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\(/crtcrn Pinc Shipmcntr Gain ln Fint Qucrtcr

Portland, Ore., March 30--The following report of first (luarter, 1951, production and bhipments of Western Pine Iiegion lumber and lumller products and estimate of proballte second quarter shipments were reteased today by S. V' liullaway, Jr., secretary-manager of the Western Pine Association, Portland. The report covereil Idaho white pine, ponderosa pine, sugar pine and associated woods. The staternent in full:

"As was pointed out in our first quarter l95l forecast, there was much doubt and uncertainty as the new year began. Tightening of construction credit by the Federal government, controls restricting some types of building and, actual or potentiat, shortages of metals essential in residential construction were unfavorable factors in the Iumber dernand outlook. Our prediction at that time rvas that a substantial reductit>n in shipments would occtlr <lurrng the first quarter as corrrpared to the same 1950 period'

"Such a decline in the clemand for our product has n<>t nraterialized. The source of recent lumber demand has been puzzling, There has undoubtedly been some "sc:Ire" or advance buying, as may be indicated by recent increases in retail yard inventories. A rush to complete federally financecl low down-payment housing, while essential metals, other materials and labor were still obtainable, has prollallly been a factor. Generally favorable weather in otlr region, as well as in some large consunring areas, has also contribu?ed.

"It is now apparent that tl-re Western Pine industry will h:rve produced approximately 1,310 million feet and shipped 1,500 million during the first three months of 1951' Ihe latter is 74 million , or 5f per cent above the deliveries in the first cquarter a year ago. Regional stocks as of March 3lst are estimate<l at 1,261 rnillion, down 190 million since Janu:rry 1, 1951.

"Althottgh the number of housing units started so far this year compares favorably with that for the same 1950 period, there zrre now indications of some decline' February starts tvere 8 per cent less than those in January and 3 per cent below the February 1950 level' Some observers anticipate a good volume of residential construction through April but believe it entirely possible that housing starts may decline rapidly thereafter' This, and the apparent lack of defense requirements for lumber at a level which would ofiset the expectecl decline in the housing field' seem to indicate a slowing clon'n of lumber demand as the second cluarter Progresses'

,.Rasedonsuchfactorsanda]lotheravailableinforma_ tion, it now seems probable that during the second quarter of 1951 shipments (consumption) of lumber from the Western line ,egion will approximate 1,800 million' This rvill be 13j/2 per cent uncier that of the record high second quarter oi tqSO. t" making this prediction it is recognized that such influences upon lumber demand as international de:,r"top-"ntr, changing government c-ontrol policies' or the play of politics, cannot be foreseen "