Red Cedar ShingleslS hakes

By Marshall Ritchie Red Cedar Shingle & Handsplit Shake Bureau

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Flit is becoming increasingly difficult to gaze into that "economic crystal ball" at each year's end and arrive at solid market forecasts for the comins year, we at the Red Cedar Shingle & Handsplit Shake Bureau look with optimism toward 1976.

The Bureau's optimism is prompted by a pronounced surge of business since August, contrary to many other segments of the building industry as well as current economic indicators, which seem to point toward an improved construction industry.

Shingle and shake production has constantly improved throughout 1975 culminating in the year-end surge. We attribute the strong improvement to vastly increased re-roof and remodeling markets as well as a healthy share of the custom home market which has been active.

Another important economic factor which should also assist improvement of the shelter industry next year is the national election. Political activity may add to the number of homes being constructed next year, as well as a possible drop in mortgage interest rates.

What this all means for the red cedar shingle and shake produiers, is an overall improvement in the resi dential housing market, a long-time foundation of the industry.

In addition to expected improvement of the Bureau's new home market, the trend toward remodeling, home improvements and re-roofing with red cedar shingles and handsplit shakes, will continue to grow as it has since late 1973. Increased homeowners' interest inproducts of superior insulative quality and low maintenance has increasingly pointed them in the direction of cedar shingles and shakes. In fact, requests to us for general literature, application instructions, and doit-yourself re-roofing techniques have increas' ed greatly during the past year.

In addition to the expected new home, re-roofing and remodeling activity for 1976, many other stringle and shake markets, including multi-family unitg light commercial, vacation homes, interiors and mobile/modular homes are expected to steadily improve throughout the year as the general building industry recovers.

Story at a Glance Moderate optimism

medium priced housing to increase dramatically strong custom home market reroofing and remodeling gains to continue strong more low cost housing activity.

In California, one of the industry's major markets, the forecast for 1976is exceptionally optimistic. During the 1974 slump, heavy emphasis was put on over roofing and re-roofing which helped tide the cedar roofing industry over what threatened to be an uncomfortably tight situation. In 1975 the same trend continued. Coupled with optimism in the single family housing area lhe California market should be one of the industry's assets throughout next year.

In summary, we at the Bureau feel moderately optimistic about market conditions during 1976.

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(continued from page a ) forecast by another industry trade association predicts 1.5 for 1976. Our 1976 crystal ball indicates 1.35 million conventionals with a slightly stronger comeback in mobile and factory builts foratotalofabout 1.65 units. In short, a little better than this year, but nothing to write home to mother about. Market levels for the first half of 1976 are not likely to be more than moderately volatile in commodities. If pressures move the market down, there will certainly be added curtailment of production which will firm it back up. At the very best, however, there will be frequent shortages of other key items which could lead to severe inventory problems at all levels of the industry.

I guess one could say that we aren't too happy with our forecast for next year, but we hope we are right!

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