ED[TORIAL

D.l.Yl business forecasting

Inside this issue some of the top people in our field offer their expert forecast for 1994 and beyond. On this page, we invite everyone to doit-yourself: try your own hand at breaching the veil that hides the future from us.

An obvious starting point is to take today's world and extrapolate it into the future. While helpful, this inevitably neglects the interference of outside forces that can radically change the business environment. So the good forecaster needs !o consider what likely critical future issues affect him or her and the company and then try to guess what developments could affect the forecast.

Technology plays a big role here. Just as the fax has had a major effect upon business practices, so too will interactive technology, we suspecL As it quickens and expands communication at work it's likely to change the way America lives at home. And that means what people buy with their disposable income and how they spend their time could drastically change. All this implies that strong sellers in today's inventory may well fall from favor.

In forecasting the next quarter or the next year, specific goals are achievable. Beyond that, the forecaster needs to challenge conventional thinking, think the unthinkable, be alert to cultural changes in society that, like interactive technology, can turn today's situation upside down. Sometimes the generalist does better in long range forecasting because of the wide scope of knowledge and interest brought to the puzzle. Today's inconsequential factor can quickly become tomorrow's major mountain. The reverse is true and often the change from one to tle other is brief. Though its effects can linger.

Ask yourself, if I were the customer, is there any possible reason, no matter how far-fetched, why I might in five years change my present pattem of buying? If not, why not? Here"s where you need to prod your imagination, intuition, memory and that part of your brain tlat causes you to hear things that go bump in the night.

Many make forecasting an ongoing process, continuously monitoring early waming signs. It's one habit that can put money in your pocket.

Partieleboard Knotty

Crezon