The Lumber Outlook for 1953

By John \(. Veach, Chairman of the Board National Lumber Manufacturers Association

Consumers can expect greater t'alue and better service for their dollars spent on lumber in the vear ahead. These better buys u'ill ,come about as the result of more elficient production methods, greater rrtilization of u-aste materials, irnprovecl cutting practices and better merchandising programs,

Consumers also can anticipate ample supplies of lumber Ior all civilian and defense re<luirements next vear. Reforestation programs and the present rate of tree grou'th promise to provide an adequate supplv of tirr.rber for the nation's present and foreseeable needs.

Indications are that overall demand for lumber n'ill be relatively firm in 1953. The g'o\-ernment. builders, industrial users and the general public are expectcrl to ltrrv about the same amotlnt of lunrlter that thet' prrrchased in the last 12 months.

Lumber consumption during 1952 totaled arr estimated 38.9 billion board feet-one per cent above 19.i1. Ii all this lvood had been diverted into home construction. altproximately 4,862,5m average-size franre houses could have been built.

The outlook is for 1953 prodrrction approximatelv equal to this year's output, estimated at 36.7 l>illon boarrl feet.

Lumber companies u'ill find tl-reir operating c,rsts up slightly next 1'ear because of u'age increases and price boosts rvhich the government allou'ed this Fall for metal products such as sau's, trucks and heavv ecluipmcnt. Hou'errer, improved production mcthods and adlances in l-ood techr.rologv u'ill cnable the industr-v to absorb thcse higher costs.

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For the 1'ear-to-date, shipments r-if reporting identical mills u'ere 3.6 per cent abor-e production; orclers n'erc 1.6 per cent above production.

Comparecl to the average corresponding u'eek in 19351939, production of reporting mills u'as 61.5 per cent above; shipments rvere 64.9 per cent above ; neu' orders u'ere 38.7 per cent above. Compared to the corresponding s'eek in 1951, production of reporting mills u'as l.ll per cent belol' shipments n'ere 4.2 per cent abor-e ; and neu' orclcrs s'ere 3.4 per cent above. * * :i

The \\Iestern Pir.re Assriciation for the t-eek encled December 13, 96 mills reporting. gar-e orders as 57.783.000 feet, shipments 51,684,000 feet. and production 57.5'18.000 feet. Orders on hand at the end of the u'eek totaled 152.317,000feet. * * *

The Southern Pine Association for the u-eek ended Decemlrer 6, 107 units (132 mills) reporting. gar-e orders as 15,242,UJ} feet. shipments 18.573,000 feet, and productiorr 19,728,000 feet. Orders on hand at the end of the u'eek totaled 55.476,000 feet.

National defense devekrpments and the pace of neu' construction n'ill har-e the greatest influence on lunrber dernand in the 1'ear ahead.

Lumber derland is certain to be bolstered during the c()nstnlcti()lt seas()n ltv the prospect of increased building actir-itv in most fields. The governnrent's prediction that slightlv more than one million homes s'ill be started next -vear is anclther healthv sign.

The impending relaxation of controls on commercial and amusenlent building should increase the markets for u'ood in this t-r-pe of constnlcti()n. -\nother factor likelv to boost u'ood consunrption in this 6eld is the trend more one-stort' buildings using engineered s'ood fabricated and laminated trusscs. This trend has been particularl-v marked in the construction of arnusement facilities. churches. shopping centers and public schools.

The denrand for lurnber in the defense pr()gram also is expected to hold rrp u'ell next lear and probablv u'ill improve. This prosllect is linkerl to indications of an increase in militar_v expen<litures for net' construction.

-\ sustaining influence on ltrmber demand s'ill be the l)r()gress made in encouraging the alternate use of lumber and u'ood products for steel and other materials. Equalllimportant is the development of nes- s'ood products and techniques u'hich u'ill help strengthen lunrber's position as the nation's nlost versatile building material.

Lumlrernren have reason t<-r r-ieu' the vear ahead u'ith at least a cauti()us optirnism. ^\nd the public can depend on lunrbcr to con1it.r,," its outstan<ling job of helping to build a strong. progressive nation.

The \\-est Coast Lunrbernren's -\ssociation for the rveek ended I)ecember (r.201 nrills rel)orting. gave orders as lll.329.CX)0 feet. shipnrents I13,{)l+.000 feet. and production 125,998.000 feet. Unlilled orders at the end oi the u'eek totaled -152.090.000 feet.

For the u'eek ended l)ecember 13. these same mills relrrrrted orders as 121 .121.000 feet. shipments lll 922.WO feet. and prorluction 135.1t96.000 ieet. Unfilled orders at the end of the u'eek totaled {61.589.000 feet.

Don White Tcrlks Hcrrdwoods

Don \\'hite. r'ice president :rnd general nlanager of White Brothers. pioneer San I'-rancisco hardrvood firm, addressed the ]Ierritt School of Business in Oakland recentlv on the subject of hardu'oods. He found a most interested audience, and for about tn'o hours he spoke practicallv and informati'r'elr- on his fa'r-orite subject. hardt'ood lumber. His ad<lress \\'as a l)art of the e<lucational program of Hoo-Hoo Club No. 39. It u'as A vcr_\' interesting talk in u'hich he disctrssed the specifving. purchasing. handling. and storage of hardn'ood lurnber bv retailers.

\(HOLESALE o JOBBING

srNce 1898

BROAD\|YAY AT THE ESTUARY ALAMEDA, CALIFORNIA

PHONE LAKEHURST 3.5550 nnouncing the most complete stock o[ quality TIN4BERS in Northern Califiornia t Douglas Fir in sizes to 24" x 24" t

Redwood in sizes to 12" x 12" - lengths to 24' t Redwood inventories of two million feet t

Rcmanufacturing facilities for iesawing up to 34" x94" t

Planer capacity for surlacing up to 24" x24" lf we can't find lt we'll make it.

We erijoy doing business with particular lumbermen.

HAPPY NE\v YEAR

rt is custom ary attti" l""lorr*of th. year, to look backward, or forward, or both, and either review the events of the past year, or predict those of the twelve months lying just ahead-or both. * *

How would it be to take a new road for this particular occasion, and do neither of the things mentioned, but rather to ta-lk over and review people, events, or things that have exasperated us most in the last twelve months? Would that be good manners, do you think?

What things or events or folks hdve caused us to stew the most, fuss the most, or cuss the niost, thus helping to spoil our otherwise calm and placid dispositions and tempers? Come to think of it, the past year certainly offers a profusion of such subjects from which to choose. Bloodboiling subjects overfow lna*Ooa*

But perhaps we had better think twice before we start throwing verbal rocks at t}ose things that have transpired which inevitably send our blood pressure rushing toward the skies, thus endangering health and happiness and arterial security; especially on New Yeay's. Perhaps it would be wiser to simply discuss those more moderate pests which in such profusion have roused our resentments during the PastYear' * * *

It really isn't safe for writers with elderly arteries to throw themselves. around on a lot of the subjects that abound these days in this mad world; subjects that bring a writer to the hydrophobia level with very little effort. To talk about Vishinsky, or Korea, or the Fair Dea-I, or the Missouri Gang, or our American Communists, or the confusion and corruption of recent years in Washingtonthese and a whole slough of other pertinent subjects can hardly be discussed calmly, or with such language as properly belongs in this Famous *Fireside Journal.

It is meet and just-and we DO spell this sort of meet with two e's instead of ea-that we permit wisdom to be the better part of valor and let dl such subjects alone and untouched on this occasion, and deal rather with the smaller harassments of life in these here United States. There are plenty of those. *** ft seems to us that of all tbe pests and aggravations that a just and generally kindly providence has sirffercd to be imposed on a tolerant and long-sufrering pcople during the year 1952, this continudly growing tidc of unspcakable and insufferabl'e caterwauls that burst forth on frcquent occasions, from unknown angles and without benefit of clergy, wins all the condemnation prizes. Hellz-bellz ! Aren't most of them awful, unforgivable?

Perhaps not even our closest friend could guess in twenty tries what we consider to be our pet peeve-the particular thing that has harassed us mostiuring the past year.

So we shall at this time tte sad tale unfold. It is SINGING COMMERCIALS. Yep, that's what we said; singins commercials. (Understand we are talking of the venial sins, the secondary laralmelts, not the big stinkers.)

Let us state that so far we arc still radio folks, ourselves, and in spite of the singing commercials. But how much longer we can continue to permit our eardruns to be lacerated and our love of music assaulttd by ttese nameless and shocking travesties on music and publicity, is bard to say. Certain it is that our patience is being stretched to the utmost, while our tempers, once temlrcrate, rapidly ap proach the explosiot noTa. * *

We have been forced to change our phpical arrangements, and to sit always close enough to the radio to pernft our arm to fly forth "like an adder darting from its coil" (as Sir Walter Scott said) when the torhrre starts, and our thumb and forefinger have becn trained to catch and twist the ra-dio knob in the direction markcd "off" with remarkable rapidity. SeU-defense has taught us dexterity. Self-preservation, the 6rst law of nature, has helped us to protectourselves. _*

* +

But such methods are like trcating a great pain with morphine. We can stop the pa'in if we turn off tlc knob of the radio as the so-called music starts. But wbat we need is something to get to tte root of thc cvil; to stop these commercial screechings and howlings at the sourccAs a great Roman once said: "\lf'e pausc for a reply." How shall we protect ourselves against singing commercials, other than by rapidly turning them ofr? That's what we need a lot more than we l."l "*t* five cent cigar-

We said previously that we are still radio folks. Which means that we are not members of the countlcss Tnilliql3 who have climbed on the television train. Therefore'wc think the radio people should give special car to our squawk against these singing commercials, because thlre are not so many of us radio fans left. Danny Thomas, outstanding nightclub and movie entertaincr, is quoted as saying