Forest Forecost Reveqls Sowtimber Growth Will Be lO% Higher Thon Removcl Rqte Through Yeors 1975 - 2OOO

Continuation of present progressive trends in forest management will increase sawtimber growth to a level about lO/o higher than removal by 1975 and will sustain growth at this level through the year 2000.

This is the conclusion of a noted forest economist, Dr. John A. Zivnuska, associate professor of forestry at the University of California, whose report on his own independent analysis of the U. S. Forest Service T.imber Resource Review (preliminary draft issued last October, Page 64, CLM, 12-1-55), is summarized \n a new booklet, "More Timber Today-and Tomorrow."

Dr. Zivnuska's analysis of the TRR takes into account forecasts of increasing wood demands resulting from increasing population and progress in wood research. Extra copies of the booklet, with Dr. Zivnuska's complete !:eport, are available from the Forest Resources Council, Room 1712, 2hEast 42nd Street. New York 17. N. Y.

Dr. Zivnuska says the TRR actually shows the current forest situa'tion in the United States to be "substantially better" than had been anticipated in earlier Forest Service studies.

"There is clear evidence that productive forestry efforts have been produced and are producing good results, and that the future holds the opportunity for further progress," the economist said.

When the USFS made public the TRR preliminary draft in October, it stated that the nation's timber requirements are expected to be so high by the end of the century that timber growth will need to be from 70 to 120% greater than it nolv is. Also, the release added, "Improved forest management at recent rates of progress appears unequal to providing a balance between cut and growth at the year 2ffi0."

In making public the preliminary draft of its three-year study, the Forest Service requested review and comment. The Forest Industries Council, as policy-coordinating agency for the lumber and paper industries, sponsored an impartial appraisal by Dr. Zivnuska.

"The Forest Service study includes estimates of the volume of forest products which should be consumed in the expanding economy of the future, if observable price trends and other economic forces develoo as indicated by past experience," said Dr. Zivnuska. "These estimates dicate an increase of 27d7o in industrial consumption of mestic roundwood lrom 1952 to 1975, and an increase 73% by 2fffi.

"If the actual cut corresponds to that estimated by the Forest Service for this level of output, the material in the TRR indicates that a continuation of present trends in forestry will raise board foot growth to a level about IO/o higher than cut by 1975 and will sustain growth about this much higher than cut through 2000. This is not shown in the preliminary draft of the TRR, since a projection of future {orest growth and inventory presented by the Forest Service is based on a cut rising to a level of l5/. above that indicated by its own requirements estimates."

A. M. Chqudhury From Pokiston Visits los Angeles on lumber Survey

A. M. Chaudhury, representative of the Forest Directorate, Dacca, Pakistan, was a visitor in Los Angeles June 12, when he stopped over in the southland on his srving throughout the United States visiting lumber mills and processing companies in key sections of the country.

While in Southern California he rvas the guest of Herb Geisenheyner, general manager of the Coast Kiln Company, Vernon, who conducted Mr. Chaudhury on a visit to various mills and kilns in the Los Angeles industrial area.

The training and survey trip rvas sponsored by the International Cooperation Administration, Washington, D.C. When he left Los Angeles Mr. Chaudhury made scheduled stops in San Francisco, Oregon and the Pacific Northwest prior to his return to the east coast.

New Gerlinger 'G' Procticol

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