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Growing Lumber Forecast

Continued strength in home construction and repair and remodeling is expected to vault U.S. lumber demand to record levels in 2003, according to the Western Wood Products Association's 2003 lumber forecast.

U.S. lumber consumption is expected to reach an all-time high of 54.7 billion bd. ft. in 2003, eclipsing 1999's record 54.3 billion bd. ft.

Demand in 2002 is also expected ro reach the 54.3 billion bd. ft.

Spurred by low interest rates and strong refinancing activity, repair and remodeling will account for most of the demand increases. Lumber usage in repair and remodeling is expected to climb 3Vo to 17 .3 billion bd. ft.

Non-residential construction will rise 2.67o to 7.2 billion ft.

Housing starts, the largest lumber use segment, are predicted to dip slightly to 1.6 million units in 2003 from 1.65 million unirs in 2002. New home construction will consume 21.2 billion bd. ft. of lumber next year.

"Low interest rates have helped the U.S. housing and remodeling markets to stay healthy and expand demand for lumber products," said WWPA's Michael O'Halloran. "That's good news for Western sawmills."

Despite the growing lumber demand, overall U.S. lumber production is expected to remain stable at 35 billion bd. ft. Western production will be down less than lvo in 2OO3 to 16.58 billion bd. ft., and Southern production will be down slightly at 16.47 billion bd. ft.

Lumber imports should rise more than 500 million ft. in 2003. Canadian shipments should grow 1.67o to 18.7 billion ft. Non-Canadian imports will be up l5.3%o to 2 billion bd. ft., led by European lumber volumes that for the first time will top 1 billion bd. ft.