lumber Dips Then Rebounds in Forty-Nine An Editorial

Aboutthe first of last July it looked like the lumber industry was headed for some sort of depression. A recession had admittedly arrived and taken over the situation. The demand for lumber fell continually, prices dipped and dipped some more, pretty much in keeping with what was taking place in all the other important industries in the country. The effects of the dip differed considerably with various species and territories, but the whole lumber structure showed a lot of weakness.

Douglas Fir,withits tremendous mills and elasticity of production, seemed to suffer the sharpest blows, and, with the high price of labor and supplies in the Northwest, it was the weak link in the big lumber chain when the second half of 1949 started. The vacation season was deliberately lengthened, and numerous mills closed down, stating frankly that it was because of market conditions. Western Pine districts reported general market weakness, also, as did Southern Pine, while Southern hardwoods went deeply into the doldrums. The Redwood situation was not happy, either.

Then, quite suddenly and almost without warning, lumber began picking up. Lumber students watched the improvement warily, and had little to say in the way of prophecy. The demand for Fir drove steadily back up the hill, and prices went along. The mills were all soon running again.

To help the situation in Fir along came a very real and in some districi:s severe car shortage which still prevails as this is written. Southern Yellow Pine reports on produ,ction, sales, and shipments, suddenly took a right-aboutface and showed orders considerably surpassing production. Southern Pine boomed. The entire Western Pine market took on the same improved picture, and Southern Hardwoods came back into strong demand with improved prices. The whole face of the lumber industry changed in optimistic fashion. Hardwood flooring, which had become deplorably weak, especially with low grade items, acted like it had a shot in the arm, and swung sharply upward, both in price and demand. Redwood showed a general surge upwards.

As this piece is being written, optimism is reflected in every part and parcel of the lumber market. What of the immediate future ? Every man to his own notion, but most of the calm students of lumber think we are certain of a strcng lumber market for several months to come, at the veryleast. We have a very powerful market today in Southern Pine, Douglas Fir, Redwood, Western Pine, and Southern hardwoods.

Things are in far better condition throughout the indutry than the most optimistic would have predicted on July 1.