\rVestern Pine Production for 1948 Wiil Smash Previous Records

By ROBERT O. LEONARD Western Pine Association Portlcnd, Oregron

Based upon early fourth quarter trends, it appears probbable that Western Pine Region sawmills will set new shipment and production records of more than seven billion feet each in 194&-and at the same time building up mill inventories to a point where they can give better service to their dealer and user customers.

Each of the two figures is expected to exceed 1947 lecord volumes by some 500 million feet. Production, last year 6729 million, likely will top 72fi million, and shipments, 6552 million last year, will probably reach an even seven billion.

The prodigious production has been accomplished despite first-half factors which contrived, in the first six months, to hold output at only 102.9 per cent of the 1947 mid-point total. An uncertain economic outlook brought about by election year politics, unsettled foreign relations, unfavorable weather conditions, a sharp break in commodity prices and serious coal, meat packing and other industry strikes is widely considered to have been a depressive influence on general first quarter business over the nation. But, ignoring the momentary pessimism, Western Pine production rose to 1248 million feet, 11.8 per cent above the previous year's figure.

The worst spring weather in many years, including the disastrous northwest floods, hammered second quarter production down to 1824 million f.eet, 2.3 per cent below the 1947 mark, and reduced the first half margin to 2.9 per cent over 1947. But the third quarter output jumped t:o 2367 million feet, a record level and 14.1 per cent over that of the corresponding 1947 period,. The mark raised the three-quarter total to an estimated 5435 million, 7.6 per cent over the identical 1947 period,.

Shipments generally followed the course of production. The first period total was 1387 million, 5.9 per cent over 1947. Despite the bad weather, second quarter shipments failed to slump as sharply as production, amounting to 1716 million f.eet,2.4 per cent greater than for the previous year, and in the third quarter hit 2074 million, 13 per cent over 1947. The three-quarter total was 5177 million,7.2 per cent over the identical 1947 period

While continued high shipments have taken the great bulk of production, inventories have continued to creep upward from wartime lows. Totaling 148 million feet at the end of 1947, gross stocks stood at 1479 million on Oct. 1, 1948, 40 per cent above the average wartime low for that time of year but still more than 25 per cent under the 2000 million average prevailing in the late 1930s, a period, too, when shipments were a great deal less.

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