The eahfornia Pine Industryr

By Frederic S. Palmer Manoger, Pine Department, Santa Fe Lumber Co. San Francisco

The stark truth about the present California Pine situation is that all having to do with it have given themselves over to such unreasoning pessimism that it is difficult for the industry to respond to improvement which is everywhere noted.

An analysis of the figures reflecting production as compared with orders and shipments discloses a condition that few seem to realize. It is distinctly favorable as indicating that the leveling process has progressed to a point where supply is certainly not greater than demand..

It is said-and it is true- that mill stocks are large. Study of the nature of these stocks, however, shows that a large part is in the low grades, and suitable for box factory use. Crop prospects amply justify the prediction that such lumber as is now available from which to make boxes and all that will be produced under the present light operating schedules will find ready sale.

As to the Shop and better gtades, it must be realized that stocks in the hands of dealers and industrials are very low. Buying continues on the hand-to-mouth basis, and there is as yet no disposition on the part of buyers to stock up ahead of immediate requirements even though most tempting bargains are offered.

We are led to believe that business has turned the corner, and that commodity prices cannot be expected to show further declines. Professional forecasters seem to be unanimous in that lumber having been one of the first of the basic commodities to suffer, will be one of the first to show improvement.

The low prices of which we hear, are on the items of stock of which there are excessive quantities-the items that are out of balance-prices otherwise are firm, and broken assortments are becoming more and- more general. It is becoming increasingly difficult for individual mills to handle required assortments or large quantities of certain items. This is significant when it is considered that with many of the California producers eight months constitutes the production year, and that we are now at the peak of production for the season.

It is to be hoped in view of actual stock conditiorrs that the pent-up demand for our kinds of lumber will manifest itself gradually. If it is true that a total of 200,000,000,000 (200 billion) feet of lumber is needed to bring Agricultural America up to a modern, efficient production status-and that amount, according to recent surveysis what is needed, it would appear that there really is some hope for the future after all.

Some of the apostles of latter day lumbering preach that things have never been so tiad. -Remember"wiren in 1915 Clears were selling at $30.00, No. 1 Shop at $19.m, No. 2 Shop at $14.00, and good Box at $11.75? Remember in the Spring of 1919 the huge mills stocks, the small stocks in the hands of the buyers, and the lack of interest in any- thing at any price? Rqmember the Fall of 1919 when No. 2 Shop went from $17.50 at the mill, to $90.00 at the mill?

Things have been bad in the California Pine trade before, but we have seen them get better, and "like causes produce like effects."

There are many buyers of California Pine who have never seen any but an auction market. It might be well for them to have their hearts examined in case historv should repeat itself.