilltop assembly anxiously awaits the scorching summer. Aren’t suburbs, exurbs and cities all variants of refuge? The mood is one of a planetary burn and sting, the result of a human hustle on autopilot.

This town is asleep, but about to awaken to the buzz of a myriad of vehicles.

Busy little ants are about to pour out of every opening and scurry off to nowhere. They’re stranded on a mound above an otherwise drowned world. This is the existential tipping point of the global citizen and the collective straining of identities toward a new unknown.

Giorgia Fanelli

James Casebere

“This is the existential tipping point of the global citizen and the collective straining of identities toward a new unknown.”

James Casebere is an American visual artist living in New York who works from studio-constructed architectural models. His work has been collected by museums worldwide, including the Whitney Museum of American Art, the Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum and the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York, the Walker Art Center in Minneapolis and the Victoria and Albert and Tate Museums in London, among others. A career retrospective, James Casebere: Fugitive, curated by Okwui Enwezor, runs from February 12 - June 12, 2016, at Haus der Kunst in Munich.

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“There is no line between what’s real and what isn’t.” n QATAR “Current Obsession, 2015”

By Christto Sanz and Andrew Weir

Christto & Andrew

Fire Station

The title “Current Obsession” refers to Qatar’s rapid development. There is an obsession with the future in Doha, which is often ironically described as a reply to the “Western”-imposed idea of progress.

The woman in our piece is trapped in an artificial simulation of reality, yet at the same time, it’s a reality where her identity has been lost. It is a contradictory state, revealing that there is no line between what’s real and what isn’t. She projects a futuristic vision—one in which Qatar’s identity is wrapped up in the nation-building narrative of modernization and rapid growth.

She belongs to the migrant workforce that makes up almost the entirety of Qatar’s population; she is symbolic of the country’s malleable identity in the course of its economic, social and political development. It’s a system that challenges Western ideas of progress and time. The image represents how time has been distorted: how Qatar is a place that has evolved over very short periods, and where the past, present and future are all being constructed simultaneously.

Christto Sanz, born in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and Andrew Weir, born in Johannesburg, South Africa, are a collaborative duo of visual artists who live and work in Doha, Qatar. They produce photography, mixed-media objects and videos that explore social identities and history. Their art has been shown in the Middle East, the United States, Central America and Europe.

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n BRAZIL

This photo was taken in 2005 on Deception Island, at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. The feeling of isolation is intense there. This colony of chinstrap penguins could only be reached by scaling the slopes of a crater, which are covered by glacier, to a ridge over 1,000 feet high.

I was there on an expedition for the “Genesis” project, documenting the planet’s most pristine areas. There were tens of thousands of these penguins when I visited, but their numbers have since declined, and in 2015 researchers confirmed the reason: Chinstrap penguins eat krill almost exclusively, and the icy habitat where krill thrive has been disappearing due to climate change. Warming has been intense in that area of the Antarctic, with enormous icebergs—miles across—cracking off glaciers and melting.

When human activity is having an impact on even the most isolated places on earth, is there any hope that we can find a balance? My answer is yes. Part of the “Genesis” project involved documenting the lives of some of the world’s most remote peoples—the San people of the Kalahari Desert, the Nenets of Siberia. They are deeply aware of the surrounding ecosystems because they depend upon them; they foster biodiversity and tend to the land as part of their everyday lives. What has stayed with me is the sense of how far our society has moved from our hunter-gatherer roots. We have been through a great migration from agricultural societies to our modern one, and in the process lost a connection to the land that’s essential to our survival.

We can live much as we are living now, but if we’re going to avoid damaging the planet irreversibly, we need to remember our origins, which taught us that everything we do has an impact. We need to learn to nurture the land again by establishing new traditions and mores, a sense of guardianship in each community based on science and aboriginal wisdom.

There are so many changes we can make to urban life that would foster biodiversity. Everything can help, from providing networks of plants for hungry bees passing through cities to replacing tar rooftops with plantings of local grasses. If we change the small rituals of our everyday lives, all of us can do our part.

“When human activity is having an impact on even the most isolated places on earth, is there any hope that we can find a balance? My answer is yes.”

Sebastião Salgado/Amazonas/Contact Press Images

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Sebastião Salgado/Amazonas/Contact Press Images

“untitled”

By Sebastião Salgado

Sebastião Salgado, born in Aimorés, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, is an award-winning social documentary photographer whose works, which include Workers (1993), Migrations (2000) and Genesis (2013), have been presented in leading art museums and galleries around the world. He is a co-founder of Instituto Terra, an institution dedicated to reforestation, conservation and environmental education, which he and his wife, Lelia Deluiz Wanick Salgado, created after they successfully restored what had been a devastated stretch of Brazil’s Atlantic Forest.

World Outlook

R.O. Blechman

A Taste of the Year THE MASTER OF THE PASTRY PORTMANTEAU IMAGINES A “DESSERT” INSPIRED

BY THE YEAR 2015.

T

By Dominique Ansel

o celebrate 2015 going down in history as the year of marriage equality, a movement that spread around the world and across generations as a growing number of nations legalized same-sex marriage, I wanted to create a dessert that could also sweep across the globe and be equally unifying. And for every city that it passes through, it would bring with it a sense of wonder, purification and sweetness—even if only temporarily.

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caramel and icy beads of berry sorbet drift in the air. As they hit the sunlight, the colors project rainbows up against the sky. This is dessert as a force of nature.

The crowds stare for a moment in disbelief before breaking out into a joyous snowball fight that also happens to be the best kind of food fight. A snow day is declared and schools and offices close. Families gather to build snowmen sundaes on the streets and invert their umbrellas so they function as baskets for catching ice-cream snow. Inch by inch, it seems as if the whole world is being served up à la mode.

Come the next morning, the ice cream melts away just as snow would. Blue skies, a cool breeze, and 2016 approaching just beyond the horizon. n

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Daniel Krieger

My dessert starts off slowly: a flicker in the sky, then the steady falling of snowflakes. One of them lands on your lips and when you lick it off, you detect the faint taste of vanilla. In a matter of minutes a spectacular cloud hovers over the entire sky and before you know it, you’re in the middle of an ice-cream blizzard.

Our imaginations are always bigger than our realities, so when it came to creating a dessert to capture 2015—any dessert, real or imaginary—I decided to go with the latter and make an ice-cream blizzard. Why cook with pots and pans if we can use the clouds to churn out ice cream? And just as no two snowflakes are alike in shape and size, why shouldn’t they also be unique and individual in flavor?

Little frozen droplets of chocolate and

Dominique Ansel is a French pastry chef and owner of award-winning bakeries in New York City and Tokyo. He has worked at Fauchon in Paris and was the pastry chef at Daniel in New York for six years. In May of 2013, he invented the Cronut, a croissant-doughnut hybrid that has been imitated around the world. In 2014, he was given a James Beard Award for “Outstanding Pastry Chef” in the United States.

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