NEWS tsR[EFS

More Predictions

The American Plywood Assn. Dealer Advisory Council expects business to be up 5%-15% in 1976, APA sees 1.5 million housing starts next year, most starts forecasts are now running between 1.3-1.6 million units in '76.

William Smolkin, an independent ecoromist and one of the few who correctly forecast the '75 picture, earlier predicted 1.35 for the coming year but now thinks thismay be too hish ..Nt'l Assn. of Home Builders guesstimate is 1,454,000; about 26% above this year. .

Irritial enthusiasm over October's start rate (latest figs.) of almost 1.5 million has been tempered by a look at the rate for bldg. permits: barely enough to keep pace with Sept.'s projected annual rate of I million.

Apartment construction in'7 6 is expected to drop nationally to 250,000, lowest level since the '50s, according to Advance Mortgage Corp., which keeps close track of the industry. .the prime lending rate (the banks' lowest rate for their best customers) is not generally expected to go below the present 7%. .

Home mortgage rates are expected to decline in ''76 to the 8.4Vo-8.6% range says Argus Research Corp. .Federal National Mortgage Assn. (Fannie Mae) economist Harry Schwartz says despite $$ inflow to the s&ls that do the lending for home buying, caution by lenders, developers and buyers will inhibit new home sales.

"It would not surprise us to see softwood lumber and plywood next year rise to all-time highs, " forecasts one of the West's leading lumber/plywood econo- mists. .a 3lVo decrease in softwood exports to Europe was logged this year, but a good jump is expected for 1976.

Half of the top 10 metro areas leading the nation in new dwelling units in the 3rd quarter were in the West: L.A./Long Beach, Ca., no. 2; Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden Grove, Ca. no. 4; Seattle-Everett, Wa., no. 8; San Diego, Ca., no. 9; and San Francisco, no. 10. .

Capital Lumber Co., Phoenix, is building a new Albuquerque distribution center for redwood & cedar products to cover N.M., southern Co. & W. Tx.: set to open in Spring '7 6 initial development of the 8 acres is 3.8 acres paved, with 32,000 sq. ft. covered storage, according to Eugene Giesie. .new mgr. will be Fran Arnould. .

Redwood Empire, a Belmont, Ca., wholesaler, has selected a 3 aere San Jose, Ca., site for a new distribution center; ground breaking is expected shortly, with operations beginning next mo., shipments due to start about Mar. .Willamina Lumber. Portland, plans to buy Riverside Lumber's Sheridan, Or., plant; no price revealed for it or for the recent sale to Koppers Co. of Honolulu Wood Treating Co. of Honolulu, Hawaii. .

John Kelly, Trend Lumber Co., Arcata, Ca., has been elected the new chairman of the American Lumber Standards Committee, replacing Earl McGowin, who served in that post for 14 years; we'll have a complete story in next month's issue. .Larry Knudsen is the new pres., Lumbermen's of Washington' Curt Kehoe moves up to senior v.p., Dick Rust to v.p. and head man Bob Slettedahl becomes chairman of the b-oard and chief exec. officer. .

Consumer Building Marts, Inc. Portland, a six store d-i-y chain which also has stores in Seattle and Denver, is being acquired by Erb Lumber Co., Birmingham, Mi.; no figs. disclosed on the transaction. .Wickiup Forest Products is a new Bend, Or., wholesale firm, founder is Larry Garoutte. .

Ernst Home Centers plans to open new units in Spring '76 in Granger and Bountiful, Ut. . Timbef,ane Lumber Co. has moved to new quarters at 310 Garfield St., Eugene, Or. .theAPA glued lloor system .previously blocked by code in Denver, has been ok'd for use.

Simpsm Timber Co., Louisiana' Pacific and Arcata National have come under fire again for logging practices in connection with the Redwood National Park; a new federal report contradicts earlier findings that the companies were complying with applicable regulations.

Louisiana-Pacific and FMC Corp. are discussing the possibility of L-P buying FMC's 5AVa interest in their Ketchikan Pulp operation in Alaska. ?acific Lumber Co. has applied for listing to the New York Stock Exchange, its stock currently traded o-T{. .

Oceanside Lumber Co., in the Ca. coastal town of the same name, is now in its 94th year; Norton Hathaway is the current owner. .Foxworth-Galbraith B uilding Mat erials Cen te rs, Dallaq which also has stores in N.M. and Az., is celebrating its 75th birthday. .

Simpson Timber Co. is celebrating its 85th year in business in '75; Thomson-Diggs Co., the Sacramento, Ca., wholesale distributors of hardwares and housewares was incorporated 75 years ago, but was founded 'way back in1880....