A wide screen look at '76

By Ralph Lamon Lamon Lumber Co. San Francisco. Ca.

I T will be ! the intent of these comments to explore broader problems, deeper dangers, than the building cycle, the price of money and the cost of two by fours.

Economists whose business it is to instruct us on likely directions for the future have long realized that pessimism is a prudent game plan. Errors can more easily be shrugged off and tolerated. Thus on the dark-side:

197 6 will surely witness further expansion of government involvement in our lives. Since it is an election year and most of us don't really care about expanding intrusion we will have brave talk not only from the President but on the part of the Democrats to the contrary. You can make book on more reports, more controls, more guidance and more bureaucracy.

We can count with certainty on a budget deficit of staggering proportions. We can also be quite certain of more inflation in ranges considered, just short years ago, disasterous. What ever sums and percentages seem likely now, chances are very good that these will ultimately prove to be understated.

The unavoidable consequence is a further weakening of the free enterprise system.

The bastardization of our currency and the quiet, vicious syphoning off of our stored values penalizes our savers and jeopardizes the economic security of a significant segment of our society-the senior citizen. While this process has been evolving for a generation or more its pace will quicken in 197 6.

Perhapsit should be noted here that there are three significant political figures (Governors Reagan, Brown & Wallace) who give us hope that these pessimistic thoughts are off target. They not only take positions strongly opposed to this tide but seem to mean what they say.

Story at a Glance

A broad look at the worldwide political and economic factors that affect the ebb and flow of events that eventually and, inevitably, act upon our Western industry.

Since this is a time for guessing, my guess has nothing to do with my druthers. It won't happen in 1976.

The one towering problem of 1976 which makes all of the other problems almost unimportant is our situation vis a vis the Soviet Union. Here there is no possibility of misjudgement. 1976 will see a further expansion of Soviet military strength. We will see more Soviet incursion in the non Communist world.

Meanwhile we are reducing our military establishment:we are dismantling our convert apparatus for countering Communist expansion overseas; we are weakening or eliminating our capacity to cope with subversion in the United States.

Vietnam has straken our entire structure for mutual defense. Our allies are now being forced to hedge their bets or will feel the necessity of moving toward greater strength. Like moths to flame, perhaps, but certainly the movement in 1976 will in general be away from Washington and toward Moscow.

The Nixon/Kissinger/Ford policy of Detente may or may not survive 1976. True Detente, which means working toward a reduction of stress and toward a mutual goal of world peace is a concept no one can disagree with.

About the only good thing from our point of view which can be said about Detente was pointed out by Alexandr Solzhenitzyn. Since the Russians are reaping such a rich harvest from Detente there is really no need for them to resort to war to fulfill their long range goals.

Detente is a sell-out of America to the Soviets. Substitute the world appeasement for Detente and clarity emerges.

More and more Americans are coming to realize this and the policy eventually will be junked. Probably Detente will survive 1976 dented but alive.

American business in 1976 can be depended on to underscore Lenin's cynical remark to the effect that "The West will sell us the rope to hang them with." International traders, corporate giants, concerns with the most advanced American technological developments will vie with each other for sales to Moscow. Our banks and financial institutions will expend more and more imaginative efforts to provide the Russianswith favorable credit terms. Some (Please turn to page tz)

1000 E. 3rd St. Santa Ana, Ca. 92?01 (714) 835-5344