New Yeqr Will Usher in 'Golden 6Os' for Lumber

By Mortimer B. Doyle, Executive Vice-President, National Lumber Manufacturers Association

The year 1960 will usher in a new era for the manufacturers of lumber and other building materials. Population growth, an increase in the rate of new-family formations and a continued rise in living standards will bring about an economic revolution between now and the year 2000.

Economists are referring to the next 10 years as the "Golden 60's," because of the great new business opportunities this period will offer American industries. The lumber industry is taking steps today to gain its fair share of this new wealth. A year ago our most progressive elements joined in sponsoring a million-dollar National Wood Promotion Program. During 1960 this program will be increased in size and scope with a budget of $1.3 million.

In the meantime, plans have been developed for a proposed all-out lO-year program of advertising, merchandising, research and trade promotion to put our industry ahead of its competitors in the race for new markets of the 1960's. This proposed activity, we expect, will be widely discussed within the industry. during coming months. Within the near future, industry principals may decide to take specific action

Nttt/lA Wins Aword of Merif

The National Lumber Manufacturers Assn.. Washington, D.C., Nov. 17 was named winner of an Award of Merit in competition with numerous other large national associations for outstanding activities awards for public service, given annually by the American Society of Association Executives. The announcement was made at Boca Raton, Fla., during the Society's 40th annual international meeting, November 15-22.

As some 500 other key association executives looked on, Mortimer B. Doyle, executive vice-president of NLMA, was presented a handsome, personalized plaque by Paul A. Slone, chairman of the ASAE Awards committee. NLMA was named a winner following a comprehensive screening of candidates by an awaros Jury.

to present the program to the industry for consideration.

In the light of these significant developments, 1960 should see the lumber industry holding its own-or perhaps gain- ing slightly-in the building, furniture and related fields.

A recent industry-wide survey conducted by our association indicates that lumber production and gross sales this year may be slightly higher than in 1959.

Much will depend on home construction. IJnless there is an easing of the currently tight mortgage money market, home cbnstruction this year could fall below last year's relatively high level. This, of course, would have somewhat of an adverse effect on lumber output.

However, if the rate of home building remains fairly stable, if other construction markets and industrial use of wood continue strong:, the lumber industry can expect 1960 to be another good year.

Lumbermen will continue to be faced with strong competition from producers of competitive materials, rising production costs and other problems. But. because of our industry's inherent strength and the fact that lumbermen are showing more unity today than ever before, there is every reason to be optimistic about the year ahead.

Leading Builders Believe 'Tight Money' Holds the Key to 1960 Housing

"The housing market, in 1960, will be characterized by tight money which will produce, in turn, a 10 to l2/o drop in the year's volume of dwelling units to be built. Sales housing will decline more than rentals."

This was the consensus of leaders in the housing field who met Dec. 7 at a conference on "Builders' Intentions l9ffi," at the National Housing Center in Washington, D. C.

These builders, 25 in all, were specially selected as representative of the homebuilding market in their respective areas. Their expectations and intentions were polled to obtain a practical check on theoretical forecasts of costs, sizes of homes, supply of mortgage money, community facilities, rental units required and other maior concerns in the field of residential tonstruction.

W. Evans Buchanan of Washington, D. C., chairman of the conference, reported that approximately 75/o of the builders who participated expect starts, under Federally insured financing, to be down much more drastically than will be conventionally financed housing.

"Over half of the conferees expect rental housing starts for next year to be up," Mr. Buchanan said. "The consensus is that sales housing will bear the brunt of the anticipated decline in starts."

Buchanan added, "Sales housing will suffer most at the low price and high price ends of the market. Mediumpriced housing starts are expected to be down, but not as severely." Builders were nearly unanimous in their expectations that the tight supply of mortgage money will continue to characterize the industry's financing picture in 1960.

Virtually every cost connected with home building is expected to be higher in the coming year. Labor, materials and land are on the rise throughout the country. Increases in the expenses of development, financing and selling of

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