will rhe good rimes last? long NEERED WOOD

By David L. Rogoway President APA-The Engineered Wood Association

It's difficult to imagine how domestic economic conditions could be much better for the engineered wood products industry in 2000 than they were in 1999. Low interest rates and strong housing demand led this year to better-than-expected production marks for all categories of engineered products-and in some cases record highs. By most measures, however, 2000 should prove to be almost as good for the engineered wood products industry as the year just completed.

Our latest forecast assumes that U.S. Gross Domestic Product will slow as interest rates nudge higher, thereby reducing housing starts from 1.6 million this year to 1.54 million in 2000. Those declines, however, will be partially offset by gains in export markets as the dollar weakens and Asian economies recover, and by solid demand in the industry's other major m2lksfs-lsrnodeling, nonresidential construction, and industrial applications.

In quantitative terms, structural wood panel production is expected to reach 40.35 billion sq. ft. in 2000, off less than 7Va from the projected record 40.6 billion ft. produced in 1999. Glulam timber production should total 330 million bd. ft., about the same as in 1999. And production of both wood I-joists and laminated veneer lumber is expected to rise 13Vo to more than I billion linear ft. and 63 million cu. ft., respectively.

How long can the good times last? Over our full threeyear forecast period, the outlook is for structural wood panel production to reach record highs again in 2001 and 2002, for glulam production to climb nearly l%o, and for wood l-joist and laminated veneer lumber production to increase by 427o and27Vo.

I-joists now command about 40Vo of the residential raised wood floor market, and that share is expected to exceed 6OVo by 2002. Each linear ft. of I-joist consumes about 1 sq. ft. of panel product for web stock, mostly OSB.

The forecast figures are testimony to the manufacturing research and development investments of the wood products industry in the face of a rapidly changing wood fiber resource supply. With substantially less public forest timber available for wood products manufacturing, producers have had to improve existing methods and to invent new ways to make more with less, and with alternative wood fiber resources. That trend will continue.

The forecast also assumes successful industry response to the twin threats of competing industries seeking greater share of traditional wood markets, and of preservationist special interests, whose tactics now include attempts to infl uence marketplace decisions.

In response to those challenges, the wood products industry and allied groups in both the U.S. and Canada are about to launch a multi-million dollar, multi-year public information campaign designed to improve public perception of wood and wood products. Called the Pro-Wood Initiative, the campaign will seek to do for wood what other industries have done for steel, concrete and plastic.

Another important challenge is the shortage of qualified construction workers, which threatens to affect workmanship quality and therefore the frequency of product performance complaints, claims and callbacks-an issue of concern to manufacturers, dealers and builders alike. In light of that concern, APA is assigning even higher priority to its long-standing user, specifier and dealer training and education programs.