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STEPHEN G. FREEXTAN &. CO.

Newport Beoch, Colifornio

Business Forecosl: l97O

A PROJECTION as to what next year 'IL rni11 bring for the wood products industry seems irrevocably tied to recent past events and the changing nature of one of our foremost markets.

Throughout 1969, we have seen some parallels to the 1966 housing decline that resulted from tightening monetary policy by the federal government. The decline of housing starts this year has not been as precipitous as in 1966 nor has commercial money dried up as it did three years ago. Nevertheless, our housing production rate continues to drop and many economists feel that the low point will not be reached until the first quarter of next year. Almost all projections for housing in 1970 predict an upturn though timing differs widely.

A year ago, we were gravely concerned with the adequacy of available timber supply to meet the housing goal ol 26 million housing units over the next ten years. Demand incr eased as did prices ; but by spring of 1969, most everyone in the industry recognized that there was a distinct difierence in the short-term supply needs and the long-term situation. A sharp break in prices ensued in many commodity wood products with the eventual curtailment of production within the industry.

Anothel factor must be considered in our housing potential for next year and beyond. There are dramatic changes taking place right now in the overall o'mix" of housing units. We have seen the proportionate increase of multi-family units as compared to single-family dwellings. The significant advances of the mobile home industry in providing housing units have become a factor. Factory-built or "box" construction is upon us and seems certain to increase its share of the overall market rapidly. Thus, the average footage per housing unit of our industry's product can be expected to decline.

Sfory qf o Glonce

Modest increase should begin this spring . supply and demand could be adversely affected by misreading industry indicators . factory-built housing will continue upswing overall long term outlook is good.

It would seem, therefore, that early 1970 could very well be the low point in housing with a modest increase in activity beginning in the second quarter and continuing on through the year. The "time lug" inherent in housing turnarounds could easily mean next summer to lumber and plywood people and, more importantly, from a lower base than we have at the present time.

Another danger not often mentioned is what I term the sensitivity of our present markets. From all reports, there has been a slowdown of direct mill shipments from that of 1968 and early 1969. Sales through wholesale distribution yards have been very good which indicates that substantial numbers of retailers and consu- mers are reluctant to commit themselves beyond immediate needs. This situation leaves us open to all sorts of things. If week-to-week orders at the consuming level decline, it could be a rapid one. Conversely, this can also lead to spurts of increased activity that could result in dislocations andfor a false reading of our near-term prospects. For example, a rise in prices could provide a psychological lift that would prompt dealers to replenish inventories without a corresponding increase in real demand.

Continued slowdown of housing could well lead to further production cutbacks at the producing level in early 1970. In mid-year, the flexibility of the producers to quickly meet the demand of an upturn in housing might well be impaired, causing prices once more to increase rapidly.

Industrial demand should remain good {or wood produ'cts and will be buoyed by the fact that housing is down. A producer's return on his log does not change in relation to his market and if demand slackens for the construction grades, then there could be shortages of the upper grades simply due to an overall decline in production.

Without doubt, the next decade before us will bring more demand for our wood products because of the tremendous need for housing and the overall growth of the economy. We should have a glimpse of these exciting years by late next summer. Hopefully, our industry can take this current period to prepare for such changes in an orderly fashion.

Business ForeGoSf: 197O

Plywood fooks for market recovery in 1970 industry

BRONSON J. LEWIS

Execulive vice presidenl Americon Plywood Associotion tTtHE PRICE-SUPPLY crisis in thc r spring of 1969. followed by the decline in U.S. housing starts, made this year one of the most difficult in the history o{ the plywood industry. We've twice revised our industry production forecast downward the new estimate is for total plywood sales o{ 14.5 billion sq. ft. at year-end, down considerably from the I.5.6 billion originally predicted in January. new concepts in nrortgage financing that will enable the housing industry to function smoothly even during those periods when it becomes necessary to put on the brakes to stave off inflation.

But in spite of the 1969 sales drop, which is due almost entirely to the weakness of the housing market, the outlook for 1970 and the decade ahead is not bleak.

In October we dedicated a new $1 billion research center for the plywood association in Tacoma, The new laboratories, incorporating sonre of the world's most sophisticated equipment for the testing and development of wood products, will be the springboard for research-oriented promotional prograrns that will help make us Iess dependent on any single market.

Another achievement in 1969 was the establishment o{ American Wood Systems. This affiliate bf the plywood association will provide national engineering, marketing and distribution services for a large family of pre-engineered wood building system6.

Sfory qi q Glonce

Despite a rough 1969, outlook is tinged with optimism that better times are very near . . . extensive assn. work on new markets saved '69 disaster major housing market projects are set for 1970 . demand will spur eventual recovery of housing market.

special atlention in plywood association proframs: o Development of standards for measuring the durability of fire-retardent treated wood will be accelerated. During r o'70, the plywood association will initi- The plywood association's 1970 pro- :: rr, -.- r--- L-,:rr:__.- ^^r^ _^^^_i+i^- lne plywood assoclatron s rviu Prosram will co'cenrrate ;; ,nurt"o itu, ];...jlf:* 1::, o-l].1t:9'.":*^-:"::fl'lt?l :il;

Concentration on product research and market development assisting both public and private low-income housing projerts.

. Increased research into combina' tions of plywood and other materials that provide genuint: low-cost solutions in mass produced factory-built housing. Methods of fastening dissimilar materials will receive particular attention to complement thc work already done on fastening of piywood to melal.

:r '1" '"'i T:1\ '.:1 ,"13:: :1I "l-'h:,-Y' I. sales suclr as row-lncome nousrng ano ap- i' l'oresl Products Laboratory on fireplications in the rapictly ;;;;ir? ii"ia li retardant treated exterior walls' transportation. W"iu" 'been "grJatly en- . Accelerated support of the fast'grow' "ou."g".l by the growing stren-gih of our ing mobile home industry, whigh h3. nerv riarkets in ge-neral indr.rt.i-al applica- workeC closely with the association's tech' tions and agricuiure. Without these mark- nical services division in the development (.ts our l9Z9 sales picture would have of plywood structural floor systems for been very much worse. mobile homes.

In looking at the next decade, we're en- o The plywood association will launch couraged also by the realization that the studies to evaluate more completely the Early in 1970, it is my intention to pro- -.heer weight of public demand will spur cost of the more important plywood uses pose to the {orest industry the formation an eventual recovery in housing. The de- in housing. This is vital because of the of a permanent long range Housing Sup- mand for our products may well be ex- dearth of information on in-place costs of ply Coordinating Committee. We need to plosive. We'll meet it by leading technical present rysiems. put the combined talents o{ our industry innovation and market development in The outlook for 1970, then, is tinged professionals and the best outside low-income housing, with concepts and with optimism that better times may be financial brains in the country together systems {or site-built, industrialized and just around the cornerand with awareto work on a continuing legislative pro- mobile homes. ness that if volume is to be increased. gram. This program would have as its During 1970, five key areas of the changing market conditions must be'antimain objective the development of entirely housing market will be singled out for cipated and new rrlarkets created.