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Son Froncisco Xlorketing Conference Told Nqtion Will Need 12 to 121/z Million New Homes From 1956-65

San Francisco, September 12-The National Housing Center's first Executive Marketing Conference today he*ird Nathaniel Rogg, economist for the National Association of Home Buildeis, predict a basic-shelter reqirirement for the nation of !2 to 121/, million new homes in the decade 1956 to 1955. F.or the decade beyond that he indicated the need wsuld be more than 16 million new homes.

These figures, Rogg told the gathering of senior officers of the nation's largest manufacturers of building matertals and equipment, are the minimum.requirements-for merely standing still. They are figures based on population gro-wth. and make no allowance for the accelerated removal of old inadequate dwelling un'rts, for any imProvement-in housing, for th6 needs of people with growing families who want increased living space, and for the people who want to move into a house larger than they already own'

"If the home building industry stands still in this expanding America," Rogg declared, "it, is lo-sing gr6und. IJ this industry is content to be basically-a irinimum shelter indusiry, content to respond merely to needs of our people for four walls and a roof, then the people of this industryhave lost out on the greatest potentiil market opportunity this nation has ever seen, itra tne American- people have certainly been shortchanged on their opportunities for better living.

"If. bv the time we reach 1965, we are only going to maintairi our competitive position, with respect to consumer spending, to keep up the-12.3/o of income now going into sirelter dipense, tnen it will be necessary for us to increase our cuttetri home-building volume yearly over the 1956 level bv over $2 billion. In t6rms of an average $i5,000 sales piice, this means raising the current volume by several hundred thousand additional units a vear, merely to stand still. If, on the other hand, we are to show as *uc6 improvement in the next ten years in this battle for the consumer's interest as we did in the last ten, we shall have to increase our production by close to a half-million units a year.

"The home-building industry is on the threshold now of seeing what improved merchandising, improved product, improved pricing and marketing patterns can do to. stimulate consumer interest in spending more of their discretionary dollars for housing. Properly to appraise the market potential, therefore, we must hopefully take into account the prospects such as they are-that the industry may begin to function more efficiently and competitively within the over-all economy, to merchandise more effectively and to compete more readily with other industries for the consumer's pocketbook.

"Basic among the industry's problems," Rogg continued, "is changing consumer preferences. The shelter requirement is there, the income base is there, too; the basic problem is in product, price and merchandising. Whether the industry gets beyond the minimum shelter needs set forth above depends to a large degree on what kind of programs and goals it sets for itself.

"The housing challenge of the past generation," Rogg concluded, "was to provide adequate housing for our people. With some exceptions, we have measured up to much of that challenge. The challenge of the next generation goes beyond this. It is to provide all our people with the opportunities for better living through better housing. We have lost ground in the past two years on that challenge. We are losing ground today. You are the people who can, who must, arrest that trend and meet that challenge."