F,,RE,,Asr$le +f

Much of '1975, and there after, is up to us.

ey Harold E. Sand Executive Vice-President Georgia-Pacific Corp.

IITith many Y Y building materials merchandisers as well as manufacturers, builders and real estate peo- ple joining forces to meet head-on, the worst part of the housing industry's ills appears to be in the "darkest before dawn" stage.

In fact, after a careful look at what appears ahead, we at Georgia-Pacific already have several new plywood and lumber manufacturing facilities under construction for completions starting fairly early in 1975 and extending into mid-1976. Part of our thinking is that, as we all do the jobs we must do in the interim, housing starts will have moved up to the 1.8 million to 2 million level for conventionals by the end of next year.

Right now is the time to start planning for the upswing. Our talking, thinking and working should be aimed in that direction so we will be prepared to take advantage of opportunities when they arrive. Along this line, our own

"certified dealer" program, in which several thousand retail dealers are already involved, is not only geared to today's marketing problems, but the planning and materials for coming marketing opportunities are already well along.

Although housing money has been an immediate problem, we think the prime rate will drop substantially as next year progresses with money demand for capital goods declining and more funds finding their way into the mortgage market. It now looks like the familiar cycle of housing preceding the general economy up, as well as down, will be followed in the current situation.

In addition to obvious preparation for the coming market, there are other areas in which we can work to help assure a healthier industry in the future.

One area, of course, is the adverse impact of indirect land use controls that is increasing the cost of new residential construction through sometimes overzealous environmental concerns. These have stopped many projects dead in their tracks or sharply elevated costs. Anything that adds to housing costs has a direct adverse effect

Story at a Glance

Worst part of housing industry if f s nearly over 1.8-2 million level for conventional housing starts by end of '75 essential to plan and prepare now for the upswing that is coming.

on the entire industry. Only concerted action can keep this trend within bounds.

Along that same line is the artificial timber shortage that has, in some instances, quadrupled the price of timber to many plywood and lumber mills in the past two years. This obviously is adding to the cost of forest products made from this renewable timber resource, which eventually must replace more and more building products made from nonrenewable resources such as oil, natural gas and metals. Today, a full third of all the nation's timberlands is precluded from sustained growth management (harvest and reforestation) by wilderness setasides, parks, scenic waterways and other special circumstances. Another 18 million acres of federal lands is now in "cold storage" as potential additional wilderness. If such cutbacks in sustained growth of timber continue, the effect on the industry, all the way from manufacturing through retailing, is obvious. Without the help of retailers, and their customers, this situation will continue to grow more serious in future years.

In the meantime we, and others associated with manufacturing and sales of construction materials, are doing what we can to speed the coming upturn by presenting the facts of money requirements and raw material problems of the non-timber-owning companies to the right people, encouraging others in the industry to do the same, and are improving our merchandising help to customers in the interim.

Some hard work along these lines right now will pay off in the months and years ahead.