Home-Building Surge ltqy Spur Lumber Output

By N. Floyd McGowin, President.

National Lumber Manufacturers

Assn.

Lumber production is showing signs of recovering from the abnormal lows of recent months. Much of this is traceable to growing indications that the nation is on the verge of a new surge in home building.

While lumber output during the first three months of 1958-7,311,000,000 board f eet-was down an estimated 10lo from the year-ago level, figures for the second quarter are expected to show a somewhat smaller percentage of decline.

The biggest months for lumber output-June, July, August and September-could boost this year's total output to the point where it equals-or even exceeds by two or three percent-the 1957 level of 33,391,000,000 board feet.

Much, of course, depends on general economic conditions. Regardless of what the federal government does to stimulate home building, our country's general business climate will have a marked influence on housing demand during the succeeding months of 1958.

At the same time, a strong showing in home building could be a key factor in helpin[ the couitry to recover frori its present economic downturn.

It is interesting to note that lumber production during the first quarter of this year has been only a shade below output in the same months of 1950. As home building moved into high gear during the middle and closing months of 1950and went on to establish a new all-time record of nearly 1.4 million units for the entire year-lumber production likewise rallied to a postwar peak of 38,902,000,000 board feet.

Many manufacturers believe the lumber market has hit its present bottom and that from here on out the only way is up. I am one inclined to share the view that our industry is on the upswing. Here are some of the circumstances that suppor_t that view:

1. In many parts of the country, poor weather has been responsible for curtailing lumber output during recent weeks. Sunshine and dry weather could do much to change the picture in these areas.

2. Lumber inver.rtories at the mill have leveled off in recent months, so the ir.rdustry is in a much better position now to feel the full salutary effects of a pickup in new busiNESS.

3. For the industry as a whole, production has been cut to the point where it is now about equal to shipmet.rts. This should head off any new build-up of unwieldy stocks.

4. A sample survey of 480 mills shows new orders for the first 19 weelis of 1958to be running about 4/c above production.

5. Signs of an improvement in farm income suggest a more favorable outlook for farm construction, a prime market for lumber.

6. Railroad and industrial ulant demand be expected to improve once these segments share in a general business upturn.

7. Reports from retail lumber dealers indicate a feeling of optimism for the coming months. Retail stocks, like mill inventories, have been reduced, so any appreciable increase in retail demand would be translated quickly into new business for the manufacturer.

Actually, 1958 may turn out to be a year in which the lumber industry l-ras had to mark time. I\'{any manufacturers are taking advantage of the lull to seek new ways of lorvering production costs, improving quality control procedures and developing better customer relations.

This will put our industry in a stronger position to take advantage of next year's opportunities-most notably, the prospect of a banner year in home building.

One of the most encouraging developments of late has been the acceptance by lumber manufacturers throughont the country of a new million-dollar natiorral u'ood mer-

July Sets Another All-Time Los Angeles Building Record

July building activity in Los Angeles set a new, alltime, one-month record for the city, with L. A. County figures also soaring well above botl.r June this year and last July. Gilbert Morris, general manager of the Los Angeles Building & Safety Dept., said the city's $80,000,000 in July building permits was $14 million above June. The year's first seven months saw $384,000,000 in permits issued by the city, exceeding the same 1957 span by $63 million.

County Engineer John A. Lambie said that the $26,208,000 in building permits issued during July in county areas and cities served by the County Building & Safety Division compares with 922,095,000 issued in Jur.re.

chandising program developed by the National Lumber Manufacturers Association.

This program, expected to be launched later this year, will do much to help the industry recover and retain markets lost to competitive materials.

All tl-rese factors-and others which there is not the space to metrtion here-suggest that the lumbet industry has a right to view the coming months of 1958 with confidence and at least some degree of optimism.

Directo.ry of Cqbin Designs Offered Deolers by DFPA

A new booklet from the Douglas Fir Plywood Association will help lumber dealers cash in on the growing American trend toward a second home. The l2-page booklet, "Leisttre-Time Homes of Fir Plywood," is a directory ol 2O vacation cabin designs.

Customers who are thinking about building a second home can use the booklet as a reference aid, and dealers can then sell them the plywood and other materials needed for construction.

The booklet features five cabins for which plans are available from DFPA, and 15 from other sources. Color views and floor plans are included for all 20. Six cabins are given full-page presentations, including color illustrations of interior and exterior, floor plan, and a brief clescription. Sources of further information on all 20 cabins are included.

One of the designs is a weekend beach cottage, planned for a family of five, but able to accommodate as many as eight. It has 600 square feet of living space inside, plus a 480-sq. ft. sun deck.-Materials for the 6each cottage come to about $2.600.

A second beach or mountain cabin has an unusual A-frame design, with sheets of fir plywood serving as giant "shingles" for the roof. Two top-deck bedrooms are reached by arioutside stairway. Porch.-living room, built-in kitchen and bathroom are on the first deck.

Other designs in the booklet include a seaside summer house, with living and sleeping quarters facing each other across a partly roofed, screened court ; a "cabin-in-thewoods," with four wings radiating from a central fireplace and a steeply pitched roof to shed snow and resist winds; and a conventional, economical, 4OO-square-foot vacation cabin, costing about $1,000 for materials.

Dealers may obtain copies of "Leisure-Time Homes of Fir Plywood" from the Douglas Fir Plywood Association, Tacoma 2, Washington. A 25-booklet display carton, including promotional material, costs $2.50. Plans for the five DFPA cabins are available for 15c each. Prices of plans or further information on the other cabins mav be obtained bv writing to sorlrces listed in the booklet.