EaerJ/ Big Business %as Emall Once

are willing to take the personal risks of today for the rewards of tomorrow, because every man in business is in partnership with the future. Tomorrow always comes, and as long as our sons find a hammer, nails and a few boards, they will build for the future, with the same fervor and courage as their fathers and grandfathers, and the echoes of their hammers will resound hopefully through every corner of the world.

The spirit of enterprise is young-eternally young. Opportunity beckons to all ages, but the urge "to start something" is most insistent in the mind of youth. Achievement in our land reflects the imagination, ideals and energy of young people.

Businessmen in our country, always young in spirit,

Thir illurtrotlain ir bored on o photogroph mode in l9tl4 by o credir reporter from o :oulhcrn ofice of Dun & Brod:treet who corricd c corncrs in hit cor, pcrrly for hir own omusement, ond occorionclty or on cid in hir crcdir invefigotionr. A locol wholcrole confectioncr hod rcccivcd on ordcr for $lO.0O worth of ccndy bcrr from the Horsie Hollow Condy Shop. lr wol o Crd order, ond whcn thr crcdif monogcr didn't find the name lirrod in fhc leferuncc Book, hc phoncd the Dun & Brodrtnct oficc for o r.porl on lhe venlur.. Thc rcporlcr orsigned to t'hc colc locotcd the concorn on o dirt rood, iurt ofi c moin highwuy, ond hc took rhe snoprhot of lhc prcmirer ond itr bury proprietor. Hc intaryi.rcd lhe owncn qnd wrole d leporl which was forwordcd ct oncc lo thc u'tolesolor. lt informcd the wholcrsler rhqt thc enlcrprirc wcr opcrolcd oe o portncrrhip by rwo neighborr who were both "eloven yrorr of cge ond unncrricd." Thc rcporter olco obreryed thol "olrhough rhc owne6 ore mcn of limited rnront, lhcy lrovc o high :londing in thcir community." fhe finonciol $otement indicored o$ers of $13.25 in mcrchondisc ond corh, with q voluotion of 135.0O for rhc building conristing of o rcmodcled lurkcy coop. tho portnerr werc rcporlcd or cxperienccd with o fivc-yeor record of relling lcnonodc ond coohier with their homc ponlricr or the principol rourccr of:upply. lhero wo: no indebtcdnelr or thcir mothers' t.rm3 wore .lricrly C.O.D. fhc wholcsoler took a morr liborol ottitude and rhippcd on regulor tcrmr. Thc bill wrr poid in tcn doys, and thc wholcrolcr opened on qcGounl on his ledgcr rhcct for the "Horsie Hollow Gcndy Shop."

Home Builders Coutious on | 957 Outlook Bur Expect Higher Cosls

Washington-The nation's home builders expect higher to remain tight in 1957, or for credit money to become even price tags on houses constructed in 1957. more unobtainable at reasonable rates.

That is a firm conclusion. Otherwise, the home builders are uncertain how many new houses they will build next year. Housing starts are expected to be down from this year's anticipated output of 1,100,000 new homes.

However, one thing is certain-home builders are confident they will sell every house they build in 1957.

They expect the heavy demand for new homes will be refected in sales as good or better than this year.

These conclusions are based on a survey of 6@ home builders made by the National Association of Home Builders. Results of the survey were released in November by Joseph B. Haverstick, NAHB president.

The 6@ builders are members of the NAHB Builders' Economic Council, and they represent 6,000 years of home building experience.

The survey disclosed that the median price on the 1957 house is expected to be about $15,200, as compared to $l4,7AO this year. This is an increase of. about 3.4/o.

Haverstick said the survey confirms his repeated and previous advice: "Now is the time to buy a new home before costs go up. You cg.n't get a better bargain."

Chief reasons cited by reporting builders for the anticipated rise in home prices were these: fncreasing land and construction costs; the demand by prospective home buyers for bigger houses, and the difficulty in financing lower-priced houses.

The uncertainty in the number of new housing starts is caused mainly by the tight mortgage money market. Many builders were unable to estimate their own plans for next year because of the painfully-pinching money situation.

Ordinarily, by this time of the year builders have firmed their plans for the following year. But now these plans, in many cases, can only be said to be "tentative."

Most of the builders expect the mortgage credit market

Should financing continue unsatisfactory in the forthcoming year, lxany builders may be forced to cut back even their current tentative plans.

Seven out of 10 reporting builders anticipated that housing starts will decline next year. The general expectation is for a I0/o median decline nationally from 1956.

Despite the uncertainty, some builders-depending on their areas of operation-are cautiously optimistic about 1957.

This optimism is supported by Albert M. Cole, Housing and Home Finance Administrator. Cole says he expects housing construction to continue at what he calls the "present very high level" until 1960. lle foresees no decline in housing starts from the current level of 1,100,000 between now and 1960.

The reporting builders cited as plus factors in continuing the high level of construction in the growth of new industries, the decreasing inventory of unsold houses, and the ever-increasing demands of prospective home buyers.

These factors are in line with Cole's expectation that the current boom in industrial building and expansion will pass next year and thus free more funds for mortgages for residential building. He also forecast the formation of new family groups in the years ahead which would cause a housing boom "the like of which has never been seen.,,

As for the unfavorable factors-the home builders iroted these:-(in addition to lack of mortgage money) the downpayment requirements and inadequate FHA valuations or VA appraisals.

The survey turned up one curious statistic. While the reporting builders expected a l0o/o median down turn nationally in new housing starts, they anticipated only a 5o/e decrease in their own localities.

Here are some other results of the NAHB survev:

IHE NATIONAT TUIIBER IIANU. FACIURERS ASSOC|ATION, Nolionol Arrociqtion of Homc Buildcrs, West Coost lumbermen'r Astocisfion, Werlern Pine Arsociction, Cqlifornio ted. wood Arrociqtion. Operolion Home lmprovcmenl ond qll othar groups ore going olong wirh rhc Deoler in t957 fo find new ond remodeling markch for his chief building mste?iol SPEAKING OF WOOD-The

Before qnd After phofor ot the lefi sre Exhibir ,,A.,, ,,Thi: ole house" wor in o worse woy thqn the one in lhe populcr rong bafori o remodeling speciolisl discovered thot rhe lumber in ir would serve for snolh€r centu?y or two. fhe cyerore, iust two blocks frorn the notion's Copifol in Wcshington, D.C,, wor brought bock to the bloon of its youth 150 yeors ogo; the wood siding on the front wos given the some decorotive tredlmanl ol George Woshington used qt Mount Vernon-qn exomple of lhe rerlorolion now going on in fhc hisloric Copitol Hill orec. How's YOUR Neighborhood?

1. Almost half of the builders will make basic model changes in the 1957 homes.

2. Two-fifths of the builders will be starting homes without firm commitments for mortgages.

3. Only one builder out of four sells from inventory or during construction only. One out of 10 sells from models only. Most builders use combinations.

4. About 4O/o ol the builders reported no completed or unsold homes. Completed and unsold homes amounted to less than one-half month's production. Only one out of three repor.ted that his, unsold units, either completed or under construction, were up over last year.

5. Reporting builders had many sales ahead of finished construction or even starts.

6. One builder out of three handles trade-ins. However, these do not account for too large a proportion of their volume. FHA firm commitments are not used very much in trade-ins

7. One builder out of four reported doing some home improvement and rehabilitation (fix-up) work. This accounted for about 8/o of. the dollar volume of those doing such work.

Continued Shortoge of lorger ond Better Homes Will Sustoin Vqst Building Products Mqrketr Soys House I Home

Today's tough selling market offers a golden opportunity having a tough time getting mortgage money, that the day for smart building materials producers. While it is well of Anything Sells is past, the fact remains that houses, and knorn'n that new housing starts are off, that builders are the products that go into them, which are sold right, priced right, sized right and merchandised right, are doing welland getting a larger share of the market.

Prefcrbs Colled Big Lumber Merrket

A leading manufacturer of prefabricated homes declares that greater use of lumber can reduce the cost and boost the quality of prefab housing. P. S. Knox, president of the Prefabricated Home Manufacturers' Institute, suggested a speed-up in the simplification and standardization of lumber sizes as first step in this direction. Addressing an annual meeting of the National Lumber Manufacturers Association, Knox called for closer cooperation between lumbermen and prefab home producers to cut overhead expenses, reduce waste and bring about a "vast increase" in the use of lumber for prefabricated housing.

He said prefab men rvill use the knowledge gained from more frequent get-togethers rvith lumbermen "to build better houses at lower cost-using more lirmber." Knox also urged the lumber industry to take the lead in developing ner'v home building materials. He asserted:

"Prefab plants are beginning to develop important resources for research, and some of us ar€ seriously interested in some of the new plastics and honeycomb materials that are being developed as by-products of the lumber industry.

"Prefabs furnish a large and fairly immediate market for these materials from lumber and lumber waste, and having such a ready-made market should offer real stimulus to you as the men r.vho are guiding the future of the lumber industry."

Prefabs accounted for about 100,000 homes or nearly L|o/o of. all new single-family housing starts in 1955, Knox said. "f b€lieve," he declared, "that in the next 15 or 20 years, fully 900/6 of. all the houses built wiU be prefabricated-" Knox estimated that the prefab housing industry will nearly double its consumption of lumber and wood products this year as compared with 1954. Last year, according to Knox, prefab housing consumed more than 400 rnillion board feet of lumber, some 250 million feet of plywood, more than 78 million board feet of flooring, 847,N0 doors, and some 52 million feet of wood trim.

This was the theme of the Fourth Annual Marketing Conferences on the home building otitlook for 1957, conducted across the country by House & Home, the professional magazine of the home building industry. Initial sessions of these meetings for major executives and marketing counselors of building material and equipment producers have been held in Seattle, Oct. 23; Portland, Oct. 24; San Francisco, Oct. 25, and. Los Angeles, Oct. 30.

The major reason why today's cofnpetitive market is a boon to quality products, according to House & Home editors, marketing stafi and industry experts addressing these conferences, is found in the fact that the bigger and better house is today's best seller. For example, hardly anyone builds one-bathroom houses anymore, whereas 83lo of all new 1950 houses had only one bath-so this year's 1,100,000 new houses are a much bigger market for everything that goes into new bathrooms. Other examples also show how fewer, but bigger and better houses, require a greater amount of quality building products:

Today's houses include in the package two or three times as many new ranges and refrigerators, four or five times as many dishwashers, home laundries, garbage disposers . .

Today's house has a lot more and bigger windows, so the market for windows is bigger than ever, and richer than ever. ,

Today's houses use twenty or thirty times as many sliding glass walls .

Today's house is bigger, so it uses more lumber.

It uses 100 times rnore acoustical products

It uses a lot more quality flooring

It uses a lot more insulation.

Market for Larger, Better Houses Still Immense

This trend to the bigger, better house is bound to continue, according to these marketing conferences, because the demand for such homes is almost as acute today as the demand for shelter alone in the immediate postwar period. Since 1941, the number of families u'ith incomes below $3,000 has dropped from 10,090,@0 to 5,233,000 in 1953, and, at the present rate of change will probably fall to around 3,000,000 families by 1959. The low-income family is the vanishing American.

BUT, by contrast, still speaking in constant dollars:-

'l'he rttntl,t'r ,,i i:rnrili('s \\'itlr irre ,,lrc: ,,,, cr- $5.( )()0 lrtrs >kr-roclit'tt'ri ir-orn N.frOi.()(X) irr l')Jl lr, l()..101.( )(X) in 1()5.1. rtttrl :t lrt'ol,:Llrlc J.r.(X)0,()(10,)l- ln()r'(' lr-r l()51) lle rc is lt rrr;rrlict iol ll.(X)i ).( ){ )1) rnorc lrt'ttt'r. lrorrrt's and we haven't built 3,000,000 homes for that market since 1929. lrrt'lrrrlcrl irr 1lr;rt 17,()()().(X)O is ;L nlLrlit't ir,r rrc;Lrl-r' (r.()il{). ()( )0 rr,rr-t,ir,rlscs lrr-icrrl irt $lx.()()0 (,r llrl)l-r,. and l,r'e haven't built 1,000,000 houses for that market in 25 years!

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Flon Two Lqrge Desert Trqcts

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