ltrA [D@\n/s & tr v[@\ rs

HARRY MENDENHATT executive vice president Lumber Merchonls Associqtion of Northern Cqlifornio 11146 El Contac lol, Sult 0 lor Allg, Callf.9&22 (4t51 94t.t6t7

[tOR the last eighteen months most ^ of you have prospered and enjoyed a period when our industry was on the rise. Many have stated that the boom would die out and the inevitable slump would follow. It is and it will!

Planned housing starts would have held strong into the fall of 19?2; however, the critical shortage of wood products has caused many starts to fade out before they began. A definite slowing of business has been noted by most dealers throughout the association area.

You, as dealers, are now faced with a choice. Either you sit back and ride with the slump and hope that in a couple of years business will pick up once again, or you can plan your next yeay's operations, marketing, and merchandising now-and get busy with your plans.

Keep in mind that in the past two years an estimated 5 million housing units have been built. Hbw many families do you know that are satisfied with the appearance and condition of their home ? No one ever is.

With 5 million new homes constructed, what is the need of the occupant for paneling, carpeting, closets, cabinets, better fixtures, patios, patio accessories, lawn and garden equipment, shrubs and flower€. The requirements of this gEoup alone are of major significance to our industry but yet the element of the older homes is still there. Remodeling is on the rise and will gain in importance since the eost of new homes is excessive.

There will be an apparent lull in business prior to the Christmas Beason. Wouldn't this be an ideal time to re&rrange your layout and merchand,ising to prepare for those holiday sales. After the holidays what are your plans ?

Are you going to captune your share of the do-it-yours€lf market which will no doubt be your strongest sales until summer construction starts. Have you planned your promotions and sales and planned inventories accordingly?

Most of you are still busy (at least that is the excuse you give when asked to attend committee, board, and training meetings) but busy or not, you can't wait rurtil January to plan your February sales. At this time of year you should have your 1973 calenda,r blocked out with your 19?3 rnajor events.

Don't corurt on the housing starts to continue at the present pace d:uring 1973. Government money is being diverted to municipal construction (city building, libraries, and other city and county structures). Factory expa.nsion and new construction will rise sharlply in 1973. Town houses, condominiums, and garden apartments will decline. \trhere,will you fit in? A need for single family dwellings still exists and will probably be the dominating factor in family housing if open space arguments imposed by the state are satisfied.