&wk,m effi wffiw

increase somewhat, but demand for sawtimber, pulp and fiber boards will increase faster. Already, recent real price increases suggest some economic scarcity of hardwood timber, and the RPA assessment projects real hardwood sawtimber prices to almost double in a couple of decades. Although recent price increases exceeding l07o per year are unlikely to continue in the long run, the projections indicate that hardwood prices in the South still could rise up to 4Vo per year for a couple of decades, which is extraordinary. Imports and substitutes would tend to reduce these price appreciation rates, but relative scarcity will still prevail.

We still have huge inventories of hardwoods in the U.S. While many are in wetlands, on steep slopes, in strips or urban areas, or of poor form or quality, the sheer volume alone can make up for some of these inaccessible trees. The inventories will continue to increase for a decade or so, as will the average tree size and volume per acre. This, coupled with improved hardwood processing technology in solid wood and pulpwood products, will make stands that currently seem unmerchantable more profi table.

Unless markedly more stringent environmental regulations effectively stop timber harvesting on Private lands, the large hardwood inventory base can help prevent the continuation of the substantial price increases seen in the last decade. Market forces combined with moderate environmental protection measures can help us find the middle ground between abundance and scarcity-modest real Price increases and adequate hardwood timber supplies in the future.