A Review and Outloolc

Bv H. R. Northup, Executive Vice President National Retail Lumber Dealers Association

Retail lumber and building materials dealers had a considerably better year in 1952 than was generally predicted. Most dealer's sales were somewhat higher than or just as good as in 1951, although some declines were reported. Net profits were somewhat lower on the average, but still were fairly satisfactory on the whole.

The widely predicted shortages of metals failed to materialize except in isolated cases. Builders did an excellent job of stretching to the limit the available supplies of steel, copper, and aluminum and, of utilizing lumber and other materials in their place.

It became apparent, as 1952 progressed, that inventories in the hands of manufacturers, wholesalers, retail dealers, and builders at the time CMP started were considerably.greater than anyone had believed

Construction controls held down the volume of commercial and recreational building, and housing starts were cut back some 20 per cent instead of the 30 per cent or more that had been predicted, but farm co4struction and repair and modernization work showed an increase.

Wage and price controls harrassed the industry, and the latter caused dealers a good deal of unnecessary clerical expense and worry, but the industry carried on fairly smoothly in spite of those nuisances.

It looks as though 1953 will be another good year for light construction.. Housing starts may well approximate 1952 in number. An increasid amount of commercial building is anticipated as controls are removed or further relaxed on the construction of new stores, office buildings, and other business structures.

Except for the tighter limitation on public housing, continuation of the Defense Production Act, and partial removat of rent controls, there was relatively little legislative activity affecting construction in 1952. It is too early to say what Congress will do in 1953, although they will be urged to completely eliminate all types of economic controls.

The planners in Washington,'who are reluctant to give up any form of control over industry, have been making frantic efforts to sell Congress and the public on maintaining a system of standby controls after defense production passes its peak. Until the make-up of the new Congres.s can be analyzed, it is impossible to tell whether they will have their way.

In spite of the growing feeling that it is entirely inconsistent for the construction industry to call for less government interferences with business on the one hand, and to voice continued requests for preferential housing legislation on the 6ther, it seems safe to predict that, if the housing market should start to slip badly, the federal government will act to ease housing credit terms still further.

There will, however, be a determined effort to bring the public housing program to an end, in one way or another. There is good reason to believe that subsidized housing has fewef active supporters than at any time in the last 15 years.

Congress probably will be under pressure to compel FHA and VA to adopt a more realistic policy on interest rates, unless mortgage lenders show a-gre"jter ihterest in making housing loans at existing rates. - There. is no shortage of mortgage money, but many lending instiiutions have found other avenues of investment more attractive. To their credit, it can be that they have, for the most part, followed a policy of allocating a certain minimum frcentage of their available funds to low interest housing loans.. To do otherwise would be to invite direct government lending.

. Congress is not likely to take any action on the proposal to requir,e builders to give home buyers a written warranty. In view of the extreme difficulty: of defining responsibility for alleged defects in homes, it is hard to see how any compulsory guarantee could result in anything but still more confusion and ill-fqeling.

One of the major trends in the retail lumber and building materials industry this.year has been a greatly increased interest in better merchandising and management, a developmen! for which the industry's trade publications deserve a good' deal of credit.

The 30-day courses for dealer gmiiloyepq being conducted against this schoof year by 12 colleges and universities, have awakened a good many dealers to the fact that any dealer can profit by sharing his experience and trading in{ormation with other dealers. ": r.

There' is widespread interest in such subjects as firnnciat management, sales training, pricing methods, ind personnel manasement.