A look at lumber

By Fred Hichens* Presid€nt West Coast Lumber Inspectlon Bureau

E)y the time t-, this has gone to print I believe we will have seen the bottom of the market for lumber and a slightlncrease ln '..li prices on some ii: items.

I would expect some moderate upward price adjustments before the first of the year due only to restricted lumber production.

I am not at all optimistic for 1975.

However, I do believe there is a possiblity of a gradual improvement in the price structure as the year progresses. This gradual improvement would be contingent on the federal government taking some affirmative action.

Of definite help would be passage of the Mills-Butzman bill (exempting from tax a portion of interest earned in thrift institutions). We definitely have to get money back into the mortgage market or there is no hope for the lumber industry.

Besides availability of mortgage money we will need public confidence renewed in our economy and our government. These are two very big "ifs" and right now I don't have very much confidence in the ability of Congress or the adrninistration to take real, positive action on our problems.

If Congress and the admistration proceed with a meaningful program I would still predict a poor first half and a mediocre second half for 1975. It they continue on their present course a very poor year for our industry is inevitable.

The need for more, and continued employee training will become more important as the untrained labor pool becomes more available, and unemployment in other fields becomes more acute; meaning more available people, but untrained. The trained clerk is, of course, the greatest asset of this industry.

Management will evaluate total performance using industry research guide lines available to them

To the management that affects such procedure, results are to be much better than management could expect because our research continues to show the future of this industry was never brighter.

Story at a Glance

Future of hardware industrY never brighter .... demandsof inf lation on cash f low and proper merchandise mix are top problems.