'91 same as tgO

By Eric Yeadon President American Wood Preservers Bureau

A BROAD cross section of AWPB

Fl treating plants and preservative manufacturers were polled in October regarding the prospects for treated wood in 1991. A certain pessimism surrounds the industry and the conclusion is that 1991 will be a repeat of 1990 with the possibility of some weakening in the market, particularly in the first quarter.

The volume of CCA and ACZA treated lumber inspected under the AWPB LP-2 and LP-22 quality con- trol procedures will show an increase in the 1990 calendar year ofapproximately 20/o over the volume reported in 1989. This volume is stilla sisnificant 740/o below the record vollmes of 1988.

In 1990, solid increases were recorded through the first eight months, but a significant reduction of treater volumes in September and a weak October are expected to show

Treaters expect morc of the satne, some market weakening possible... less winter buying as retailers rely on quick delivery. southurestandwestcoast optimistic. .3 billion b.f. anticF pated.

a poor fourth quarter performance.

Uncertainties with the weak economy, interest rates and low housing starts, all compounded by the Middle East problems, make forecasting extremely difficult for treated wood production.

There is optimism in the Southwest with increase in the economic activity from the effect of oil pricing. The Midwest expects modest increases following a fairly good 1990 and the West Coast is expected to maintain current levels. The East Coast remains uncertain with hope that it must improve from a difl'icult I 990.

Treated wood has often shown strength in the R&R markets, particularly in a year of reduced housing starts.

Dealers appear to have gotten used to prompt service from the treating plants and carrying smaller treated inventory, and some of the traditional winter buying programs are significantly reduced.

Lumber inspection in the AWPB LP-2 and LP-22 programs should remain level at approximately the three billion board foot measure.