Business of Energy - December 2020

OF ENERGY

DECEMBER 2020

NEW YEAR

BRIGHTER OUTLOOK CANOE FINANCIAL’S RAFI TAHMAZIAN ON WHAT 2021 MAY HOLD FOR ALBERTA ENERGY

OF ENERGY VOL 2, ISSUE 4 | DECEMBER 2020

PUBLISHERS

Clean and Green Geothermal Energy Opportunity

by David Yager

Cover: New Year, Brighter Outlook

by Melanie Darbyshire

03 06 10

Profile: Millenia Engineering FEBRUARY 2019

by Renaay Craats

Pat Ottmann & Tim Ottmann

EDITOR

Melanie Darbyshire

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COVER PHOTO

Lynn Streeter Photography

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THIS ISSUE’S CONTRIBUTORS Melanie Darbyshire David Yager Renaay Craats

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Clean and Green Geothermal Energy Opportunity | David Yager

CLEAN AND GREEN GEOTHERMAL ENERGY OPPORTUNITY

by David Yager

G

ood news is hard to find amidst the modern media’s relentless focus on seemingly endless challenges Albertans are facing in 2020.

Which is why so many missed Bill 36, the new Geothermal Resources Development Act. This is the long-awaited legal foundation for Alberta’s fledgling but promising geothermal energy (GE) industry. While not the silver bullet to quickly revitalize the economy (which no government can miraculously create), it unlocks a remarkable opportunity to make Alberta’s energy mix significantly greener while putting the nuts, bolts and brains of the oilpatch back to work.

Bill 36 was the necessary next step to launch geothermal development including the processes for leasing exclusive development rights from the Crown. In the same way that the province owns the rights to all subsurface resources such as coal, oil and gas, drilling holes in the earth to extract heat to turn it into money requires appropriate and binding permitting.

Saskatchewan and B.C. already have this framework in place.

GE is subterranean heat from the earth’s core which can be tapped and employed for structural heating (homes, buildings, warehouses, greenhouses) and electricity

generation. It is renewable energy like wind, solar and hydro. It is plentiful and the primary source is free. The advantage GE has over wind and solar is it is an ideal baseload energy source because it delivers 24/7/365. It is unaffected by the sun, wind, season or weather.

Most important for Alberta is that the people, equipment and processes used to exploit GE are the same as for oil and gas. No retraining is required. It is just a matter of switching the subsurface target and drill and equip the wells to extract a different form of energy.

After years of probing subsurface Alberta, the public geological data and knowledge base is extraordinary. The temperature at the bottom of every wellbore is known. When it comes to dealing with steam, hot water and heated reservoirs, thanks to the oil sands Canada is already a technical leader in thermal resource extraction.

GE is a win/win good news story for all Canadians. But for most of this century, concerns about climate change have created the mantra that the best oil business is no oil business. It is regrettable that the people and equipment will serve no useful purpose following the essential transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. But this is a small price to pay to save the world.

3 • Business of Energy • December 2020

David Yager | Clean and Green Geothermal Energy Opportunity

But if the world really wants and needs clean and reliable low-carbon energy, some better than interruptible wind and solar power is essential. Energy that doesn’t require scouring the earth searching for rare minerals to make batteries and magnets for wind-driven generators. An unlimited energy source that Canada can develop domestically, become world leaders, and export its application all over the world. Energy that uses the same the people and equipment as oil and gas without retraining or massive disruption.

We’ve got it! Let’s get on with changing the channel.

The serial entrepreneurs of Canada’s oilpatch follow the news and know the direction society wishes to go. There are multiple GE projects underway in Alberta and Saskatchewan. What Alberta needed was enabling legislation, which is what Bill 36 delivers. Here’s how GE works.

When most think of geothermal they probably envision the famous U.S. geyser Old Faithful or harnessing the steam that leaks to the surface in Iceland.

But in recent years, technological advancements in GE have allowed developers to extract heat and generate electricity from what is really only hot water. A valuable aspect of all the holes drilled in Alberta is the subsurface temperature of every well is known.

Razor Energy Corp., a Calgary independent producer, operates part of the legacy Swan Hills oilfield. After nearly 60 years on production, volumes are high but each barrel is comprised of about three per cent oil and 97 per cent water.

Really hot water. Over 100oC. Understanding the GE potential, Razor moved to electricity generation. Razor was already using produced gas to generate electricity. To create thermal power, they use the hot exhaust gas to make the water hot yet. Employing a 6MW ORC (Organic Rankine Cycle heat conversion) turbine, Razor figures they will soon be able to generate 21kMW of total power from their oilfield of which nearly 30 per cent, the GE portion, is 100 per cent green and renewable.

And they can sell this power back into northern Alberta’s electricity grid because the asset is already connected. Because most hydrocarbon production requires electricity, a major attraction of harnessing GE from or near existing oil and gas producing sites is they are either connected to the grid or are close to it. This further reduces the final cost of geothermal power.

From its headquarters in Saskatoon, DEEP Earth Energy Production Corp. has been exploring GE opportunities in that province. It examined the geology and settled on a location along the Saskatchewan/U.S. border, what the company believes is the hottest spot in the province. To explore for heat they drilled the deepest will in the province in 2018 to a depth of 3,530 metres.

The found “brine transmissivity” or moving hot water. Encouraged, DEEP drilled four wells this year. The downhole temperatures are in the range of 120oC to 130oC, a satisfactory level for lower temperature hot water GE in other parts of the world.

DEEP’s vision is to become a producer of sustainable, base-load renewable energy for a variety of applications. Besides electricity generation, the hot water and waste heat can also be used for greenhouses and aquaculture.

While the business model is targeting water hot enough for economical electricity generation, the secondary target is water warm enough for reliable, year-round heating for structures such as buildings or greenhouses.

The completely “outside the box” approach to GE development is Eavor Technologies Inc. of Calgary and its “Eavor-Loop” system. Eavor’s approach is to locate hot but impervious rocks then use them to circulate cold water from surface and return it to surface containing enough heat to warm structures or generate electricity.

Exploiting the continuous advancements in horizontal and multilateral drilling, Eavor envisioned two wells from surface feeding and draining 10 to 12 toe-to-toe multilateral boreholes through the formation. This massive reverse radiator greatly increases the surface area of the water/wellbore/rock interface.

4 • Business of Energy • December 2020

Interruptible renewable electricity from wind and solar is not practical for exports.

Eavor undertook a demonstration project near Rocky Mountain House last year. A suitable formation was identified at 2,500 metres that had a temperature of about 70oC. What was critical at this stage was that Eavor prove it could drill the series of connected “heat exchange” horizontal boreholes and that the Eavor-Loop would indeed deliver warm water to surface on its own. The pilot project cost about $13 million. It worked and began turning cold water into hot water earlier this year.

Besides Bill 36, Alberta has made significant funds available for research and exploitation of emissions reduction initiatives through the TIER program and Emissions Reductions Alberta.

Funds from the large emitter carbon tax are helping fund various forms of emission reduction and low-carbon energy. GE qualifies because whether it is used for structural heating or electricity, it is replacing either coal or natural gas.

And the greatest collateral benefit is that GE employs underutilized oil and gas labor, expertise, equipment and technology, direct spinoffs unavailable from wind or solar power.

There has been a lot of advice offered about how Alberta should embrace renewables, but much of this comes from people who don’t understand that exports are what has made the province’s energy industry so large. High-density energy resources like oil and gas can be practically shipped long distances, like gas to the east coast of the US or oil to Gulf of Mexico.

Petroleum and now LNG is shipped all over the world.

Interruptible renewable electricity from wind and solar is not practical for exports. Further, all of North America already has electricity. These sources are not even practical for supplying electricity locally on a continuous basis. Batteries for large scale deployment of interruptible renewables don’t exist yet. The business opportunity is limited because the technology is imported. Landlocked Alberta is unlikely to become the world’s next big supplier of wind turbine blades or solar panels.

GE is different. Not only is it more practical for base load heat and electricity, the equipment and processes to exploit it commercially can be developed in Alberta and exported globally.

While lots of places in the world have hot rocks, they don’t have drilling rigs, horizontal wellbore expertise, pumps, oil tools and significant experience handling high volumes of high temperature fluids.

If governments and consumers provided GE with the same support that wind and solar has received through higher fixed electricity prices, GE could achieve a similar outcome with private capital. Structural heating might also require financial support to get started. Both would deliver a more stable clean energy source better suited to the Canadian climate and latitude. Using local workers, equipment, and knowledge, not imported solar panels or turbine blades.

And create a new clean technology export opportunity where Canada can lead, not follow.

B O E

David Yager is an oil service executive, oil and gas writer, energy policy analyst and author of From Miracle to Menace – Alberta, A Carbon Story.

5 • Business of Energy • December 2020

Clean and Green Geothermal Energy Opportunity

“

Clean and Green Geothermal Energy Opportunity | David Yager

Cover | New Year, Brighter Outlook

Rafi G. Tahmazian.

Photo by Lynn Streeter Photography.

6 • Business of Energy • December 2020

New Year, Brighter Outlook | Cover

BRIGHTER OUTLOOK CANOE FINANCIAL’S RAFI TAHMAZIAN ON WHAT 2021 MAY HOLD FOR ALBERTA ENERGY

by Melanie Darbyshire

A

s 2021 gets underway, any positive news is welcome news. On the heels of a year that no one will soon forget, the general desire is for a calmer, more predictable and opportune time, one that will see more folks than not get ahead. For Albertans, our collective prosperity – and its propensity to rise – is inextricably linked to the energy industry. If it does well in 2021, we all benefit.

So what’s in store for Alberta’s energy industry this year? Where is it headed and what will it look like on the other side of 12 months?

“The dynamic is changing in the Alberta basin,” declares Rafi G. Tahmazian, senior portfolio manager and director at Canoe Financial. Tahmazian has been in the sector since the 1980s, starting in the oil patch, then in investment banking on the sell side and now on the buy side. “We’ve gone from an ‘exploration basin’ in the 1980s and ’90s, to what we called an ‘exploitation basin’ in the late 1990s and 2000s, into what I now refer to as a ‘manufacturing industry.’ There’s less science required, less entrepreneurship. It’s all about driving costs down to produce the cheapest product.”

Being a true manufacturing industry, Tahmazian explains, will lead to consolidation. In all four areas of Alberta oil and gas production – heavy oil, light oil, liquids and gas – the big players will get bigger as they consolidate. Case in point: the merger in October between Cenovus and Husky, whereby Cenovus transitioned from a leveraged pure heavy oil play to a large integrated longer-term outlook business.

“The big players all realize they don’t want to spend multiples of their cash flow to grow reserves and production base at this point,” he says. “They just want to become bigger, smarter, which means they can get things for cheaper. I can see there being 15 to 18 significant entities in Canada that are 100,000 to 500,000 barrels per day producers that represent the vast majority of what is happening in the province in terms of production. And they will control the best of the best assets.”

This consolidation could be quite significant. “It will lead to more hardship on the employment side,” Tahmazian notes. “Unchanged though is the fact that governments will reap the rewards on the revenue side through royalties and taxes. So the energy sector will once again do more than its fair share to contribute to multiple provincial and federal coffers. How will the feds show up to help alleviate our employment stress?”

77 •• Business Business of of Energy Energy •• December December 2020 2020

New Year Brighter Outlook

NEW YEAR

Cover | New Year, Brighter Outlook

When it comes to the price of oil, Tahmazian believes a reasonable outlook by the middle of next year is $55 per barrel for the following 12 months. While global demand dropped from around 101 million barrels per day pre-COVID to 75 million barrels per day in mid-March, it has rebounded nicely to 92 million barrels per day in November and is projected to continue to rise.

With OPEC back in control of the price (the COVID-induced drop in demand and price of oil took out many high-cost US shale producers this year, causing U.S. production to drop from 13 million to 10 million barrels per day and shifting the global power balance back to OPEC), he believes they will slowly ratchet up the price.

“OPEC has seven million barrels of excess capacity offline, and they will bring that on as demand continues to come back,” he predicts.

“More concerning about the collapse in the price of oil is the destruction of the global capital spending structure,” Tahmazian cautions. “We already saw the super majors back in 2015/16 completely reverse their spending, and on global FID projects. Now we saw this huge machine in the U.S. drop from 700 rigs per day down to sub-200 rigs per day. You see massive projects canceled. Nobody wants to direct capital towards this sector anymore. All this anxiety and negativity towards it. And this battle against the producer. This is killing supply.”

It’s a real problem, he continues, because while demand is recovering back quite nicely, supply is collapsing. The supermajors, responsible for the ‘stable’ base global production, are really far behind right now on the maintenance costs to keep these fields from declining. “You need massive capital punched in in there or you’re in trouble,” Tahmazian warns. “We actually see a significant energy crisis developing as a result of this.”

In Alberta, oil sands and liquids (condensate) producers stand the most to gain. “As the price of oil rises, oilsands producers’ demand for condensate also rises, which means we are going to get even more valuable pricing for the Montney and Duvernay producer. We anticipate

consolidation in that area, where there’ll be three or four significantly large producers that control the vast majority of that area.”

With a $55/barrel outlook, Alberta producers look good to investors. Based on their average historic valuation, average return from here is 300 per cent. “Since COVID and the collapse of the market, several companies have sharpened their pencils and tightened this and that, reducing their net back costs by up to $10,” Tahmazian notes. “We own companies that have a higher net back today at $40 than they did at $55. The differential has narrowed and costs have come in.”

“

Pipeline issues are also starting to be rectified, he adds, through Enbridge’s Line 3 and Line 5, TMX and Keystone: “Add them all up and in 24 months from now we have another million barrels of throughput.”

Pipeline issues are also starting to be rectified, he adds, through Enbridge’s Line 3 and Line 5, TMX and Keystone: “Add them all up and in 24 months from now we have another million barrels of throughput.”

8 • Business of Energy • December 2020

Even if the storage problem is solved, which Tahmazian acknowledges is likely at least 10 years away, wind and solar would still only cover just under four per cent of global energy: “That’s a huge move for that area but it’s still completely insignificant.”

And the demand for oil, he argues, is not abating soon. “The vast majority of global demand for oil growth, which up until COVID was an average of 1.3 million barrels per day of added demand every year, is coming from the developing world. For those people it means survival. There is no replacement for oil right now.”

Alternative energy, which comprises eight per cent of global energy (1.8 per cent of which are wind and solar, the remaining being biomass, hydro and nuclear) is completely inadequate to meet growing global demand. “The power of alternative energy lies in our ability to fix the transportation issue and the storage issue,” he explains. “We are really short on the transportation side. Bulk storage will actually crack the nut and move the dial over time. So we want to invest in energy storage. We think that’s the technology that has the biggest impact on growing alternatives.”

Even if the storage problem is solved, which Tahmazian acknowledges is likely at least 10 years away, wind and solar would still only cover just under four per cent of global energy: “That’s a huge move for that area but it’s still completely insignificant.”

From an investment standpoint, Tahmazian says his firm is buying the buyers. Given consolidation in the market and fewer entities representing different core plays in the basin, the aim is to own the best in class names. “You want to own the ones that are the best stewards of capital,” he advises. “That have the cleanest balance sheets. Doing cash transactions, buying assets cheap without diluting the value.”

Tourmaline Oil Corp., Canadian Natural Resources and Trican Well Service are all good bets he opines. Consolidation, he adds, will mean that assets will be purchased by cash rich companies in advantageous positions with good management teams. For example, he expects Cenovus to do a massive disposition process as a result of its merger.

A federal government supportive of the industry would make a huge difference. “From the day this government was elected, they were adamantly opposed to the sector, would not support it one bit and would do what they could to materially submarine it in a way that least affected the economy,” he laments. “What we need to do is put all our effort into affecting change and getting a government that instead recognizes that Canadian energy should be applauded.”

“We should all be proud of Canadian energy because of our human rights record, our environmental, social and governance record,” he concludes. “We need to start making consuming countries accountable for the oil they use. Not all oil is created equal, and I B would love for our oil to be challenged against all other oil in the world.” OE

9 • Business of Energy • December 2020

New Year Brighter Outlook

“

New Year, Brighter Outlook | Cover

Sitting: Travis Wolfe, P.Eng., General Manager/Partner and Greg Sunley, P.Eng., Process Eng. Manager/Partner.

Standing: Robert Gasper, P.Eng., Sr. Project Manager/Partner and John Homer, P.Eng., Sr. Project Manager/Partner. Photo by Riverwood Photography Inc.

MILLENIA ENGINEERING

25 YEARS STRONG

BY RENNAY CRAATS

W

hen Millenia Engineering started in 1995, the founders created the core values that would establish the company in the industry. By stressing integrity, flexibility, honesty, and excellence through innovation, they positioned Millenia for success.

Now, 25 years later, those same core values are what have made Millenia Engineering a preferred EPCM company in western Canada and beyond.

Millenia provides professional and innovative facility engineering in the oil and gas and petrochemical industries in western Canada and the United States.

10

With its stable of talented engineers and designers, the firm has all disciplines covered, with a key area being process engineering. The depth of experience and expertise in this area really sets Millenia apart from other engineering companies; none can compare to the talent and knowledge of Millenia’s process engineering department. Combine this with solutions-driven execution teams and whatever the project, clients can expect superior service and results from Millenia.

“We provide fit-for-purpose solutions. We don’t try to design something that a client doesn’t need. We give

Happy 25TH Anniversary Millenia Engineering!!

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MILLENIA ENGINEERING • 25 YEARS • 2

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Congratulations on 25 Years.

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Happy 25th Anniversary Millenia Engineering!

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Millenia’s clients are interested in environmental initiatives as well, and together they are exploring various options that lean green. Some clients are looking to reduce CO2 emissions while others are seeking ways of using waste streams to generate power. Millenia and its clients are exploring the hydrogen market as an area that is gaining momentum in the industry.

“There is a global movement towards using hydrogen as a fuel source. It’s becoming popular because of its compatibility with greener energy and growing demand for energy storage,” says Greg Sunley, process engineering manager and partner for Millenia.

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10 OCTOBER 11 NOVEMBER 12 DECEMBER With over 35 years of service excellence, NCSG provides 10 OCTOBERsolutions 11 NOVEMBER 12 DECEMBER turnkey to customers in a variety of industries.

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The firm provides a turn-key service to clients, offering conceptual studies and initial consultation through to detailed engineering and start-up. The range of services on the menu is wide: feasibility studies to stress analysis, production optimization to facility debottlenecking, 3D scanning to safety and operator training and manuals. Millenia has experience in a wide range of projects including enhanced oil recovery, acid gas injection schemes, heavy oil processes, carbon dioxide injection, sulphur plants, power/co-generation, NGL recovery, compression, pipelines, refineries as well as petrochemical (Ammonia/Urea/UAN). No matter the type or scope of the project, Millenia is committed to exceeding expectations in all areas, especially environmental stewardship and sustainable development practices.

Millenia is proud to be cutting edge and stays on top of technologies and trends in the industry. With the current climate, companies have to be more creative to find work and Millenia has diversified its offerings and expanded into the United States to achieve this goal.

The Millenia U.S. division focuses on petrochemicals in the Midwest and oil and gas refinery opportunities in Wyoming. Much of Millenia’s project work in Canada is being done in the Montney gas fields with greenfield

Building a Quality Product Safely and Efficiently

CONGRATULATIONS Millenia Engineering on 25 Years of Business Excellence!

P.O Box 579 Rocky Mountain House, Alberta Reception: 1 (403) 729.3335 Toll Free: 1 (800) 333-6850 www.bunch.ca

and brownfield projects in Grande Prairie and northeast British Columbia as well as projects in Saskatchewan.

With a strong team of field-orientated designers, its reputation and strong relationships with its clients has led to Millenia also providing operations support on the plant floor level for facilities.

Client satisfaction and retention is key for the management team, and with many clients staying with Millenia for decades, it seems that they are hitting the mark. Clients know what they will get working with Millenia—a highly skilled team of creative thinkers who pride themselves on providing innovative solutions on time and on budget. As many Millenia employees have been with the company for many years as well, there exists stability and familiarity with what each client needs that allows projects to run smoothly with predictable results.

“We (Millenia partners) situate ourselves on the front lines staying intimately involved in projects and guiding their progression, with accountability firmly in our hands,” says John Homer, partner at Millenia.

The importance of the vendors in a successful project cannot be understated. Millenia values and is proud of its business relationships with manufacturers and vendors, which are vital to project outcomes.

These relationships have allowed tight deadlines or unrealistic hurdles to be navigated to allow certain successes to be realized.

MILLENIA ENGINEERING • 25 YEARS • 4

The team knows its clients well and communicates with them effectively throughout the life cycle of a project.

They work together to identify the specifics of a project in order to tailor a plan that best meets the client’s needs. Millenia goes above and beyond to give clients the best possible experience by providing unbeatable service and accountability while employing the latest technology to facilitate superior results. “Over the past many years we have been utilizing technology to provide project value to clients.

Specifically, use of 3D scanning technology allows our

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designers to interlace a design 3D model into reality thus showing clients and construction participants the exact vision of the full design,” says Travis Wolfe, general manager and partner of Millenia Engineering.

The team has relied on technology more this year as COVID-19 shut offices and sent employees home to work remotely. Millenia was able to adjust and adapt quickly both within projects and in the day-to-day operations of the company. In response to the COVID-19 lockdown, management quickly altered procedures to convert the review and approval system for documents and drawings into a virtual one. This allowed all team members to interact in real time to increase productivity and facilitate collaboration, and in the end they didn’t miss a deadline during the transition.

This challenging time has spurred innovation and, while being apart can be difficult for a design team, the resulting productivity demonstrated the strength of the team and why Millenia has been so successful for a quarter of a century.

Whether it is operating in a time of boom, bust or global pandemic, Millenia remains adaptable and accommodating so it can provide quality results. This nimbleness further ensures client satisfaction in any situation.

“We have large company depth with small company flexibility,” says Wolfe.

Millenia has also brought a great deal of large-company skill and experience to the table for clients. The four partners boast years of combined field and home office experience in facility design, project management and construction management, and they are happy to share their knowledge with the motivated group of young engineers coming up behind them. There is no shortage of hands in the air when the management team asks for volunteers to take on a remote application, train a group or find new software that will make the output even better.

“I think we are the best version of Millenia that I’ve seen in a long time because there are a lot of young engineers who want to collaborate and take ownership, making the company grow, and maintain our integrity. Our culture has given way to a cohesive team that is enjoying the journey together,” says Wolfe.

With its recent head office relocation, still in the Calgary beltline, the company continues to grow its team and its scope as the partners look ahead at the potential in the next 25 years. The team is grateful for its past and current customers whose trust and partnership have helped establish Millenia Engineering as a go-to firm in western Canada, and the partners are eager to carry on these relationships for decades to come.

Tower 1 Suite 410, 110-12th Ave SW Calgary, AB T2R 0G7 Phone: 403-571-0510 | www.milleniaeng.com

Congratulations Millenia Engineering on 25 years in the making.

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MILLENIA ENGINEERING • 25 YEARS • 6

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