Business of Energy - November 2021

OF ENERGY

NOVEMBER 2021

UNSETTLED

STEVEN E. KOONIN, FORMER UNDER SECRETARY FOR SCIENCE UNDER PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA, DISCUSSES HIS NEW BOOK ON CLIMATE CHANGE

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OF ENERGY VOL 3, ISSUE 4 | NOVEMBER 2021

PUBLISHERS

Energy Crossroads Requires Hard Truths, Canadian Pragmatism

by Cody Battershill

Unsettled

Melanie Darbyshire

04 05 09 13

Profile: FEBRUARY IronCreek 2019

by Rennay Craats

Oil and Gas Will Power Alberta’s Robust Recovery in 2022

by David Yager

Pat Ottmann & Tim Ottmann

EDITOR

Melanie Darbyshire

COPY EDITOR Nikki Mullett

ART DIRECTOR

Jessi Evetts jessi@businessincalgary.com

ADMINISTRATION/ ACCOUNTING Natasha Walz natasha@businessincalgary.com

THIS ISSUE’S CONTRIBUTORS Melanie Darbyshire David Yager Cody Battershill Rennay Craats

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COVER 3 • Business of Energy • November 2021

Cody Battershill | Energy Crossroads Requires Hard Truths, Canadian Pragmatism

ENERGY CROSSROADS REQUIRES HARD TRUTHS, CANADIAN PRAGMATISM

by Cody Battershill

W

ith recent Canadian oil and gas prices at a multi-year high, electrical blackouts in China, production line shutdowns due to lack of power in Germany and drivers frustrated at gas stations across Britain because of fuel shortages, is there any doubt we’re at an energy crossroads?

Are there positive developments in our country?

Yes. Enbridge’s Line 3 that connects Alberta with Wisconsin is in service and is expected to transport 760,000 barrels per day at full capacity around the end of this month once upgrades are complete.

Demand for coal and natural gas today has already surpassed pre-COVID peaks, and reports say oil isn’t far behind.

Indigenous-led infrastructure projects are moving forward in the oil and gas sector as an important means of engaging Indigenous communities in their own economic futures.

Goldman Sachs Group recently reported it foresees an additional 560,000 barrels per day of crude oil demand coming later in the year from high natural gas prices force my a fuel switch-over to oil to power electrical production.

And Canadian companies that operate approximately 90 per cent of Canada’s oil sands production have committed to achieve net zero GHG emissions from oil sands operations by 2050.

There’s a lesson for Canada in these recent developments. We need to be more pragmatic.

Without doubt, Canada faces an opportunity. If nothing else, the European and Chinese energy shortages clearly illustrate the fact the world still needs fossil fuels to meet most of society’s energy needs.

Don’t get me wrong. There’s a crucial need in Canada to continue to push for renewables and clean energy technologies, as they’re vital to ensuring Canadians have the power we need to live productive lives.

But the energy crisis now acutely felt in China, India, parts of Europe and the UK is, from my perspective, a strong indicator we have to be realistic about how we’ll meet this growing demand.

Will some growth be met by renewables? Yes, certainly. But let’s keep our eye on metrics, not just for Canadian petroleum products but for others as well. More wind turbines and solar panels mean more mining, more energy in the extraction and manufacture of materials and in decommissioning at the end of the life of the wind or solar farm.

I’m of the strong opinion that greater transparency in Canadian energy matters means Canada should be the preferred supplier to an energy-intensive planet.

Meanwhile Canada has imported $480 billion in foreign oil over the last three decades.

Additional East – West transmission capacity could help solve that.

Oil and gas demand is growing in the midst of a worsening energy crisis. Opposition to oil and gas runs against the principles of sustainability as it hurts people, communities and the environment.

It’s time for some pragmatism.

B O E

Cody Battershill is a Calgary realtor and founder / spokesperson for CanadaAction. ca, a volunteer-initiated group that supports Canadian energy development and the environmental, social and economic benefits that come with it.

4 • Business of Energy • November 2021

Unsettled | Cover

UNSETTLED

STEVEN E. KOONIN, FORMER UNDER SECRETARY FOR SCIENCE UNDER PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA, DISCUSSES HIS NEW BOOK ON CLIMATE CHANGE

by Melanie Darbyshire

W

hen it comes to climate change, the general consensus in Canada among the mainstream media, politicians (of all stripes), a large portion of the scientific and business communities, and the general populace is that the science is settled. That rising human-caused carbon dioxide emissions are driving the changes in the world’s climate.

That the observable symptoms of a warming planet – rising sea levels, melting ice caps, more frequent and severe natural disasters, extinction of species – have the potential to destabilize whole human populations, resulting in myriad socioeconomic and geopolitical catastrophes. That the time for debate is long over, the time for bold action to reduce carbon emissions is at hand.

It’s a highly relevant issue for Calgary, where the economy relies on a healthy oil and gas sector.

For years the industry has been the target of environmental, governmental and public scorn, framed as a villainous emissions culprit.

Many global initiatives have focused on the issue: from the Kyoto Protocol (1997), to the Paris Climate Accords (2015), to the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, occurring this month. Countless reports have been authored, including the recent Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1, released on August 9, 2021.

Described as a ‘code red’ for humanity by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the latest report is said to show that the evidence is irrefutable: that greenhouse-gas emissions from fossil-fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk.

So to declare the contrary – that the science of climate change is in fact unsettled – is no small act. But that is exactly what Steven E. Koonin has

Steven E. Koonin

done in his book by the same name: Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters, published earlier this year.

It’s not the first time he has made such pronouncements. The theoretical physicist and professor at New York University, with appointments at the Stern School of Business, the Tandon School of Engineering and the department of physics, who also served as Under Secretary for Science in the U.S. Department of Energy under President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2011, previously published

5 • Business of Energy • November 2021

Cover | Unsettled

“There is no climate crisis,” he says quite matter-of-factly. “At least not according to the official science. And precipitate disruptive climate action is a foremost and much greater threat than any climate change.” a 2014 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal entitled Climate Science Is Not Settled.

He recently spoke at an online event, sponsored by the National Post, about his latest book.

“There is no climate crisis,” he says quite matterof-factly. “At least not according to the official science. And precipitate disruptive climate action is a foremost and much greater threat than any climate change.”

He notes with concern a widening gap between what non-experts (i.e. the average person) believe and what the actual science says: “To paraphrase a line from the classic movie The Princess Bride, ‘I do not think the science says what most of you think it says’.”

His book was written with the goal of bypassing the game of telephone (which begins with peer reviewed research papers, to reports issued by the UN and national governments, to summaries for policy makers, and finally to the media and politicians) which provides ample opportunities and incentives to distort the scientific certainties and uncertainties.

“I wanted to give non-experts a look at what the official science says and how it has gotten distorted,” he says. “Virtually everything I cite in the book is from government reports and subsequent peer reviewed research literature. All the primary data.”

Koonin asserts that the reports don’t at all contain the apocalyptic projections or grounds for prompt and sweeping action to reduce emissions. “For example, the reports say directly, even if somewhat obscure, that there will be minimal net economic impact,” he notes. “Even if the globe warms by four degrees, which is twice

the limit that people are discussing in connection with the Paris accord. And the economically optimal cost to reduce emissions is far shallower than what governments are proposing.”

“The changing climate is certainly something we should be cognizant of,” he acknowledges, “but not alarmed about. A realistic portrayal shows that we’ve many other far more serious problems to be concerned with.”

6 • Business of Energy • November 2021

Unsettled | Cover

He points out that the globe has been warming since the 17th century, coming out of the little ice age. The important question is how much of the current warming that has occurred over the last century – about 1.1 degrees – is due to human influences. “The IPC would say all of it, but they ignore the fact that the warming between 1910 and 1940 was about as rapid as what we saw between 1980 and 2000,” Koonin says. “And human influences were much more in that later period. It’s pretty clear natural variability has got to play a significant role.”

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5702 - 63 AVENUE LLOYDMINSTER, AB

104,502 SF INDUSTRIAL SPACE

FOR SALE/LEASE

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Property Features

Property is improved with two industrial buildings totaling 104,502 SF.

ey

space & 57,575 SF shop space.

The second tenant occupies remainder of the main building andSF. a separate Property is improved with twothe industrial buildings totaling 104,502 4,000 SF building totaling 31,927 SF with lease ending April 2026. ey Fully spacesprinklered & 57,575 SF shop space.

Property is situated on two titles providing the opportunity for expansion.

Comfortably, room for a 40,000 building of onthe second The second tenant occupies theSF remainder main title. building and a separate 4,000 SFofbuilding totaling 31,927 SF with lease ending April 2026.

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“The IPCC projects that under a reasonable scenario for future emissions we’ll see about another 1.7 degrees of warming through the end of the century,” he continues, “given that the world warmed by a degree in the 20th century.

And at the same time we saw the greatest advance in human wellbeing ever in the world.

It’s kind of hard to believe that another 1.7 degrees is going to be catastrophic. And in fact, the IPCC and other reports say, as I mentioned, it will not at all be catastrophic.”

Koonin highlights actual impacts, including agricultural yields which have blossomed over the last 60 years, to provide every reason to expect that they will continue to do so. “Sea level rise, which his another boogeyman often invoked, is at the grand pace of one foot a century,” he adds. “It is accelerating, but it’s accelerated before – 80 years ago – about the same amount. When again, human influences were much smaller.”

Other underreported parts of the report relate to natural disasters. “There is low confidence in most reported, long-term (multi-decadal to centennial) tropical cycles – hurricanes,” Koonin says. “We have not observed any human influences on hurricanes over more than a century.” He notes that the report does say that one measure of hurricane strength seems to have increased over the last 40 years, but that another recently published paper refutes this contention.

The media and politicians, he continues, are complicit in exaggerating and distorting the evidence in the report: “They tend to focus on

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• Property is improved with two industrial buildings totaling 104,502 SF. Property • 15,000 SF ofFeatures well finished two storey office space.

• Can be subdivided easily into smaller segments of office and shop.

• Approximately 57,000 SF available for occupancy and 46,927 SF fully leased until April 2026.

• Fully sprinklered • Property is situated on two titles for excess yard of $14,999,999.00 separate development.

• Comfortably, room for a 40,000 SF building on second title. $14,999,999.00 • Division of lease space available • Very well maintained building • 24’ - 34’ Ceiling Height • Lot Size: 23.18 Acres - Two titles • OFFERING PRICE $14,900,000.00 ($142psf) 2019 appraisal values property at $15,000,000.00 - OWNER WILLING TO WORK WITH ALL OFFERS.

5509 5509 - 44 STREET LLOYDMINSTER, LLOYDMINSTER, AB

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FOR SALE/LEASE SALE/LEASE FOR

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• High exposure commercial property • Anchor tenant, The Brick, 22,000 SF • 11,071 SF vacant and available for lease • Ample parking • Excellent frontage exposure on Main Street • All turns access to site • Legal Description: Plan 1523924, Block 8, Lot 32 • Year Built: 1991 • Zoning: C2, Highway Corridor Commercial $12.00/SF $12.00/SF • Lot Size: 2.35 Acres • Total Building: 32,000 SF Ample parking parking Ample

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Legal Description: Description: Plan Plan 1523924, 1523924, Block 8, Lot 32 Legal Year Built: Built: 1991 1991 Year

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7 • Business of Energy • 7December • Business2020 of Energy • November 2021

Cover | Unsettled

“The U.S. accounts for about 13 per cent of global emissions right now, Canada is about one-tenth of that,” Koonin explains. “The reductions that are being proposed, if they came to pass, would be negated by a couple years of growth in the developing world emissions. And so it will have minimal direct impact on the climate itself but will be severely disruptive to the economy.” the weather, and we have seen extreme weather events this year. But climate is a long-term average and getting excited about the latest hurricane or fire or heat wave is an entirely fallacious representation of the climate.”

Government policies aimed at drastic emissions reductions (for example, zero emissions from the grid by 2035, a 50 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030, banning internal combustion engine sales by 2035, curtailing oil and gas production) will be extraordinarily disruptive and of little effect.

“The U.S. accounts for about 13 per cent of global emissions right now, Canada is about one-tenth of that,” Koonin explains. “The reductions that are being proposed, if they came to pass, would be negated by a couple years of growth in the developing world emissions. And so it will have minimal direct impact on the climate itself but will be severely disruptive to the economy.”

While global gatherings like COP26 are helpful in focusing the world’s attention on the issue, Koonin believes the more important issue is how do we get adequate energy to the three billion people in the world who do not have it:

“And right now, fossil fuels are the most reliable and convenient way of getting that energy.

And if the world takes steps to make that impossible, I think that’s immoral, unless you provide some other way for them to get energy.

I keep asking the question and I’ve been doing this now for 16 years, and I’ve yet to see a real answer to that.”

The availability of cheap and reliability energy is an issue in the developed world too. In Europe, the move away from fossil fuels towards more intermittent sources of energy such as wind and solar, combined with the decommissioning of nuclear power plants and the lack of reinvestment in fossil fuel sources, has caused an unprecedented supply crunch of natural gas (prices have soared almost 500 per cent this year and are trading at record highs). The problem threatens to intensify as winter sets in.

Highly complex and multi-variable, the issues of climate change and the world’s energy needs are intertwined. There exists no simple or straightforward answer for either. Koonin, for his part, attempts to clear the landscape and allow anyone interested to see the factual, scientific B data. It’s certainly a good place to start. OE

8 • Business of Energy • November 2021

Jeff MacPhee, Scott Kerr, Laura Pasveer, Chris Bachur and Doug Lewis.

Photo by Riverwood Photography.

A New Look and New Offering Lines at IronCreek

by Rennay Craats

I

t has been a decade heavy with challenges for businesses facing fluctuating energy markets, economic uncertainty and a global pandemic that brought many operations screeching to a halt. Despite it all, IronCreek has stayed the course since opening its doors 10 years ago and has pushed through the adversity to find growth and expansion on the other side.

“We’ve stickhandled through a lot of challenges over the last five years – half of our life—in an

extremely vicious, competitive market,” says Scott Kerr, president and CEO of IronCreek. “But over the past year or two we’ve expanded our footprint into three really exciting business lines.”

The first new line is horizontal directional drilling, or HDD. This area has been on Kerr’s radar for a few years, but the downturn coupled with COVID-19 restrictions and complications didn’t make for fertile ground for growth. But this spring, utilization rates were high and the overall market

IronCreek | Celebrating 10 years

9

These clean-burning units, which have been in operation in the United States for a number of years, not only offer a state-of-the-art system run from the operator’s smart phone but also qualify for carbon tax credits. scott kerr. Photo by Riverwood Photography.

was turning around, so the company could finally add HDD to its service portfolio. Among other jobs, IronCreek is currently working on a multiyear fibre build that is delivering high-speed internet to homes and businesses across Calgary.

HDD uses specialized equipment that can drill boreholes between 18 millimetres and 12 inches wide with minimal surface disturbance to protect existing infrastructure and the environment.

“The HDD division was part of our strategic plan to diversify away from the oilfield division. It is complementary because our busy months in HDD are the slow months for the oilfield rentals, so we can ramp up production on HDD when the oilfield side is slowing down to help stabilize our business as a whole,” says Jeff MacPhee, HDD general manager for IronCreek.

To further diversify its portfolio, IronCreek has invested in a green initiative offering innovative generators that use excess flare gas (or in some models solar cells) in closed-loop systems to generate on-site power. IronCreek is the exclusive Canadian supplier of LifeCycle Power turbine systems, which feature a trailer-mounted turbine that runs off natural gas to eliminate reliance on diesel generators. These systems exceed all environmental and emissions standards and have proven incredibly efficient while vastly reducing maintenance requirements. As they are portable and customizable, LCP turbines can provide electricity to a range of sites from oil rigs to remote communities.

These clean-burning units, which have been in operation in the United States for a number of years, not only offer a state-of-the-art system run from the operator’s smart phone but also qualify for carbon tax credits.

Jeff MacPhee. Photo by Riverwood Photography.

Laura Pasveer, Scott Kerr, Chris Bachur - (standing back corner), Jeff MacPhee and Doug Lewis.

Photo by Riverwood Photography.

“The company we’ve aligned with partnered with Caterpillar and General Electric to build these machines, so they are highly reputable companies,” says Kerr. “We’re bringing the technology to Canada and working with a number of our customers in oil and gas and outside the field for opportunities with the technology.”

While IronCreek is expanding its offerings, the company remains dedicated to providing the

10 • Business of Energy • November 2021

IronCreek | Celebrating 10 years | 2

quality services that established it as a leader in the business. It offers premium rental equipment and services to clients across Western Canada, with a head office in Cochrane, satellite locations across the region and a shop and yard in both Rocky Mountain House and Grande Prairie.

The company is known for its professionalism and quality and boasts an impressive catalog of excavator packages and products related to drilling and completions and surface equipment rentals covering everything from shale bins and pipe racks to rig mats and storage tanks. Great service and high quality products are key, and IronCreek sees its clients as partners who they are honoured to help succeed.

“Over our 10 years, the brutal environment and razor-thin margins have led us to become a very humble company that lives within our means in every aspect,” says Jason Lange, VP operations for IronCreek.

The team’s humility and hard work has contributed to its solid reputation in oil and gas and they are proud to service some of Canada’s biggest E & P companies in the industry. While it’s unusual for such A-list clients to put their trust in a smaller company, IronCreek has proven it’s up to the challenge and can deliver like a company twice its size. The team has worked hard to exceed expectations and remain a go-to company for these key clients. Kerr credits the incredible people on his team, who have worked to help grow the company through their dedication to quality, service and safety protocols, for the success IronCreek has enjoyed.

CONGRATULATIONS

to IronCreek on 10 years!

From your proud partners at Gallagher.

“I may be the quarterback but I’m passing them the ball and what they do with it from there creates the path for the whole company,” he says.

The result is a loyal team of professionals with a core management group that has stayed consistent over the years. Communication is key, both with clients and staff, and IronCreek maintains great support at the field level to ensure standards are met and that clients are happy.

IronCreek goes the extra mile to support staff professionally and personally, and the atmosphere in the office is more like a family than a workplace.

© 2021 Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. GBS41110

11 • Business of Energy • November 2021

IronCreek | Celebrating 10 years | 3

ajg.com/ca

Jason Lange, Michelle Wilton-West, Michelle Lange and Stuart Fink .

“It’s like [Richard Branson] said, ‘if you take care of your employees, they will take care of the clients.’

That’s IronCreek. The way they treat their employees really sets them apart,” says Jeff Herman, excavator operator for IronCreek.

rebranding with a fresh look, new logos and a new website that better reflects the company’s direction.

“We’re looking to grow our different segments now, we’ve got more service offering lines and diversifying with further opportunities States side for some of our technologies,” says Kerr. “We’re excited to see what the future brings for us.”

That future, with the growth of its rentals along with the addition of turbines and HDD opportunities, is bound to bring outstanding things for IronCreek.

“It’s like [Richard Branson] said, ‘if you take care of your employees, they will take care of the clients.’ That’s IronCreek. The way they treat their employees really sets them apart,” says Jeff Herman, excavator operator for IronCreek.

People come first at IronCreek, whether those people are employees, customers or members of the communities in which they operate. It’s important for Kerr that they give back, so IronCreek sponsors a variety of minor sports teams, rodeo events, Paralympics, 4H clubs and causes like the Alberta Heart and Stroke Foundation.

After a decade, IronCreek is proud to be a trusted partner to its community and its clients and is looking ahead to the next 10 years with optimism and excitement. After a tough few years, the company celebrated the 10-year milestone by

Head Office 2B – 70 Railway St E, Cochrane, AB T4C 2B5 403.932.2823 Rocky Mountain House 2 Gateway Way Drive, Rocky Mountain House, AB 403.844.9000 Grande Prairie (Shop Address) 5-732010 RR62, Building B, Sexsmith AB T0H 3C0 780.568.2126

ironcreekinc.com

12 • Business of Energy • November 2021

IronCreek | Celebrating 10 years | 4

Oil and Gas Will Power Alberta’s Robust Recovery in 2022 | David Yager

OIL & GAS WILL POWER ALBERTA’S ROBUST RECOVERY IN 2022

O

by David Yager

ne of the least recognized characteristics about Alberta is how our economy runs opposite to the rest of the world.

That’s what happens when you’re a player in global hydrocarbon energy markets. To mangle that old saying, what’s good for Alberta’s goose is expensive and painful for the oil and natural gas consuming gander.

International headlines are returning smiles to the faces of Albertans who, in November, will have endured seven consecutive years of economic challenges since oil prices collapsed in 2014.

That’s because reality has hit home worldwide.

The aspirations and determination of the climate crusader industry – that the entire world energy complex can must be retooled from fossil fuels to renewable electricity – have been derailed by significant and costly shortages of coal and natural gas.

Caused in part by years of highly political and poorly conceived public policy.

Electricity prices have skyrocketed in Europe because of natural gas shortages. Industries are shutting down. Consumers are howling. Cargoes of LNG imports are fetching top dollar.

For years, climate activists have opposed the development of new gas supplies in the UK and on European the continent. Fossil fuel divestment has become a badge of honor.

Even global producers like BP and Shell have

pledged to change their business models and abandon their core business. European banks proudly declared that they will no longer support investments in filthy fuels like coal and oil sands.

Overnight prices for electricity in Europe are two to four times higher than in Alberta. And the high demand winter heating season lies ahead.

Similar challenges are occurring in Asia. China is so short of coal for electricity that it is rationing power. A recent Bloomberg News headline read, “China Orders Top Energy Firms to Secure Supplies at All Costs.”

Spot cargoes of LNG in Japan reached US$34/ gigajoule. On a barrel of oil equivalent basis that’s nearly US$200. Analysts are looking at the global supply chain and wondering where it is headed, what will be available on store shelves, and what things will cost.

Then there’s food. According to the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization, the Food Price Index globally was up 33 per cent in September of 2021 compared to a year earlier. According to data analysed by Alastair Smith, senior teaching fellow in global sustainable development, University of Warwick, “Based on real prices, it is currently harder to buy food on the international market than in almost every other year since UN record-keeping began in 1961.”

Food and energy. Besides water, air, shelter, clothing and medicine, what else is required for human survival?

13 • Business of Energy • November 2021

David Yager | Oil and Gas Will Power Alberta’s Robust Recovery in 2022

Why should this cause Albertans to smile?

Because for years we have been subjected to unwanted advice and financially punitive actions and policies. Our oil is the world’s worst.

Our economy is not sufficiently diversified. We complain too much. We vote for the wrong political parties.

But the very reason that 4.4 million people live in this otherwise underpopulated region of North America will be the foundation of a significant economic recovery in 2022 and beyond.

As the world is forced to face the commercial realities of finite energy and food supplies, Alberta will happily supply both.

And perhaps markets will again be allowed to decide how much of what we can produce and export, not politicians in Ottawa, Quebec and B.C. Last February I wrote the following on this page about the post-pandemic economy.

“Oil. Natural gas. Agriculture. Minerals. Forestry.

The things that built Canada and Alberta. The bread-and-butter industries that urban dwellers and millennials don’t understand; the essentials of life that are taken for granted because there has never been a shortage. Post-pandemic, Canada will be forced back to the basics.

Blessed with a disproportionate share of what modern civilization cannot live without, Alberta’s economy will rise once again.”

And away we go. The big picture economic indicators for Alberta are strong. Oil prices have recovered and may rise further. Natural gas prices are the highest since 2014.

According to ARC Energy Research Institute’s October 5 report, Canada’s oil and gas production is back to eight million barrels of oil equivalent per day, the fifth highest output in the world. Mostly from Alberta.

Total revenue from production will be the highest in history in 2021 – $148 billion. After tax cash flow – funds available for reinvestment after all the bills are paid – is estimated at $79 billion. That is $12 billion more than the last record in 2014.

After outlasting pipeline opponents in the U.S., Enbridge Line 3 finally went into service in early

October. This will add about 370,000 barrels a day of incremental pipeline takeaway capacity, the first major addition in years. Despite ongoing protests, construction of the Trans Mountain expansion to the west coast continues. As does Coastal GasLink, the pipeline that will finally put Canada and Alberta in the LNG export business in a big way.

Albertans will not be spared the higher cost of food at the grocery store. Increased transportation costs from higher fuel prices and the promised Liberal carbon tax increases will continue to be baked into food production and transportation prices.

But at least some of the money we spend on groceries will find its way back into Alberta’s economy through local producers of beef, chicken, pork, grains and increasingly, greenhouse vegetables.

That said, all the extra cash from oil and gas production has not yet translated into jobs and opportunity like in past years.

The impact of a quarter-century of climate activism cannot be reversed overnight.

Publicly traded oil and gas producers remain under significant pressure from their investors not to put their money back in the ground to increase oil and gas production. This is the first time in history that there is significant external pressure to not grow or even sustain what is currently a fabulously profitable business.

The message is perplexing. We know you’re making a ton of money producing oil and gas.

We know the world is short of both.

But what climate motivated ESG investors are saying is, “The world will be better served if you give the money to us because it is more important to save the climate tomorrow than prevent energy poverty affecting billions of people today.”

While rising food prices may be related to the pandemic and poor crop yields, energy shortages in the developed world this winter exist largely because of climate politics and the fantasy that fossil fuels are easy to replace.

Oil and Gas Will Power Alberta’s Robust Recovery in 2022 | David Yager

Fortunately, producers are already planning to increase capital budgets for 2022. Their supply chains are being notified to ramp up capacity for next year. Demand has risen so much in 2021 that worker shortages have become the latest challenge. COVID protocols whereby workers must be vaccinated to undergo continuous rapid testing are pressuring the workforce.

The commencement of LNG exports in 2025 will start driving investment in new gas supplies much sooner that that. Growing LNG exports from the U.S. are improving North American gas prices and markets. Drilling for natural gas used to be the primary driver of Alberta’s oilpatch. It is already returning, a trend that will continue well beyond 2022.

If Canada wakes up and acknowledges the global LNG opportunity, this could finally become the major economic driver that it was supposed to be a decade ago.

Yet another of Canada’s many mistakes.

As for the newly re-elected Liberal government, the Trudeau administration has much bigger issues to deal with than what Alberta will or will not be permitted to do. It has a growing deficit and massive spending commitments to manage.

Meanwhile, Alberta’s public finances will continue to improve. This was demonstrated in 2021 and will get better in 2022 as oil and gas royalties, corporate and payroll taxes increase.

Unlike 2015 and 2019, climate was not a major issue in recent federal election. There is no federal or provincial interference in the uncompleted oil and gas export pipelines through B.C. to tidewater.

Certainly, the Liberals have stated that emissions from oil and gas production must be reduced further. But producers accept that, and finally have the free cash to meet the challenge. New methods of methane emission reductions and carbon capture utilization and storage are being developed across North America and Europe. The best and cheapest practices from Alberta can be implemented here and exported. Better ideas from abroad can be imported and applied.

As inflation rises and increasing costs for everything challenge the entire Canadian economy, the ideal outcome for Alberta would be if Ottawa just leaves us alone.

Because of high deficits and debt, they might enjoy an increase in corporate income taxes, payroll taxes and all the other economic benefits associated with a strong Canadian oil and gas industry.

Alberta’s economic future looks bright. Why? Because global markets are a powerful force beyond the control of climate change policy influencers and vote-seeking politicians.

In commodities we trust.

That’s why we’re here, and that’s why we’re staying.

B O E

David Yager is a Calgary oil service executive, energy policy analyst, writer and author.

He is president and CEO of Winterhawk Well Abandonment Ltd., a methane emission reduction technology company. His 2019 book From Miracle to Menace - Alberta, A Carbon Story is available at www.miracletomenace.ca.

Oil & Gas Will Power Alberta’s Robust Recovery in 2022

Watching Europeans struggle this winter will raise serious doubts about the genius of ESG investing.

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