OcALTFoRNIA REDwooDO

Milfs at Sarnoa and ErrreLa, Cdifornia

San Francisco Los Angeles

Fo.recast lor 1951

"F{orr.re building will undoubtedly shou' a decrease in 1951," accorcling to the follou'ing forecast by W. H. Upson, Jr., presiclent of The Upson Company, I-ockport, N. Y. "The Federal Reserve Board's Regulation X sets a tough credit policy on residential housing. Authorities in Washington conter.nplate this restriction will reduce the record number of housing ur-rits from 1,025,100 starts in 1949 to about 850,000 housing units in 1951. Personally, I would not be surprised to see the decline in 1951 even greater than the 30/o to 35/o now now predicted, because a snowball gains momentum of itself. Oftentin-res it is difficult to apply brakes once a decline has been started ancl thereby has created doubt and uncertainty.

"But even this lesser volume will afford a healthy nucleous for the building trade and, of course, the statement has been freely nTade that if the restrictions are too severe, they rvill be liberalized.

"I do not think there is cause for the extreme pessimism reflected by sorne lurnber dealers and builders. If w'e build only 800,000 housing units in 1951, we u,ould still be building more than lvere built in twenty of the thirty years since 1920.

"We know that even with the construction of almost 5,000,000 homes in the last five years, there is still an inadequate supply of housing for the mass market-a shortage of rvhich the building industry is keenly aware and which, to its credit, be it said, it has been feverishly seeking to reduce.

"l]nfavorable influences include the credit restrictions of Regulation X-the need of building materials for defensethe constantly increasing price of labor-and excessive high prices for some building materials in critical supply. The present fourth cycle of rvage advances must inevitably result in higher prices for building materials and these prices in turn rvill increase the cost of building. Some building materials rvhich have been selling at sLy-top prices will undoubtedly rececle. But naturally, materials which made only moderate price advances cannot take comparable reductions.

"trIuch of the building in l95l u'ill probably be in the lowerpriced houses because of current restrictions.

"It rvould seem that 1951 rvould be a good year for general industry. Some branches of industry, especially those engaged in defense u-ork, will probably be extremely busy. Continued high wages will undoubtedll' tax the capacity of consumer goods. In fact, it $'ill be surprising if there is not more money than goods. This rvill result in increased savings and increased prices. In other u'ords, real n'ages, as expressed by purchasing value of the dollar, may decline somervhat. I-abor will continue scarce although production r*'ill probably be reduced. Some consumer goods u'ill ultimately be in critical supply, if not actually rationed."

Opens Brcnch Ycrd in Scm Rdcrel

Dicknsons Lumber Co. of San Francisco opened a branch r-ard at 665 Invin Street. San Rafael, Calif., December 1. The yard rvill carry a stock of lumber and building materials. The telephone number is San Rafael 2618. Irlerton Hipslef is general manager of this yard and of the main yard at Jerrold & Quint Streets, San Francisco. R. E. (Dick) \[ussallem is the orrner.