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Tt gLves rrs grunt, p[nwswre tD wLslv Vou tIw bvst f ot thE, ?wLid,wy sewsor, a,n{' ttw tLew Vza'r. l{'erv wt LwrwLnwteil, TLrwber ws beLtvve Ln' wLL t'hv oLd,-fwshtoweil, vwLuvs howvstg, fr,ne svrvLce, r esponsLv etwss, cowsi.d,e'r a.tinn, wnd' f wLr rwss

"l,t's w joV tD worh, wnil, d,Lscovvr thwt ws a[.[, hnve w chwwce to grow. Psrhwps we a.pprvci'wte thv

"gooil, Ltfv" trlorv wnd, twore, os we rewd' the flewspwpvrs, Ai wfrV rwte, Lt is gru.wt to ltvv Lw

ArwerLca., vnjog freeil,otrl', wn'il, kwow tfuwt our Jwrwitws cLre hwvLng tfw br.ggvst opportunLtLss Ln tIw wor[d,.

Tfrc t-a.rwLnnfun, TLtwber tpn'tw wwttts to shwrs tfwsv otd,-fwshinne,il, va[,ues wLth Vou wn'd' tn wLsh Vou gooil, hva,Lthv a.wil' prospvrLty |ot thv Nvw l)vwr

1991.

BEsr w',anF-E !

F:< = = O lJa IIJ

r N OL R reselre h lclr this llusiness liorecast I Istu,-'. wc hcrrrtl lol: ol'l.es\rntistic tirlk, Too nruch. we think. f or arrlonc's goocl. We've said it befbre on this page. br.rt it bcars repeating: if cvervone talks constanll) about how bad business is. yoll can bc sure it rvill go fiont bad to worsc. Negative talk bccontcs a scll-fulfilling prophccl.

Sure. brg problcnts crist, Thc Gull'crisis, the f'ederal deflcit. sai. ings & loan uncl banking problems. timber supplv ancl enr ironntental difficulties. crcdit ancl collection problents and badl1, shaken consllnrer conficlcnce. \ot to mcntion housing bcing in thc tank. All in all. a scary prospecl.

Ilut thcse problcnrs won't lust lbrever. Problenrs nevcr do. Industry' \'ctcrans note that "if it isn't one thing. it's llrolhcr." Observers point out that it's becn about cieht veurs sincc our last downturn. a far lorrger periocl ol'g<tod lintes than this industry has cnjoled firr marrl lears. Their feeling is that pcople shoulcl have prcpared rn good times for the incvitable o'clical decline. (iood adlicc. but easier said than done. llow long will our indr.rstrl,'s parr of the national rcccssion last'l \\'c heard everything l'ront first quartcr l99l to two t'ears. Wc found no consensus. but the largest group sees a mid1991 turnaround.

Good tintcs w'ill rcturn. \\'hat wc need to do now is soldicr thror,rgh the business battles for howevcr long it is Lrntil thc oclical upturn.

Neither krreejerk pcssintisnt nor mindless Pollyanu happv talk is the ansuer. IIard work. efTective manirgenrcnt acllptecl to the changed conditions ol' the 1990s lnd a good dose of rcalistic conllclcncc is a goocl prescription for survilrns harcl tintcs.