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has by itself created a need for roughly 180,000 additional dwellings."

While the formation of households will remain at a high level between now and 1970. the council said it did not expect the rate to match the peak 1951-55 period.

The report assumed, however, that 2.93 persons will continue to comprise a household, an assumption that would add 800,000 new households to the metropolitan area bv ].974.

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In estimating the region's future housing needs, the council took into account, in addition to a stabilization of the 2.93-persons-to-household ratio, replacement needs and the vacancy rate as applied to dwelling units.

The report ttoted that while the obsolescence rate for Los Angeles,-because it is a relatively young city, is considerabli below the national average, many housing units must nevertheless be discarded to make way for mushrooming industries.

Replacement needs then, the council said, were assumed to total 500O a year through 196O, 6000 a year between 1961-65 and 7000 a year between 1966-70.

Several factors, the report said, will contribute to an increase in over-all vacancy rates by l970-changing tastes, decentralization, declines in certain residential areas and, largely, an inclination for construction to move ahead of the market. Thus, to project its figures, the council assumed that the vacancy rate will increase from the existing 2/o to roughly 4/o in lWO.

"On this basis it would appear that if present construction rates are maintained, the housing industry will shortly find itself in a very vulnerable position," the report warned. "By 1960 there could be a serious oversupply of new dwellings. Also, should present construction rates continue, vacancy rates would probably rise sharply in the near future, and rental properties, both old and new, would