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A look Towords the 70s tlnd 80s

FURTHER inside this issue, you'll find exclusive r business forecasts for 1969 by some of the most knowledgeable sources in the industry. Included are looks ahead by the California Redwood Association, Western Wood Products Association, American Plywood Association and the Red Cedar Shingle and Hand Split Shake Bureau. Other forecasts in news story form are scattered throughout tle magazine.

But on this page, we want you to let your imagination do a little foreoasting. Let your mind gather up some of the pieces of the present scene and see if we can't take a look at what you may be selling in the mid I970s and 80s.

What we are thinking of, and you should pardon the expression, are the so-called substitute materials. Lately it seems the amount of information on houses being built in whole or in part from nonstandard and unusual materials is accelerating. While it is still too early to tell, it seems that all the present activity must mean a different flrture for all building materials.

The Midwest Applied Science Corp. has filed for patents on a construction method that produces four inch thick walls from a fast hardenine foam. It's claimed it can be made from a mold irounted on a truck, thus making it a job site item. The firm claims its strength exceeds concrete while its cost ($3.80 per sq. ft.) is far less than steel or concrete block.

Other firms plan to build houses out of factory produced molded fiberglass panels that can be bolted or glued together during building or used later for repairs or remodeling. It is projected that the panels can be produced both rapidly and inexpensively.

All these processes, and we are sure they will come more and more frequently, lead us inevitably towards the old dream of building homes quickly and cheaply from panels or what have you that are of chemical origin.

What it all looks like from our vantage point here in the late 60s, is that with the probable shortage of lumber (see Thc Merchant, Sept, p. 4) the one time lumber dealer, who now sells such an amazingly wide variety of items, had better get ready for some really far out inventory in the 1970s and B0s.

We are the first to agree that "a bulky slurry of polyester resins combined rwith chopped fibers," can hardly compare with the look, feel and smell of a well-cut timber.

But if you can't get enough timbers, and you can sell lots oI polyester or foem or what have you at an honest profit, it is going to be pretty tough to turn down.

Judging from some of the predictions we heard at the excellent LASC convention (see page I0) perhaps some or even many of the materials and items you will be selling are yet uninvented.

If you think change won't touch you, just think back to the early fifties. So recent, yet forever out of touch by the avalanche of change since then. We'll bet the next fifteen years will see even more.

Let's wish ourselves luck, we think we will all need it.

Bellwood spells it like it is..,

A B C DI'E F G H I J K t M f{ o P a R S T U v w X Y Z

*D iS fOf D-E-P-E.N-D-A-B-I.L-I-T-Y

That's one way of spelling "uniform quality"-another way of spetling "prompt delirrcries." Everybody makes such claims. At Bellwood we back them up. Ouality? We build our doors with the widest stiles, widest rails in the industry-and we make them from the finest West Coast lumber, the best veneers available. And we control that quality at every step. Deliveries? From our own railroad spur, by "piSSyback" (or by truck), in car lots or less, we can reach you anywhere in less than a week.

And that's Bellwood Dependability. any way you spell it.

THE BELLWOOD COMPANY / 533 West Gollins I Orange, California 92669

GUARANTEE Bellwood Doors are fully guarEnteod by the Bellwood Company of Celifornia, as sat forth in the Standard Door Guarantge of the National Woodwork Manufacturerc Association. They meet or exceed th€ specifications set forth in Commersial StEndard CS 171 -58 for Solid-core and Hollow- core doors. B[1]W00Di[00n$ MADE IN ORANGE, CALIFORNIA

iEUS'NESS FORECASI: T 969

1969 - a year for risks and opportunity

by Jomes R. Turnbull Exec, vp. Americon Plywood A,ssociofion

66\T/ITH THE PLYWOOD industry opYY erating in a healthy marke! we at - the American Plywood Association see 1969 as a good year for experiments in areas where we couldn't afiord the risk beforg" James R. Turnbull, executive vice president of the American Plywood Association, told T h,e M erchant Magazine.

''We see 1969 as a year in which we can begin to build new foundations for the kind of promotion that can give us a long range pay-ofi."

"For example: The basic promotional tools that enabled us to win an immediate ' sales response in pallet bins were developed several years ahead of the time this market exploded. So in 1969 we'll be attempting to explore some new areas in both construction and industrial uses that can pay ofi '' over the long term in exactly the same wayr" he said.

Turnbull referred to the federal government's call for 6 million new and rehabilitated housing units for low and middle income groups over the next ten years.

o'There's no doubt about it, we are in a better position to do something about low and middle income housing than any other business I know," he said.

"Whether it's more sirrgle family units per acre or stacking prefab modules three and four units high, we will be ready with the information and the engineering industry needs to move toward the government's new housing goals.

Story q] q Glonce

ttFor example, one of our men was selected on the basis of our res€arch experience to serve on the development team organized by Westinghouse for the In-City Experimental Housing Research Program, sponsored by the Department of Housing and Urban Development

'oKaiser won the first contract. But make no mistake. The government will be using material developed by all four of the competing bidders and some of the most practical systems proposed were based on wd frame and plywood construction," Turnbull observed.

Containerization continues as a major association interest and Turnbull predicted new developments in the year to come.

'oWe are already testing prototype plywood truck-trailer and truck bodies. We are even evaluating a plywood rail car. W'e are working on developments in aircraft containers. too.

In total resiCential construction. Turn- bull said he expected sales of l\/n billion sq. ft. in 1969, or some 5 percent more than expected for 1968. o'We probably will sell 1.5 billion feet more than we did in 1967. That means. record industry sales of 14.5 billion sq. ft.

General construction use, he predicted, should rise to l.B billion feet. Industrial use should increase to 3.08 billion, agricultural uses should climb to 710 million, and over-the-counter sales should increase to I.76 billion feet.

Out of the residential oonstruction total, roof sheathing and subflooring will continue to be the biggest markets," Turnbull said. Roof sheathing sales should increase to about 2.35 billion feet, up 7 percent over expected sales this year. Subflooring sales should go to 1.05 billion, up 5 percent.

Furthermore, the industry hopes to see an increase in siding consumption from 400 million sq. ft. to 450 million in the year, or 12.5 percent, he said.

The association generally sees a steady? firm inciease for most of its markets, and for the wood products industry.

"You may remember that last October I predicted that this industry would sell 14 billion sq. ft. of plywood in 1968. We are heading for the biggest yearly increase in sales in the history of this business.

"And I predict we'll do even better than that next year. We ought to sell l5.I billion feet in 1969. And we may do better if we can get the logs."