ROLANDO LUMBER COMPANY Inc.

forncrly CAUFORNTA TUMBER MERC}IANT Merchondiring ond News Leoder since 1922

Pages 8-18 of this issue, as well as page 30, are devoted to The Merchant Magazine's Annual Business Forecast. Within these pages are an indepth look at what a number of leading industry figures see for 197 5.

TWENTY-FOURTH ANNUAL MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE HARDWOOD FLOORING GAINS MORE POPULARITY

MULTIPLE PROBLEMS PLAGUE INSULATION BUSINESS NAWLA 1975 DISTRIBUTION DIRECTORY PUBLISHED

DENVER HOO-HOO CLUB SELECTS NEW 1975 OFFICERS REP. HOSMER BLASTS SIERRA CLUB ACTIVITIES

Publisher A.D. Bell, Jr.

Editor-Manager David Cutler

Contributing }ditor Dwight Curran

Advertising ?roduction Mgr.

Ms- D. Hamil

Ail Director Martha Emery

Stsff Artist Michael Smith

Circulation Marsha Kelley

WESTERN LUMBER AND BUILDING MATERIALS MERCHANT (The Merchant Maeazine) is published' monthly at 45fi)'Camius Dr., srite 476, Newport Beach, Ca. 92660, Phone (7t4) 549-8393 or (714) 549-E394 by California Lumber Merchant. Inc.-Second-class Dostage rates paid at Newport Beach, Ca., ai'd addiiional office!. Advertising rates upon request.

BILLING OFFICES

2030 Union St., San Francisco, Ca. 94123. Phone (415) 346-6000.

ADVERTISING OFFICES

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA & PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Jerrv Holtz. 580 Market St.. #400, San Francisco 94104. Phone @15\3923 365.

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Subscriptions

Change of AddressSend Subscription -orders and address chanses io Circulation Deot.. Western Lumlber & Building Mat6rials Merchant, 4500 Campui Dr., suite 476, Newport Beach. Ca. 92660. Include address label from recent issue ifpossible, plus new address and zip code.

Subscription RatesU.S., Canada, Mexico and Latin America: S5-one year; $8-two years; $l l-three years. Overseas: $7-one vear: $l l-two years. Single copies $1.00. Back copies-$1.50 whdn aviilable.

The Merchant Maqazine serves the members of the: Aiizona Lumber & Builders Supply Assn., Phoenix; Lum- ber MerchairtS Assn. of Northern California. Los Altos: Montana Building Material Dealers Assn., Helena; Mo-untain States Lumber Dealers Assn., Salt Lake City and Denver; Lumber Assn. of Southern California. Los Anseles: Western Building Mateiial Assnl, Olympia, Wa. THE MERCHANT i.r an indenendent maFazine, for Ihe retail. xholesale and dlstributidn leve!s ttJ the lunther and huilding naterial.s indust ry in the ! 3 Western stales. conrcntrotitlg on nterchandising, management and accurale, faclual news reporting and interpretdtion.

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On Peeking Into the Time Tunnel

ELCOME to our Annual Business Forecast Issue with its compilation of exclusive forecasts that begins on the following pages. We are indebted to the top industry men who authored these pieces for their insightful reports on what they see for the 19751976 market.

There is another market factor we would Iike to get into here that has recently appeared on the business scene and is one that holds the potential of having a major effect on lumber, building materials and the other supplier industries to housing. It is the shortage of energy. In the long run, it may have a greater effect on lumber and building materials than does lack of money now or potential population changes over the next 20 years.

Our industry (mostly) is one of derived demand, which means the lumber and building materials firms do not create the demand for their products, they react to outside forces and supply according to the demand created by others. The inherent drawbacks in this can be felt all to painfully today as the industry stumbles along, beset by the lack of mortgage money for housing, its number one market.

Experts now are beginning to say that gas and electric energy shortages (including adequate water and sewage hook-ups), may in 1520 years cause the total number of single family homes built in a year to drop to 200,000. That's right, 200,000. The thesis is that only multiples will be energy efficient enough to meet the local and regional energy codes that will be established for new construction. More multiple dwellings mean less Iumber and building materials, a derived demand situation that could have staggering effects on the amount of materials consumed in the new housing sector.

Don't be too quick to dismiss these concepts as too far out; consider the dramatic and drastic changes ofjust the past 10 years. Because a change is far reaching doesn't mean it won't happen. Or that the hypothesis can't come true that says a decreased number of single family homes will cause a major shrinking of the home fix up market. Additionally, according to a concurrent little horror of a theory, that the public will come to view housing as a machine to perform a function for a limited period of time, the same way an automobile does, and that public interest and spending for their homes, whether singles or multiples will greatly diminish or simply vanish, a victim of changed tastes.

Could it be conjuring up the above nightmares for the long term picture, that in two decades we'll look back on this period as the "good old days?" Could be, stranger things have happened.