Gan western lumber meet the demand?

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for lumber in 1993 as the U.S. economy continues in a slow recovery, but some wonder if western mills will be able to satisfy the demand.

"Yes," is the response from the Western Wood Products Association. The region expects to remain the major U.S. lumber supplier, providing over a third of the demand.

Western mills should provide 367o of the lumber used in the U.S. next year despite a projected 2.l%o prodlction drop. Tbe 12 western states are forecast to produce 18.21 billion board feet.

Production in the South, by comparison, is predicted to increase 6.17o to 14.& billion feet. Lumber imports, mostly from Canada, should increase 8.87o to 14.35 billion feet.

"1993 will mark the third straight year westem mills will see production decline due to timber supply problems," noted association president Robert H. Hunt. "The reasons for the guarded western outlook continue to be resource base( with no immediate solution on the horizon."

Yet even with questions about timber supply, Hunt said western mills can be counted on as chief lumber suppliers.

"The constant resource lock-ups and new endangered and threatened species announcements by the courts have lately led to a perception on the part of some of our customers that we don't have products for sale," he said. "However, the West will continue to supply a major share of the lumber used in 193. If the industry ever gets some relief on its many log supply problems, you can expect a good fight from western mills to take back some of the market share."

WWPA estimated U.S. demand for lumber should increase by 3.5Vo in 1993, reaching 46.24 billion board feet. This would be the highest since 1989, when 48 billion board feet was used.

Housing will be the top market for lumber in 1993, with 16.03 billion board feet expected to be used in residential construction. That volume is

4.3Vo higher than expecred 1992 totals.

Housing starts for 1993 are forecast at 1.25 million, a7.8Vo increase from this year's projected 1.16 million starts. Single family homes should continue to dominate housing. A record 84Vo of housing starts are expected to be single family homes this year. That sharc should dropjust slightly in 1993. Single family homes increase lumber consumption, using more lumber than multi-family units with an average of more than 14,000 board feet of lumber per home.

After growing to the largest market by volume in 1990 and 1991, repair and remodeling should slip back into the No. 2 position n 1992 and 1993. Lumber use in this market is forecast to increase 3Vo to 14.86 billion feet next year, representing 32Vo of the lumber used.

Story at a Glance

West can supply 36% of U.S. lumbErdemand in 1993

...Southern and Ganadian mills may fill void log sup- ply relief could increase anticipated production of 14.86 billion feet.

Other construction, mostly office, retail and hotel sfuctures, is predicted to increase by 3.2Vo to 7.12 billion feet. Lunber used in materials handling should increase by 3.2Vo to 4.2 billion feet. The "all other" category, at 4 billion feet, accounts for the balance of U.S. consumption. Exports in 1992 should totaI2.65 billion, down 7.4Vo from the previous year. Exports in 1993 are forecast at 2.7 billion. a l.9Vo ncre?f;e.

Commenting on price, Hunt said prices for lumber have increased modestly since last spring, but when adjusted for inflation and in comparison [o non-wood products "the price of lumber is still a great bargain."