Who Talks Recession ? Not Lumber Or Building

By Jack Dionne

Where does all this "recession" talk come from?

Certainly not from the building industry, or the lumber business.

That subject finds its way into countless discussions of business conditions.

Financial papers and finance and economic writers keep harping on it.

Personally, I don't think there has been a recession, that there is one now, or that there is one in sight.

The conditions we hear and read about are simply the result of too much talk; too much smoke for very little fire.

And the building situation lends strong proof to that conclusion.

The most respected authority on building in this country, F. W. Dodge Corporation, issued figures for the first three months of 1954 that point more toward a boom than a bust.

Those figures showed that the first quarter of this year was one of the biggest building periods in all our history.

People don't build when business conditions are poor. In fact, building is one of the first things people postpone when money or credit gets short. The same goes for repairs and remodeling. Those are things that can be put off.

The lumber business, taken as a whole, is good; it is mighty good. Take the three great lumber producing regions, the Douglas Fir, the Western Pine, and the Southern Pine regions, and what do we find?

Production is high. Sales are high. Shipments are high. And prices are generally satisfactory. There are always fluctuations in price ranges in these industries. But there is very little kick being registered by the manufacturers

Wesfern Pine Nqmes Orlo Johnson Log Check Scqler

Portland-Orlo B. Johnson, 46, a veteran of 27 years in Western Pine'forest industries, has been appointed log check scaler for the Western Pine Association, Secretary-Manager S. V. Fullaway Jr. has announced.

The scaling post was created during recent association membership sessions.

Mr. Johnson, a native of North Dakota, spent the past 12 years with J. Neils Lumber Company, Libby, Mont., where he served not only as check scaler but was in charge of pole production and contract logging operations.

In his new position, Mr. Fullaway said, Mr. Johnson will act as advisor to the association's scaling committee and will be available to member mills for advice and assistance concerning scaling matters.

Mr. Johnson's wife and four daughters plan to remain in Libby until the end of the current school year, at which time they are to join him in Portland, headquarters of the Western Pine Association.

of lumber in these areas over current prices.

As far as I can see, and I've been watching lumber marklts for a long time, there is every reason right up to now for being well pleased with the lumber situation. There is no recession in lumber, and none in home building and remodeling. If things keep on this well through the year, it should be a very satisfactory time.

No doubt there are parts of our domestic economy that do not look as bright as the building and lumber situation, generally because of fundamentals.

We read and hear much about weakness in the automobile market. To the man in the road, there seems nothing mysterious about this. They are making tremendous numbers of cars, putting enormous pressure behind their distribution, and asking prices that seem mighty high, as compared with the money supply. So used cars suffer sadly, and there are conditions in the new car market that are not happy ones.

Perhaps weakness in other lines can likewise be explained. But when the lumber market is good, when building levels are high, and when the stock market booms, it is hard to accept recession talk as being sound and factual.

A well-known writer suggests that we talk "a little less" about rbcession, and the danger of depression. I'd like to amend that, and suggest that we talk "a whole lot less" on those subjects.

The best way to dig economic ditches for our feet to follow is to talk too much in that direction.

In the mighty transition that has been taking place from war to peace-time economy, we have done mighty well so far. Mighty well. We have much more reason to brag than we have to complain.

Joins Ricci & Kruse lumber Gompony

J. Ricci, Ricci & Kruse Lumber Co., 912 Shotwell St., San Francisco, has announced that effective May l, 1954, Ross Lee joined the Ricci & Kruse organization. He will cover the San Francisco and East Bay Areas for Ricci & Kruse and will make his headquarters at the Shotwell Street address.

Prior to joining the Ricci & Kruse firm, Ross had been associated with Van Arsdale-Harris Lumber Co., San Francisco, for some 30 years. While with that concern, he serviced the Bay Area and outlying territories.

Ross continues to make his home in Daly City, at 463 Templeton, and his phone there is DE,laware 3-6777.

Joe Tardy, of Los Angeles, who lived for many years in Arizona, reports that the recent meeting of Arizona dealers at Chandler was the best in the history of the AssociatiorS "big registration, good hotel, good location, good speakers and displays."

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