Western timber shortage: fact or fiction?

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n EPRESSED markets fol timber l/products have delayed the impending timber shortage resulting from environmental issues in general and the listing of the spotted owl as a threatened species in particular. As a result, customers of lumber and plywood mills in the Pacific Northwest are uncertain whether the predicted timber shortage is real or just so much sales propaganda.

The timber supply from public lands is shrinking because the land base for growing timber is being sharply reduced. The Draft and/or Final Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) prepared by the U.S. Forest Service for all Westside National Forests and BLM lands called for setting aside vast areas for the northern spotted owl. In addition, they imposed numerous other limitations on the remaining land, restricting the practice of fores0ry and the growing of tees.

When the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed the spotted owl as a threatened species in June 1990, the

Forest Service's environmental impact statements immediately became obsolete. The listing resulted in even more timberlands being placed off limits for the growing and harvesting of timber. This year, further aggressive action by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service required the setting aside of additional new areas of land for the spotted owl.

These areas, equivalent to the states of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware, are much larger than we ever thought possible just six months ago. Additional lmpacts are occurring because of environmental litigation limiting foresiry activities in areas not involving the spotted owl.

Clearly, biologists are assuming almost total dominance in the programs of all the resource agencies. This development, as well as the complete absence of economic or sociological considerations by the government in both legislative and administrative branches, has further exacerbated the timber supply problem. [t's important to realize that the Western Oregon,

Western Washington and Northern California lands affected by these decisions are some of the most productive timberlands in the world.

The timber supply in the five-state area of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana and California is a combination of pdvate and public ownerships. Large indusuial ownerships con[ibute the majority of the private timber to both the industry and to the log export markets. Public timber ownership in the Pacific Northwest is dominated by the federal government, which for over 25 years has provided more than 50Vo of the timber harvest in Oregon and over lTVo of the timber harvest in Washington. In 1990, that harvest dropped to MVo and l4%o respectively. In the states of ldaho, Montana and California, the federal timber harvest ranged between 4OVo and 507o during the same period.

When we remove the volume of logs exported fi'om private lands from this data, we find that Oregon mills have obtained approximately 60Vo of their timber from federal lands; Washington, over 3OVo. In ldaho, Montana and California log exports ate at a minimum and the timber dependency equals 40-507o, which is the percent of federal timber actually harvested. In the five-state area, the mills have had a 48Vo dependency on federal timber in normal times. In the depressed year of 1990, this dropped 39Vo, the lowest in 25 years with the exception of the recession of 1982.

The decline of volume under contract on federal lands has accelerated in l99l and will continue into 1992 because of the continued decline in timber offerings. Mor€over, not only do we have a decline in volume of timber under conu'act, we also have a major decline in the harvest, which indicates an even greater supply problem in the near future.

Continued appeals and lawsuits designed to halt both existing and new timber sales are being used by opponents of timber harvest to disrupt the already limited sales program. In May 1991, the Seattle Audubon Society prevailed in the case litigated before Judge Dwyer in the District Court in Seattle. As a result, the Westside National Forests in Oregon and Washington and the four Northem California

Productton

National Forcsts had their fiscal year l99l and fiscal year 1992 timber sale programs destroyed. They will offer only lO-2UVo of the planned timber sale programs for l99l and 1992.

Whereas nine months ago, we estimated a 75Vo pertormance level of the congressionally authorized timber sale program for all of Region 6 (Oregon and Washington), we now estimate a performance level below 40Vo for l99l and 1992. This constitutes a further disaster for mills and their surrounding communities.

The West's privately owned timber can compensate very little, if at all, to offset this reduced federal timber supply. Private timberlands are being placed under new environmental pressures that may, in the long run, significantly reduce their productive capabilities.

This year and next year arc clearly "crunch time" for our indusFy in the Pacific Northwest. Because poor markets have curtailed log usage at the mills, the timber inventories have been maintained at higher levels than would have been the case in a notmal malket. There is, however, nothing on the horizon to break the final freefall of the federal timber volume available to western mills. Harvest levels have continued to exceed the volume offered for sale. Consequently, we foresee more curtailments and closurcs of mills depending on federal timber in the immediate future.

Story at a Glance

Overvlew of tlmber supply in the Paciflc Northwest ...why envaronmental chaF lenges are shrlnklng inventorles, harvest and sales ...more mlll closures... no way to flll the vold at present.

The forest products industry and timber dependent communities in the West are bearing the brunt of the unwise and uncontrolled decisions being made by Congress and the government bureaucracy.

Currently, the forest products industry in the Pacific Northwest is going thlough the most traumatic penod

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