Prorpective Lumber Demand jot 1951

Bv \fl. E. Grilfee

Annuol Meeting, \flestern Pine Associotion, Son Frdncisco, Februdry 93

In normal years the volunre of resiclential c<lnstruction and the demand for our lumber follow pretty closely the trend of general industrial activity. Certainly that won't be true of resi<lential construction this year and, to a lesser extent. it probably won't be true of luntber tlemand either.

It is generally predicted that the physical volumc of industrial production will be about the same in the first half of this year as last but that production in the last six rnonths ma.y be up 3 to 5 percent' The ad.dition of rvomen and older men to the labor force, and sonre lengthening of the work week, should tend to boost production but decreased efticiency and rvithdrawal of yotlnger men for thc armed services will largely offset such an increase. Alsrr the large number of people who will be administering controls will have to come from the potential labor forcc. Some time will be lost figuring horv to use sttbstitute nraterials, living under controls <lr waiting for materials trr be made available. The net result is that incrcases ilt overall output won't come easily.

Three months ago government agencies were llredicting that new housing starts this year would be down at lcast a half from 1950. Some of the speculative buil<lers rvho were trying to get Regulation X modifietl were declarirrg that the slump would be even worse. Recent predictiorrs, however, arc nlore encouraging.

It seems there was an unexpectedly large llacklog of 40C,000 drvelling ttnit loan commitments rvhen llegul:rtiorr X went into effect. This figtrre etluals nearly 30 percent of last year's tremendotts total of 1,395,000 housing starts. It rvill go a long rvay tou'ar<l continuing the "n<lthing tlon'n" financing for all the homes speculative l>uilders itrc ablc to crect between norv and fall.

Another alr.nost certain stitrrultts to resider.rtial crttrstrttction is Senator Maybank's $3 billion defense housing lrill the Administration is promoting. It is practically stlre to be persse<l. Likely, the NPA u'ill give housing projects arpproved urder this proposed lau' the necessarv prioritv assistance to secure hardu'are, plumlling and other sc:Irc(r items.

Still a thild factor which promotes more residential building this yerrr is the mounting inflation n'hich most ollsel'vers expcct to corrtinue. This is a strong incentive for prospective home or"''ners to "btty now" or to "build n(ttr'," in spite of rhe present high prices.

Aside fro:r.. the credit restrictions imposed by Regulatinr.r X. the principal brake on residential construction this year will be the difficulty in securing materials, particularlv those made of metal. The pinch hasn't been felt too much yet but it certainly rvill be by early summer an<l rvill get progressively worse.

Evidently tl.rere has been a lot of hoarding of n.retal products needed for horne construction. Despite the general impression that production of hardu'are and plun.rbing alreerdy l.ras been sharply curtailed, some leading proclttcers in that field are predicting first-<luarter voltttrre larger than last ycar's. If this were not true, it is hard to understand why builders started about 95,000 new non-farm housing tunits in l)ccember. 'l'his figure is an all-time high for the month, is 10,000 units above the Novenrber total and is far above tlre 78,300 units started in l)ecerrrber 1949. lfhe indristriaI consunrption of <lur lumber this year should lle n'ell maintained, whether for civilian or military production. Any increase in use for militarl. construction or for packaging of overseas shipments should offset at lc:Lst a llart of the dccrease in demand for residential const ructi<ln.

With thc governrrrent calling the tune on construction, there is muclr uncertainty as to the total number of hottsing units to be started this year. However, most analysts, including F. W. Dodge Corporation, are predicting that there rvill be about 850,000 non-farm starts. This total w()uld be down 39 percent from the 1950 record. Still it woukl be only 17 percent llehind 1949, which set a record until 1950 came along. In considering this rather encouraging pre<lir:tion it should be renrenrllered that housing construction will be best early in the year and may be tapering ofi rather rapidly by the tim6 air-dryirtg mills begin to get this vear's cut in shipping condition.

On other types ol construction, which don't interest tts as rrruch as residential, the Dodge Corporation estimates that physical volume of construction of manufacturing plrrnts rvill l,.e up 57 percent but nearly all other classes off cnough so the non-resiclential total will be dorvn 3 percent. 'fheir estinrate is that the grand total of all construction u'ill be dorvtr 23 percent from last year.

\lilitary tien.rand for lun.rber isn't clinrbillg as fast as :rnticipaterl. Corps of Engineers purchases rvere abtlut 700 nrilliorr fect in the last half of 1950 and are expectecl trr anlourlt to only 800 million in the first half of this year. If rve estimrtte indirect military demand at trvice the <lirect purchases, the total is only a 5 billion feet a year rate or around 15 percent of the industry's otttput. This figure is by no merlns all nerv lrusiness as there u'its cot.rsiderable nrilitary buf ing in 1950. Some plants no\\' usirrg lumber tri package military supplies and e<luipment \\'ere tlsing ncarly irs much lumber to pack civilian production last year. Thirtv to 35 percent of the 'tvooden box production l1o\\r goes t<:, defense use.

'Ihc den.ran<1 for our industry's products so far tl.ris vear' has held up surprisingly rvell in spite of severe rvinter u'eather ir.r much of the consuming territorr'. Year-to-date frgures on shipments by the Barometer group of mills are a little l-,ehirrd last yeal but not because the mills have much Iumber on hand they can't move at satisfactory prices. L.il<ely the : eduction in shipments is because the industry sturted 1951 rvith stocks 188 million below a year ago.

\Ve have no late figures upon the extent to which this u'iuter's shipments have gone to rebuild retailers' sto'cks, (Contlnued on Page 43) vuKoN 6-3869

GRADE STAMPED DOUGLAS FIR

OLD GRO\(/TH RED\7OOD - CERTIGRADE CEDAR SHINGLES

Exclu siv e souther n colfior nio Represen tstives coos HEAD TIMBER co.i^il.ts AT EMptRE qnd EASTS|DE, oREGoN

AI. PIERCE TUAABER CO.MIt[ AT COOS BAY, OREGdN HARBOR TUMBER CO.NAITT AT COOS BAY, OREGON MOORE TIMBER PRODUCTS, INC.MIttS AT OtsRIEN, OREGON

PIANING A^ttt AT GRANT PAsS, OREGON

T. M. DIMAAICK CO.MITI AT PIERCY, CAIIF.

A. A. DIMAAICK TUIIABER CO.MILI. AT MIRANDA, CALIF.

SAGINAW TIAABER CO.AAItt AT ABERDEEN, WN.

Los Angeles 15

633 Petroleum Building 714 Olympic Blvd.

PRospect 8lZ4

LONGVAIE TRADING CO. -MII.I.AT IONGVATE, CALIF.

Eurekq, Colif.

210 Gross Building 431 t Street

Phone 4807

Arkanscs Moaquitoee

Therc's an old ilory that nevei wearo out about the guy from Arkansas who went to Alagka to try the firhing' ifiit"tt hc got there he waa told by thc guides that he had come at the wrong tceton; the mosquitoes were so bad that nobody could fish.

But the guy from Arkansas laughed at such foolishness; said he'd fiahed in Arkansas when t}e mosguitocs wcre at their worst, and that there were no mosquitoes on earth aa deadly ag thc ones in his home state. So, he said, he was going fishing in spite of the Alaska mosquitoes' One of the g,tia"t offired to bet him twenty dollars he couldn't stand the mosquitoes for an hour, unless entirely covered by nets, and with the nets he couldn't fish' The guy took the bet, and went out into the mountain stream dressed in regulation fishing clothes, and started fishing, while the guide who had made the bet, watched him from the shore' covered up with mosquito nets'

Thougtr- millions of mosquitoes attacked the man from Arkansis, he showed no signs of discomfort, and kept on fishing. When the guide looked at his watch and saw that in five more minutes he would lose his bet, he got mad as an Esquimo could get, and pulling out a long hunting knife, he jabbed it into the Arkansan's back.

But the tough guy from Arkansas never stopP€d fishing. He shottted: "That last one was from Arkansas ! I can tell 'em every time !"

Use Force

The old woman in Scotland insisted she was dying and refused to take any nourishment. The family got in a nurse to try and coax her to take food and medicine' She .refused both. Said the nurse:

"Take some beef broth."

"Na," said the old woman' '"Take some hot milk."

'"Na," said the old woman.

"How about a glass of toddY?"

"Ay.," said the invalid. "Make it strong, and make me take it !"

A Rolling Stone

There's sunshine in the heart of me, My blood sings in the breeze;

The mountains are a Part of me, I'm fellow to the breeze.

Then every star shall sing to me, Its song of libertY;

And every morn shall bring to me, Its mandate to be free.

In every throbbing vein of me, I'll feel the vast earth-call;

O body, heart, and brain of me, Praise Him who made it all ! -Robert Service.

Brotherhood

(Thc following, by George D. Herron, is a pricelea: bit of philosophy, fit to adorn any scrapbook')

We have ialked much of thc brotherhood to come; but brothcrhood has alwayr bcen the fact of our life, long before it became a modern and insipid sentiment'

We have been brothers in slavcry and torment' brothers in ignorance and perdition, brothers in digcase and war and wan-=t, brothers in prostitution and hypocrisy' What happens to one of us, happens sooner or later to all; we have "lr""y" been inescapably involved in a common destiny' The world conetantly tends to the level of the downmost man in it; and that downmoet man is the world's real ruler' hugging it close to his bosom, dragging it down to his death. You do not think so, but it is true, and it ought to be true.

For if there were some way by which some of us could get free apart from others, if there were some way by which Jome of us could have heaven while others had hell, if there were some way by which part of the world could escape someformoftheblightandperilandmiseryofdisinterested labor, then would our world indeed be lost and damned; but since men have never been able to separate themselves from one another's woes and wrongs, since history is fairly stricken with the lesson that we cannot escape brotherhood of some kind, since the whole of life is teaching us that we are hourly choosing between brotherhood in suffering and brotherhood in good, it remains for us to choose the brotherhood of a cooperative world with all its fruits theleof-the fruits of love and liberty'

The Kingdom

Said Friedrich Froebel: "Children are much nearer the inner truth of things than we are, for when their instincts are not perverted by the superfine wisdom of their elders' they givl themselves up to a full, vigorous activity' Theirs is the kingd.om of heaven."

Society

If you wish to appear agreeable in society you must consent io be taugtit many things which you know already' -Lavater.

Chicken crnd Egg

The question which came first, the chicken or the egg' is settlei in Genesis, I:21, which reads: "And God created great whales, and every living c,reature that movetft' which ihe *ate.s brought foith abundantly, after their kind' and every winged fowl after his kind; and God saw that it *as"goodl" Chickens are winged fowls' therefore the chicken came first'

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Telephone PRospect ll08

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